Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[jatz14]

Russia holds 20% of Ukraine

From press ganging the military aged males that haven't fleed

Source?

So soviet era shit is cool as long as it's in Ukranian hands?

Neither side has moved

They hold territory that Ukraine demands back, that's the issue

So stalemate? negotiations?

Press ganging, multiple conscriptions, asking western Europe to deport military aged males, multiple begging runs for NATO weapons, slowly losing ground on various fronts, no counter attacks for a year etc

A sign of inevitability, unless we do WW3

Russia does hold 20% of Ukraine. It did hold more. So we are agreed, Russia is going backward?

Its a draft. You know, like the UK wants to reintroduce. And only those over 25 are eligible. Like we had. Why is it suddenly press ganging when Ukraine does it? In an existential war no less, we did it to blow up Vietnamese people.

Well, I would point out its fighting tanks that are in the main, no better. And, a tank is a tank is a tank. If you have a T64, and the other guy has a rifle, you win. A T64 is not as good as a Leopard 2 or a Challenger, but its better than not having a tank. I was just pointing out that the supply of tanks that don't come from the West, is fairly large. On account of your insistence that Ukraine doesn't have anything.

I thought we agreed, Russia is going backward? Or do you just mean in the period where neither side has moved, after Russia went backwards, no side has moved? This I will agree with, the static part of this war over the last 2 years has seen no real movement.

Russians are going to keep dying in those lands Russia holds until such time as this war ends, thats the issue.

Not a stalemate. Russia is invading Ukraine. Them not moving isn't a stalemate, its them losing. They know this, even if you don't. Its why they keep throwing meat waves at new offensives.

The draft. Getting supplies from international suppliers and supporters. So how neutral language makes it sound so different, than inflammatory biased language? Not counterattacking, because they know that Russia needs breakthroughs, and the only tactic they have is meatwaves. How long can Ukraine kill 1000 Russians a day before Russians start to question why so many die for 20% of Ukraine?

Why do Vatniks keep talking about Ukraine slowly losing ground, when Russia makes tiny gains, but never talk about Russia slowly using ground when Ukraine makes tine advances? It seems odd. Is it a rule?

 

[jatz14]

Not really a great claim to fame for the worlds second largest "super power".

They were going to take Kiev in a week or 2. Now, Ukraine has to give up, because Russia holding 20% of Ukraine after 3 years of an offensive war, means Ukraine is losing.

I mean, Germany overran a lot more than 20% of Europe, and England and the still free parts of Europe relied on aid coming in from outside. How stupid of them, they should have just stopped fighting and negotiated a deal giving Hitler what he wanted.

 

[jatz14]

You just made that up. They will get missile tech but thats silly, literately the easiest bit

Nah, they're giving it to both as part of the settling lines for WW3

Sending sappers, this counts as troops. NK will like this tbh, bit of experience under fire

I thought they were a defensive alliance?

Yeh they had too much fun in Vietnam, need to be fair about the murder things

I didnt make it up, although I concede its informed speculation and not an established fact. And putting multiple independent warheads on a missile isn't easy, and is something NK has failed to do, and its tech they have failed to steal. Its also the case that its tech that China hasn't given them, for the reason that they don't want them to have it and don't trust them with it. The possibility Russia will give it to them is going to make them very unhappy.

Its also a sign that Putin doesn't share your opinion about the war. What sort of language do you use when Ukraine appeals for supplies? Begging, crawling? Putin is begging and crawling. To NK. How humiliating. It must be devastating to someone with an ego like Putin's.

Nato is a defensive alliance, and it wouldn't be hard to justify putting troops in Ukraine as a act of self defence if Putin starts dragging in other countries. Also, if Poland decides to send troops, it doesn't need Natos permission. And if Nato decided to put more personnel and equipment in a country like Poland, that would also be totally OK.

SK did have fun in Vietnam. Like Russian soldiers had fun killing their officers after too much pointless dying in WW1, if we are bringing up irrelevant historic conflicts in place of actual arguments.

 

[Mobbs]

Footage of an M2 Bradley landing an assault group under the cover of its 25mm in the Novobakhmutivka area of the Donetsk region [Denys Davysdov TG]

View attachment IMG_7402.mov

 

[Mobbs]

"On June 25, Ukrainian soldiers returned home after being released from Russian captivity. This is their physical state." [Denys Davydov TG]



A Ukrainian soldier of the 110th died in a Russian prison after 2 year captivity. His wife received only 1 letter during the entire period. His cellmates told that he was beaten every day for refusing to speak russian. No idea why the **** our government let russian POWs call their families and also buy them cigarettes. [Denys Davydov TG]

 

[RonSon]

They were going to take Kiev in a week or 2. Now, Ukraine has to give up, because Russia holding 20% of Ukraine after 3 years of an offensive war, means Ukraine is losing.

I mean, Germany overran a lot more than 20% of Europe, and England and the still free parts of Europe relied on aid coming in from outside. How stupid of them, they should have just stopped fighting and negotiated a deal giving Hitler what he wanted.

Civilians were dying. England and Europe should have done whatever was necessary to stop Germany killing them. Including unconditional surrender.

 

[Mobbs]

Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roscosmos, calls for total destruction of everything Ukrainian.

Rogozin was replaced as Roscosmos head in July 2022. He's known for some extreme remarks including referring Lloyd Austin to a gorilla (2024) and calling for Russia to attack Ukraine with "space missiles" (2023). He's also the same guy suffered a case of shrapnel-butt in 2023.

Unsure if Putin distances himself from Rogozin's periodical outbursts.

Russian official calls for total destruction of 'everything Ukrainian'

There can be "no truce" with Ukrainians, Dmitry Rogozin said, because "any truce, let alone reconciliation, is certain death for our children and grandchildren."

kyivindependent.com

 

[Zidane98]

More great work by Putin restricting the expansion of NATO



That's gotta sting from a recently departed CSTO member.

I guess Putin can always call up North Korea as a new CSTO member and paint it as a geopolitical masterstroke...

 

[jatz14]

"On June 25, Ukrainian soldiers returned home after being released from Russian captivity. This is their physical state." [Denys Davydov TG]
View attachment 2034497View attachment 2034498View attachment 2034499View attachment 2034500


A Ukrainian soldier of the 110th died in a Russian prison after 2 year captivity. His wife received only 1 letter during the entire period. His cellmates told that he was beaten every day for refusing to speak russian. No idea why the **** our government let russian POWs call their families and also buy them cigarettes. [Denys Davydov TG]
View attachment 2034502

Apparently the way to end suffering Is to put Ukrainians in the hands of people who will torture you if you speak Ukrainian.

Of course, that will happen behind closed doors, maybe to some, if I cannot see it, I don't have to worry about it.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

Rheinmetall

Rheinmetall has received a framework contract from the Bundeswehr for the delivery of 155mm artillery ammunition worth up to €8.5 billion gross.

www.rheinmetall.com

Largest order in the Rheinmetall’s company history.

Deliveries are to begin at the start of 2025. The primary purchaser will be the Federal Republic of Germany, which will provide part of the supplies to the Ukraine. Additionally, the partner countries of the Netherlands, Estonia and Denmark are also participating in the order.

 

[wannabejack]

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kyiv with up to eight Patriot air defence systems, dramatically improving its ability to counter Russian air strikes.

Former officials and analysts said the Israeli systems would most likely be sold back to the US, which could then send them on to Ukraine.

But they added that the bigger question is whether Israel is prepared to alienate its on-off ally Russia, despite Moscow’s ever-closer relationship with Iran.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

how worried will Ukraine be with what is happening in France?

 

[Spearman]

"There are 21 countries which state their official language as Spanish: Spain, Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Equatorial Guinea."

I guess they are all part of a Spanish Federation?

I'm waiting for the Frenchies to attack the Canadian Maritimes to the help the Quebecois.

 

[Upstart Swan]

how worried will Ukraine be with what is happening in France?

Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president, has said that his party will continue to support Ukraine and opposes Russian "imperialism". But he has also ruled out sending French troops (something Macron wouldn't rule out) or sending longer range missiles.

No matter what the election results, Macron will remain Commander-in-Chief as French President.

 

[Baldur]

Stalemate? Nuh

 

[Saint]

Jordan Bardella, the National Rally president, has said that his party will continue to support Ukraine and opposes Russian "imperialism". But he has also ruled out sending French troops (something Macron wouldn't rule out) or sending longer range missiles.

No matter what the election results, Macron will remain Commander-in-Chief as French President.

I would imagine that if the situation in Ukraine deteriorated so much that Euro nations decided to sent troops (unlikely to be infantry), they could walk back these comments and mention how things have changed.

In the current quagmire, only Putin who doesn't value Russian or Ukrainian lives, or Ukrainians who value Ukrainian lives are willing to put their lives on the line.

It reminds me of the Vietnam War. the Russia troops are forced forward, know they don't want to be there and just want their tour to be over with. While their enemy is fighting for their lives and nation. Much like the lies told to the US public, the lies of the Russians won't be able to be told forever. There's no way the official Ruble price is legit.

Russia, Iran and NK are hiding how much gold Russia has been sent out of Russia's reserves. Not the least because it includes money being sent to Hezbollah and the Houthis.

 

[Aussie in exile]

How the mighty have fallen. Under Putin, Russia is not only kowtowing to the undoubted power of Beijing, but now also comes as a supplicant to North Korea. For Kim this is an untold chance as he can demand a lot in exchange for unreliable ammunition and missiles with questionable accuracy - the latter still being an impressive feat for a country too poor to feed its own population. Kim must know that the Russians were willing to pay Russia's Iranian ally in gold for its Shahed-136 drones. He will drive a hard bargain for his support. But these are the kind of allies Russia has.

We aren't at that colossal wreck of Russia yet, so much is certain. This Summer will remain tough and the result of the American Presidential election can reshuffle the cards dramatically. But if Putin feels forced to come out of his protective shell and travel all the way to North Korea to look for help in a pariah state, he is not as confident of Russia's odds as he tries to project.

From:

Frederik Mertens on LinkedIn: How the mighty have fallen. Under Putin, Russia is not only kowtowing to…

How the mighty have fallen. Under Putin, Russia is not only kowtowing to the undoubted power of Beijing, but now also comes as a supplicant to North Korea. For…

www.linkedin.com

Edit: From another article.
What it does illustrate is that despite what Putin might like to portray, the longer Russia becomes embroiled in this war of attrition, they’ll become as dependent on external support as Ukraine.
Just to repeat : How the mighty have fallen.

Russia in having to pay North Korea in oil to pay for the weapons that North Kores has given so that means Russia can't get money from selling some of its oil.

 

[Aussie in exile]

I would imagine that if the situation in Ukraine deteriorated so much that Euro nations decided to sent troops (unlikely to be infantry), they could walk back these comments and mention how things have changed.

In the current quagmire, only Putin who doesn't value Russian or Ukrainian lives, or Ukrainians who value Ukrainian lives are willing to put their lives on the line.

It reminds me of the Vietnam War. the Russia troops are forced forward, know they don't want to be there and just want their tour to be over with. While their enemy is fighting for their lives and nation. Much like the lies told to the US public, the lies of the Russians won't be able to be told forever. There's no way the official Ruble price is legit.

Russia, Iran and NK are hiding how much gold Russia has been sent out of Russia's reserves. Not the least because it includes money being sent to Hezbollah and the Houthis.

No male members of Putins or Lavrovs families are serving on the Russian front line, and i have serious doubts if any are in any Russian armed forces at all.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Stalemate? Nuh

Russia is running out of tanks. its been well documented.

 

[Visions]

Russia will be over the moon about this.

6 months of gains in their much vaunted offensive on the Kreminna front, gone in a puff of smoke.

 

[Baldur]

At the beginning of the invasion there were few drones on the battlefield, now they are everywhere. The losses rate for drones is very high, mostly due to electronic countermeasures. If there was no need to communicate with the drone than jamming would be useless. This is coming.

 

[LittleG]

At the beginning of the invasion there were few drones on the battlefield, now they are everywhere. The losses rate for drones is very high, mostly due to electronic countermeasures. If there was no need to communicate with the drone than jamming would be useless. This is coming.

Does the human race really want to make autonomous attack drones that are fully programmed by an AI?

 

[jatz14]

Does the human race really want to make autonomous attack drones that are fully programmed by an AI?

Why not?

I cant see how this would end badly.

 

[CD Xbow]

At the beginning of the invasion there were few drones on the battlefield, now they are everywhere. The losses rate for drones is very high, mostly due to electronic countermeasures. If there was no need to communicate with the drone than jamming would be useless. This is coming.

Small drones used by Ukraine are already testing a module called Skynode S Autonomy Kit, which allows terminal guidance of the drone in the attack phase without pilot or GPS input. I noted they avoided calling it Skynet.

Skynode S: Auterion autonomy kit lets attack drones fly through jamming - Breaking Defense

Just announced on Thursday but already quietly combat-tested in Ukraine, the palm-sized Skynode S card makes small drones much less dependent on an uninterrupted wireless link to a human remote controller.

breakingdefense.com

'We’re not picking targets autonomously, because that is a whole new set of ethical considerations,” said Lorenz Meier, Auterion’s founder and CEO, in a call with Breaking Defense. You designate the target, [that] is a human decision, but everything from there is fully automated. … The whole terminal guidance is all fully automated and can’t be jammed, doesn’t rely on GPS, and also works on moving targets.”

Autonomous terminal guidance is a complex technical problem that the Russians have already tried — and, so far, seemingly failed — to tackle with their own Lancet drone. It matters so much militarily, for both sides, because the trickiest time for attack drones is often the final approach to their targets.

The fundamental physics problem is that small drones can only carry small amounts of explosives, so even a small mistake can mean a miss. But small drones — at least, ones without Skynode S — can’t perform precise maneuvers on their own: They need a human pilot flying them by remote control. That means an unskilled, exhausted or just unlucky operator can fumble the strike at the last minute. Or the enemy can force a fumble by jamming the control link, which requires less and less power as the drone gets closer and closer to the target.

To dispense with that human guidance, you need a drone with electronic eyes sharp enough, and a digital brain smart enough, to distinguish the designated target from the background clutter and home in on it autonomously. But while computers have gotten pretty good at identifying static images of cute kittens, puppies and consumer products, they have a harder time with three-dimensional objects, especially when they’re camouflaged, partially hidden behind cover, poorly lit, or moving.

Meier is emphatic that Skynode S has solved this problem well enough to give Ukrainian drones an edge in combat, without needing exquisite sensors or bulky on-board computers.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Does the human race really want to make autonomous attack drones that are fully programmed by an AI?

Maybe the best way for this is for the drone to be manually controlled, but if it loses contact with the person controlling it, then it goes into AI mode to counteract jammers.