Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[PeterSalt]

If things stay as they are Putin won't be able to maintain the Ukraine invasion by the end of next year.

putin desperately needs trump and vance in the WH

 

[Zidane98]

putin desperately needs trump and vance in the WH

That won't do it. European nations by themselves are ramping up enough support evrn without Trump.

And if by some miracle does win it's not like he will suddenly be able to turn off all aid.

Ukraine is set for the next 5 years.

Russia though is at risk of losing its sovereignty. Could realistically dissolve. Russia empires tend to go boom after failed wars.

 

[PeterSalt]

That won't do it. European nations by themselves are ramping up enough support evrn without Trump.

And if by some miracle does win it's not like he will suddenly be able to turn off all aid.

Ukraine is set for the next 5 years.

Russia though is at risk of losing its sovereignty. Could realistically dissolve. Russia empires tend to go boom after failed wars.

Hope and pray

 

[barreness]

For a country with no navy, this has been quite the feat.

Though the vatniks amongst us will advise us its all going to plan, that it was a feint or goodwill gesture, or some other bullshit.

Russian navy has always been trash, clearly a side project. They can only put in what turkey allows through the montreux convention and its another choke point in the Baltic sea. That's why the nuclear subs are in the artic and all they really care about

 

[Chief]

Geopolitical strategy for the kinetic century we find ourselves in.

So long as Putin gets to be king, he's fine with the killing.

Why does Australia freak out about Chinese money going to Micronesian states? Same answer

Australia is trying to expand territory to usher in a new Australian Empire and wage war to take over sovereign nations?

You seemed keen on the idea

You brought it up.

 

[Visions]

Due to the new alliance between outcasts Russia and Nth Korea as a result of the Ukraine war, we have the first Nth Korean military casualty and he wasn't even at the front.

North Korean official drowned during Moscow visit, say Russian media

MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - A North Korean official visiting Russia whose name matches that of a man cited by the secretive state's media as the leader of a military training contingent has drowned while swimming in a pond outside Moscow, Russian media have reported.

 

[Zidane98]

Ukraine had one of the oldest populations and lowest fertility rates pre war, this argument doesn't make sense. I guess war does tend to bump up births but I doubt that's part of the plan

Compared to what? I know tankies don't deal in facts but here they are for you anyway:

Life Expectancy - Ukraine 71.76 years Russia 70.06 years
Birth Rate p/1000 - Ukraine 8.6 Russia 9.0
Population aged over 65 - Ukraine 15.6% / Russia 16.2%

I'm not seeing the win here you are trying to claim on demographics. And this is a Ukraine that's being attacked and invaded by a bunch of rampaging fascists with zero regard for human life.

There's 66 million men in Russia, perhaps 30 million could be considered armable. Demographic arguments are rubbish for geopolitics, useful for internal economics. If you do consider it useful then you would know Ukraine is in a considerably worse position

You know perfectly well that men from Moscow, St Petersburg etc are not being drafted to the front line. There is a reason why the Indian & Nepaelse governments had to step in and stop Putin from mobilising their citizens who were lured to Russia under the false pretense of gaining employment. There is also a reason why the newly formed NATO border with Finland and the Chinese is almost deserted of military personnel totally. Troops are needed just to maintain Russia's position and there is not enough ethnic minorities that Putin can send to the front line for ethnic cleansing / cannon fodder any more. Another thing is this policy by Putin which is pretty much racial discrimination will result in discontent in areas of Russia that never wanted to be part of the Russian Federation.

Ukraine doesn't have this issue and are defending on their own turf. In theory Russia should have won this war over a year ago.

I see you've been to the Peter Zeihan school, he's a corporate grifter

There's cognitive dissonance here; Russia is so useless that they can't conquer a slice of Ukraine, If they aren't stopped now they'll be in Berlin later this year. Choose one

Russia is the one that's been invaded for centuries, did you forget about the second world war or Napoleon?

Russia was not invaded in the second world war. The USSR was. If Russia had a modernised military that was half as well organised as western military forces they would easily be able to invade Ukraine and occupy it, let alone Kyiv which was supposed to happen within weeks. There is a 3.5/1 population advantage, a massive land border to defend and a 5-1 troop advantage.

Russian incompetence, shitty Soviet era equipment is the only reason this hasn't happened. Ukraine have been able to hold them off with zero boots on the ground from allied nations.

Think of the US declaring it is taking over Mexico completely and imagine how the US would be viewed if the Mexicans were able to hold off the US for two and a half years with shitty hand me down soviet era military aid provided by Russia and allies like Cuba / Nicaragua etc.


Nobody has invaded the Russian Federation since it came into existence in 1991. Infact it is Russia that has constantly attacked and invaded any neighbors that no longer wanted to be subjugated by Moscow.

You really must live in an alternate reality in the land of Vodka tovarisch.

 

[PeterSalt]

Will a Trump/Vance government possibly start re-arming Russia?

Doubt they'd go that far

Vance has been open about not GAF about Ukraine or NATO

trump has been open about pulling the US out of NATO

trump has been open about trying to force Ukraine into a negotiated peace in which russia would keep the Ukrainian territories they currently occupy

trump has been open about stopping weapon supplies to Ukraine from the US

trump has discussed ending sanctions against russia

russian state media couldn't hide their delight that Vance was chosen as VP

 

[Jamolad]

Will a Trump/Vance government possibly start re-arming Russia?

Trump would be there fighting for the Russians, if it weren't for his bone spurs

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Trump would be there fighting for the Russians, if it weren't for his bone spurs

One thing's for sure, a sit-down with Putin will be one of Trump's first photo opportunities when he gets in.

 

[Mobbs]

One thing's for sure, a sit-down with Putin will be one of Trump's first photo opportunities when he gets in.

There was some article months ago where either Trump or his people were talking about changes to process which would allow for a US president to essentially be able to veto something something about a president being kicked out, which immediately made me wonder if Trump's interest in Putin is based on how to turn US presidency into termless / limitless control of the post.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

There was some article months ago where either Trump or his people were talking about changes to process which would allow for a US president to essentially be able to veto something something about a president being kicked out, which immediately made me wonder if Trump's interest in Putin is based on how to turn US presidency into termless / limitless control of the post.

There's no doubt in my mind that Trump will attempt to circumvent leaving office in 2028, by whatever means he can. It's a no brainer.

 

[CD Xbow]

So, you see countries with common interests as being vassals, just in order of relative strength?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's a very black and white, authoritarian view, denying there is any agency for smaller states in alliances. Common amongst supporters of Russia and other autocratic states I find. I guess they can't conceive of any other way for nation states to do business.

I saw a number of threats by Mr P to arm the Houthi's with antiship missiles, which was pretty ironic given the Houthi's bagged a tanker carrying Russian oil the other day.

Tanker carrying Russian oil to China attacked by Houthi sea drone

The Houthi rebels attacked two tankers departed from Russia.

www.newsweek.com

 

[BobbyMorri]

After Ukraine becomes a vassal state of russia the next logical step would be to introduce a feudal system.
Bring back the good old days of serfdom.

I think you are missing the step where the USSR/Russia murders all educated people and officers in a forest somewhere.

Then, to serfdom.

 

[tricknologist]

I think you are missing the step where the USSR/Russia murders all educated people and officers in a forest somewhere.

Then, to serfdom.

Don't forget culling significant parts of the population with preventable famines. That's an important step.

 

[jatz14]

I hope you are right, but I'm not optimistic. Before when the aid to Ukraine was behind disputed in Congress, Russia was making gains albiat with great losses and minor the gains somewhat minor.

Nato and the US have been making contingencies for a US presidency not sympathetic to Ukraine.

 

[Mobbs]

Nato and the US have been making contingencies for a US presidency not sympathetic to Ukraine.

Commonly invoking the specific term "trump-proofing"!

 

[Aussie in exile]

Doubt they'd go that far

Vance has been open about not GAF about Ukraine or NATO

trump has been open about pulling the US out of NATO

trump has been open about trying to force Ukraine into a negotiated peace in which russia would keep the Ukrainian territories they currently occupy

trump has been open about stopping weapon supplies to Ukraine from the US

trump has discussed ending sanctions against russia

russian state media couldn't hide their delight that Vance was chosen as VP

tRump owes Putin and Putin will call the debt in if tRump gets elected.

 

[barreness]

I heard they were only going to last 3 days.

Your tune has changed.

My tune?

Don't make me quote your rubbish from the early days of this war, Economy collapse/Putin cancer etc etc

The three day thing was pure Russian propaganda and their hopeless supply lines were found out. Quote me please on this?
We're entering the third year, things change eh

 

[barreness]

So long as Putin gets to be king, he's fine with the killing.

Kinda

Australia is trying to expand territory to usher in a new Australian Empire and wage war to take over sovereign nations?

Nah, we have barely the population to secure the island. We're still in the 'big austalia' thing, we only start to arc up when the small islands within aircraft range start going against American hegemony

You brought it up.

"thin the herd"?

We are talking about people here

 

[barreness]

Come off it.

He has no claim over Ukraine but wanted to roll in and take it anyway.

No one really has a claim but yet they do it, geopolitics

Ex russian empire, ex soviet union, both slavs, some shared language. Hey its better than most claims

Ukraine is getting some real firepower.

Still haven't received f-16's, promised shells haven't(can't) be manufactured. Warsaw pact countries are out of the stockpiles(which Ukraine knows how to use) etc etc

Maybe to avoid the killing Russia should become a Ukrainian vassal.

Sure, the slav empire is actually a good side point to the build up to WW1. That's not really how power dynamics work though is it

 

[barreness]

Link?

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine...ot-stage-of-war-by-end-of-2024-zelensky-says/
Ukraine could try to end the hot stage of the war with Russia by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC on July 18.

"I believe that if we are united and follow, for example, the format of the peace summit, we can end the hot stage of the war. We can try to do it by the end of this year," Zelensky said.

Bear in mind this is a big difference from earlier rhetoric about we will not stop until Ukraine's borders are reaffirmed(mid 2023). Now it's not a peace now signal but the change of direction is notable

 

[barreness]

So why is still allowing his soldiers to fight if he's sure it all ends for them this year?

Because he's trying to maintain sovereignty? Kinda his job

 

[barreness]

Compared to what? I know tankies don't deal in facts but here they are for you anyway:

Life Expectancy - Ukraine 71.76 years Russia 70.06 years
Birth Rate p/1000 - Ukraine 8.6 Russia 9.0
Population aged over 65 - Ukraine 15.6% / Russia 16.2%

I'm not seeing the win here you are trying to claim on demographics. And this is a Ukraine that's being attacked and invaded by a bunch of rampaging fascists with zero regard for human life.

You're making my point for me. I agree that the demographic argument is not particularity relevant and if it is it's worst for Ukraine. Your stats are pre invasion yes? Post look pretty messy and it's been a steep downhill since the collapse of the soviet union for the eastern block

You know perfectly well that men from Moscow, St Petersburg etc are not being drafted to the front line. There is a reason why the Indian & Nepaelse governments had to step in and stop Putin from mobilising their citizens who were lured to Russia under the false pretense of gaining employment. There is also a reason why the newly formed NATO border with Finland and the Chinese is almost deserted of military personnel totally. Troops are needed just to maintain Russia's position and there is not enough ethnic minorities that Putin can send to the front line for ethnic cleansing / cannon fodder any more. Another thing is this policy by Putin which is pretty much racial discrimination will result in discontent in areas of Russia that never wanted to be part of the Russian Federation.

Very few are being drafted to the front line. Most are volunteer or prisoners/PMC etc(the joys of a poor county)

Why would NATO invade through Finland? Why would China invade?

Yeh sure I agree, they use ethnic minorities and poor rural men, kinda sounds like the US recruitment policies. Oligarchal capitalists states, what can you say

Ukraine doesn't have this issue and are defending on their own turf. In theory Russia should have won this war over a year ago.

Ukraine has a serious manpower shortage, I'm not sure how you're not aware of that

Russia was not invaded in the second world war. The USSR was.

Righto, you got me there, points for you because I've done this same gotcha before

If Russia had a modernised military that was half as well organised as western military forces they would easily be able to invade Ukraine and occupy it, let alone Kyiv which was supposed to happen within weeks. There is a 3.5/1 population advantage, a massive land border to defend and a 5-1 troop advantage.

Russian incompetence, shitty Soviet era equipment is the only reason this hasn't happened. Ukraine have been able to hold them off with zero boots on the ground from allied nations.

Yeh I agree, and boss shit from the Ukranians

They aren't going to take back territory though

Think of the US declaring it is taking over Mexico completely and imagine how the US would be viewed if the Mexicans were able to hold off the US for two and a half years with shitty hand me down soviet era military aid provided by Russia and allies like Cuba / Nicaragua etc.

If Mexico began importing arms and the FSB started setting up camps on the US border I have no doubt the US would invade and crush whatever regime was in Mexico city(maybe if the coup failed first).

America and their vassals are the world hegemon(for now). Their military power and force projection is unprecedented in history. The rump state of Russia post cold war and USSR collapse can't be compared to them obvs

Nobody has invaded the Russian Federation since it came into existence in 1991. Infact it is Russia that has constantly attacked and invaded any neighbors that no longer wanted to be subjugated by Moscow.

Yep.

NATO and US influence has continually spread eastward up until its at their border. As every western chauvinist will tell you America hasn't annexed a state sine 18-dickety, that's simply not how they do it

You really must live in an alternate reality in the land of Vodka tovarisch.

More a wine man but you know

 

[barreness]

not really true, advancing economies from low status to greater consumption per capita has the biggest impact

Both large factors, if everyone lived at Aus levels we are cooked even quicker. The moral argument is global depopulation equally, ie one child policy for the world