List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 6

[Meteoric Rise]

It might not be one of our players (do any of ours even want to go to gws?) could be a third club getting involved.

Their coach was at our club so I think most likely it will be one of our players.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You put a lot of thought into this post and im sorry in advance for not responding in kind.
However, I can assure you that no list manager would trade 4 for 14 and 21.
You can't use draft points in these types of scenarios.

I agree list managers would not do that trade. But that doesn’t make them right. All the research I have done over time tells me the draft points index is a very good guide to the relative value of picks, certainly a better guide than the average list manager decision.

 

[Calcium Man]

Let’s take the draft years 2005-2017 as a guide to this and see if we can get a bit of an idea.

Pick 4 Kennedy(Blues, Eagles) Leuenberger, C. Morton, Hartlett, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliott, Toumpas, Bontempelli, J Pickett, Oliver, b Ainsworth, Uniacke

Pick 14 Birchall, Selar, J Grimes, Ayce Cordy, L Jetta, Brodie Smith, Dev Smith, Corr, Cam McCarthy, Lever, Hipwood, Perryman, Ling

Pick 21 Stanley, Urquhart, A Marric, Ballantyne, Bastinac, J Lamb, Tom Mitchell *F/S, Hrovat, Impey, H Goddard, B McKay, Hayward, Oscar Allen

I will stop at 2017 because it gives us at least 5 years to judge all the players.


So 13 x pick 4 gets you:

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver
Very good - Gaff, Uniacke
Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth
Some value - Leuenberger

13 x pick 14 gets you:

Stars - Lever
Very good - Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman
Decent career - Dev Smith, Corr
Some value - J Grimes, C McCarthy

13 x pick 21 gets you:

Stars - T Mitchell,
Very Good - B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne
Decent career - Impey, Hayward
Some value - Bastinac

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver v Mitchell and Lever….huge win to pick 4

Very good - Gaff, Uniacke v Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B Mckay, O Allen, Ballantyne - huge win to picks 14/21 though all in quantity rather than quality.

Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliot, Ainsworth v Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward - this is probably close.

Some value - Leuenberger v J Grimes, McCarthy, Bastinac - not especially important.

—————————

So this comes down to

Bontempelli, Kennedy, Oliver, Gaff, Uniacke, Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth

v

Mitchell, Lever, Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne, Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward.


8 players who are undoubtedly better on average from the pick 4 group v 14 more even but still strong players from the pick 14+21 group.

Would you say the pick 4 group is definitely of greater overall value?

I know from looking at this before that when I compared picks 1-10 with picks 11-30 over a large number of years the twice as many picks from 11-30 seemed to produce a better array of players than the half as many picks from the 1-10 range. So I am not so certain the higher picks aren’t a bit over-rated and to me pick 14 and 21 when combined seem to have proven roughly as valuable as pick 4.

I think your analysis misses a few vital things. Perryman and Hipwood were academy players, it’s becoming obvious that academy players are taken at lower draft choice then what they are actually regarded with the odd exception.

Tom Mitchell was a f/s when you only had to match with an equivalent round pick. Freo bid on him at 16. Not to mention that draft is completely skewed by all GWS picks that year.

I don’t think you can count those 3 in your comparison as there are too many extenuating circumstances.

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

What we likely to give up for hopper?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Hendo_21]

How come you guys seem to think it'll be Ralphsmith? What's the connection there or reasoning behind it?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Let’s take the draft years 2005-2017 as a guide to this and see if we can get a bit of an idea.

Pick 4 Kennedy(Blues, Eagles) Leuenberger, C. Morton, Hartlett, Morabito, Gaff, Hoskin-Elliott, Toumpas, Bontempelli, J Pickett, Oliver, b Ainsworth, Uniacke

Pick 14 Birchall, Selar, J Grimes, Ayce Cordy, L Jetta, Brodie Smith, Dev Smith, Corr, Cam McCarthy, Lever, Hipwood, Perryman, Ling

Pick 21 Stanley, Urquhart, A Marric, Ballantyne, Bastinac, J Lamb, Tom Mitchell *F/S, Hrovat, Impey, H Goddard, B McKay, Hayward, Oscar Allen

I will stop at 2017 because it gives us at least 5 years to judge all the players.


So 13 x pick 4 gets you:

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver
Very good - Gaff, Uniacke
Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth
Some value - Leuenberger

13 x pick 14 gets you:

Stars - Lever
Very good - Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman
Decent career - Dev Smith, Corr
Some value - J Grimes, C McCarthy

13 x pick 21 gets you:

Stars - T Mitchell,
Very Good - B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne
Decent career - Impey, Hayward
Some value - Bastinac

Stars - Kennedy, Bontempelli, Oliver v Mitchell and Lever….huge win to pick 4

Very good - Gaff, Uniacke v Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B Mckay, O Allen, Ballantyne - huge win to picks 14/21 though all in quantity rather than quality.

Decent career - Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliot, Ainsworth v Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward - this is probably close.

Some value - Leuenberger v J Grimes, McCarthy, Bastinac - not especially important.

—————————

So this comes down to

Bontempelli, Kennedy, Oliver, Gaff, Uniacke, Hartlett, Hoskin-Elliott, Ainsworth

v

Mitchell, Lever, Hipwood, Birchall, Jetta, Brodie Smith, Perryman, B McKay, O Allen, Ballantyne, Dev Smith, Corr, Impey, Hayward.


8 players who are undoubtedly better on average from the pick 4 group v 14 more even but still strong players from the pick 14+21 group.

Would you say the pick 4 group is definitely of greater overall value?

I know from looking at this before that when I compared picks 1-10 with picks 11-30 over a large number of years the twice as many picks from 11-30 seemed to produce a better array of players than the half as many picks from the 1-10 range. So I am not so certain the higher picks aren’t a bit over-rated and to me pick 14 and 21 when combined seem to have proven roughly as valuable as pick 4.

You have too much time on your hands mate.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You have too much time on your hands mate.

Not for much longer.

 

[tiger_tough]

How come you guys seem to think it'll be Ralphsmith? What's the connection there or reasoning behind it?

Just because he's young, can play and has some currency but still stuck on the fringe.

Really hoping the Soldo rumours are true. I rate ralphsmith highly.

 

[Hendo_21]

Just because he's young, can play and has some currency but still stuck on the fringe.

Really hoping the Soldo rumours are true. I rate ralphsmith highly.

Interesting, I'd have no interest in Soldo at all and I think most of our board echo's that but Ralphsmith could be interesting as a wing/HB option

 

[Marcel Proust]

How come you guys seem to think it'll be Ralphsmith? What's the connection there or reasoning behind it?

People being pessimistic as he's the most valuable.

I think he'd do very well at the giants with your list

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think your analysis misses a few vital things. Perryman and Hipwood were academy players, it’s becoming obvious that academy players are taken at lower draft choice then what they are actually regarded with the odd exception.

Tom Mitchell was a f/s when you only had to match with an equivalent round pick. Freo bid on him at 16. Not to mention that draft is completely skewed by all GWS picks that year.

I don’t think you can count those 3 in your comparison as there are too many extenuating circumstances.

It is a small sample and only a rough guide. But I stand by trusting the draft points index at least as well as the decisions of list managers.

Your point about Mitchell is correct, I am less sure about your point regarding academy players. You could go through say the top 40 players in the game. I would wager roughly as many will have been drafted in the 11-30 range as the 1-10 range.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Yes sure. Without that you are not getting near Taranto. But equally we were up sh!t creek for ready made big bodied mids, and this would not have been lost on GWS. It is why they and Taranto and Hopper probably wanted to deal with Richmond rather than another club.

They could have easily be dealing with Coll & Geel if we didn't go 7yrs on both.
Good luck getting a better deal from those 2.
Fact of the matter is we know they're so tight with their cap they let Hopper explore his options even under contract.
So why should we give up someone like Brown under these. cumstances?

 

[Marcel Proust]

They could have easily be dealing with Coll & Geel if we didn't go 7yrs on both.
Good luck getting a better deal from those 2.
Fact of the matter is we know they're so tight with their cap they let Hopper explore his options even under contract.
So why should we give up someone like Brown under these. cumstances?

It's annoying consistently being overly nice guys at the trade table.

 

[zakazano]

You put a lot of thought into this post and im sorry in advance for not responding in kind.
However, I can assure you that no list manager would trade 4 for 14 and 21.
You can't use draft points in these types of scenarios.

surely that call comes down to perceived depth of a particular draft. If this year is 'weak' beyond the top 8 as I've heard from one or two pundits, then no. But if they are falling out of trees across all positions and that top group extends to 30, without any clear cream, it'd be a yes. However, the first option probably happens double the times of the latter.

 

[Groupie_]

dont think jim ross will get a game next year

 

[Meteoric Rise]

They could have easily be dealing with Coll & Geel if we didn't go 7yrs on both.
Good luck getting a better deal from those 2.
Fact of the matter is we know they're so tight with their cap they let Hopper explore his options even under contract.
So why should we give up someone like Brown under these. cumstances?

If I was Richmond I would just simply ask what is Hopper worth to us. And then pay it, both in salary and picks. If you don’t or cannot do that, then you are in the same position as all the other clubs, lining up in a queue around the block for bargains. The reason we are not in a queue is we are not shopping for bargains, we are shopping for things we need and prepared to pay the price.

So Brown like all other players has a value as do any picks we have at our disposal. If the seller wants a player and a pick if you think it is a value deal, you do it. If not, you may not get the player, we have seen these deals fall over before, and another club step in.

 

[Marcel Proust]

dont think jim ross will get a game next year

Hard to see how he fits in if graham is staying and sonsie has a decent pre season.

Would be a shame to lose him with cotchin , Dusty, prestia etc. Getting older but can't keep them all

 

[zakazano]

dont think jim ross will get a game next year

nor will Nigel Balta or Tim Lynch.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Interesting, I'd have no interest in Soldo at all and I think most of our board echo's that but Ralphsmith could be interesting as a wing/HB option

Ralphsmith, at this stage has the most upside and probably fits the needs of what you guys would be after

Great user of the ball and fantastic when he has space to use his speed
Limited contested/defensive ability but not horrible at the same time

Soldo is the one that would probably have the biggest impact, a very good tap ruck who is serviceable around the ground and seems to thrive when given more responsibility but given you guys have a few other rucks on the list not sure he is the right fit

Biggy (Nyuon) is another prospect, a very athletic utility that we have mainly played as a back at vfl level along with a few cameos in the ruck and up forward with him having a few decent moments in all positions but he’s still very raw

Mansell another back is more of your traditional small/medium defender who has a fantastic defensive game, but also has a hard edge that can land him in hot water from the mro

 

[59Stanley]

What we likely to give up for hopper?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I reckon future first and Soldo

 

[tiger_tough]

Interesting, I'd have no interest in Soldo at all and I think most of our board echo's that but Ralphsmith could be interesting as a wing/HB option

What about Castagna?

Not sure who else would be of interest tbh

 

[Chunky09]

We got pick 19 in ccj deal (rinse job)
That pick will push out a few due to F/S selections.
Yes we got Bolton at 19, but we also got ccj at 20 (maybe be a decent player)
And RCD at 20 (looks a bust)
As much as we’d all love to have only handed over the one pick or maybe have kept 19, remember we took 5 high picks last season, we are in a very good position.

 

[tigs2010]

How come you guys seem to think it'll be Ralphsmith? What's the connection there or reasoning behind it?

Hopefully it’s not him. But seems the type that’s a fringe player for us and may want more opportunity and maybe not a position that you guys are overloaded in.

 

[59Stanley]

We got pick 19 in ccj deal (rinse job)
That pick will push out a few due to F/S selections.
Yes we got Bolton at 19, but we also got ccj at 20 (maybe be a decent player)
And RCD at 20 (looks a bust)
As much as we’d all love to have only handed over the one pick or maybe have kept 19, remember we took 5 high picks last season, we are in a very good position.

We got Bolton later than 19 it was 29 I think

 

[Hendo_21]

What about Castagna?

Not sure who else would be of interest tbh

Would prefer Ralphsmith obviously but Castanga I wouldn't be too upset with, was really underrated during those peak years, probably hasn't been at his best the last couple offensively but does all the little things better then almost any other small in the comp