Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Rotayjay]

I can’t see Trump giving Ukraine more license to bomb Russia. Trump will want to negotiate a deal, not potentially start WW3. Best bet for Ukraine now is Europe, or uprising in Russia (due to degrading economy and war death toll).

I agree that there is no way a less pro-Ukraine Trump Administration absolutely will not want further incursions into Russia. It remains unlikey and probably just sabre-rattling, but the more you touch Russian territory, the more you risk Putin pushing the nuclear button.

I think he'd be most likely to push it as a kind of murder-suicide if he's about to be ousted. But how many checks and balances are there? If the Russian president wants a nuclear strike, what are the chances of the military top brass telling him to **** off?

You may think I'm obsessed about a very unlikely scenario, but nuclear war would be so devastating that it warrants extreme caution.

 

[Mobbs]

Hi Rotayjay , thanks for creating this original thread a couple years ago.

It's hard to put yourself in the shoes of an ordinary Ukrainian punter. Do you want the the bombing, the conscription, the power outages, the heating outages and the fear over with, even if it means giving up 20% of your country? To what extent would you personally fear that Putin will be back again soon?

Putin is effectively torturing the entire Ukrainian civilian population by exacting misery, fear, injury and death. It's a natural human reaction to want the torture to stop, even if it means (say) confessing to a crime you didn't commit.

True, but it's a small world - these days you can just ask a Ukrainian. I'll quickly dot point everything you said based on past conversations with those I've chatted with:
Do you want the bombing: no.
Do you support the conscription: 50/50 split (mostly differences over the minutia of how it's applied).
Do you want the power/heating outages over with: yes.
Do you want the power/heating outages over with in exchange for giving up 20% of your country: no.
Do you personally fear Putin will be back again: yes (everyone takes it as a given).
(Most Ukrainians I speak with are all pro-defence, save 1 who is full-on Girkin apologist and 1 who is extremely critical of the military training Ukrainians are given (which criticism seems to be well-founded), which they posit has resulted in the essentially direct death of at least one of their friends.

By the way you can also ask a Russian, though in 90% of cases, they'll not want to discuss it with a westerner because they fear their conversations are monitored (at least on a random pick basis). I know one who is outright anti-invasion, and 1 who might be outright pro- but might be putting on a show for the next time their phone is examined by an authority.

Unrelated: I've just hit some dodgy key combo while lying on 1 elbow and now every time I press an arrow key my mouse pointer moves as well as my text cursor. Edit: Was something to do with MS Paint.

 

[CD Xbow]

Hi Rotayjay , thanks for creating this original thread a couple years ago.



True, but it's a small world - these days you can just ask a Ukrainian. I'll quickly dot point everything you said based on past conversations with those I've chatted with:
Do you want the bombing: no.
Do you support the conscription: 50/50 split (mostly differences over the minutia of how it's applied).
Do you want the power/heating outages over with: yes.
Do you want the power/heating outages over with in exchange for giving up 20% of your country: no.
Do you personally fear Putin will be back again: yes (everyone takes it as a given).
(Most Ukrainians I speak with are all pro-defence, save 1 who is full-on Girkin apologist and 1 who is extremely critical of the military training Ukrainians are given (which criticism seems to be well-founded), which they posit has resulted in the essentially direct death of at least one of their friends.

By the way you can also ask a Russian, though in 90% of cases, they'll not want to discuss it with a westerner because they fear their conversations are monitored (at least on a random pick basis). I know one who is outright anti-invasion, and 1 who might be outright pro- but might be putting on a show for the next time their phone is examined by an authority.

Unrelated: I've just hit some dodgy key combo while lying on 1 elbow and now every time I press an arrow key my mouse pointer moves as well as my text cursor. Edit: Was something to do with MS Paint.

Do you want to have a space program? The Ars rocket report says it's quietest year since 1961. Another fine achievement of stupid Putin.

'This was only the 13th orbital launch by Russia this year, trailing far behind the United States and China. We know of two more Soyuz flights planned for later this month, but no more, barring a surprise military launch (which is possible). The projected launch rate puts Russia on pace for its quietest year of launch activity since 1961, the year Yuri Gagarin became the first person to fly in space. A major reason for this decline in launches is the decisions of Western governments and companies to move their payloads off of Russian rockets after the invasion of Ukraine. For example, OneWeb stopped launching on Soyuz in 2022, and the European Space Agency suspended its partnership with Russia to launch Soyuz rockets from French Guiana.'

 

[wannabejack]

...
Do you personally fear Putin will be back again: yes (everyone takes it as a given).
...

We all know that he (russia) will be back. Even those supporting russia’s invasion know that. Ukraine would need a rock solid guarantee of no future russian invasion. Being allowed to join NATO is Ukraine’s best bet but even that may not be rock solid.
The only land that Ukraine might “give away” is to provide a buffer zone between russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine can take a leaf out of South Korea’s (and Poland’s) book and build up their military and defence industry because there are no real guarantees for them (Budapest Memorandum).

 

[Mobbs]

We all know that he (russia) will be back. Even those supporting russia’s invasion know that. Ukraine would need a rock solid guarantee of no future russian invasion. Being allowed to join NATO is Ukraine’s best bet but even that may not be rock solid.
The only land that Ukraine might “give away” is to provide a buffer zone between russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine can take a leaf out of South Korea’s (and Poland’s) book and build up their military and defence industry because there are no real guarantees for them (Budapest Memorandum).

I was specifically sharing what Ukrainians I know tell me. Was just replying to rotayjay's query, to layer what they actually say, over what our guesses re their opinion might be.

 

[wannabejack]

I was specifically sharing what Ukrainians I know tell me. Was just replying to rotayjay's query, to layer what they actually say, over what our guesses re their opinion might be.

Sorry.
Reading the first 2 sentences again I would have worded them differently. They do sound patronizing (is that the right word). It was just meant as a general statement. I just used it as a lead in to my thoughts.

I thought your reply was informative. It’s good to have you post here describing conversations you have with Ukrainians and russians you’ve talked with.

 

[Mobbs]

Sorry.
Reading the first 2 sentences again I would have worded them differently. They do sound patronizing (is that the right word). It was just meant as a general statement. I just used it as a lead in to my thoughts.

I thought your reply was informative. It’s good to have you post here describing conversations you have with Ukrainians and russians you’ve talked with.

Wasn't patronizing. As a general statement I agree with you for sure. The only way Putin will not be back, is if something is very different this time, to the previous half dozen times his RF has attacked and absorbed neighbouring territories.

Devil's advocate: Could Putin possibly not rinse and repeat? Perhaps, just perhaps, the reality that Ukraine finally got some semblance of global attention and outrage (whereas Georgia, Chechnya, Transnistria etc, got merely soggy tissue slaps) MIGHT cause Putin to adjust the tack of his m.o.

However as we've already seen him meddling in Moldovan elections, Georgian elections (again), and engineering threats to military infrastructure throughout Europe through the sabotage efforts and incendiary devices on planes, Russian complicity in false bomb threats in US elections (also there were bomb threats at diaspora poll locations for Moldovan elections including the UK) - it does appear that its the same recipe now as it was prior the 2022 invasion.

I would say the brazen attacks on civilian / residential Ukraine, myriad reports of thermal and other war criminal munitions, executions of POWs - barely even denied anymore - suggests Putin barely believes anyone has the balls to oppose him strongly enough to stop. There are no signs of the rinse and repeat process getting quieter, let alone phased out. (all just my opinion)

 

[wannabejack]

HK's TVB pulls show after netizens accuse it of being pro-Ukraine

A Hong Kong broadcaster has cancelled a documentary series on global conflicts after online backlash, with comments accusing it of being pro-Ukraine.

hongkongfp.com

 

[wannabejack]

Google reveals Ukrainian military aircraft operating from Polish soil

Observers of Google Earth/Maps turned their attention to Poland and uncovered significant details about the presence of Ukrainian military transport aircraft.

bulgarianmilitary.com

However, it turns out that the issue extends beyond Ukraine itself. The focus has shifted to Poland, a key Ukrainian ally that has been providing military assistance to Ukraine since the outset of the war. Observers of Google Earth and Google Maps turned their attention to Polish territory and, in doing so, uncovered significant details about the presence of Ukrainian military transport aircraft stationed at a Polish Air Force base

 

[Jello_B]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

 

[swingdog]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

How much do you trust Putin?

 

[Jello_B]

How much do you trust Putin?

I trust him to look after his self interest. Find a balanced outcome that has some benefit for Russia (which will most likely be economic).

 

[Mobbs]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

I don't understand why you're pluralising a singular...

 

[Aussie in exile]

I trust him to look after his self interest. Find a balanced outcome that has some benefit for Russia (which will most likely be economic).

You and others keep forgetting that Putin invaded Ukraine illegally.

 

[Aussie in exile]

I get that. How realistic is it for a president to override congress though? Examples?

And would Trump withhold aid for Israel? Don't think so. It's all in the one package.

Russia suffers its worst month since its illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia suffers worst month for casualties, says UK defence chief

Putin's troops suffered on average about 1,500 dead or injured a day in October, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin claims.

www.bbc.com

 

[wannabejack]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

Here’s a novel idea how about we start with the Russian military and authorities not commiting war crimes, such as deliberate attacks against civilian targets, including on hospitals, medical facilities and on the energy grid; indiscriminate attacks on densely-populated areas; the abduction, torture and murder of civilians; forced deportations; sexual violence; destruction of cultural heritage; and the killing and torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

What is your novel idea for handling war criminals. Russian brutality against Ukrainians has been striking.

 

[Andre]

If the premise is a country can willingly give up territory, then if Ukraine 'has to' give up territory for a peace, what's to stop them 'giving up' a bit more, but this time to a NATO country? Ie. if the borders change to what Russia holds, then why not Ukraine give up a 2 km wide strip to Poland (as the most obvious choice), all around it's territory? (With a 'hand back in 20 years agreement'). Then Russia to restart the war would have to invade across NATO territory to resume.

Of course, even if the Polish and Ukrainians were ok with the idea, the bedwetters in Germany and the US would freak out.

 

[swingdog]

I trust him to look after his self interest. Find a balanced outcome that has some benefit for Russia (which will most likely be economic).

His self interest, from his point of view, is to destroy Ukraine.

 

[Fire]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

So basically Russia get everything and everyone died for nothing.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

Explain to me and others why Ukraine should compromise anything with Russia when Russia invaded Ukraine illegally.
Shouldn't Russian withdraw all its troops from Ukrainian land before there is even talk of a compromise?

 

[Aussie in exile]

So basically Russia get everything and everyone died for nothing.

And the losses are mounting for Russia

Russia suffers worst month for casualties, says UK defence chief

Putin's troops suffered on average about 1,500 dead or injured a day in October, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin claims.

www.bbc.com

 

[Baldur]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

You are correct that it is completely fanciful notion. Meanwhile these of us who live in the real world where murderous tyrants have no intention of ceasing attacking their neighbors unless they are stopped by force, can have a discussion based on reality.

 

[Baldur]

I trust him to look after his self interest. Find a balanced outcome that has some benefit for Russia (which will most likely be economic).

This is the self interest Putin is willing to settle for. He simply is not interested in any form of balanced outcome.

 

[Jello_B]

I don't understand why you're pluralising a singular...

There are innocent people being killed on each side.

 

[Mobbs]

Military base in Rostov region destroyed by Ukrainian strike.