List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 6

[Rubber Hips]

Probably going to slide to picks 14 and 21 as well so seems reasonable for a desperate need. It is about the value of pick 4 on the draft points index. I expected we would have gotten off a bit lighter than that but you wouldn’t be turning your back on the deal due to that cost.

Exactly…this draft ain’t hot…14 & 21 could be maybe picks…or it could be TT..ready made bull

i know who I’d take..

 

[Jimmy Jess]

Best trade week ever.

 

[zakazano]

I’m not sure how people let Rendell onto the radio as a trade expert with a straight face. I’m dead certain they must be paying him with Monopoly money

I heard him on SEN say that Port will offer pick 8 and their first pick next year and then say if next years pick isn’t a top ten they’ll have to throw in something extra. Which means either Port can tell the future or the AFL have included bracketing of future picks and told absolutely no one

stealing a living, would fit in well as a politician because it's just unaccountable dribble coming out of his mouth.

 

[Rubber Hips]

Go tigers!

 

[Al Heimer]

Dodoro *effed trade week for everyone yet?

On SM-J250F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Hoos]

Dodoro *effed trade week for everyone yet?

On SM-J250F using BigFooty.com mobile app

The best part is knowing who it is that he ****s up trade week the most for...

Essendon.

 

[Groupie_]

We definitely need cover if soldo goes Ryan isn’t up to it yet and miller is only pinch hitter

does benny gales son play ? father son?

 

[Calcium Man]

Not happy giving up next years first round pick but you have to give to get.
Maybe we will trade a player next yeae for a first rounder.

When did we trade next years pick?

 

[daftmike]

so what's next?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Would assume it’s one of the younger guys who are ready to play but behind others for a spot in the best 22
Maybe a Mansell or Hugo type given GWS are so pretty stacked for young mids you wouldn’t think it would be RCD or Dow

I fear it will be Hugo - and I’d spew if he left. Massive upside. I’d be happy with any of Soldo, RCD, Mansell or Biggy ….if there’s a God it’ll be George and Aarts.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Groupie_]

Future 1st and Soldo for Hopper

We keep pick 30 and Groupie gets to wash out the sand from his vagina

 

[Muddiemoose]

I fear it will be Hugo - and I’d spew if he left. Massive upside. I’d be happy with any of Soldo, RCD, Mansell or Biggy ….if there’s a God it’ll be George and Aarts.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Agree, Hugo is the one I would like to keep the most

Granted he is still expendable but just something about him gives the vibe that he could be a really decent 150 game prospect

 

[BAFLD]

Could the Dow brothers be packaged up to GWS?

Tigers give Thomson Dow + 31
Tigers get J Hopper
Blues give Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

Blues get pick 43
GWS give Hopper and 43
GWS get Thomson and Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

, pick 31

 

[Marcel Proust]

If it's ralphsmith I'll spew up

 

[Muddiemoose]

Could the Dow brothers be packaged up to GWS?

Tigers give Thomson Dow + 31
Tigers get J Hopper
Blues give Paddy Dow
Blues get pick 43
GWS give Hopper and 43
GWS get Thomson and Paddy Dow, pick 31

Don’t really think GWS would be interested in them, they have a fairly deep contingent of young Mids and will probably get a few more in the next few drafts given the picks they will have

 

[Karp3_dm]

View attachment 1525434

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I never understand this comparison.
If you had pick 4, would you trade it for 14 and 21 as it's equal value?

Draft points aren't relevant in all trades.

Let’s take the draft years 2005-2017 as a guide to this and see if we can get a bit of an idea.

Pick 4 Kennedy(Blues, Eagles) Leuenberger, C. Morton, Hartlett, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliott, Toumpas, Bontempelli, J Pickett, Oliver, b Ainsworth, Uniacke

Pick 14 Birchall, Selar, J Grimes, Ayce Cordy, L Jetta, Brodie Smith, Dev Smith, Corr, Cam McCarthy, Lever, Hipwood, Perryman, Ling

Pick 21 Stanley, Urquhart, A Marric, Ballantyne, Bastinac, J Lamb, Tom Mitchell *F/S, Hrovat, Impey, H Goddard, B McKay, Hayward, Oscar Allen

I will stop at 2017 because it gives us at least 5 years to judge all the players.


So 13 x pick 4 gets you:

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver
Very good - Gaff, Uniacke
Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth
Some value - Leuenberger

13 x pick 14 gets you:

Stars - Lever
Very good - Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman
Decent career - Dev Smith, Corr
Some value - J Grimes, C McCarthy

13 x pick 21 gets you:

Stars - T Mitchell,
Very Good - B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne
Decent career - Impey, Hayward
Some value - Bastinac

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver v Mitchell and Lever….huge win to pick 4

Very good - Gaff, Uniacke v Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B Mckay, O Allen, Ballantyne - huge win to picks 14/21 though all in quantity rather than quality.

Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliot, Ainsworth v Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward - this is probably close.

Some value - Leuenberger v J Grimes, McCarthy, Bastinac - not especially important.

—————————

So this comes down to

Bontempelli, Kennedy, Oliver, Gaff, Uniacke, Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth

v

Mitchell, Lever, Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne, Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward.


8 players who are undoubtedly better on average from the pick 4 group v 14 more even but still strong players from the pick 14+21 group.

Would you say the pick 4 group is definitely of greater overall value?

I know from looking at this before that when I compared picks 1-10 with picks 11-30 over a large number of years the twice as many picks from 11-30 seemed to produce a better array of players than the half as many picks from the 1-10 range. So I am not so certain the higher picks aren’t a bit over-rated and to me pick 14 and 21 when combined seem to have proven roughly as valuable as pick 4.

 

[Rubber Hips]

Perspective

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

When did we trade next years pick?

Looks likely for Hopper according to reports.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Crows forwardline is all potential. Would kill for Rachele though. Port's is just s**t.

I'd take Georgiades given the pick of any of them. Rachele second, Marshall third - although he's more of a need than Rachele.

 

[Tigers Time]

It might not be one of our players (do any of ours even want to go to gws?) could be a third club getting involved.

 

[captain cotch 9]

With KMac and Pickett getting on Hugo is a must keep.
Tradable players with currency would be Soldo, Broad, Graham, Ross.
Unfortunately you need to give quality to get quality.
I hope we keep the boys above but I don’t like not have a 1st rounder 2 years in a row

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You know they're up s**t Creek with their cap?

Yes sure. Without that you are not getting near Taranto. But equally we were up sh!t creek for ready made big bodied mids, and this would not have been lost on GWS. It is why they and Taranto and Hopper probably wanted to deal with Richmond rather than another club.

 

[tiger_tough]

If it's ralphsmith I'll spew up

****in hope not but I have a bad feeling

 

[prodigy]

Let’s take the draft years 2005-2017 as a guide to this and see if we can get a bit of an idea.

Pick 4 Kennedy(Blues, Eagles) Leuenberger, C. Morton, Hartlett, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliott, Toumpas, Bontempelli, J Pickett, Oliver, b Ainsworth, Uniacke

Pick 14 Birchall, Selar, J Grimes, Ayce Cordy, L Jetta, Brodie Smith, Dev Smith, Corr, Cam McCarthy, Lever, Hipwood, Perryman, Ling

Pick 21 Stanley, Urquhart, A Marric, Ballantyne, Bastinac, J Lamb, Tom Mitchell *F/S, Hrovat, Impey, H Goddard, B McKay, Hayward, Oscar Allen

I will stop at 2017 because it gives us at least 5 years to judge all the players.


So 13 x pick 4 gets you:

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver
Very good - Gaff, Uniacke
Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth
Some value - Leuenberger

13 x pick 14 gets you:

Stars - Lever
Very good - Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman
Decent career - Dev Smith, Corr
Some value - J Grimes, C McCarthy

13 x pick 21 gets you:

Stars - T Mitchell,
Very Good - B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne
Decent career - Impey, Hayward
Some value - Bastinac

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver v Mitchell and Lever….huge win to pick 4

Very good - Gaff, Uniacke v Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B Mckay, O Allen, Ballantyne - huge win to picks 14/21 though all in quantity rather than quality.

Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliot, Ainsworth v Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward - this is probably close.

Some value - Leuenberger v J Grimes, McCarthy, Bastinac - not especially important.

—————————

So this comes down to

Bontempelli, Kennedy, Oliver, Gaff, Uniacke, Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth

v

Mitchell, Lever, Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne, Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward.


8 players who are undoubtedly better on average from the pick 4 group v 14 more even but still strong players from the pick 14+21 group.

Would you say the pick 4 group is definitely of greater overall value?

I know from looking at this before that when I compared picks 1-10 with picks 11-30 over a large number of years the twice as many picks from 11-30 seemed to produce a better array of players than the half as many picks from the 1-10 range. So I am not so certain the higher picks aren’t a bit over-rated and to me pick 14 and 21 when combined seem to have proven roughly as valuable as pick 4.

You put a lot of thought into this post and im sorry in advance for not responding in kind.
However, I can assure you that no list manager would trade 4 for 14 and 21.
You can't use draft points in these types of scenarios.