List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

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Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

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[Flayin_Rayn17]

My preference is to just take Reid, but all the talk has got me thinking about what a realistic trade for pick 1 would look like, so I decided to theorise how it might play out.

Made a couple assumptions while cobbling this together, namely:
-North DO NOT get band 1 compo for Mckay
-North trade for Gold Coast's 1st rounder with some assortment of their priority picks and natural draft hand/s
-We don't trade any of our picks 1, 20, or 34 for players
-All 3 GC academy players get matched in the 1st round, specifically at: 1-2 (Walters), 3-6 (Read), 10-16 (Rogers)

So here goes:
WCE
In: 2(3), 5(6), 14(17), Future 2nd
Out: 1, 20(23), 34(?)
NTH
In: 1, 20(23), 34(?)
Out: 2(3), 5(6), 14(17), Future 2nd

With this, we would go into the draft holding picks 2,5,14,39,53,58 and in 2024 F1, F2, F2 (NTH), F3, F4

To me it's not ideal but so think it's what seems realistic if trading is actually on the table. With that had a possible draft, accounting for the whispers and current rankings may be:
2(3)- Curtin or Mckercher
5(7)- Curtin, Mckercher, Sanders, or Duursma
14(17)- De Mattia, Hardeman, Murphy or Leake
39(?)- Edwards, Hall, Lual, (slider)

Could potentially trade back in with Norths 2nd if Collard is still available and we're keen.

Dissecting the trade further, I feel like it can be viewed in three parts, like this:
1->2+5
20->14
34->F2
So it would essentially constitute one direct trade and two pick upgrades.

Still prefer to go with Reid, but interested to hear thoughts on this proposal. Result may end up being:
Mckercher
Curtin
Murphy
~21-25 next year
vs
H. Reid
A. Reid
Hastie
(Based on current rankings plus a little of my preferences)

Bit of a ramble-y post, but any thoughts/comments?

 

[Off Tap]

Roos target pick one, Dee to go on, big Dog to stay

Check out all the latest trade news from around the League

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Yeah I'd trade pick 1 for picks 2, 3, 14, and 19

Considering we received 3, 4 and 20 for prime-Judd, WCE would rip Norf's arm out of the socket if they put that forward.

 

[BartBart]

Producer screaming in the headphones: "Quick, cut this caller off! He's about to ruin our entire show's content for the next 3 months!"

"who's going to listen to our commercials ... I mean show?!"

 

[bzparkes]

Considering we received 3, 4 and 20 for prime-Judd, WCE would rip Norf's arm out of the socket if they put that forward.

The difference with Judd is that WCE had no leverage. It's the other way around this time and we've zero need to actually trade the pick so can just wait for a huge offer, if it comes. If it doesn't, we just draft Reid.

 

[TerryFilk]

Once again, you sound like your have knowledge and experience. Please elaborate.

I think it’s just common sense, teams aren’t going to get involved in a mega deal for pick 1 on draft night where they end up scrambling around and changing their plans.

Like last year, if pick 1 is traded, it’ll happen during the trade period so teams can be prepared draft night.

 

[kane249]

Days of Yeo in the middle should be over, unless this treatment he's getting is super human.

We can rebuild him

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Given that there is no news about Trew being extended, I am thinking that he is in the "let's see where we are at after trade week" camp. He is a rookie so

You would think that Brockman going public about joining West Coast is a done deal. For the sake of the list numbers, let us assume it is with pick 58

Not quite "in like Flynn" but getting close so that adds 2 to our list.




I really like the proposal from WCE_phil

Give Hawks picks 53, 58 and future R3 (say 53for Brockman and pick 30. Hawks will lose 30 with the McCabe points and they can always sell a future (incl ours) when there is a bid. I expect Walter, Read and Croft (and possibly Rogers) to all attract a bid before McCabe so picks 53 and 58 will come in by at least 10 spots so an automatic 200 points boost. Alternatively, we do a similar deal with the Swans and just give a Future R4 for Brockman

 

[TheNewAnchor]

I like the manner in which ROB handled the interview on our draft and trading position. Why would you emphatically declare your position on pick 1 in the current environment? If it was a game of poker and you were sitting on a royal flush you could afford to be aloof, if not cocky. He's teased all our possible suitors for pick 1, now let's see if anyone is stupid enough to cough up a deal that's impossible to resist. It's a pity Freo aren't in the picture, with their drafting, trading and retention history we could have seriously cleaned up.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I think it’s just common sense, teams aren’t going to get involved in a mega deal for pick 1 on draft night where they end up scrambling around and changing their plans.

Like last year, if pick 1 is traded, it’ll happen during the trade period so teams can be prepared draft night.

Once again you are mixing it up. Pick 1 was traded because of Horne Francis hence it had to happen in in trade week.

 

[Off Tap]

The difference with Judd is that WCE had no leverage. It's the other way around this time and we've zero need to actually trade the pick so can just wait for a huge offer, if it comes. If it doesn't, we just draft Reid.

That value is setting Reid, who's a complete unknown, will become the equal or better than possibly our greatest ever player.

People are starting to over-inflate the value of pick 1 to preposterous levels and need to reign in their expectations.

2 and 3 is overs.

 

[bzparkes]

That value is setting Reid, who's a complete unknown, will become the equal or better than possibly our greatest ever player.

People are starting to over-inflate the value of pick 1 to preposterous levels and need to reign in their expectations.

2 and 3 is overs.

Oh it's obviously over but if you can fleece North, you go for it.

Otherwise, just take him and be happy with it.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

That value is setting Reid, who's a complete unknown, will become the equal or better than possibly our greatest ever player.

People are starting to over-inflate the value of pick 1 to preposterous levels and need to reign in their expectations.

2 and 3 is overs.

North is getting pick 3 for a C- key defender. That's up to them if they're actively pursuing pick 1.

If they could manufacture 2, 5 & something else of value then it's also in the ballpark.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

Nah. You can't throw Ginbey and Reid to the wolves. Without Shuey it is important that Yeo plays in the middle but it is equally important that he's not spending entire games there. In saying that, we almost need Robertson for the same reason.

Midfield Kelly Culley Robertson sheed

Then stints for ginbey Hewett Reid

Also Petrecelle showed a fair bit on ball toward the latter part of the season .

Wings gaff , hunt, sheed , Hough Ledwards

I would rather try keep yeo on the park at HBF than risk him injury in the middle

 

[Flayin_Rayn17]

In my post I assumed they wouldn't, but if they do end up getting 3, something like 1 + 20 for 2 + 3 is what I would expect. Not sure how much difference 3 vs 5 is really going to make in this draft, seems pretty even around that 2-8 mark.

If they get 3 but want to keep 2 for the purposes of getting Curtin/Sanders, would 3, 5, 14, F2 for 1 + 20 do it? Or would potentially not getting Curtin be a dealbreaker? In that scenario it would be:

Curtin/McKercher
Duursma/O'Sullivan
Murphy/De Mattia
Future 2nd (NTH)

vs

H. Reid
A. Reid

To me that's an interesting offer.

 

[Ishmael_]

That value is setting Reid, who's a complete unknown, will become the equal or better than possibly our greatest ever player.

People are starting to over-inflate the value of pick 1 to preposterous levels and need to reign in their expectations.

2 and 3 is overs.

Ya I can't see it happening. It would be the highest price ever paid in a trade (don't points me kents) for an unproven kid.

It's arguably more than the Judd trade because we weren't getting pick 4 but an unproven Kennedy who hadn't set the world on fire in two seasons.

The only way it makes any kind of sense is because North has been given a bunch of picks and might get another charity top 5, so they could still end up with 2 x top 5 if they get GC's.

 

[Jukes]

Let’s not overcomplicate it:

Flynn - Free
Brockman - Pick 53
Dev - F3 (for Ashcroft points)

Pick 1, 20, 34, 39, 58

Reid, a couple KPP, a midfielder, a half back

See yas in 2024

 

[UseR2006]

 

[Sammy J]

Let’s not overcomplicate it:

Flynn - Free
Brockman - Pick 53
Dev - F3 (for Ashcroft points)

Pick 1, 20, 34, 39, 58

Reid, a couple KPP, a midfielder, a half back

See yas in 2024

This would be my preference. Comfortably.

 

[noobermensch]

Filling in some of the gaps in my back catalogue.

Not Nate Caddy's strongest game. In spite of the lopsided scoreline, this game was relatively even in general play. Northern just struggled to convert its opportunities inside 50. Caddy dropped a few marks that he would normally grab, and struggled to find space with his leads.

 

[Keys]

Let’s not overcomplicate it:

Flynn - Free
Brockman - Pick 53
Dev - F3 (for Ashcroft points)

Pick 1, 20, 34, 39, 58

Reid, a couple KPP, a midfielder, a half back

See yas in 2024

I’ve no issues with keeping it simple like that as it makes perfect sense

The only clarification is in that scenario pick 58 is surplus to requirements as we only have 7 list spots so I’d be offering it to Hawthorn in the Brockman trade in return for their F4

 

[Free Agent]

That value is setting Reid, who's a complete unknown, will become the equal or better than possibly our greatest ever player.

People are starting to over-inflate the value of pick 1 to preposterous levels and need to reign in their expectations.

2 and 3 is overs.

Yeah but the issue is Curtin as he is obviously not anywhere close to being pick in the top 3.

His a pick 6 at best and from all the talk if we have pick 2&3 everyone assumes we would pick Curtin with it. That's selling ourselves short which I don't like. We are basically downgrading just because his a WA player which is ridiculous. You may aswell just say pick 2&6 for pick 1.

It's this issue I'm completely against the idea of pick 2&3. We are not getting the best. McKercher and Duursma really is the top 2&3 if we are being completed serious about this. Would we pick them I'm not convinced.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

No unproven player is untradeable.

O'Brien makes sense when he says Pick 1 is unlikely but doable.

If North come with Pick2 and Pick3 (without knowing the talent - just in general) we'd be silly not to take it.

We could then also split Pick 3 as well if required

I appreciate that is highly unlikely - so is us trading pick 1

I will say this though - the deal we did last year - which was effectively Sheezel for Ginbey and Hewett. I wouldn't do that deal and don't think it was good value.

 

[Alesana]

From memory BBW is a horrible shot on goal. Not sure he is the CHF/FF we've been looking for.

His marking is a bigger concern for me, not many successful KPFs who aren't a reliable mark

 

[Ghossein]

?
1 . Reid split his time between forward and mid this year so stick him in the forward line with his mate long

2 . The back 6 shouldn't look like that too slow
Something like this would be more effective
B Cole Barrass Duggan
HB yeo McGovern Hough

With Jones and hunt running through the backline also. Suddenly our backline has some pace to it !

Witherden- Beagles

Thinking about it we actually have a lot of utility now.

Duggan and Yeo are capable of playing centre if necessary, Hough also performs well on the wing. Hunt who usually plays on the wing can also shift back if necessary.

Ginbey can rotate to HB and Hewett can rotate forward. Jones can play either forward or back.

Will be interesting to see how the coaches manage this.

 

[Ghossein]

His marking is a bigger concern for me, not many successful KPFs who aren't a reliable mark

Thought he improved in both contested marking and set shots as the season progressed.