Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[House_of_Dahl]

I just want to avoid Port

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I'd rather finish fourth than third this year

It’s looking the better position.

 

[Dogs Rule]

It’s looking the better position.

And the most likely.

 

[FoochPackage]

If freo lose today. Then we win out. We are a lock for top 4. Give us something essendon ffs.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

If freo lose today. Then we win out. We are a lock for top 4. Give us something essendon ffs.

No. If Freo lose today and then win out we’ll still be behind them.

 

[bobs head soup]

I'd rather finish fourth than third this year

If you finish 3rd/4th, you'd probably rather the hardest opponent in week 1 while you've got the second chance.

If results go to expectations (home teams win) the team you avoid week 1 you meet in a prelim.

 

[CarnTheScray]

I'd rather finish fourth than third this year

I’d rather finish higher and beat Brisbane.

 

[Golden_6]

Completed ladder predictor…

Win our last 3 and we’re a realistic chance to finish 3rd. 4th at worst.

Lose 1 and I can’t see us finishing lower than 6th.

I’d cop a loss leading in to finals. Going in 7-0 with 3 to 4 more games to win makes me nervous.

Recent history has shown you don’t need a loss.

Geelong 2022 - 16-0 to finish the season.
Melbourne 2021 - 8-0 to finish the season.

We would have to go 10-0 if we want to win a flag from here but this shows it’s not the worst thing.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

If freo lose today. Then we win out. We are a lock for top 4. Give us something essendon ffs.

I reckon we still do because Carlton lost. Geelong I don’t think will stay in, will lose to Freo next week. Freo losing is good too but there’s a few paths now.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

True. And if Freo loses today it means we will jump the loser of the Rd 24 match between Freo and Port. If we win out.

 

[grassman75]

Dare I say it, but injuries to any of those clubs in the hunt for the finals could be a big factor that will upset many of the ladder predictor forecasts.

For instance ...

Poor old Sydney's having a shocking run with injuries at the moment and it's the only reason we scraped over the line against them yesterday in a result that few would have predicted.

Thank goodness we haven't had any injury worries all year.

Don’t forget Sydney being unfairly treated by umpires too DW

 

[grassman75]

Win our next two and we’re likely locked in the top 8 and potentially playing for top 4 in the last round. Huge chance in front of us now.

Would be nice to be playing for top 4 instead of 8th

And this time it shouldn’t come down to % like in 21 when we dropped to 5th

 

[grassman75]

Hawks, Lions are the two teams I want to avoid in the finals if possible. I said last year I feel the Hawks could become our next bogey side, and I still stand by it. Lions are in hot form like us, have had impressive wins away vs us and Port, and topped Sydney. But in between have been one or two goal wins vs ordinary teams. So still hard to get a finger on how good exactly. Obviously the less teams that match up well on us, the better. Hawks will need an upset win vs Giants away or the Blues to sneak in.

Hawks are already our bogey side….

 

[grassman75]

Surely we are not worried about Brisbane. They have no second or third tall defenders.

Lucky to beat Sydney when they had only 2 on the the bench couple of weeks ago.

Port and Hawks have the midfields that I would be worried about.

And when we played Bris, we were missing Most of our forward line IIRC

 

[Scott Tracy]

I think at this stage we just have to keep focus on winning and let the other results happen around us. We probably won't know what we're playing for until the final round.

Its strange being three rounds away from the end of the season and not knowing whether you'll end up 3rd or 10th.

 

[grassman75]

I just want to avoid Port

Remember we lost Naughts very early in that game and also lost JOD

Lots went against….im not afraid of them…massive front runners

 

[TiAn_]

I think at this stage we just have to keep focus on winning and let the other results happen around us. We probably won't know what we're playing for until the final round.

Its strange being three rounds away from the end of the season and not knowing whether you'll end up 3rd or 10th.

It is strange, but an Improvement on not knowing if we’ll finish 8th or 10th.

 

[FoochPackage]

No. If Freo lose today and then win out we’ll still be behind them

True. And if Freo loses today it means we will jump the loser of the Rd 24 match between Freo and Port. If we win out.

We got there in the end.

 

[Sentinel]

Great season to have a strong % in, given how even the W-L is for so many teams in the 8.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Great season to have a strong % in, given how even the W-L is for so many teams in the 8.

Lions & Freo draws makes it a bit harder for 1-3 spots.

 

[stevieg1969]

Remember we lost Naughts very early in that game and also lost JOD

Lots went against….im not afraid of them…massive front runners

No L Jones and Cody too. But our mids got smashed. PA are perennial final no-shows - and it would be good to shut Chad’s brother up…..again!

 

[Doggy]

Let's concentrate on moving up one place per week

 

[X_box_X]

Recent history has shown you don’t need a loss.

Geelong 2022 - 16-0 to finish the season.
Melbourne 2021 - 8-0 to finish the season.

We would have to go 10-0 if we want to win a flag from here but this shows it’s not the worst thing.

Plenty of examples.

Carlton and Brisbane (1995 and 2001) both replicated Geelong's 2022 achievement of winning their final 16 games.

Everyone gets scared by this because of what happened to the Saints in 1997 and Cats in 2008.. we've been hearing it for years but teams continue to show it's a myth.

In 2009 many were saying the Saints needed a loss after they started 19-0. They had two losses in rounds 20 and 21 with those same people saying they were the losses they needed to have. How did that work out for them?

 

[_Cerberus_]

Hawks are already our bogey side….

Not quite yet. Bogey really means haven't beaten them for a few games stretch over a small handful of years, not talking about forever across history. Currently they are only on a two game winning streak. But if they with the next 3 or 4. Or we only manage to beat them once in like 10 games, then definitely.

I made the comment initially after we lost to them last year and predicted they could be our next bogey side. Just something about the way that they play, that matches up well with us. So was not surprised when we lost to them this year.

Confident that the Demons and Cats being a thorn in our side is done for at least for now.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Have re-done my ladder predictor.

Beating Ade and Roos, I have us finishing 4th if we beat GWS, 6th if we lose. Playing Carlton in the first final.