Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[barreness]

The world can easily support 8 billion people. Just not if several million of them have their own personal super yachts and private jets.

Having consumption per person is simpler, easier, faster and more affordable than 50% depopulation.

Don't disagree but this is pretty authoritarian of you. Coming under earth's boundaries would require very strict rationing if every individual was equal

Good to have you on board eco-comrade

We could of course have all countries get their own Putin. The ensuing conflict might be quite depopulating, but also environmentally damaging and costly.

Yep, forever wars are massively damaging, for instance the US military is the largest polluting organisation on the planet. Bombed and cluster munitioned wheat fields aren't doing anyone favours while they crumple under the extreme heat.(The Balkans suffering their worst recorded heatwave atm)

Look civilisation is going to end, individual countries and groups will seek out resources in whatever way they can(violence), Single party states will go first because they can(no voters to convince they're good people), the first mover advantage will be sizeable as it always is, this is end game shit

 

[barreness]

why dont you think we can tech our way out of greenhouse gas emissions?

Oh man, seeds I've been through this with you before, you can't tech your way out of a problem you've teched yourself into

35 billion tonnes emitted per year give or take atm, the most efficient current technology can take out 4000 tonnes per year and there is one plant functioning(on geothermal, good on them). Just need 9 million of those plants now, all running off clean energy(don't ask how we build that), and that gets us to break even. Break even is still climate catastrophe and mass extinction.

The numbers don't work

We already have the tech to replace all fossil fuels in energy consumption. Its already here. We just need to adopt it. And it will be done even if we have zero care about the environment because it will be cheaper to do so.

And yet every year emissions go up, why is that?

Livestock emissions is more difficult. But with looming developments of cell based meat (or fake meat) just around the corner then we will highly likely be able to reduce our needs for livestock. Plus a credible reforestation program can offset the remaining emissions from livestock and industrial processes in any case.

Yes, yes more tech will surely save us, never mind it's been around for years and no one has made it economical.

I'll give you reforestation, a good idea, the half earth thing is cool. Tree's and plants don't really change the carbon cycle; tree grow, fall down, and rot = same amount of carbon in the air. What changes the amount of carbon(and hence the cycle) is extracting millions of years of stored solar energy in the form of fossil fuels

Depopulation would actually make climate change worse because the only way to stop temperatures rising is to get net greenhouse gas emissions to zero. Reducing them 50 percent through a thanos type population cull does not stop temperatures rising. But it would stop the pursuit of clean technology due to the political upheaval such an event would result in. The only solution to stopping temperature rises is through clean tech adoption or a 100 percent wipe out of humans. Im assuming you would prefer we adopt the tech approach and not complete human extinction?

It doesn't matter what I prefer, we will keep extracting what we can until it's all over. Hey there might be a few pockets of hardy tribes scrapping away at algae and the meal worm farm.

What we need is a change of culture and economics, ie the super structure and infrastructure. You yourself would never do this because capitalism is cool and rationing scares you to your knees.


We are on a rock travelling through space at an unfathomable speed, the life support system is wavering and every model says it's on the way out, resources are limited and yet we keep building infrastructure that requires ever more resources in upkeep, everyone refuses to ration in the slightest. What's the end game?

 

[barreness]

Cool article.

Can you now actually provide a link where Zelensky says Ukraine wont last until the end of the year as per your claim, and what was asked of you in the first place?

I said he signalled he won't last out the year, if you had a slightly more nuanced sense of politics I'm sure you would see something here. Of course he can't say "oh we're ****ed, give up hope all ye who enter", the diplomatic rhetoric has changed

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/20/politics/zelensky-g7-summit-biden-leaders/index.html
“As long as invaders remain on our land, no one will sit down at the negotiating table with Russia,” Zelensky wrote on Twitter, adding that “the world has enough power to force Russia to restore peace step by step.”

This was pre counter offensive, that failed and they haven't tried a thing since. If you can't see where this is going I can't help you

 

[Zidane98]

Because he's trying to maintain sovereignty? Kinda his job

You're making my point for me. I agree that the demographic argument is not particularity relevant and if it is it's worst for Ukraine. Your stats are pre invasion yes? Post look pretty messy and it's been a steep downhill since the collapse of the soviet union for the eastern block

Russian casualties are up around the 600000 mark now. This war is a disaster for Russian society. You ignore the fact that over a million of Russia's most intelligent males fled the country to avoid mobilisation This. combined with the amount of young man your hero Adolf Putin is sending to the front line as cannon fodder is a disaster for Russia.

Why would NATO invade through Finland?

You're making my point, thankyou very much. NATO has no interest in invading Russia, never has and never will. I know you are reading from a script but I promise you in the real world this is reality. Thankyou for confriming that Putin's nonsense about a NATO invasion is just that - nonsense.

Why would China invade?

China wants Vladivostok back whether as Russia being a client state or taking it over for itself. Also, as a result of Russia exhausting itself in Ukraine and going nowhere China is taking over as the dominant power in Central Asai. This is Xi's endgame, he is happy for Putin to wreck Russia for the benefit of China who will become the pre eminent power in Central Asia once this is done. The end result for Russia is likely to be a client state beholden to China.

Yeh sure I agree, they use ethnic minorities and poor rural men, kinda sounds like the US recruitment policies. Oligarchal capitalists states, what can you say

Nothing like the US at all, actually. Both Nepalese & Indian governments have had to demand that Russia does not conscript nationals to their war efforts. Indian men are being promised jobs in Russia and sent to the front line as cannon fodder. The US does not do this, the US recruits from all over the US and the makeup of the US military roughly represents the demographics of US society.

Ukraine has a serious manpower shortage, I'm not sure how you're not aware of that

Russia needs to mobilise foreign mercenaries in its armed forces. Much of the population is off limits to mobilisation due to Putin's racist recruiting policy. This won't change, Putin will never mobilise from St Petersburg, Moscow etc. You're safe at the internet research agency.

They aren't going to take back territory though

This was never how the war is going to end. The war ends when the cost becomes too great for Russia to maintain it. Right now Putin is pillaging Russia's national wealth fund on this invasion. That is on track to run out towards the end of next year. He is wasting gold reserves on military hardware. Putin is wasting your future on a war based on his fascist ideolog - it is amazing you support this.

If Mexico began importing arms and the FSB started setting up camps on the US border I have no doubt the US would invade and crush whatever regime was in Mexico city(maybe if the coup failed first).

This very same scenario exists in Nicaragua and Cuba. And yet the US manages to invade those countries, not send cruise missile bombardments and not send troops to rape, murder, kidnap, torture and deport their citizens.

Furthermore what do you mean by camps on the Russia border? Your hero Adolf Putin has set up filtration camps for forcibly deported Ukrainians but that's got nothing to do with the US. That's because Putin views anyone who dares be Ukranian in Ukraine as an enemy of Russia and subject to torture / kidnapping / rape / imprisonment and / or deportation. This is what you are supporting.

NATO and US influence has continually spread eastward up until its at their border. As every western chauvinist will tell you America hasn't annexed a state sine 18-dickety, that's simply not how they do it

NATO doesn't spread anywhere. It is a free and open defensive alliance. Just as the people of Poland, Romania & the Baltics if they prefer life under the iron curtain or how their lives have improved since EU / NATO integration.

Let's cut the bullshit - this is what Putin really fears from Ukraine being part of the EU / in NATO. A free democratic state next door that he can't threaten / intimidate.

More a wine man but you know

How are you finding buying wine with all the sanctions? 200% increase on tariffs from NATO nations

Russia to raise import taxes on Scotch whisky

Russia is raising import taxes on Scotch whisky as well as other spirits from countries that it deems 'unfriendly', according to reports.

www.thedrinksbusiness.com

Russia isn't known for its wine growing regions, must be tough on being a wine enthusiast behind the iron curtain.

 

[Visions]

Laying down with dogs. Slovakia adds its voice to Hungary in decrying Ukraine's block of the Druzhba Pipeline. [DeepState TG]

The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, considers the sanctions against the Russian "Lukoil" "senseless". In a telephone conversation with the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, Fitso criticized Ukraine's decision to stop the transit of Russian oil.

"Slovakia does not intend to be a hostage of Ukrainian-Russian relations, and the decision of the Ukrainian president means that the Slovak oil refinery Slovnaft, which is part of the Hungarian MOL group, will receive 40% less oil than it needs for processing. This will affect not only the Slovakian market, but may also lead to the cessation of oil supplies to Ukraine produced by Slovnaft, which accounts for almost a tenth of all Ukrainian consumption," said the Slovak Prime Minister.

The Ministry of Economy of Slovakia said that "Slovnaft" has already secured the supply of Russian oil from another supplier, and also ordered oil from alternative sources.

Amazing. Hungary and Slovakia have had 2 years to wean themselves off Russian oil like the rest of the EU and find alternate suppliers. Just because their politicians are inept Vatniks isn’t an excuse.

The fact that Ukraine is still shipping Russian oil through their territory is bewildering. If the situation was reversed, Russia would have cut the supply off the first day. So l say **** you Orban and Fico.

 

[Mobbs]

Amazing. Hungary and Slovakia have had 2 years to wean themselves off Russian oil like the rest of the EU and find alternate suppliers. Just because their politicians are inept Vatniks isn’t an excuse.

The fact that Ukraine is still shipping Russian oil through their territory is bewildering. If the situation was reversed, Russia would have cut the supply off the first day. So l say **** you Orban and Fico.

Yep strangely enough Czechia and I think Romania is the other one seem to have taken it in their stride. Almost as if they had explored diversity of are not held hostage to Lukoil. Wonder why!

 

[barreness]

Russian casualties are up around the 600000 mark now. This war is a disaster for Russian society. You ignore the fact that over a million of Russia's most intelligent males fled the country to avoid mobilisation This. combined with the amount of young man your hero Adolf Putin is sending to the front line as cannon fodder is a disaster for Russia.

I'd say the difference is Russians are allowed to leave their country. This war is a disaster, as all are

They did a partial mobilisation in 2022, nothing since. Ukraine has lost maybe a quarter of their population through annexation, refugees, and those fleeing conscription

You're making my point, thankyou very much. NATO has no interest in invading Russia, never has and never will. I know you are reading from a script but I promise you in the real world this is reality. Thankyou for confriming that Putin's nonsense about a NATO invasion is just that - nonsense.

Finish the sentence Zidane........'invade through Finland'. Do you disagree that NATO was set up as an anti USSR alliance?

US dominance of Europe has long been their goal, this is not groundbreaking

So anti free trade?

China wants Vladivostok back whether as Russia being a client state or taking it over for itself. Also, as a result of Russia exhausting itself in Ukraine and going nowhere China is taking over as the dominant power in Central Asai. This is Xi's endgame, he is happy for Putin to wreck Russia for the benefit of China who will become the pre eminent power in Central Asia once this is done. The end result for Russia is likely to be a client state beholden to China.

Yeh I'd say its inevitable that most of asia comes under China's dominance, they're not annexing Vladivostok anytime soon though

Nothing like the US at all, actually. Both Nepalese & Indian governments have had to demand that Russia does not conscript nationals to their war efforts. Indian men are being promised jobs in Russia and sent to the front line as cannon fodder. The US does not do this, the US recruits from all over the US and the makeup of the US military roughly represents the demographics of US society.

The US sends recruitment officers to poorer schools and pressures them to join up as their only escape. Yeh using Gurkha mercenaries is so foreign to the west I guess

Russia needs to mobilise foreign mercenaries in its armed forces. Much of the population is off limits to mobilisation due to Putin's racist recruiting policy. This won't change, Putin will never mobilise from St Petersburg, Moscow etc. You're safe at the internet research agency.

Yeh cool man, CIA paying you much? I might switch sides

This was never how the war is going to end. The war ends when the cost becomes too great for Russia to maintain it. Right now Putin is pillaging Russia's national wealth fund on this invasion. That is on track to run out towards the end of next year. He is wasting gold reserves on military hardware. Putin is wasting your future on a war based on his fascist ideolog - it is amazing you support this.

Such a military genius here, it's an honour to be in such company.

Meanwhile troops from a failed campaign after suffering enormous casualties
speaking to soldiers taking part in the cross-river raids. Many service members said the fighting felt "hopeless." Others felt that it was a form of political theater to distract Western allies from the largely failed counteroffensive.
https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

This very same scenario exists in Nicaragua and Cuba. And yet the US manages to invade those countries, not send cruise missile bombardments and not send troops to rape, murder, kidnap, torture and deport their citizens.

A fruedian slip? Given your next line yes I'd guess

Nicaraguan contras or the bay of pigs ring any bells?

Furthermore what do you mean by camps on the Russia border? Your hero Adolf Putin has set up filtration camps for forcibly deported Ukrainians but that's got nothing to do with the US. That's because Putin views anyone who dares be Ukranian in Ukraine as an enemy of Russia and subject to torture / kidnapping / rape / imprisonment and / or deportation. This is what you are supporting.

CIA camps comrade;

C.I.A.-supported network of spy bases constructed in the past eight years that includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border.

The day after Euromaiden;

He went to an office and called the C.I.A. station chief and the local head of MI6. It was near midnight but he summoned them to the building, asked for help in rebuilding the agency from the ground up, and proposed a three-way partnership. “That’s how it all started,” Mr. Nalyvaichenko said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html

Wonder how he got those numbers?

NATO doesn't spread anywhere. It is a free and open defensive alliance. Just as the people of Poland, Romania & the Baltics if they prefer life under the iron curtain or how their lives have improved since EU / NATO integration.

Well it does spread, but yeh sure it's voluntary. It is quite clearly an anti Russian "defensive" organisation other wise they would have disbanded in the 90's. It's never actually done any defensive operation but you'll say that's a testament to it's usefulness(has run a few offensive operations).

Let's cut the bullshit - this is what Putin really fears from Ukraine being part of the EU / in NATO. A free democratic state next door that he can't threaten / intimidate.

To an extent yeh, History would suggest a unified Europe pushing east is a threat to Russian sovereignty.

The US ambassador to Russia and dep secretary of state (2011-2014) certainly agreed - "if you talk about Russia’s sphere of influence, Ukraine was the reddest of red lines from Putin’s point of view."
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/william-burns/

How are you finding buying wine with all the sanctions? 200% increase on tariffs from NATO nations

Russia to raise import taxes on Scotch whisky

Russia is raising import taxes on Scotch whisky as well as other spirits from countries that it deems 'unfriendly', according to reports.

www.thedrinksbusiness.com

Russia isn't known for its wine growing regions, must be tough on being a wine enthusiast behind the iron curtain.

Phwaorrrrrr, usually comedians have a few more jokes up their sleeve. But yeh wine prices is Aus have been suprisingly resilient to the inflation rampant among household consumables

 

[Aussie in exile]

The tapes no-one has seen and probably don't exist.
One thing I know,living in a cave is better than living under a rock.

But they do exist, and that why draft dodging Donny won't condemn Russia's illeagle of Ukraine.
Surely you don't believe that Stormy Daniels is the only lady of the night that Diaper Donnyhas been unfaithful do you?

 

[CD Xbow]

Hence the down playing of all the genocidal behaviour.

Its very similar to Trump supporters who to be able to keep supporting him, dismiss all the shit hes done that would be a deal breaker for anyone else.

Love is blind, as they say.

 

[Zidane98]

I'd say the difference is Russians are allowed to leave their country

Hmmmm. Anyone who is eligible for conscription cannot leave Russia

Russia plans crackdown on men avoiding the draft

A new online system means anyone who receives a military summons will be banned from leaving the country

www.opendemocracy.net

Unless of course you are a deluded vatnik who resides in Moscow and aren't part of an ethnic minority.

Finish the sentence Zidane........'invade through Finland'. Do you disagree that NATO was set up as an anti USSR alliance?

The USSR doesn't exist anymore even if you and Putin believes it does. NATO was formed so there would be no more wars in Europe. Which there has not been a single one in a NATO member nation. Peace is a good thing unless you are a power hungry dictator like Putin who needs a war to maintain hegemony over his nation. There is 0% chance that Russia is going to be invaded by NATO. This is why Putin takes troops and military equipment from his actual NATO borders (Kalingrad, Baltics, Finland) and redeploys them to Ukraine. Because he is fully aware that NATO is no threat.

US dominance of Europe has long been their goal, this is not groundbreaking

So anti free trade?

It is in the interests of the US and most of the world that there were no more further wars in the 20th century in Europe. That's a good thing and definitely not anti-trade.

Yeh I'd say its inevitable that most of asia comes under China's dominance, they're not annexing Vladivostok anytime soon though

They won't need to annex Vladivostok when Russia ends up as a client state after this war finishes isolated from the rest of the world apart from Nth Korea, China, Belarus, Syria, Nicaragua, Iran and Eritrea. Some fine esteemed company for a once powerful Russia to count as their closest allies.

The US sends recruitment officers to poorer schools and pressures them to join up as their only escape. Yeh using Gurkha mercenaries is so foreign to the west I guess

US military recruits from all facets of society. There are plenty recruits from upper class families in the US - unlike in Russia. Also unlike Russia PMCS like Wagner and mercenaries are not used. Anyway, this is about the Ukraine invasion. Quite telling you can't resist but bring all of your arguments back to the US. Is that on every line of your script?

Yeh cool man, CIA paying you much? I might switch sides

Not as much as your pay at the internet research agency/

Such a military genius here, it's an honour to be in such company.

Meanwhile troops from a failed campaign after suffering enormous casualties
speaking to soldiers taking part in the cross-river raids. Many service members said the fighting felt "hopeless." Others felt that it was a form of political theater to distract Western allies from the largely failed counteroffensive.
https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

And? You make out like you are proud of this achievement by your country.

A fruedian slip? Given your next line yes I'd guess

Congrats, you got me on that one.

Nicaraguan contras or the bay of pigs ring any bells?

It's 2024, not 1964. Despite those two nations being aligned with Russia the US is not invading them, not spending hundreds of millions of dollars on cruise missile bombardments and isn't sending in troops to rape, kidnap, murder, torture and deport their citizens. I know you must find it difficult to understand why the US wouldn't be doing this to openly hostile neighbors as it is standard practice for Putin's troops.

CIA camps comrade;

C.I.A.-supported network of spy bases constructed in the past eight years that includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border.

The day after Euromaiden;

He went to an office and called the C.I.A. station chief and the local head of MI6. It was near midnight but he summoned them to the building, asked for help in rebuilding the agency from the ground up, and proposed a three-way partnership. “That’s how it all started,” Mr. Nalyvaichenko said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html

Wonder how he got those numbers?

crackpot conspiracies may be believed by vatniks but the average sane person does not believe them.

Well it does spread, but yeh sure it's voluntary. It is quite clearly an anti Russian "defensive" organisation other wise they would have disbanded in the 90's. It's never actually done any defensive operation but you'll say that's a testament to it's usefulness(has run a few offensive operations).

Nothing anti-Russian about it at all. The only concern is peace in Europe, mutual defense. After the two world wars in the first half of the 20th century this is a good thing. Unless you are a murderous dictator who wants to recreate USSR 2.0 lite of course.

To an extent yeh, History would suggest a unified Europe pushing east is a threat to Russian sovereignty.

It is zero threat to Russian sovereignty, this is an absolute lie. It does prevent a hostile nation in Europe invading others for the purpose of expanding their empire. It's a shame there wasn't such an organisation to prevent the rise of Hitler. Luckily NATO a counter balance against the next closest modern equivalent to Hitler, Adolf Putin. This is no threat to the sovereignty of Russia though. You know this.

The US ambassador to Russia and dep secretary of state (2011-2014) certainly agreed - "if you talk about Russia’s sphere of influence, Ukraine was the reddest of red lines from Putin’s point of view."
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/william-burns/

Just like Poland & the Baltics were. They escaped Russia's sphere of influence and have thrived since. Russia has Belarus, that isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Russia should probably focus on preventing China from taking over as the dominant power in Central Asia which it is because of Putin's failed invasion of Ukraine. They've also lost Armenia to the CSTO because they failed to meet mutual defense obligations.

If the US was doing exactly what Russia was doing in Central Asia Putin would absolutely attack the place. Huge geopolitical error on his part to lose out in central asia to China.

 

[DangerousD]

How do people see this conflict playing out, over the rest of the year? Has Putin curbed his ambitions, or will he continue to push on claiming territory regardless of human loss? It seems crazy for him to continue to push for territory as every $$$ spent and life lost, pushes him closer to a demise but who knows.

Im tipping Trump to win come November and it appears he will stop or limit US funding, but i dont see him abandoning Ukraine completely, i assume he will only cease funding if Russia stop advancing or limit advances to the edge of the Donbas region.

 

[Cap]

Honestly the US wants the EU to sell shit too.

If it wanted to dominate it, it could have quite easily from the end of WWII up until now.

How do people see this conflict playing out, over the rest of the year? Has Putin curbed his ambitions, or will he continue to push on claiming territory regardless of human loss? It seems crazy for him to continue to push for territory as every $$$ spent and life lost, pushes him closer to a demise but who knows.

Im tipping Trump to win come November and it appears he will stop or limit US funding, but i dont see him abandoning Ukraine completely, i assume he will only cease funding if Russia stop advancing or limit advances to the edge of the Donbas region.

He will absolutely abandon Ukraine.

He will do whatever Putin asks his to do so he can make money in Russia once he has lifted the sanctions.

 

[DangerousD]

Honestly the US wants the EU to sell shit too.

If it wanted to dominate it, it could have quite easily from the end of WWII up until now.


He will absolutely abandon Ukraine.

He will do whatever Putin asks his to do so he can make money in Russia once he has lifted the sanctions.

I dont think he’s going to allow Putin to push on and take the whole country, he will do a deal, one that Russia will love no less, but he still has to maintain his image among world leaders, he will lose a lot of credibility And trust with other leaders if he allows Russia to roll through Ukraine.

He still needs to sell whatever happens to the rest of the world.

I just assume the deal would involve the Russians keeping what they have currently, what do you think he will do?

 

[Mobbs]

How do people see this conflict playing out, over the rest of the year? Has Putin curbed his ambitions, or will he continue to push on claiming territory regardless of human loss? It seems crazy for him to continue to push for territory as every $$$ spent and life lost, pushes him closer to a demise but who knows.

Im tipping Trump to win come November and it appears he will stop or limit US funding, but i dont see him abandoning Ukraine completely, i assume he will only cease funding if Russia stop advancing or limit advances to the edge of the Donbas region.

Pretty similar take to yours, actually. But I'll type out everything I can think of:
I can't see Trump not winning (tho of course its not a given and will lie chiefly in the Democrats finding enough charisma points).
I can see US aid to Ukraine being limited with primary view to looking like its limited as that's what will appease Trump's fanbase.
I can see "ending the war in a day" or whatever Trump said becoming a "non-core" promise.
I can see Ukraine rejecting his peace proposals but in a way that does not look hardline as though its an outright rejection, rather an evolving approach.
I can see Europe indeed building a Trumproofed support network for Ukraine's resistance. I can see it being generally effective but absolutely for sure less robust.
I can see Trump inserting rhetoric about quitting NATO and perhaps even following through on it. Europe will have no alternative but to insert replacement processes.
I can see RF continuing to pursue its infection of both Georgia and Moldova no matter how the Ukraine war proceeds.
I can see Germany and France continuing to uppy downy its support levels for Ukraine.
I can see the Baltics consider forming an enclave within NATO for purposes of defense which might or might not strain NATO structural integrity itself.
I cannot see nuclear escalation though I also cannot rule it out. To date, RF have never considered using nukes, they have instead continued to bleat "we can if we want, what do you think about that?" and the world has responded differently to a person.
I can see the potential for RF continuing its war in Ukraine until they can't. This can be changed only by change or regime (even if its only Putin not necessarily the party or the silovici), popular uprising or inability due economically. With the USA surrendering, Germany and France borderline surrendering, RF still thinks its a chance due to extensive people power resources and ability to add resources from without the country.
I can see uprisings within RF to grow but I can't see where they can succeed.
I can see Ukraine continuing its resistance even under pressure from without to surrender. Even if they surrendered, they would continue to resist, however that already happens in Belarus and it's largely ineffective.
I do not see NATO acting physically in the territories of either Ukraine or Russia even if RF attacked a NATO nation eg a Baltic, however they definitely would explosively respond on that newly invaded territory.

As for the "winner", I don't know. Russia has reached its first critical roadblock to empirical expansion. The world didn't sit up sharply enough re Belarus, Georgia, Chechnya, Transnistria etc. This time, the world pointed fingers and the cost has been exponentially higher. The war could continue a long time purely off the fumes of the fear of humiliation. An RF withdrawal and close of the theatre WILL appear humiliating, even if it would in truth be an inspiring act of humanity.

I expect that if RF concludes its invasion and exits Ukraine, regime change in Russia will inevitably occur but almost calmly and naturally after some time.

I expect that if RF does retain its currently occupied territory (or slightly more, or negotiated slightly less), RF will pursue Transnistria/Moldova, and/or strengthen its constriction of Georgia, and then return to Ukraine.

I expect that if the RF/Ukraine war continues as is, it will continue to take the form of slight gains by RF punctuated by episodes of losing some of that ground back episodically, but overall the same thing happening now, will continue to happen. Both sides can feed their war machines for a long time yet so long as their internal and support environments do not act prohibitively.

(I have no education nor experience in these matters)

 

[Chief]

Slurp up the propaganda like a good boy

Demographics is an overrated metric used by capitalists because their profits are in danger, depopulation is the best thing for the species and every other living thing

"thin the herd"?

We are talking about people here

You. Brought. It. Up.

 

[Cap]

I dont think he’s going to allow Putin to push on and take the whole country, he will do a deal, one that Russia will love no less, but he still has to maintain his image among world leaders, he will lose a lot of credibility And trust with other leaders if he allows Russia to roll through Ukraine.

He still needs to sell whatever happens to the rest of the world.

I just assume the deal would involve the Russians keeping what they have currently, what do you think he will do?

he is already a joke to other international leaders, so he won't care what they think.

He will put forward a pro-russian deal which will include dropping sanctions on Russia and them keeping the land they've stolen.

It will be rejected, he'll wash his hands of it and stop all aid.

His focus will be on domestic issues any way, his core group if voters don't care. They are by enlarge pro-putin anyway.

 

[Zidane98]

How do people see this conflict playing out, over the rest of the year? Has Putin curbed his ambitions, or will he continue to push on claiming territory regardless of human loss? It seems crazy for him to continue to push for territory as every $$$ spent and life lost, pushes him closer to a demise but who knows.

Im tipping Trump to win come November and it appears he will stop or limit US funding, but i dont see him abandoning Ukraine completely, i assume he will only cease funding if Russia stop advancing or limit advances to the edge of the Donbas region.

How long does the existing 61b worth of military aid last?

 

[Zidane98]

I dont think he’s going to allow Putin to push on and take the whole country, he will do a deal, one that Russia will love no less, but he still has to maintain his image among world leaders, he will lose a lot of credibility And trust with other leaders if he allows Russia to roll through Ukraine.

He still needs to sell whatever happens to the rest of the world.

I just assume the deal would involve the Russians keeping what they have currently, what do you think he will do?

As much as he would like to Trump simply won't be able to cut off Ukraine if he somehow is elected president. He's still the leader of the US and accountable to congress. The existing package will continue obviously. I suspect any new packages will probably be reduced and/or stiuplations will be attached to them. But support will continue. Ukraine are also preparing for a hostile US president. Plenty of support from Europe by itself which is enough to hold off the Russians. Hence Putin's attempts at destabilisation in Europe albeit unsuccessful.

 

[Cap]

As much as he would like to Trump simply won't be able to cut off Ukraine if he somehow is elected president. He's still the leader of the US and accountable to congress. The existing package will continue obviously. I suspect any new packages will probably be reduced and/or stiuplations will be attached to them. But support will continue. Ukraine are also preparing for a hostile US president. Plenty of support from Europe by itself which is enough to hold off the Russians. Hence Putin's attempts at destabilisation in Europe albeit unsuccessful.

to clarify, when I say cut them off, I mean no new funding.

this assumes GOP don't win both houses and change it somehow

 

[Zidane98]

to clarify, when I say cut them off, I mean no new funding.

this assumes GOP don't win both houses and change it somehow

GOP can't change an existing bill can they? I'm not exactly sure how US government works but I would presume existing bills are done and dusted.

 

[Cap]

GOP can't change an existing bill can they? I'm not exactly sure how US government works but I would presume existing bills are done and dusted.

Honestly don't know.

I wouldn't put it past them to be honest

 

[Zidane98]

Honestly don't know.

I wouldn't put it past them to be honest

Not 100% certain but my understanding is it can't be undone.

 

[DangerousD]

GOP can't change an existing bill can they? I'm not exactly sure how US government works but I would presume existing bills are done and dusted.

It seems every few months there’s more aid and $$$ promised for weapons, whatever has been agreed doesnt seem to last long.

 

[jatz14]

GOP can't change an existing bill can they? I'm not exactly sure how US government works but I would presume existing bills are done and dusted.

Dude, the GOP congress has done jack shit in the last 3 years.

Being outraged and screaming in people's faces is now all they can do.

Trump never repealed Obama care, despite it being a key promise, because it would require he had written a new health policy to replace it with.

I see the next Trump admin as being waaay worse, as the have recognised they had too many adults in the last admin, and tend on making sure they only have the screaming outraged fanatical pro Trump dysfunctional acolytes next time around.

I think a group photo shoot will be too much for them to organise.

See Vance has already declared he is worried the UK will become the first Muslim nuclear armed state. You can't even parody that.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Ballarat Bob]

Trump is so erratic he could try and give Ukraine to Russia and pull all support for Kiev or if someone influential gets in his ear he could give Ukraine everything they need and lean hard on Putin to withdraw.
Would prefer the democrats got in and continued the support for Ukraine as the longer Ukraine can resist Russia will be less able to sustain the war under sanctions.
Regardless which way Trump goes the GOP will do his bidding they are just his puppets.