Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Doggy]

Not sure why we are favourites vs GWS

They are where they are on the ladder for a reason, they have beaten us in Ballarat and was only a week ago we put in a shocker vs Adelaide, they were a kick a way from a GF last year and GWS travels okay

Because we're at home and they've fallen over the line a lot.

 

[Dog 36]

Because we're at home and they've fallen over the line a lot.

I don’t see Ballarat as home

Do you think we were a better chance to win at Marvel or Ballarat ?

 

[Doggy]

I don’t see Ballarat as home

Do you think we were a better chance to win at Marvel or Ballarat ?

Play there more than everyone else.

The Dawks think Tasmania is home

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I don’t see Ballarat as home

Do you think we were a better chance to win at Marvel or Ballarat ?

I think GWS play the faster deck at Marvel better than what they will play at Ballarat imo

 

[revo333]

Despite the excellent form the last couple of months, its just mind boggling this team has to beat the 3rd place side to secure a top 8 spot.

It really has glossed over how bad we were in the first half of the season.

Though it would be a weird feeling not playing finals in a season where we smashed Sydney and Geelong at their ground.

 

[Claudonious]

That’s what happens when you butcher the first half of the season

The “home” game against the cats which we lost by 4 points has cost us big time.Losing to the bombers was the bad one though.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TiAn_]

The “home” game against the cats which we lost by 4 points has cost us big time.Losing to the bombers was the bad one though.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

The Cats game is the one. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Bont, Libba and Treloar have bigger games at the same time and we bottled it.

 

[go_sports_team]

Treacy ruled out of Port clash

May help us on Sunday if we lose to GWS.

 

[MYOB]

McGovern may be out for Carlton as well

 

[Golden_6]

McGovern may be out for Carlton as well

Wish it was Kemp instead. I had no idea how Carlton were going to score and Kemp came in and looked like Curnow.

Battle & Wilkie will be a significantly tougher test than the insipid WCE defence.

 

[Doggy]

Wish it was Kemp instead. I had no idea how Carlton were going to score and Kemp came in and looked like Curnow.

Battle & Wilkie will be a significantly tougher test than the insipid WCE defence.

They might have Charlie and McKay back

 

[Golden_6]

They might have Charlie and McKay back

They might be back because they’re desperate but neither will be healthy and wouldn’t play any other week.

 

[bobs head soup]

Interesting to note that we've finished the season with a 120+% 5 times since 1955.

Hopefully this year makes 6, we're at 123.8 with a game left.

Those years were 1985, 1992, 2009, 2010 and 2021.

In every one of those years we have progressed at least as far as a PF.

 

[JohnnySteel]

If we lose, it’s going to be one long Sunday…

Please no.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[stefoid]

Not sure why we are favourites vs GWS

They are where they are on the ladder for a reason, they have beaten us in Ballarat and was only a week ago we put in a shocker vs Adelaide, they were a kick a way from a GF last year and GWS travels okay

We'll win because we have to. If we cant beat GWS with a pretty much full list to choose from and everything on the line, then theres no point in making the finals anyway

 

[_Mike_]

Squiggle now says this

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

#3 in total disposals
#3 in total marks
+4 Free kick differential
#7 for CP
#4 for UP
2nd last for turnovers conceded

 

[Sentinel]

Squiggle now says this


View attachment 2087235

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

#3 in total disposals
#3 in total marks
+4 Free kick differential
#7 for CP
#4 for UP
2nd last for turnovers conceded

And yet we're still playing for a spot in finals this weekend

 

[Bulldogs85]

If we lose, it’s going to be one long Sunday…

Please no.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I live behind a national park so I will be going for a nice long walk if we lose

 

[Pugz89]

And yet we're still playing for a spot in finals this weekend

That's by far the most frustrating aspect. And it happens literally every year.

 

[fargy]

I feel our best is just about the best in the comp, and there are a few metrics are showing that. Most teams seem to have a decent gap between their best and worst, and we are no exception, we just may be more prone to one of those games (hence our ladder position). That’s the biggest concern both this week, and for finals.

 

[_Mike_]

And yet we're still playing for a spot in finals this weekend

 

[hutchy31]

I’m pretty frustrated that we’re not in yet, seems ludicrous that 13 wins and a percentage over 120 could still miss. But win and we’re in during the most open finals series in a while. Should be interesting.

 

[X_box_X]

Squiggle now says this


View attachment 2087235

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

#3 in total disposals
#3 in total marks
+4 Free kick differential
#7 for CP
#4 for UP
2nd last for turnovers conceded

I'd like to think this is a completely impartial view.

We are expected to win. In fact, we are considered a 63% chance of winning according to a recent study conducted by students at RMIT. This alone terrifies me.

I've been somewhat estranged from footy since the third quarter of our match against Adelaide. While I definitely considered the possibility of us losing that match, I wasn't expecting us to rock up with the mindset a lot of our players had. It was so bizarre and gut wrenching to see so many Adelaide players easily breaking our tackles. It was un-Bulldog like and recent form would prove that was an anomaly. We pride ourself on defence and that starts in the contest. We are usually elite in this category but for whatever reason some of our players didn't rock up with the mindset they usually do. It's actually amazing to think we still had more scoring shots than Adelaide.

This may sound really bizarre considering we lost by 40 points, but if we brought our usual mindset and converted at even 50% (I.e. 13.14 instead of 9.18), we'd have easily won that game. Yes, Adelaide kicked 17.9 but I lost count how many of those goals came from their players easily breaking tackles we'd normally stick.

I don't know if my opinion was shared by others because I refused to read the review thread of that game.

Anyway, with that said, why are we expected to beat GWS this weekend?

I'm trying to rationalise why so many outsiders are pumping us up. Even though I've tried to escape the media talk over the past 11 days, it has found a way to expose me to it. I've heard numerous pundits say we're as good a chance as anyone. The post I've quoted is one of several graphs / opinion pieces I've been exposed to. Daniel Coyne from Champion Data says we're ranked 1st and 2nd in a couple of turnover to score stats (both for attack and defence) which he basically says is almost unprecedented.

I think for me to try to accept why we should be one of the main premiership fancies, we need to travel back to 2023. It's very easy to say we underachieved last year and most people weren't expecting us to make the eight this year. Now a lot are saying we are as big a premiership threat as anyone...

When I think back to 2023, it's possible we could have been as good as anyone if we didn't surrender so many of our leads.

Rd 23: We lost to WCE after leading at ¾ time by nine pts.
Rd 22: We lost to Hawthorn after leading by 20 pts during the second qtr.
Rd 20: We lost to GWS after leading by 33 pts.
Rd 18: We lost to Sydney after leading by 19 pts at ¼ time and leading by 3 pts at ¾ time.
Rd 17: We lost to Collingwood after leading at ½ time.
Rd 12: We lost to Geelong after leading at ½ time.
Rd 11: We lost to GCS after leading 20-0.
Rd 5: We lost to PA after leading at ¾ time.

Even if we win 4 of those 8 (still an average result considering), we'd have finished equal with Melbourne in fourth spot.

We are CLEARLY a lot fitter this season. We aren't giving up leads like we did last season. Is this a coincidence? I don't believe it is.

We've done well to rectify one of our weaknesses from last season. So most of it was already there.

In the match GWS beat us last year @ Ballarat, we had a commanding lead but we were hurt by in game injuries. That was just unlucky. We've improved since then.

Importantly, we smashed them earlier this year. It should have been a 10+ goal victory.

If we come with the right mindset, we SHOULD win this. Goal kicking accuracy could be our undoing, though.

 

[Libbaaaa]

All about the start, we have to come out firing, we have form doing that in Ballarat in the past.

 

[F6Typhoon]

Not usually an advocate of the Guardian but this article is spot on and coincidentally exactly my words (“good or bad Dogs”) after the first 5 or 10 minutes of play each week!

From the Pocket: Western Bulldogs face up to unholy trinity with destiny in their own hands

The unpredictable Bulldogs have the coach, talent and firepower to be among the AFL premiership threats but are still to lock in a finals spot

www.theguardian.com