List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[Chris_6678]

Sounds like Fox been reading BF haha

Dees ‘open’ to AFL trade bombshell... and it could shake up race for No.1 pick: Whispers

Dees ‘open’ to AFL trade bombshell... and it could shake up race for No.1 pick: Whispers

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Keys]

It was covered much better just now on gettable.



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Just listened to it. Much better interview as it addressed the main issues far better. They forgot to ask about Culley though

Full Rohan Interview here

Thanks for the link

Really liked that interview. For the most part gave the answers you’d hope for

I particularly like that we’re not setting a price on pick 1 nor completely ruling out trading it. Essentially letting clubs know it’s there if you get keen enough but it’ll be incumbent on them to put together an irresistible offer

We can then shift the goal posts as often as we like because we’ve not given them a set target. In relation to draft picks he said the more R1 picks the better but you also want to be closer to the pointy end as much as possible. Confident that we aren’t going to throw it away

I also liked that whilst saying he’d prefer to reach a deal the PSD option was there

He also seemed more optimistic re Robertson than I expected

 

[BartBart]

My preference is to just take Reid, but all the talk has got me thinking about what a realistic trade for pick 1 would look like, so I decided to theorise how it might play out.

Made a couple assumptions while cobbling this together, namely:
-North DO NOT get band 1 compo for Mckay
-North trade for Gold Coast's 1st rounder with some assortment of their priority picks and natural draft hand/s
-We don't trade any of our picks 1, 20, or 34 for players
-All 3 GC academy players get matched in the 1st round, specifically at: 1-2 (Walters), 3-6 (Read), 10-16 (Rogers)

So here goes:
WCE
In: 2(3), 5(6), 14(17), Future 2nd
Out: 1, 20(23), 34(?)
NTH
In: 1, 20(23), 34(?)
Out: 2(3), 5(6), 14(17), Future 2nd

With this, we would go into the draft holding picks 2,5,14,39,53,58 and in 2024 F1, F2, F2 (NTH), F3, F4

To me it's not ideal but so think it's what seems realistic if trading is actually on the table. With that had a possible draft, accounting for the whispers and current rankings may be:
2(3)- Curtin or Mckercher
5(7)- Curtin, Mckercher, Sanders, or Duursma
14(17)- De Mattia, McCabe,Murphy or Leake
39(?)- Edwards, Hall, Lual, (slider)

Could potentially trade back in with Norths 2nd if Collard is still available and we're keen.

Dissecting the trade further, I feel like it can be viewed in three parts, like this:
1->2+5
20->14
34->F2
So it would essentially constitute one direct trade and two pick upgrades.

Still prefer to go with Reid, but interested to hear thoughts on this proposal. Result may end up being:
Mckercher
Curtin
Murphy
~21-25 next year
vs
H. Reid
A. Reid
Hastie
(Based on current rankings plus a little of my preferences)

Bit of a ramble-y post, but any thoughts/comments?

You could probably add in assumptions of:

Croft (WB) 10->15
McCabe (Haw) 15->20
Cleary (Syd) 20->25

Pushing down 1st round picks.

View attachment 1820754

Or JTR for short.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

Just saw the article on AFL site and Jackson hateley should be one we look to train on as a SSP . We lack inside mids and at worse he could play for the beagles .

His knocks are he only plays inside mid well , once paced and not damaging by foot .

But seems to be a big unit who likes the tough inside work, tackles well and can rack up possessions.

Could be that cheap option to protect the kids for a few years

 

[Agent93]

Yeah I'd trade pick 1 for picks 2, 3, 14, and 19

I'd even chuck in pick 20 going back.

 

[DJMac]

It is John Ralph so reader beware. HUN are reporting a nuance in the FA rules which is likely to help Norf get pick 3

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/news/afl-trade-2023-the-age-threshold-set-to-guarantee-north-firstround-compensation-for-ben-mckay/news-story/fa6825f0a69db670b140360343cdacf4

Ben McKay’s December birth date as the baby of his draft class will deliver North Melbourne a huge advantage in securing first-round compensation for the departing free agent. Essendon on Monday had been uncertain whether their offer for Roos interceptor McKay would be big enough to secure that coveted first-round pick.

The Essendon offer of at least five years is less than $800,000 a season in guaranteed money, with the Dons uncertain about the threshold for first-round compensation.

If the compensation did not reach that first-round marker, the Roos had made public their determination to match the free agency offer and retain McKay.

But this masthead can reveal the age of a departing free agent is a critical element in deciding what compensation their club receives.

As a player born on December 24, 1997 (with twin Harry), McKay fits into the window as a 25-year-old departing free agent by less than two months on the league’s October 31 cut-off.

Under the AFL’s formula, a 25-year-old free agent requires a lesser salary to tick off first-round compensation than a 26-year-old or even 27-year-old.

So, as a 25-year-old, a guaranteed contract of $775,000 might be enough to tick off first-round compensation, whereas for a 26-year-old that threshold might have been $800,000 and a 27-year-old $850,000.

I wonder if the ink is dry on that clause. The vAFL will always find a way.

 

[Flayin_Rayn17]

You could probably add in assumptions of:

Croft (WB) 10->15
McCabe (Haw) 15->20
Cleary (Syd) 20->25

Pushing down 1st round picks.

Yep, knew there'd be plenty of players I missed. Still feel that the ranges I've given for players aren't wildly off, despite a bit more dilution of the pool.

 

[Sammy J]

You can only have so many kids playing in your best 22 at one time. My worry about splitting into multiple picks is that we’re dropping quality for quantity. I’d rather just take the BPA at our available picks, do the same next year and regenerate through both the draft and Free Agency.

I think the fact we split last year further means the urgency to split this year is lessened. We already have 2 young mids who need time and reps at the top level. Reid adds a utility that can play anywhere, we then also need a developing key defender and probably a small defender too. Feels like this would be attainable with our existing draft hand at any rate.

Brockman fills a small forward role, Flynn shores up ruck, hopefully Robertson comes in and adds inside grunt in the right age profile too.

 

[Keys]

Sounds like Fox been reading BF haha

Dees ‘open’ to AFL trade bombshell... and it could shake up race for No.1 pick: Whispers

Dees ‘open’ to AFL trade bombshell... and it could shake up race for No.1 pick: Whispers

www.foxsports.com.au

Had to laugh at this bit re trading pick 1

While reports he would not like to play away from his home state were denied it’s still believed Reid would prefer to stay closer to home if at all possible.

But more pressingly for West Coast, they’re in desperate need of bulk talent rather than just one gun prospect, meaning trading down the order and getting multiple first-round picks is an obvious option

They keep beating the flight risk drum as hard as they can plus our perceived need of quantity over quality - which ignores we’ve brought in 7x players in the top 40 the last two years plus Long plus the first pick in consecutive MSDs and hold 4 further picks inside 40 for this draft

We can afford to take pick 1 and take the best player in the draft and still add some decent talent with what we have

 

[Flayin_Rayn17]

I'd even chuck in pick 20 going back.

At that point is it worth simplifying by just going 1 for 2, 3, 14? I think it'd be North's preference to not bother with a swap as meaningless as 19 for 20. Maybe 34 and 39 for a future 2nd, or something to that effect?

 

[bh90210fan]

Looks like a cry for help poor fella

 

[Chris_6678]

Looks like a cry for help poor fella

View attachment 1820799

Hahaha wonder if the Vic Media will pick that up as a story!

 

[Keys]

Just saw the article on AFL site and Jackson hateley should be one we look to train on as a SSP . We lack inside mids and at worse he could play for the beagles .

His knocks are he only plays inside mid well , once paced and not damaging by foot .

But seems to be a big unit who likes the tough inside work, tackles well and can rack up possessions.

Could be that cheap option to protect the kids for a few years

Possibly a fallback option if Robertson falls through

 

[BartBart]

Just listened to it. Much better interview as it addressed the main issues far better. They forgot to ask about Culley though



Thanks for the link

Really liked that interview. For the most part gave the answers you’d hope for

I particularly like that we’re not setting a price on pick 1 nor completely ruling out trading it. Essentially letting clubs know it’s there if you get keen enough but it’ll be incumbent on them to put together an irresistible offer

We can then shift the goal posts as often as we like because we’ve not given them a set target. In relation to draft picks he said the more R1 picks the better but you also want to be closer to the pointy end as much as possible. Confident that we aren’t going to throw it away

I also liked that whilst saying he’d prefer to reach a deal the PSD option was there

He also seemed more optimistic re Robertson than I expected

A little disappointing he didn't say something like "not all round 1 picks are equal - with the compromised draft meaning there will be almost thirty 1st rounders".

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Looks like a cry for help poor fella

View attachment 1820799

So to return the favour, are Norf going to guarantee Curtin by trading up to pick 1???

 

[PremiershipNo4]

That value is setting Reid, who's a complete unknown, will become the equal or better than possibly our greatest ever player.

People are starting to over-inflate the value of pick 1 to preposterous levels and need to reign in their expectations.

2 and 3 is overs.

Oh yeah, the Reid hype is way over the top. If we get a ridiculous offer we will be looking at it no doubt.

 

[Sammy J]

Had to laugh at this bit re trading pick 1



They keep beating the flight risk drum as hard as they can plus our perceived need of quantity over quality - which ignores we’ve brought in 7x players in the top 40 the last two years plus Long plus the first pick in consecutive MSDs and hold 4 further picks inside 40 for this draft

We can afford to take pick 1 and take the best player in the draft and still add some decent talent with what we have

They really are completely tone deaf and devoid of doing even the slightest bit of research into the clubs position. Such lazy analysis on our list, as well as flat out ignoring the comments made by Reid, his management, his coach and ROB on our position in drafting interstate players.

Hell, we’ve drafted Chesser, Culley, Maric and Long all from Country VIC over the last 2 years. Why would we be concerned about Reid? Won’t read about that anywhere though as it doesn’t fit the agenda.

 

[mentalgrind]

In that Fox article, they're only showing small snippets of what ROB said, taking it out of context and spinning it into the same narrative they've been banging on for the last 6 months. It's frustrating!

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

 

[BartBart]

Yep, knew there'd be plenty of players I missed. Still feel that the ranges I've given for players aren't wildly off, despite a bit more dilution of the pool.

Yeah - I'm not looking beyond 1st round dilution as once you go deeper any pick is pretty speculative & less difference if they get pushed down.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

A little disappointing he didn't say something like "not all round 1 picks are equal - with the compromised draft meaning there will be almost thirty 1st rounders".

He kinda did though.

"In relation to draft picks he said the more R1 picks the better but you also want to be closer to the pointy end as much as possible."

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[Alesana]

Just saw the article on AFL site and Jackson hateley should be one we look to train on as a SSP . We lack inside mids and at worse he could play for the beagles .

His knocks are he only plays inside mid well , once paced and not damaging by foot .

Well with those attributes I'll look forward to seeing him line up on the wing for us

 

[TOA.]

In that Fox article, they're only showing small snippets of what ROB said, taking it out of context and spinning it into the same narrative they've been banging on for the last 6 months. It's frustrating!

Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk

The potential trade for pick 1 is the only half interesting thing that could happen in this trade period so they'll keep reaching for those clicks until his name is called out.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

I'm already sick of all this 'North has the best draft hand for Reid' talk and we still got another 50 days to go to the draft

 

[BartBart]

Had to laugh at this bit re trading pick 1



They keep beating the flight risk drum as hard as they can plus our perceived need of quantity over quality - which ignores we’ve brought in 7x players in the top 40 the last two years plus Long plus the first pick in consecutive MSDs and hold 4 further picks inside 40 for this draft

We can afford to take pick 1 and take the best player in the draft and still add some decent talent with what we have

Just expanding on those you mentioned...
showing how many have come in

2021
Chesser (14)
Hough (31)
Bazzo (37)
J.Williams (57)
G.Clark (62)

2022
Ginbey (9)
Hewett (14)
H.Barnett (23)
Burgiel (29)
Long (58)
-
Winder (R2)
Trew (R20)

2022 MSD
Culley(1)

2023 MSD
Maric(1)

Witherden, SPS & Hunt traded in

 

[BartBart]

He kinda did though.

"In relation to draft picks he said the more R1 picks the better but you also want to be closer to the pointy end as much as possible."

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I mean a bit more pointed in saying it & also that we are keeping 1.

Being wishy-washy gives clubs (and the media) a chance to be tyre kickers/time wasters and low ball us (or the media to twist it into us wanting to split, etc - which we have already seen today).