List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 7

[Lore]

Hello Tiger fans!

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

tugga you may like to sticky or merge this post, move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread.

 

[THE_GUN]

Dusty himself though could ask gold coast to trade, as ccj asked north for a fair trade in return for our support for him. And that probably ties in with gold coast academy picks. But prob around pick 10 I reckon?

Yeah he could and Gold coast would say here is pick #33

why would they give up a quality pick

 

[tiger_tough]

Unless I am sadly mistaken, there is no mid season draft in 2024. Therefore, Mutaz is going to play VFL all season and can’t be elevated to the AFL list.

there is

Maybe ash Johnson should be on our radar?

nah. soft.

I don't think we'd get a first round pick for Vlastuin. Maybe a mid 2nd round. I'm in the re-signing him boat.

I think Dusty, Baker and possibly Graham will look at a trade or leave to another club during the pre-season. Losing Vlastuin as well will be losing too much experience.

We don't want to end up like Melbourne in the late 00's where they got rid of too experience and compromised the development of the young players coming in (young players don't learn much from getting belted 10+ goals every game seasons in end).

I would like to see Dusty sign on, but I think he'll go the Gold Coast. I think the contract in front of him would be 700-800k a year over 3 years. I don't think that'll net a first rnd compo, but probably end of first rnd. We may end up matching and force a trade if we think we can get something better trade wise.

Baker should land us a first rnd pick and both Freo and West Coast should have draft pick capital to make the trade.

I think Graham is worth a late first or early 2nd pick if he asks for a trade too.

Based on this scenario it would mean we would have our first round pick (pick 5 based on our finishing position last year), mid first round pick for the Baker trade, end of 1st rnd compo for Dusty, early 2nd for Graham, our early 2nd pick, Freo early 2nd pick, our early 3rd rnd pick, West Coast early 3rd rnd pick, Freo early 3rd rnd pick.

If that is somewhat we end up with, it will give us a massive amount of leverage to trade with other clubs looking for points and trade up into the draft.

comfortably for a team in the window.

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

Jamarra is exactly what we need, elite key forward

 

[fargothegreat]

Dusty himself though could ask gold coast to trade, as ccj asked north for a fair trade in return for our support for him. And that probably ties in with gold coast academy picks. But prob around pick 10 I reckon?

GC has pick 20, which is probably about right for Dusty. Reckon he probably goes as a FA though.

 

[Noidnadroj]

For anyone against bringing in loads of youth at end of 2024 .. draft, rookies etc… and saying goodbye to old stalwarts like Pickett and Macca, consider Sydney tonight with players they brought in as kids:

Warner: pick #39 in 2019
Gulden : pick #32 in 2020 (match academy bid)
McInerney : #44 2018 draft
Cunningham: rookie elevation 2012
Papley: 2015 rookie draft
Lloyd: 2012 rookie draft
Rowbottom: #25 2018 draft
McCartin: #33 2017 draft
Roberts: #34 2021 draft
Rampe; rookie elevation 2013
Fox: 2016 rookie draft
McLean: SSP recruit 2019
Hayward: #21 national draft 2016
Melican: 2014 rookie draft
Amartey: 2017 rookie draft
Wicks: Cat-B rookie 2019

That’s 16 players taken outside the top-20 of draft as kids… most of them taken well outside the top-20.

And look how long it has taken many of those players to establish themselves as high quality players … for many it has been a 6+ year journey.

Of course the higher the pick the greater the
odds of getting a gun. But we may as well clean out a large number of 30yo+ players and the younger players who clearly aren’t up to the level and take plenty of kids via every avenue we can ASAP.

If that means we turn over 9-10 from the list, I’m all for it.

Even if Dusty leaves, Baker leaves, Graham leaves, Grimes/Prestia retire etc… we don’t need to keep C-grade oldies like Pickett and Macca for experience, as we will have a large core of very experienced senior players without them:

Lynch
Vlastuin
Nank
Short
Rioli
Bolton
Balta
TT
Hopper

And then other mid-20’s players like Ross, Young, Miller.

Guess how many 200-game players Carlton had in their team Thursday night? Zero. They had 12 players under 100-games. We had nine.

Hopefully Yze is just assessing who to cull … and in the off-season goes bang!



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[RockJobster0312]

I know how it works. I ‘am’ suggesting we take 6-7 kids in the draft - 4-5 in the top-30 then another couple of speculative late ones. Then maybe a free agent. And then a rookie elevation and leave a spot for a preseason pick and then a mid-season pick.

The money we save on a 3 x draftees instead of Pickett, Macca and Broad for example ($800k per season) we front end TT, Hopper etc… and reduce our exposure and build a war chest.

I’m only suggesting we move on 30yo+ C and B graders. And keep Baker and Dusty … only trade if they request it.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Again, it comes down to maximizing the best opportunities you have to bring in elite talent, which I don’t think your strategy does.

Any strategy also has to have an eye towards to 2025; where there’ll still be list changes required (minimum three). You cull nine now, you’re really culling 12 over two years. Maybe there will be an additional three that are obvious next year, but that’s a dangerous assumption.

If we’re able to bring in a few players by trade and free agency and a couple of list elevations as I said before a different equation.

But it’s difficult to have 4-5 picks in the top 30. Yes we’ve done it before, as has other teams (generally with the help of the AFL), but our current provisional draft order is 6, 25, 26, 39, 43, 44, 62, 70, 74, 80.

There’s obviously a bunch of moving parts, but those will get pushed back (some mock drafts have around 8 father-sons and Northern Academy players in the top 25), which if it holds true; will move those around with possibly only one, maybe two picks being inside the top 30.

It was mentioned around the conclusion of the 2023 draft by the likes of Hartley and Matt Clarke that with the changes to F/S bidding coming in at 2025, the whole mass picks to match points will change for the 2025. It is possible that the 2024 draft is the last where teams can bank picks in an effort to trade a bunch of picks for a high FRP. Richmond has one of the current highest points allocation in the draft. The strategy mentioned by Hartley at the time was that it would look to leverage its points to get additional high picks (Carlton, GC Academy players, Adelaide all look to have FRP talent). Either we are able to do it, and a lot of those second and third rounders get absorbed into a top 10-15 pick, or they don’t and those picks all get pushed out.

Long story short, in either scenario the last few picks are likely going to be closer to 60 than 40.

Would it not be better to strategically manage your list so that instead of say four top 35 picks and three 50+ in one season you’re able to get say six top 35 picks over two years and one 50+? Especially as those players all get an automatic two year contract?

I’d also add that one additional year to three players over 30+ is highly unlikely to cost you $800k, nor does it stop you from creating a ‘war chest’ and loading contracts in a manner to bring over players (like we did with Lynch [back end]).

Another wrinkle is that there is a high chance mid-season trading comes in from 2025. There is a world where teams see players on one year contracts that fill an immediate need as worth trading for (common in NBA, MLB and NFL), so having a few may not necessarily work against us.

For anyone against bringing in loads of youth at end of 2024 .. draft, rookies etc… and saying goodbye to old stalwarts like Pickett and Macca, consider Sydney tonight with players they brought in as kids:

Warner: pick #39 in 2019
Gulden : pick #32 in 2020 (match academy bid)
McInerney : #44 2018 draft
Cunningham: rookie elevation 2012
Papley: 2015 rookie draft
Lloyd: 2012 rookie draft
Rowbottom: #25 2018 draft
McCartin: #33 2017 draft
Roberts: #34 2021 draft
Rampe; rookie elevation 2013
Fox: 2016 rookie draft
McLean: SSP recruit 2019
Hayward: #21 national draft 2016
Melican: 2014 rookie draft
Amartey: 2017 rookie draft
Wicks: Cat-B rookie 2019

That’s 16 players taken outside the top-20 of draft as kids… most of them taken well outside the top-20.

And look how long it has taken many of those players to establish themselves as high quality players … for many it has been a 6+ year journey.

Of course the higher the pick the greater the
odds of getting a gun. But we may as well clean out a large number of 30yo+ players and the younger players who clearly aren’t up to the level and take plenty of kids via every avenue we can ASAP.

If that means we turn over 9-10 from the list, I’m all for it.

Even if Dusty leaves, Baker leaves, Graham leaves, Grimes/Prestia retire etc… we don’t need to keep C-grade oldies like Pickett and Macca for experience, as we will have a large core of very experienced senior players without them:

Lynch
Vlastuin
Nank
Short
Rioli
Bolton
Balta
TT
Hopper

And then other mid-20’s players like Ross, Young, Miller.

Guess how many 200-game players Carlton had in their team Thursday night? Zero. They had 12 players under 100-games. We had nine.

Hopefully Yze is just assessing who to cull … and in the off-season goes bang!



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

You’ve used a range here of over ten years. If you go through every pick that Sydney had during that period you’ll find that Sydney have had a lot of misses during this period with later picks. Law of averages say that there will always be players picked in the last part of drafts, SSP, PSD and MSD (and Cat B) that make it. But statistically speaking, the majority won’t.

I’d also note 30% of those players were top 40 picks (I.e. likely second round picks) and only one a post 40 pick in the National Draft. What you’re suggesting in your mass cull idea and what I’ve tried to explain above is that a fair chunk of those picks will be closer to 60 than to 40 where statistically speaking, you’re more likely to miss than to hit.

We also have 23 1-4 year players, so a massive one year youth injection isn’t necessarily a massive need.

Lastly, I hope I’m not coming off as attacking you. My apologies if I am. I genuinely enjoy this debate. I get your point, and I don’t disagree that the players you’ve mentioned deserve to be cut. My arguement is that it’s best to maximize the quality of position the replacement players come from; which is most likely over multiple drafts and not via one ‘all eggs in one basket’ style draft.

 

[Bojangles17]

Yeah he could and Gold coast would say here is pick #33

why would they give up a quality pick

If they were losing a FA themselves

 

[Muddiemoose]

Jamarra is exactly what we need, elite key forward

No doubt
Would have him in a heartbeat

But at what cost?
If we could get away with a decent and a late first round pick I wouldn’t worry but let’s be honest

Dogs will want a lot more and fair enough as well

 

[fargothegreat]

No doubt
Would have him in a heartbeat

But at what cost?
If we could get away with a decent and a late first round pick I wouldn’t worry but let’s be honest

Dogs will want a lot more and fair enough as well

Well just have to finish last so we can take him in the PSD

 

[Truetiger]

No doubt
Would have him in a heartbeat

But at what cost?
If we could get away with a decent and a late first round pick I wouldn’t worry but let’s be honest

Dogs will want a lot more and fair enough as well

If not him, I would entertain McDonald from Sydney. Unlikely I know but kid can play

 

[juss]

GC has pick 20, which is probably about right for Dusty. Reckon he probably goes as a FA though.

GC would not give any pick, unless they are losing a FA and want to protect that compo. I can't think of any they're losing.

If Dusty wants to leave we get nothing other than a possible token compo pick, which would be a junk pick given his age.

 

[tora tora tora]

For anyone against bringing in loads of youth at end of 2024 .. draft, rookies etc… and saying goodbye to old stalwarts like Pickett and Macca, consider Sydney tonight with players they brought in as kids:

Warner: pick #39 in 2019
Gulden : pick #32 in 2020 (match academy bid)
McInerney : #44 2018 draft
Cunningham: rookie elevation 2012
Papley: 2015 rookie draft
Lloyd: 2012 rookie draft
Rowbottom: #25 2018 draft
McCartin: #33 2017 draft
Roberts: #34 2021 draft
Rampe; rookie elevation 2013
Fox: 2016 rookie draft
McLean: SSP recruit 2019
Hayward: #21 national draft 2016
Melican: 2014 rookie draft
Amartey: 2017 rookie draft
Wicks: Cat-B rookie 2019

That’s 16 players taken outside the top-20 of draft as kids… most of them taken well outside the top-20.

And look how long it has taken many of those players to establish themselves as high quality players … for many it has been a 6+ year journey.

Of course the higher the pick the greater the
odds of getting a gun. But we may as well clean out a large number of 30yo+ players and the younger players who clearly aren’t up to the level and take plenty of kids via every avenue we can ASAP.

If that means we turn over 9-10 from the list, I’m all for it.

Even if Dusty leaves, Baker leaves, Graham leaves, Grimes/Prestia retire etc… we don’t need to keep C-grade oldies like Pickett and Macca for experience, as we will have a large core of very experienced senior players without them:

Lynch
Vlastuin
Nank
Short
Rioli
Bolton
Balta
TT
Hopper

And then other mid-20’s players like Ross, Young, Miller.

Guess how many 200-game players Carlton had in their team Thursday night? Zero. They had 12 players under 100-games. We had nine.

Hopefully Yze is just assessing who to cull … and in the off-season goes bang!



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Who to cull.
I can't see Dusty (his personality) Baker, (his stature ) Graham ( first 22 in Dimma, Mini & Yze's teams) getting picked up by other clubs.


Broad, Grimes & Prestia maybe.

More likely , AFL players in the VFL Cumbo, Ryan, Green, et al

 

[Frank Grimes]

GC would not give any pick, unless they are losing a FA and want to protect that compo. I can't think of any they're losing.

If Dusty wants to leave we get nothing other than a possible token compo pick, which would be a junk pick given his age.

While I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's more weighted towards salary than age. I think it is speculative because I don't think a 32 with what is likely a high salary (700-800k my guess) has gone via free agency previously. Keep in mind a player who is late 20's being offered 800k would likely get first rnd compo based on indicators in the past.

Regardless, I'm more than happy to match what is offered to Dusty to either keep him (we'd have a pick before GC anyway) or to trade for their pick 20.

 

[tigerfan1961]

While I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's more wieghted towards salary than age. I think it is speculative because I don't think a 32 with what is likely a high salary (800k my guess) has gone via free agency previously.

Regardless, I'm more than happy to match what is offered to Dusty to either keep him (we'd have a pick before GC anyway) or to trade for their pick 20.

I didn’t think we are able to match any offer he accepts as he’s an unrestricted free agent? Could be wrong though

 

[Frank Grimes]

I didn’t think we are able to match any offer he accepts as he’s an unrestricted free agent? Could be wrong though

Is he unrestricted? I thought that players in the top 20% of salary are restricted free agents. I think Dusty is our highest paid player which easily puts him in the top 20%.

 

[tiger_tough]

Is he unrestricted? I thought that players in the top 20% of salary are restricted free agents. I think Dusty is our highest paid player which easily puts him in the top 20%.

Thats correct after 8 years. After 10 years at one club you're unrestricted regardless of contract.

 

[guruisatiger]

Finish bottom 3 jamara in pre season draft
First round pick for Bakes( they have 3 ) to Fremantle
Second round pick compensation for jgti
Free agency
Bundle 2x Second round picks for Carlton 1st
Bundle 1x Second + 2x3rd round picks for Brisbane 1st
Dustin Martin to sons for there end of round 1 compensation pick they got from roos
Plus there Second round pick
We end up with
Our own first round pick
One of Fremantle first round picks
Carlton first round pick
Brisbane first round pick
Gold Coast end of round 1 pick
Gold Coast 2nd round pick

 

[_RT_]

Here's a thought, could Dusty decide to retire at seasons end?

He'll be 33 with 300+ games and all the accolades.

If Richmond look like being a rebuilding side still why would he uproot himself from his life in Melbourne to head to the Gold Coast, where there would be a heap of focus on him as the Suns look to make a run at finals and a possible flag. It would seem like the perfect time to call it a day and let the club move in to the future with the focus going to the next generation.

 

[SumTingWong]

Maybe ash Johnson should be on our radar?

What's worse is that you vote

 

[juss]

While I'm not 100% sure, but I think it's more weighted towards salary than age. I think it is speculative because I don't think a 32 with what is likely a high salary (700-800k my guess) has gone via free agency previously. Keep in mind a player who is late 20's being offered 800k would likely get first rnd compo based on indicators in the past.

Regardless, I'm more than happy to match what is offered to Dusty to either keep him (we'd have a pick before GC anyway) or to trade for their pick 20.

He's not an RFA, we can't match.

 

[Hamsatma]

Here's a thought, could Dusty decide to retire at seasons end?

He'll be 33 with 300+ games and all the accolades.

If Richmond look like being a rebuilding side still why would he uproot himself from his life in Melbourne to head to the Gold Coast, where there would be a heap of focus on him as the Suns look to make a run at finals and a possible flag. It would seem like the perfect time to call it a day and let the club move in to the future with the focus going to the next generation.

I wouldn't be surprised at all, to be honest I'd be more surprised if he went to a club like the gold coast. He did have a good relationship with Dimma it seemed but by the time he left it looks like a lot of those relationships were fairly frayed so there's no guarantee that the relationship is still strong. A lot of it depends how well he performs this year

 

[tigers12]

In all seriousness it looks like bakes will be heading home what do you guys think he would bring
Also I’m all for trading Bolton he is too inconsistent and hasn’t learnt to stop show boating I think he would bring 3 first rounders isn’t that what Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

went for for ?
I would move on kmac , Pickett I don’t care about the 100 games now
Prestia and grimes retire and maybe dusty
Broad may want to go home as well
We are in the box seat to do a rebuild through the draft while also saving money and get quality free agents in

 

[two blue tiger]

Dusty is not a mercenary like Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

36

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

- who left the team that gave him a career to chase more glory with the Sookies.
The #4 sees out his time at the Tiges.

 

[lizard man]

What's worse is that you vote

 

[lizard man]

We still might have an okay season but we really need to address young talent ….. I think most people would agree we need more of this and that should be the priority at the end of the year