List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency Part 10

[_RT_]

Trade & Free Agency Dates

Free Agency Period - Friday October 4th 9am to Friday October 11th 5pm

Trade Period - Monday 7th October 9am to Wednesday October 16th 7.30pm

Richmond have been linked to the following players:
Elijah Tsatas
Jai Culley
Jacob Konstanty

 

[Noidnadroj]

So they should if pick 3 is demonstratively better in this draft than say picks 6 or 10. However, if it is as deep and even as many are claiming and there is no big 3 or 4 or 5 players and then the rest (as the Eagles obviously believe) then we are the ones that should be melting.

Anyhow I would appreciate some reassurance from someone who is watching this years draftees closely that this is the case. Not interested in 3 if it simply a more glamorous number than say 10.

Also under no circumstances should our pursuit of 3 in anyway compromise getting Brisbane or anyone else’s first rounder. Baker + 10 + effectively Brisbanes first for 3 is way too much. We have too may holes in our list to afford that kind of extravagance.

Here is the data - sometimes taking median and not the average which can be skewed by Pendles 400+ games etc…:

Median games played:
Pick 1 = 199
2 = 201
3-5 = 153
6-10: 121
11-20 : 94
21-30 : 70

Average career B’Low votes:

Pick 1 = 48
2 = 43
3-5 = 38
6-10: 17
11-20 : 15
21-30 : 9

% chance to get an AA:

Pick 1 = 45%
2 = 45%
3-5 = 29%
6-10 = 19%
11-20 = 16%
21-30 = 9%

Do NOT reach 80-games:
Pick 1 = 5%
2 = 10%
3-5 = 24%
6-10 = 37%
11-20 = 48%
21-30 = 55%

And finally … total AA selections & total B&F’s (I’ve done top-30 from 2000 when drafting became more of a ‘science’):

Pick 1 = 18 x AA, 17 x B&F’s
2 = 14 x AA, 15 x B&F
3 = 14 / 11
4 = 16 / 10
5 = 25 / 13
6 = 6 / 1 (yes, these numbers are correct)
7 = 13 / 7
8 = 6 / 3
9 = 2 / 1
10 = 11 / 5 (Danger with 8/4)
11 = 7 / 7
12 = 10 / 6
13 = 15 / 9
14 = 3 / 1
15 = 0 / 1
16 = 1 / 3
17 = 3 / 0
18 = 10 / 5
19 = 2 / 2
20 = 6 / 7
21 = 3 / 3
22 = 0 / 3
23 = 3 / 4
24 = 6 / 3
25 = 0 / 4
26 = 6 / 5 (Merrett has 3 and 4)
27 = 1 / 0
28 = 1 / 1
29 = 5 / 6
30 = 7 / 2

So pick-6 is an absolute anomaly. But it’s fair to say history tells us top-5 or even perhaps top-7 picks are gold. Then 8-13 are fairly equal. Then 14-30 are also very similar with a few individuals skewing the numbers (Fyfe, Rance and Merrett).

So we should fight tooth and nail to get top-7 picks. But not lose too much sleep if we get pick-13 and not pick-10, or get pick-24 and not pick-15. Obviously Blair knows all these numbers and would be playing the odds…. taking into account the supposed depth of the draft of course.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Tigerbob]

No talk of Bailey Smith here?
Is it 100% confirmed he’s off to the Cats?
We could definitely jump in.
We have the cap space to give him a decent deal. Replaces a senior body like Baker.
He’d easily fit into our rotations on the wing/HFF/mid.

surely Geelong aren’t the favourites just because of a sponsorship deal.

He's basically training with Geelong now mate.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

a gun is over the top.
Hasnt played for two years...
Take off your rose coloured glasses...not worth pick 5

You know you just shattered Groupie_ s dreams.
First time in 2 decades he was able to rise naturally.

 

[_RT_]

Personally my view is you never pay for another club's potential flag... But probably lucky I'm not a list manager, or anything for that matter.

If it meant Suns & Freo threw in an extra R1 pick in both deals I'd happily pay it.

The options open to us otherwise are:

a. Over pay fringe players who aren't deserving of it
or
b. Bring forward money owed to Taranto Short Hopper who all have 3+ years left

If we only pay the minimum required over the next couple of seasons we can then pay that amount over the cap for a couple of years later on when we may want to go Free Agent/Trade shopping for big names or want to pay our own players like Balta & Gibcus should they warrant it.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

I reckon the Dees would still take a chance on him even with his recent injury history. They are desperate for a KPF and Lynch is a one of the best in the business if fit.

Of they were really desperate they'd make a huge offer for someone like Cadman.
Pick 5 & f1 & 2nd would be the type of desperate move.

 

[Groupie_]

We need to keep lynch for leadership alone, to help out our forward line.

I want to get big sexy another tiger flag

 

[Tortured Tiger]

Not when this years rated best of all time

I hear what you are saying but the top 10 for next year is already looking good and we maybe able to bundle up a couple of first rounders to get another pick in the top 10.

 

[Groupie_]

No talk of Bailey Smith here?
Is it 100% confirmed he’s off to the Cats?
We could definitely jump in.
We have the cap space to give him a decent deal. Replaces a senior body like Baker.
He’d easily fit into our rotations on the wing/HFF/mid.

surely Geelong aren’t the favourites just because of a sponsorship deal.

hes shite

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Why would we be happy with Hawthorn's future 1st? They are only going to get better next year.
If we get pick 3 this year at the expense of 9 or 10 (10 or 11 after Ashcroft bid) and something on top of that to satisfy West Coast then we should definitely do it.

Yes it's a deep draft but the players at the pointy end is what we need to build our club around over the next few years. I'm happy to sacrifice pretty much any pick in the 20's on top of Baker and 10 or 11 to get pick 3 because that way it lessens our chances of getting it wrong.

I have no doubt we could pick up some gems in that 20-30 range, but if I'm the RFC and I have been told that pick 3 is on the table, we need to make it happen.

People always worry about giving up too much in trades but it's not about that. It's about getting elite talent through the door and navigating through the trade and draft periods with that sole goal. Hawthorn's first pick next year is relatively inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.

this
Our destiny is in our own hands if we have 1 & 3.
Other way we're relying others to pick so n so.
I would even try and get pick 2 off north.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

This idea about getting the best draft picks is completely overrated. Sure, you need them to turn your list over but apart from GWS there isn't another team currently dominating the comp because of high end elite picks. GWS have had this since they came into the comp and still aren't the best team.

You need ample picks to build a list not just the top picks.

Gws problem is culture based.

 

[Coach_Required]

Here is the data - sometimes taking median and not the average which can be skewed by Pendles 400+ games etc…:

Median games played:
Pick 1 = 199
2 = 201
3-5 = 153
6-10: 121
11-20 : 94
21-30 : 70

Average career B’Low votes:

Pick 1 = 48
2 = 43
3-5 = 38
6-10: 17
11-20 : 15
21-30 : 9

% chance to get an AA:

Pick 1 = 45%
2 = 45%
3-5 = 29%
6-10 = 19%
11-20 = 16%
21-30 = 9%

Do NOT reach 80-games:
Pick 1 = 5%
2 = 10%
3-5 = 24%
6-10 = 37%
11-20 = 48%
21-30 = 55%

And finally … total AA selections & total B&F’s (I’ve done top-30 from 2000 when drafting became more of a ‘science’):

Pick 1 = 18 x AA, 17 x B&F’s
2 = 14 x AA, 15 x B&F
3 = 14 / 11
4 = 16 / 10
5 = 25 / 13
6 = 6 / 1 (yes, these numbers are correct)
7 = 13 / 7
8 = 6 / 3
9 = 2 / 1
10 = 11 / 5 (Danger with 8/4)
11 = 7 / 7
12 = 10 / 6
13 = 15 / 9
14 = 3 / 1
15 = 0 / 1
16 = 1 / 3
17 = 3 / 0
18 = 10 / 5
19 = 2 / 2
20 = 6 / 7
21 = 3 / 3
22 = 0 / 3
23 = 3 / 4
24 = 6 / 3
25 = 0 / 4
26 = 6 / 5 (Merrett has 3 and 4)
27 = 1 / 0
28 = 1 / 1
29 = 5 / 6
30 = 7 / 2

So pick-6 is an absolute anomaly. But it’s fair to say history tells us top-5 or even perhaps top-7 picks are gold. Then 8-13 are fairly equal. Then 14-30 are also very similar with a few individuals skewing the numbers (Fyfe, Rance and Merrett).

So we should fight tooth and nail to get top-7 picks. But not lose too much sleep if we get pick-13 and not pick-10, or get pick-24 and not pick-15. Obviously Blair knows all these numbers and would be playing the odds…. taking into account the supposed depth of the draft of course.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

How many premiership players are in the top 5, top 10, top 20? etc Easy to understand why clubs would play top picked players more, doesnt mean those teams were successful.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Now what number did we draft Rance again? Rioli? Edwards?

I think you actually didn't quite understand my post.

Including Deledio is clutching at straws btw LOL

Buddy/Roughhead/Lewis & Culture

 

[Coach_Required]

Buddy/Roughhead/Lewis & Culture

Culture? LOL Geelong and Swans seem to have a pretty good culture the past 17 years.

Richmond	Pick
Cotchin	2
Martin	3
Caddy	7	Gold Coast
Vlastuin	9
Prestia	9	Gold Coast
Lynch	11	Gold Coast
Riewoldt	13
Rioli	15
Rance	18
Balta	25
Edwards	26
Bolton	29
Nankervis	35	Sydney
Graham	53
Butler	67
Broad	67
Grimes	PSD 2
Houli	PSD 3
Short	Rookie 11
Baker	Rookie 18
Castagna	Rookie 29
Lambert	Rookie 46
Soldo	Rookie 68
Pickett	MSD 13

 

[docko911]

I just did a quick estimate of our player salaries and we should have heaps of cap space.

Big sexy 1.5m
Taranto and & Hopper $1m
Short, Nank & Vlastuin 750k
Broad, Balta & Prestia 500k

These are probably all over the place

Then a few players between 250-400

Then the rest 200k except Hayes-Brown (100k).

With 44 players + 1 cat b I only get us to $15.65m - TPP floor is $16.8m.

It is likely our player payments would be lower as $200k roughly means the player on base salary has played between 10-15 games. Rookies also get slightly less and cat b base is like $60k.

Obviously we’ll have heaps of cap space so probably have to pay some of Bolton and Rioli contract and can still up the amount paid to Taranto, Hopper & Short.

 

[_RT_]

For those who are focused on acquiring the Lions pick don't forget they also have Marshall who they need to match a bid on, so they may not be that keen on trading out their R1 pick this year and instead look to trade out of 2025 and gain 3-4 picks in the 20-40 range which then allows them to secure both.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Culture? LOL Geelong and Swans seem to have a pretty good culture the past 17 years.

You think a club who has won more flags over the past 40yrs than you've had hot dinners has culture issues?

 

[Coach_Required]

You don't think a club who has won more flags over the past 40yrs than you've had hot dinners has culture issues?

Your throwing culture in like it's a draft pick, we have culture, Geelong has culture, Sydney has culture. Successful teams have culture.

My whole point is fighting over a draft pick of say 6 or pick 11 is pointless.

 

[jthanos]

Here is the data - sometimes taking median and not the average which can be skewed by Pendles 400+ games etc…:

Median games played:
Pick 1 = 199
2 = 201
3-5 = 153
6-10: 121
11-20 : 94
21-30 : 70

Average career B’Low votes:

Pick 1 = 48
2 = 43
3-5 = 38
6-10: 17
11-20 : 15
21-30 : 9

% chance to get an AA:

Pick 1 = 45%
2 = 45%
3-5 = 29%
6-10 = 19%
11-20 = 16%
21-30 = 9%

Do NOT reach 80-games:
Pick 1 = 5%
2 = 10%
3-5 = 24%
6-10 = 37%
11-20 = 48%
21-30 = 55%

And finally … total AA selections & total B&F’s (I’ve done top-30 from 2000 when drafting became more of a ‘science’):

Pick 1 = 18 x AA, 17 x B&F’s
2 = 14 x AA, 15 x B&F
3 = 14 / 11
4 = 16 / 10
5 = 25 / 13
6 = 6 / 1 (yes, these numbers are correct)
7 = 13 / 7
8 = 6 / 3
9 = 2 / 1
10 = 11 / 5 (Danger with 8/4)
11 = 7 / 7
12 = 10 / 6
13 = 15 / 9
14 = 3 / 1
15 = 0 / 1
16 = 1 / 3
17 = 3 / 0
18 = 10 / 5
19 = 2 / 2
20 = 6 / 7
21 = 3 / 3
22 = 0 / 3
23 = 3 / 4
24 = 6 / 3
25 = 0 / 4
26 = 6 / 5 (Merrett has 3 and 4)
27 = 1 / 0
28 = 1 / 1
29 = 5 / 6
30 = 7 / 2

So pick-6 is an absolute anomaly. But it’s fair to say history tells us top-5 or even perhaps top-7 picks are gold. Then 8-13 are fairly equal. Then 14-30 are also very similar with a few individuals skewing the numbers (Fyfe, Rance and Merrett).

So we should fight tooth and nail to get top-7 picks. But not lose too much sleep if we get pick-13 and not pick-10, or get pick-24 and not pick-15. Obviously Blair knows all these numbers and would be playing the odds…. taking into account the supposed depth of the draft of course.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

so random, how #5 has 25 AAs & #6 has 6 AAs or #18 has 10 AAs & #19 1AAs is really irrelevant.
What we should be doing is focussing in areas where we have gaps or no back-up when players are injured

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Your throwing culture in like it's a draft pick, we have culture, Geelong has culture, Sydney has culture. Successful teams have culture.

Culture goes a very long way towards success.
You say high draft picks don't guarantee success Without the right culture it makes it very difficult.

 

[docko911]

For those who are focused on acquiring the Lions pick don't forget they also have Marshall who they need to match a bid on, so they may not be that keen on trading out their R1 pick this year and instead look to trade out of 2025 and gain 3-4 picks in the 20-40 range which then allows them to secure both.

That doesn’t really make sense. They will definitely be keen to trade their first this year but might also trade their future first/second. Their first this year gets eaten up as soon as they get a bid on Ashcroft so they will trade it out for more points but might wait until live trading. Based on what GC did last year you can trade for more picks than you have list spots in live trading.

Our best option is to live trade with them before pick 1 using all the late picks we have. If we can get both their first and future first/second we’ll have done very well.

We could also trade pre-draft but it depends on how many list spots the Lions have for the draft.

 

[Daka]

Has anyone ever watched this guy?
His knowledge & research is pretty good...

 

[Coach_Required]

Culture goes a very long way towards success.
You say high draft picks don't guarantee success Without the right culture it makes it very difficult.

Its about drafting, you need to draft the right person at the right pick, a kid picked up at pick 11 could be a better leader than a pick 1.

I understand the higher the pick the better chance we have of getting a decent player but that doesn't mean success. People turning their noses up at picks in the teens is nonsense. I'd rather picks 8 & 16 than just pick 3. The more picks we can get in the top 20 the better off we will be, not trading it all for the first 3 picks (just as an example).

 

[_RT_]

That doesn’t really make sense. They will definitely be keen to trade their first this year but might also trade their future first/second. Their first this year gets eaten up as soon as they get a bid on Ashcroft so they will trade it out for more points but might wait until live trading. Based on what GC did last year you can trade for more picks than you have list spots in live trading.

Our best option is to live trade with them before pick 1 using all the late picks we have. If we can get both their first and future first/second we’ll have done very well.

We could also trade pre-draft but it depends on how many list spots the Lions have for the draft.

I know 14 gets eaten up by the bid on Ashcroft, but it also depends how many points they need to match the 2 bids. Right now they have 1466 points which barely covers an Ashcroft bid (should it come inside 5) and would probably need between 600-900 to match a bid on Marshall.

To make it worth their while trading out 14 and getting enough points to match the 2 bids, they'd be looking at something along the lines of 22, 29, 39 & 41 from us which nets them 2356 points, which pretty much is double the value of 14 on it's own. Not sure any club would be interested in giving up a haul like that for a pick that likely drifts closer to 20 after bids/compo gets added in.

So maybe they opt to keep 14 and trade a similar valued pick in 2025 for say 29 & 39 this year, which allows them to match the 2 bids and maybe get a late pick or 2 to use on any sliders still available.

 

[Sol23]

Has anyone ever watched this guy?
His knowledge & research is pretty good...

I agree
Knows his stuff and I like what he said and the team he selected.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Its about drafting, you need to draft the right person at the right pick, a kid picked up at pick 11 could be a better leader than a pick 1.

I understand the higher the pick the better chance we have of getting a decent player but that doesn't mean success. People turning their noses up at picks in the teens is nonsense. I'd rather picks 8 & 16 than just pick 3. The more picks we can get in the top 20 the better off we will be, not trading it all for the first 3 picks (just as an example).

I'd rather take the better odds of an xtra top end pick knowing pretty much the odds of him making it is greater.