Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[barreness]

Hmmmm. Anyone who is eligible for conscription cannot leave Russia

Russia plans crackdown on men avoiding the draft

A new online system means anyone who receives a military summons will be banned from leaving the country

www.opendemocracy.net

Unless of course you are a deluded vatnik who resides in Moscow and aren't part of an ethnic minority.

Plans from 2023, any evidence of conscripts being dragged off the streets?

Once again you'll note Russian conscripts are not legally allowed into Ukraine, It's volunteers/prisoners/PMC/mercenaries

The USSR doesn't exist anymore even if you and Putin believes it does. NATO was formed so there would be no more wars in Europe. Which there has not been a single one in a NATO member nation. Peace is a good thing unless you are a power hungry dictator like Putin who needs a war to maintain hegemony over his nation. There is 0% chance that Russia is going to be invaded by NATO. This is why Putin takes troops and military equipment from his actual NATO borders (Kalingrad, Baltics, Finland) and redeploys them to Ukraine. Because he is fully aware that NATO is no threat.

Nice, now finish the statement, NATO will not invade through Finland? yes or no

NATO is no threat? They're a massive threat to Russia's oligarchal mafia state, the only threat I'd say. Ukraine is begging for NATO to go full involvement and many are supporting the destruction of the Russian regime

Kalingrad is a sacrificial region, much like west Berlin back in the day

It is in the interests of the US and most of the world that there were no more further wars in the 20th century in Europe. That's a good thing and definitely not anti-trade.

Anti free trade was in regards to your twitter post about the removal of customs thangs at Vladivostok, you posited it as a Chinese take over of the port.

If they didn't want a war in Europe they shouldn't have tried to switch Ukraine to NATO

They won't need to annex Vladivostok when Russia ends up as a client state after this war finishes isolated from the rest of the world apart from Nth Korea, China, Belarus, Syria, Nicaragua, Iran and Eritrea. Some fine esteemed company for a once powerful Russia to count as their closest allies.

Throw in India and that's half the worlds population. You have to accept western hegomony is over

US military recruits from all facets of society. There are plenty recruits from upper class families in the US - unlike in Russia. Also unlike Russia PMCS like Wagner and mercenaries are not used. Anyway, this is about the Ukraine invasion. Quite telling you can't resist but bring all of your arguments back to the US. Is that on every line of your script?

The U.S. military utilizes a number of different recruitment methods to garner new enlistments, but their target audience has consistently remained the same: high schoolers, particularly young men from low-income and rural areas
https://prismreports.org/2022/04/18/marginalized-students-military-recruitment/

There is an aristocracy thing in both countries where they put their kids into service for political cred later, they are obviously kept from the front lines. Exception being Stalin who threw his son to the wolves.

Ok not technically mercenaries but arming thousands of 'International brigade' psychos was a little suspect

Not as much as your pay at the internet research agency/

Damn, you're cheap Zids, more than two vodkas a week

And? You make out like you are proud of this achievement by your country.

They're throwing troops at suicidal objectives for "political theatre to distract Western allies", is my point

Congrats, you got me on that one.

It's 2024, not 1964. Despite those two nations being aligned with Russia the US is not invading them, not spending hundreds of millions of dollars on cruise missile bombardments and isn't sending in troops to rape, kidnap, murder, torture and deport their citizens. I know you must find it difficult to understand why the US wouldn't be doing this to openly hostile neighbors as it is standard practice for Putin's troops.

They maintain an embargo on Cuba that means no ship can dock in a US port 6 months after trading with Cuba, this functionally stops cuban trade. They don't have to bomb them when they can starve them

As for the Nicaraguans, it's fine now that they killed the left wing govt
the U.S proceeded to wage an undeclared war against the left-wing Sandinista movement by funding the Contra groups until it was defeated in the election in 1990.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua–United_States_relations

Undeclared war? oh that rings a bell, kinda sounds like a special military occupation. The US hasn't declared war since the Japanese bombed pearl harbour, such a peace loving country

crackpot conspiracies may be believed by vatniks but the average sane person does not believe them.

Conspiracy? That the US state department and CIA were supportive of euromaiden? Didn't think this was controversial

Nothing anti-Russian about it at all. The only concern is peace in Europe, mutual defense. After the two world wars in the first half of the 20th century this is a good thing. Unless you are a murderous dictator who wants to recreate USSR 2.0 lite of course.

My sweet summer(capitalist) child, Why was NATO formed?

It is zero threat to Russian sovereignty, this is an absolute lie. It does prevent a hostile nation in Europe invading others for the purpose of expanding their empire. It's a shame there wasn't such an organisation to prevent the rise of Hitler. Luckily NATO a counter balance against the next closest modern equivalent to Hitler, Adolf Putin. This is no threat to the sovereignty of Russia though. You know this.

The soviet Union broke and yet still NATO remains and expanded, if it wasn't a threat to Russia surely the EU was enough?

Ismay is also credited as having been the first person to say that the purpose of NATO was "to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down,"[2] a saying that has since become a common way to describe the dynamics of NATO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hastings_Ismay,_1st_Baron_Ismay#Secretary_General_of_NATO

Just like Poland & the Baltics were. They escaped Russia's sphere of influence and have thrived since. Russia has Belarus, that isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Poland, yeh i'll give you that, was a useless socialist govt. If we bring back the conversation to Ukraine, they have been wrecked by the end of the USSR, once a thriving industrial and agricultural state, now an economic backwater indebted to the IMF for more than they can possibly tax(pre invasion), obviously it's worse now

Russia should probably focus on preventing China from taking over as the dominant power in Central Asia which it is because of Putin's failed invasion of Ukraine. They've also lost Armenia to the CSTO because they failed to meet mutual defense obligations.

China is probably under your bed mate, I wouldn't check though

Yeh Armenia is kinda cooked here, no allies and an aggressive Azeri. Georgia, after watching Ukraine, have done the smart thing, maintain vassal state

If the US was doing exactly what Russia was doing in Central Asia Putin would absolutely attack the place. Huge geopolitical error on his part to lose out in central asia to China.

China isn't a threat to Russia, how does this make sense? China wants the south china sea and taiwan, they also want trade from resource rich central asia(belt and road) and Russia.

Investments in rail and ports doesn't make it China's joint

 

[barreness]

You. Brought. It. Up.

Nah, read the post I was responding to. They brought up demographics being the reason Russia will lose soon.

The demographic argument essentials says that because you have lower birth rates/bad pyramids you won't be able to provide for the aging population, avoid economic disintegration, and/or fight wars.

This imo is a rubbish argument and the depopulation of the world is very much a good thing overall and the economic fall out will have to be dealt with.

Sorry, I thought the person I was responding to understood the demographic argument so I took a few leaps to the end game, I realise that it looks like I'm arguing for genocide or something without context

 

[barreness]

A Ukrainian Hospital, One of Russia’s Favourite Targets. This Map Shows It

In response to the July 8th attack on the "Ohmatdyt" Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, we take a closer look at other times Russia has violated international law.

united24media.com

I don't think I'm ever going to understand your accept and support of Russia all because other states have done bad things.

But anyway, weve all heard lots from Ukrainian soliders. This would be over if Russia hadn't needlessly and unprovoked, attacked another sovereign state.


All deaths in this war are the responsibility of Putin.

Did you read the article?

You have to ignore all of the last 70 years if you don't think 'might is right' shit hasn't been the gig

needlessly and unprovoked, attacked another sovereign state.
Yeh sure, I agree. doesn't change a thing unfortunately

 

[Cap]

depopulation of the world is very much a good thing

There is zero reason to depopulate the world, if we allocated resources more fairly and stoped relying on things fossil fuels the world would be fine

I've only really ever seen the depopulate argument from white people wanting less brown people.

I don't asume thats you, I assume you've naively been sucked into the narrative without understanding its origins.

 

[Cap]

Did you read the article?

Yes, the point was to show that aren't just front line hospitals.

You have to ignore all of the last 70 years if you don't think 'might is right' shit hasn't been the gig

The last 70 years ? The main culprit of hospital attacks over the last 70 years has been Russia, Syria and the Taliban. (I mean Vietnam was a hell of a war, but its literally on the tail end of 70 years ago)

needlessly and unprovoked, attacked another sovereign state.
Yeh sure, I agree. doesn't change a thing unfortunately

yeah it does. It frames the war as it should be.

 

[Saint]

Nice, now finish the statement, NATO will not invade through Finland? yes or no

NATO is no threat? They're a massive threat to Russia's oligarchal mafia state, the only threat I'd say. Ukraine is begging for NATO to go full involvement and many are supporting the destruction of the Russian regime

Kalingrad is a sacrificial region, much like west Berlin back in the day

This is circular argument stuff. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, no, NATO was not a threat, but now that Russia has started a war, NATO wants to end it, and that includes threatening Russia.

If Russia stopped their war, NATO would no longer be a threat.

The threat (what little there is) is entirely due to Russian aggression.

NATO has not threatened the Russian mafia state, even letting them be kleptocrats for years. The only way they've held them in check is when Russia bribes and threatens its way into neighbouring territories who then ask NATO for help. Again, Russian aggression leading to Russia feeling under threat.

If a burglar with a gun breaks into a home and kills the homeowner who picked up a knife, they don't get to argue self-defence. It's nonsense, I can't understand why you'd entertain it. Russia is by far, historically and by rhetoric, a greater threat to its neighbours than any of its neighbours are to it. Except China.

 

[Zidane98]

Plans from 2023, any evidence of conscripts being dragged off the streets?

You obviously get your information from state media services tovarisch. Luckily there still some independent media sources in Russa:

Russia forcibly sending military deserters to front line: reports

Desertion has been an issue for Russia's military throughout Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

www.newsweek.com

This was happening just last month.

Once again you'll note Russian conscripts are not legally allowed into Ukraine, It's volunteers/prisoners/PMC/mercenaries

Volunteers? Lol. Just like the "volunteers" that were fighting in Donbas when Russia first invaded in 2014. Gotta love those "volunteers" that operated a Buk M! Sam battery that ended up murdering 298 innocent civilians on flight MH17.

Nice, now finish the statement, NATO will not invade through Finland? yes or no

NATO will not and has never had any plans to invade Russia full stop. Through Ukraine, through the Baltics, through Poland to Kaliningrad, through Finland. Putin knows this hence he is happy to leave the Finnish NATO border some 1300km long essentially unguarded so he can redirect those resources on his dream of recreating a new Russian empire or USSR 2.0 lite.

NATO is no threat? They're a massive threat to Russia's oligarchal mafia state, the only threat I'd say. Ukraine is begging for NATO to go full involvement and many are supporting the destruction of the Russian regime

Kalingrad is a sacrificial region, much like west Berlin back in the day



Anti free trade was in regards to your twitter post about the removal of customs thangs at Vladivostok, you posited it as a Chinese take over of the port.

China is absolutely pushing into Russia's far east.

China's quiet push into Russia's far east puts Putin in a pickle

Chinese farmers are outperforming locals in a Russian border region, and Moscow's growing dependency on Beijing may limit its options.

www.newsweek.com

China won't need to take it over to maintain a hegemony over Russia. Your nation will end up as a client state after Putin eventually gives up on his fruitless invasion of Ukraine. It is Afghanistan all over again for you guys.

If they didn't want a war in Europe they shouldn't have tried to switch Ukraine to NATO

They don't want war and didn't try to switch Ukraine to NATO. You, like all tankies, live in an alternate reality with your own set of "facts". The facts are Ukraine has signed many peace treaties with Russia including one which saw it hand over its TU160 Blackjack bomber fleet, large amount of cruise missiles and its nuclear arsenal inherited from the USSR.

Guess what? A rampaging fascist dictator has decided to ignore all that and is now invading Ukraine anyway. What is notable from all of your posts is absolutely zero concern for Ukranian sovereignty.

Does it honestly surprise you considering the above factual information that such a state would seek to join NATO?

Throw in India and that's half the worlds population. You have to accept western hegomony is over

Why would you throw in India? They are not an ally of Russia.

Russia allows Indian recruits to leave its military after Modi-Putin talks

Dozens of Indian citizens were reportedly recruited by Russian armed forces, some of whom complained they had been tricked

uk.news.yahoo.com

The U.S. military utilizes a number of different recruitment methods to garner new enlistments, but their target audience has consistently remained the same: high schoolers, particularly young men from low-income and rural areas
https://prismreports.org/2022/04/18/marginalized-students-military-recruitment/

There is an aristocracy thing in both countries where they put their kids into service for political cred later, they are obviously kept from the front lines. Exception being Stalin who threw his son to the wolves.

Unlike Russia, the US doesn't target ethnic groups to send to the front lines unlike your racist dictator Putin.

Ok not technically mercenaries but arming thousands of 'International brigade' psychos was a little suspect

So you agree that the US doesn't employ mercenaries. Thankyou.

Damn, you're cheap Zids, more than two vodkas a week

I can't manage 5 a night like yourself, I wish I could.

They're throwing troops at suicidal objectives for "political theatre to distract Western allies", is my point

They maintain an embargo on Cuba that means no ship can dock in a US port 6 months after trading with Cuba, this functionally stops cuban trade. They don't have to bomb them when they can starve them

Cuba is not starving and is not being invaded by US despite being openly hostile. A reality you seem to struggle with.

As for the Nicaraguans, it's fine now that they killed the left wing govt
the U.S proceeded to wage an undeclared war against the left-wing Sandinista movement by funding the Contra groups until it was defeated in the election in 1990.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua–United_States_relations

Undeclared war? oh that rings a bell, kinda sounds like a special military occupation. The US hasn't declared war since the Japanese bombed pearl harbour, such a peace loving country

It is 2024, not 1990. Another fail. Next.

Conspiracy? That the US state department and CIA were supportive of euromaiden? Didn't think this was controversial

Absolute nonsense. Euromaidan was driven by the people of Ukraine who rightly were fed up with being a vassall state of Russia. They've been this way since the early 2000s. You, and Putin struggle to accept that some nations want to go in a different direction. Absolutely certain Putin would have done the same to the Baltics in the late 90s before they joined NATO / Eu if he could have.

My sweet summer(capitalist) child, Why was NATO formed?

NATO war formed after WW2 to prevent war breaking out again in Europe with a mutual defensive alliance.

The soviet Union broke and yet still NATO remains and expanded, if it wasn't a threat to Russia surely the EU was enough?

Yes, NATO remains as there are new threats these days. A rampaging fascist dictator for one in Russia who seems to mistakenly think Russia owns half of Europe.


There's also other hostile states, terrorism. Europe will always need a defensive alliance to maintain peace & security.
Not ideal for the mafia gangster who wants to roll the tanks in and take over states he feels he can rape & pillage at his pleasure.

Poland, yeh i'll give you that, was a useless socialist govt. If we bring back the conversation to Ukraine, they have been wrecked by the end of the USSR, once a thriving industrial and agricultural state, now an economic backwater indebted to the IMF for more than they can possibly tax(pre invasion), obviously it's worse now

Yes, because the USSR was so beneficial to Ukraine including holmodor, Chernobyl etc. Ukraine is in a much better place now than it was as a SFSR. That's simply reality.

China is probably under your bed mate, I wouldn't check though

And? China's a major player in world geopolitics, unlike Russia. It can't be stressed enough how much of a failure geopolitically it is for Putin that he has to sign treaties with North Korea and deals with Iran just to maintain his fruitless war.

How utterly embarrassing for a nation that supposedly views itself as a geopolitical power.


Would be like the US having to beg Australia for support to run its military.

Yeh Armenia is kinda cooked here, no allies and an aggressive Azeri. Georgia, after watching Ukraine, have done the smart thing, maintain vassal state

Georgia isn't going to remain a vatnik state. Hate to break it to you.

China isn't a threat to Russia, how does this make sense? China wants the south china sea and taiwan, they also want trade from resource rich central asia(belt and road) and Russia.

Investments in rail and ports doesn't make it China's joint

And that's exactly what China wants tankies like you & Putin to believe. The reality is China is taking over from Russia as the dominant power in Central Asia not by rolling the tanks in but with its belt / road projects. You probably don't even know but China is building gas supply lines that deliberately avoid Russia altogether through central asian republics. Meanwhile Russia wants to supply China more gas as its income has been obliterated by Putin's fruitless invasion of Ukraine.

Small problem is China wants the gas at half price and has insisted that Russia incurs the full cost of building new pipelines to supply the Chinese gas market.

Putin, just like you, is being absolutely played by the Chinese. I realise you can't access all of this news from your internet connection (I note most of your posts are around 1-3am Australian EST or 6-8pm St Petersburg time). So in that essence I can sort of understand your deluded beliefs.

 

[Chief]

NATO has not threatened the Russian mafia state, even letting them be kleptocrats for years.

Half of NATO states have been havens for kleptobux!

$20bil in the UK alone. London property ballooned with incoming grubby cash.

 

[Saint]

Half of NATO states have been havens for kleptobux!

$20bil in the UK alone. London property ballooned with incoming grubby cash.

Which is why it sounds so stupid when people say Russia feels threatened by the EU.

It's where all their families live and where their cash is stashed. They're hardly scared of the places.

It's just a convenient excuse, but when this is pointed out, they never follow up.

 

[barreness]

You obviously get your information from state media services tovarisch. Luckily there still some independent media sources in Russa:

Russia forcibly sending military deserters to front line: reports

Desertion has been an issue for Russia's military throughout Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

www.newsweek.com

This was happening just last month.

Newsweek? really, mate it's AI clickbait. I literally quoted Ukrainian media

Volunteers? Lol. Just like the "volunteers" that were fighting in Donbas when Russia first invaded in 2014. Gotta love those "volunteers" that operated a Buk M! Sam battery that ended up murdering 298 innocent civilians on flight MH17.

You don't think Russia has many volunteers? It's a poor country mate, military salary is a good option for many

NATO will not and has never had any plans to invade Russia full stop.

True, they just had plans to first strike them with nuclear weapons and an in place quasi fascist militia to act as an insurgency if the soviets did(caused a few problems otherwise)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

Through Ukraine, through the Baltics, through Poland to Kaliningrad, through Finland. Putin knows this hence he is happy to leave the Finnish NATO border some 1300km long essentially unguarded so he can redirect those resources on his dream of recreating a new Russian empire or USSR 2.0 lite.

The fact that NATO isn't capable of invading may have something to do with it

China is absolutely pushing into Russia's far east.

Every country has border disputes, this is the closest Russia and china have been since the sino-soviet split

China's quiet push into Russia's far east puts Putin in a pickle

Chinese farmers are outperforming locals in a Russian border region, and Moscow's growing dependency on Beijing may limit its options.

www.newsweek.com

Please get a better source, I'm begging you

China won't need to take it over to maintain a hegemony over Russia. Your nation will end up as a client state after Putin eventually gives up on his fruitless invasion of Ukraine. It is Afghanistan all over again for you guys.

Like yeh kinda, China is the dominant power in Asia, check out your history books peasant

They don't want war and didn't try to switch Ukraine to NATO. You, like all tankies, live in an alternate reality with your own set of "facts". The facts are Ukraine has signed many peace treaties with Russia including one which saw it hand over its TU160 Blackjack bomber fleet, large amount of cruise missiles and its nuclear arsenal inherited from the USSR.

Why do you care so much about the nuclear bomber fleet? they're pretty much obsolete for all sides. Once again, they didn't have the codes to launch the missiles, nor the industry to maintain them, this was soviet policy. The US most certainly didn't want a poor corrupt nation with nuclear ICBM's either

Guess what? A rampaging fascist dictator has decided to ignore all that and is now invading Ukraine anyway. What is notable from all of your posts is absolutely zero concern for Ukranian sovereignty.

Does it honestly surprise you considering the above factual information that such a state would seek to join NATO?

Ukraine was attempting to side with NATO, Russia couldn't allow this, not sure why this is hard to understand

Why would you throw in India? They are not an ally of Russia.

You forget your history comrade, India was 'non aligned' and went kinda soviet with the US arming Pakistan. They maintain this relationship even though they play cricket

Russia allows Indian recruits to leave its military after Modi-Putin talks

Dozens of Indian citizens were reportedly recruited by Russian armed forces, some of whom complained they had been tricked

uk.news.yahoo.com

Unlike Russia, the US doesn't target ethnic groups to send to the front lines unlike your racist dictator Putin.

Got a source for those ethnic groups?

America targets recruits on socio-economics, not race, as the article states. no war but class war comrade

So you agree that the US doesn't employ mercenaries. Thankyou.

Blaclwater? Don't worry about it

I can't manage 5 a night like yourself, I wish I could.

Peasant

Cuba is not starving and is not being invaded by US despite being openly hostile. A reality you seem to struggle with.

Obama normalised relations and allowed trade, Cuba could feed itself. Trump reinstated the embargo and Biden continued it. They are most definitely struggling for food

It is 2024, not 1990. Another fail. Next.

Previous wars don't count, very good. You're like a dementia patient, if it didn't happen in the last five minutes it doesn't count, change your name to goldfish98

Absolute nonsense. Euromaidan was driven by the people of Ukraine who rightly were fed up with being a vassall state of Russia. They've been this way since the early 2000s. You, and Putin struggle to accept that some nations want to go in a different direction. Absolutely certain Putin would have done the same to the Baltics in the late 90s before they joined NATO / Eu if he could have.

Don't disagree, the shame of geopolitics is that the people don't really matter

NATO war formed after WW2 to prevent war breaking out again in Europe with a mutual defensive alliance.

Lol, no it wasn't. It was formed to prevent the soviet union(and communism)from taking western europe

Yes, NATO remains as there are new threats these days. A rampaging fascist dictator for one in Russia who seems to mistakenly think Russia owns half of Europe.

NATO created Putin, you've got this arse backwards. Always a new threat for the MIC

There's also other hostile states, terrorism. Europe will always need a defensive alliance to maintain peace & security.
Not ideal for the mafia gangster who wants to roll the tanks in and take over states he feels he can rape & pillage at his pleasure.

How did the global war on terror go? almost like the forever war is a goal

Yes, because the USSR was so beneficial to Ukraine including holmodor, Chernobyl etc. Ukraine is in a much better place now than it was as a SFSR. That's simply reality.

Check the stats, Ukraine has been much worse off after the collapse of the soviet union than before. They were an industrial and agricultural power house in the USSR, from the 90's they've been a corrupt hole that leaks people and no one wants kids

And? China's a major player in world geopolitics, unlike Russia. It can't be stressed enough how much of a failure geopolitically it is for Putin that he has to sign treaties with North Korea and deals with Iran just to maintain his fruitless war.

How utterly embarrassing for a nation that supposedly views itself as a geopolitical power.

This is the failure of sanctions writ large. They still trade with India and china, whilst engaging with the heavily sanctioned states of real Korea and Iran. Thats half the world

Would be like the US having to beg Australia for support to run its military.

Is this irony? They do that with every war they start, and we agree every time

Georgia isn't going to remain a vatnik state. Hate to break it to you.

They will, it's in their best interest. The hilarious hand wringing about making western sources declare donations to media companies was instructive. The 'Russian law' which exists in the US, europe, and most states worth their salt

And that's exactly what China wants tankies like you & Putin to believe. The reality is China is taking over from Russia as the dominant power in Central Asia not by rolling the tanks in but with its belt / road projects. You probably don't even know but China is building gas supply lines that deliberately avoid Russia altogether through central asian republics. Meanwhile Russia wants to supply China more gas as its income has been obliterated by Putin's fruitless invasion of Ukraine.

I don't disagree with this, not sure where you got this from. China is and will remain the dominant power in Asia.

Doesn't this work for tankies? As China is state capitalism and Russia is oligarchal capitalism?

Small problem is China wants the gas at half price and has insisted that Russia incurs the full cost of building new pipelines to supply the Chinese gas market.

And they'll do it, Sanctions bring China and Russia together as I stated

Putin, just like you, is being absolutely played by the Chinese. I realise you can't access all of this news from your internet connection (I note most of your posts are around 1-3am Australian EST or 6-8pm St Petersburg time). So in that essence I can sort of understand your deluded beliefs.

I'm an alcoholic night owl, we've been through this comrade

It's funny you call me a bot/shill when you've spent a decade defending Israel in the other thread. It's even funnier that you bitched out when you lost argument after argument, at least have conviction

Where are you from Zidane? France or you like him from FIFA? 98, just a pup. I'm a 34yo from Yokine if you're interested, freo fan and musician. Yourself?

 

[barreness]

This is circular argument stuff. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, no, NATO was not a threat, but now that Russia has started a war, NATO wants to end it, and that includes threatening Russia.

If Russia stopped their war, NATO would no longer be a threat.

The threat (what little there is) is entirely due to Russian aggression.

NATO has not threatened the Russian mafia state, even letting them be kleptocrats for years. The only way they've held them in check is when Russia bribes and threatens its way into neighbouring territories who then ask NATO for help. Again, Russian aggression leading to Russia feeling under threat.

If a burglar with a gun breaks into a home and kills the homeowner who picked up a knife, they don't get to argue self-defence. It's nonsense, I can't understand why you'd entertain it. Russia is by far, historically and by rhetoric, a greater threat to its neighbours than any of its neighbours are to it. Except China.

Yep, very circular, in that the US created the Russian mafia state after the Soviet collapse
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/...ussian-oligarchs-and-paved-the-path-for-putin
Shock doctrine is worth a read

The US needs constant war, their history proves this. Russia could never be accepted into Europe(EU/NATO) because the US needs an enemy, they tried in the 90's and were laughed at

Western Europe was invaded by the US in the mid 40's, they have never left, Eastern Europe was invaded by the soviet union in the mid 40's and they left after the soviet collapse in the 90's. Right now the US has almost all of Europe and it freaks the Russians out, any kind of geopolitical analysis could understand why it was dumb to push Ukraine into the western alliance

 

[Saint]

Yep, very circular, in that the US created the Russian mafia state after the Soviet collapse
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/...ussian-oligarchs-and-paved-the-path-for-putin
Shock doctrine is worth a read

The US needs constant war, their history proves this. Russia could never be accepted into Europe(EU/NATO) because the US needs an enemy, they tried in the 90's and were laughed at

Western Europe was invaded by the US in the mid 40's, they have never left, Eastern Europe was invaded by the soviet union in the mid 40's and they left after the soviet collapse in the 90's. Right now the US has almost all of Europe and it freaks the Russians out, any kind of geopolitical analysis could understand why it was dumb to push Ukraine into the western alliance

The US doesn't "Have" almost all of Europe. Those are free states. It's what Russia and its supporters seem to fail to understand. Those states just want NATO to protect them from Russia who actually want puppet Governments.

Russia considers democracies as puppets, not because they are, but just because they're not puppets of Russia, they can't fathom how else a Government is run because to them democracy is a completely alien concept.

 

[Saint]

Yep, very circular, in that the US created the Russian mafia state after the Soviet collapse
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/...ussian-oligarchs-and-paved-the-path-for-putin
Shock doctrine is worth a read

The US needs constant war, their history proves this. Russia could never be accepted into Europe(EU/NATO) because the US needs an enemy, they tried in the 90's and were laughed at

Western Europe was invaded by the US in the mid 40's, they have never left, Eastern Europe was invaded by the soviet union in the mid 40's and they left after the soviet collapse in the 90's. Right now the US has almost all of Europe and it freaks the Russians out, any kind of geopolitical analysis could understand why it was dumb to push Ukraine into the western alliance

Also, the US didn't create the Russian mafia state. Russia did. The same people in charge pre-collapse, handed themselves all the goodies.

 

[Zidane98]

Newsweek? really, mate it's AI clickbait. I literally quoted Ukrainian media

Russia to Draft 130K Young Men in Fall Military Call-Up - The Moscow Times

Russia’s military will enlist 130,000 young men for compulsory service this fall, according to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin on Friday.

www.themoscowtimes.com

How Russia’s ‘Covert Mobilization’ Finds Manpower for the War in Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Russia is likely to keep banking on various coercion tactics to bolster its military manpower in Ukraine, experts say, a strategy that has proven effective at ensuring a continuous supply of fresh recruits to the front lines for the past two years. The Russian military has been pushing to...

www.themoscowtimes.com

“Drafted on the same day, slashed his wrists upon arrival at his army unit”: Coercive tactics in Russian military conscription

The conclusion of the autumn conscription in Russia is near. Commencing with raids on migrants and arrests near metro exits, the methods employed by military commissars have grown progressively sophisticated and severe each week. People were forcibly extracted from hostels, dormitories, plucked...

theins.ru

Do you enjoy continually being incorrect? Hope it doesn't cost you a job!!

You don't think Russia has many volunteers? It's a poor country mate, military salary is a good option for many

We all know they aren't really "volunteers".

True, they just had plans to first strike them with nuclear weapons and an in place quasi fascist militia to act as an insurgency if the soviets did(caused a few problems otherwise)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

The fact that NATO isn't capable of invading may have something to do with it

NATO has zero interest in invading full stop.

Every country has border disputes, this is the closest Russia and china have been since the sino-soviet split

Please get a better source, I'm begging you

Like yeh kinda, China is the dominant power in Asia, check out your history books peasant

Russia sees itself as the dominant power amongst former USSR states in Central Asia. However this is changing, mostly because Putin is expending Russian resources on the Ukraine invasion which brings no benefit to the so called Russian federation and is actually undermining its sovereignty.

Why do you care so much about the nuclear bomber fleet? they're pretty much obsolete for all sides. Once again, they didn't have the codes to launch the missiles, nor the industry to maintain them, this was soviet policy. The US most certainly didn't want a poor corrupt nation with nuclear ICBM's either

I don't care about it. The facts are Ukraine gave it up in exchange for a Russian guarantee of Ukraine's borders / sovereignty.

Also Ukrainian SSR played a significant role in development of soviet nuclear weapons arsenal, they could have kept their arsenal they already possessed for themselves if they wanted.

Ultimately, they were encouraged by the US and other NATO nuclear states to give them up to Russia in the interests of regional security.

It is certain that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if this never happened.

Ukraine was attempting to side with NATO, Russia couldn't allow this, not sure why this is hard to understand

Ukraine was not attempting to side with anyone. Ukraine is no currently a NATO state and won't be for many years to come even if a MAP is accepted.

You forget your history comrade, India was 'non aligned' and went kinda soviet with the US arming Pakistan. They maintain this relationship even though they play cricket

India has a much close relationship with the UK / US than it ever will with Russia. I'd say India's only interest is cheap oil and/or cheap military equipment.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-raises-us-oil-imports-june-cuts-russia-data-shows-2024-07-24/

China and Russia voted for a UNSC resolution that condemns Russian aggression against Ukraine

China votes for UN resolution with reference to Russia's 'aggression'

The resolution is not centred on the Ukraine war and instead calls for greater cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Got a source for those ethnic groups?

America targets recruits on socio-economics, not race, as the article states. no war but class war comrade

I'm calling bullshit on this

Blaclwater? Don't worry about it


Peasant

Obama normalised relations and allowed trade, Cuba could feed itself. Trump reinstated the embargo and Biden continued it. They are most definitely struggling for food

Previous wars don't count, very good. You're like a dementia patient, if it didn't happen in the last five minutes it doesn't count, change your name to goldfish98

Don't disagree, the shame of geopolitics is that the people don't really matter

Lol, no it wasn't. It was formed to prevent the soviet union(and communism)from taking western europe

NATO created Putin, you've got this arse backwards. Always a new threat for the MIC

How did the global war on terror go? almost like the forever war is a goal

What an absolute steaming pile of horseshit.

Putin's a deluded cold war era dinosaur that honestly believes he can resurrect the "great Russian empire". Russia as a whole really needs new leadership that isn't stuck in this cold war era mentality as it only sets the nation back further and further.

Even Putin himself tried to get Russia in NATO. The NATO-Russia council was formed, Russia has taken part in many NATO exercises.

Check the stats, Ukraine has been much worse off after the collapse of the soviet union than before. They were an industrial and agricultural power house in the USSR, from the 90's they've been a corrupt hole that leaks people and no one wants kids

Russia too was a basket case post USSR breakup. As were many other former USSR states. Putin has turned Russia back into an economic basketcase with his current invasion.

This is the failure of sanctions writ large. They still trade with India and china, whilst engaging with the heavily sanctioned states of real Korea and Iran. Thats half the world

Calling the current trade balance with India & China as a win is extremely delusional. It is a one way trading partnership where India & China only trade when Russia is forced to supply natural resources at significantly discounted prices compared to previous markets it had access to.


Thanks to Putin Russia's natural resources income has been absolutely obliterated. Destroyed. And it is 100% his fault. To make matters worse Putin is pillaging the Russian national wealth fund now which is a disaster for the average every day person in Russia like yourself.

Is this irony? They do that with every war they start, and we agree every time

They will, it's in their best interest. The hilarious hand wringing about making western sources declare donations to media companies was instructive. The 'Russian law' which exists in the US, europe, and most states worth their salt

I don't disagree with this, not sure where you got this from. China is and will remain the dominant power in Asia.

Doesn't this work for tankies? As China is state capitalism and Russia is oligarchal capitalism?

And they'll do it, Sanctions bring China and Russia together as I stated

Once again China's only interest is Russia being weakened as a state so it can therefore capitalise on cheap natural resources. The more isolated Russia becomes, the more it depends on China. You don't realise it but the more Putin turns Russia into a dysfunctional military dictatorship the more China benefits.

With the end result being Russia ending up as North Korea MK 2 and former USSR republics in Central Asia being dominated by Chinese influence.

I'm an alcoholic night owl, we've been through this comrade

It's funny you call me a bot/shill when you've spent a decade defending Israel in the other thread. It's even funnier that you bitched out when you lost argument after argument, at least have conviction

You've repeated just about every line a Russian bot would repeat.

Where are you from Zidane? France or you like him from FIFA? 98, just a pup. I'm a 34yo from Yokine if you're interested, freo fan and musician. Yourself?

42, Melbourne, Hawthorn fan. Big fan of Zidane from his France 98 exploits. Fav football player of all time.

How's Russia going to fare with its world cup qualifying campaign out of interest?

 

[Zidane98]

The really rich Russians are still there, and in France and Switzerland, but their kids have lived their whole lives there and don't have Russian accents any more.

If you've been to Vietnam or Thailand post-invasion, that's where the middle class Russians have escaped to, presumable to dodge the draft.

There were plenty of Russians in Bali on my last visit.



Also makes a mockery of Russia's ridiculous UK nuke threats. They aren't nuking their own and also guaranteeing Russian military bases in European Russia are vaporised by return nukes.

 

[Zidane98]

Also, the US didn't create the Russian mafia state. Russia did. The same people in charge pre-collapse, handed themselves all the goodies.

There's a belief (incorrectly) amongst the cold war era dinosaurs like Putin/Lavrov etc that the US is responsible for the collapse of the USSR.


In reality the USSR was far too centralised and focused on Moscow and / or winning an arms war that it simply could not. Why would a Ukranian or someone living in the Baltics want to live a life effectively under serfdom for the ultimate benefit of the political elite in Moscow and furtherment of USSR military objectives?

Gorbachev tried to bring reform to decentralise the USSR economy but that was simply a fruitless exercise.


A state the size of USSR was never going to last long term in the modern world. Even the Chinese recognised absolute communism does not work in modern times.

 

[Saint]

There's a belief (incorrectly) amongst the cold war era dinosaurs like Putin/Lavrov etc that the US is responsible for the collapse of the USSR.


In reality the USSR was far too centralised and focused on Moscow and / or winning an arms war that it simply could not. Why would a Ukranian or someone living in the Baltics want to live a life effectively under serfdom for the ultimate benefit of the political elite in Moscow and furtherment of USSR military objectives?

Gorbachev tried to bring reform to decentralise the USSR economy but that was simply a fruitless exercise.


A state the size of USSR was never going to last long term in the modern world. Even the Chinese recognised absolute communism does not work in modern times.

There is an argument that if the arms race never happened, maybe Russia would have had a slow capitalist revolution like China has had.

The problem was that Russia kept invading neighbours and wouldn't let SSRs leave. They even re-invaded Czechoslovakia just because they weren't being communist enough.

Russia's aggression is the reason neighbours build up arms, it just happens that the US was the best place to buy arms other than Russia and you don't want to be reliant on the country you're worried is going to invade you for weapons.

The US won the weapons war not necessarily because their stuff was better or cheaper, just that most of the world was worried Russia would invade them, so best not to be too reliant.

Everything which has happened to Russia was brought upon Russia by its leaders. Blaming outsiders is just what most Governments do to try to deflect blame.

Even in Australia, it's immigrants who get the blame for cost of living, even if we taxed gas at the same rate that Qatar does, our gas-tax-revenue would go from $17b per annum to $170bn. Taxes would plummet, hospitals and schools and roads would all be better and we'd all be relatively rich (house prices would boooom!!).

 

[Saint]

I think a big part of what is driving Putin is that when he first gained power, Russia was still number 2 in many ways. People still worried about them militarily, economically on a global level.

Throughout his reign, he's seen Russia slide down the totem pole to somewhere about as significant as Australia. A big supplier of raw materials to power growth, but the places that are growing are Asia, Europe and Nth America.

Talking about Russia is now about what a mess it is. They've got raw materials subsidising a military with no purpose other than expansion which is looked upon by the rest of the world with derision.

Putin's legacy is taking Russia from relevance to derision. He's just making some last desperate, pathetic plays at relevance which real growth power like India and China are taking advantage of. Putin is so lacking in foresight that he cant' fathom growth from within, and only expansionism. And Russia's the only country with this 100 year-out-dated thinking.

Everyone else is building resilient, service and tech based industries. Russia's doing some 1960's style warfare and resource-grabbing. Just a bit of cyber-crime too, to pretend they're down with the kids. But for every external crime undertaken by those hackers, there's probably 10 they're running on local soil.

 

[Cap]

Has everyone heard the reports that Ukraine POWs are being returned without internal organs.

I'll be curious to know which war the US entered which justify this stuff

 

[Zidane98]

Once the Ukraine and Russia war is over it will be in everyone’s interest to normalise relations quickly.
Can’t see Russia becoming the new North Korea, they are too important.

That's the problem for Russia. They're not important anymore. Putin's made no attempt to divest the economy, he relied on natural resource income. And he has smashed to pieces the biggest source of natural resource income - gas to European markets. Urals oil now trades consistently $10-15 / bl under European & Asian market prices. That is why since this year Putin has been pillaging the Russian national wealth fund to fund his invasion - not a good thing for the every day Russian.

As long as Putin keeps up the invasion this will continue, permanently.


Europe has switched irreversibly away from Russian gas through renewables and alternate supplies. Going forward Russia's main markets for natural gas will mostly be domestic consumption along with China & India if they can buy it at a knock down price.


If Russia wants to normalise relations it'll have to pursue trading with Europe as an equal bilateral partner. It is in the interests of Russia to do so as without Europe Russia will gradually become a hermit state.

 

[Hornberger]

NATO has not threatened the Russian mafia state, even letting them be kleptocrats for years.

Prior to 2022, NATO had spent the last 30 years cutting back on defence spending and letting their defence capabilities significantly decline. NATO wasn't a threat to Russia, NATO didn't care about Russia.

 

[Saint]

Prior to 2022, NATO had spent the last 30 years cutting back on defence spending and letting their defence capabilities significantly decline. NATO wasn't a threat to Russia, NATO didn't care about Russia.

Nobody cared about Russia any more, which is what upset Putin the most, I think. Now he's at North Korean levels of caring. Yes, they're crazy and armed. Stupid, but crazy and armed. So we have to defend against them, but we won't accept them as equals for a very long time, and that will upset them, so they'll start another war until they're taken seriously (not for a very long time, and only after they stop doing stupid stuff).

 

[Zidane98]

Nobody cared about Russia any more, which is what upset Putin the most, I think. Now he's at North Korean levels of caring. Yes, they're crazy and armed. Stupid, but crazy and armed. So we have to defend against them, but we won't accept them as equals for a very long time, and that will upset them, so they'll start another war until they're taken seriously (not for a very long time, and only after they stop doing stupid stuff).

What are the chances post war they could do what Japan did post ww2 with the EU playing the role the US did with post WW2 Japan in Russia?

 

[Andre]

Once the Ukraine and Russia war is over it will be in everyone’s interest to normalise relations quickly.
Can’t see Russia becoming the new North Korea, they are too important.

Russia is a middle weight country, who inherited the Soviet equipment, including nuclear weapons. They are only important to the world, because they threaten other countries and need to be closely watched.

Outside their military they don't produce many of the goods or services in high demand in the 21st century. Their main revenue source is fossil fuels, that even leaving aside pissing off Europe, is a time limited resource, as countries move away from them. Russia could have gone the route of many other countries that are large fossil fuel producers and put that money into sovereign wealth funds to improve the country (not the military), whilst transitioning away from them.

Ukraine, right next door and sharing much of the ex-Soviet history had become a software development centre prior to the war, looking to integrate with Europe, whilst still being an agricultural and resource producing country. Russia had their chance to be the same.

Add in Russia's demographic decline and the best they can hope for is to become something like Britain. A former ruler of an Empire, that is now firmly a rung below the economic / demographic powers of the US, China and India. They (Britain) are a country whose opinion is often sought or listened to, but they no longer dictate in any major way how the world is run or how other countries should act. The sooner Russia accepts they similarly now belong at the table adjacent to 'the big boys' and not at the main table, the quicker they can prioritise actually improving the lives of Russians and Russia. Along with being accepted by the rest of the world as a normal country, not an historical oddity, still stuck in a pre-WW2 Empire mindset, that can't be trusted or dealt with normally.

 

[Saint]

Russia is a middle weight country, who inherited the Soviet equipment, including nuclear weapons. They are only important to the world, because they threaten other countries and need to be closely watched.

Outside their military they don't produce many of the goods or services in high demand in the 21st century. Their main revenue source is fossil fuels, that even leaving aside pissing off Europe, is a time limited resource, as countries move away from them. Russia could have gone the route of many other countries that are large fossil fuel producers and put that money into sovereign wealth funds to improve the country (not the military), whilst transitioning away from them.

Ukraine, right next door and sharing much of the ex-Soviet history had become a software development centre prior to the war, looking to integrate with Europe, whilst still being an agricultural and resource producing country. Russia had their chance to be the same.

Add in Russia's demographic decline and the best they can hope for is to become something like Britain. A former ruler of an Empire, that is now firmly a rung below the economic / demographic powers of the US, China and India. They (Britain) are a country whose opinion is often sought or listened to, but they no longer dictate in any major way how the world is run or how other countries should act. The sooner Russia accepts they similarly now belong at the table adjacent to 'the big boys' and not at the main table, the quicker they can prioritise actually improving the lives of Russians and Russia. Along with being accepted by the rest of the world as a normal country, not an historical oddity, still stuck in a pre-WW2 Empire mindset, that can't be trusted or dealt with normally.

Yes, I think they missed the boat in the mid-2000's, when they were still a chance of continuing their technological leadership of the Soviet era. But instead of producing microchips and tech companies, they decided to go for cyber-theft and reliance on China.

People forget that Russia was at the technological fore-front in many many areas during the Soviet era, driven by military innovation investment. All that slowly disappeared as the leaders focused on turning a profit rather than investing in the future.

What are the chances post war they could do what Japan did post ww2 with the EU playing the role the US did with post WW2 Japan in Russia?

There's a big chance for that in Ukraine. Unless Russia turns toward investment and away from raw profiteering, they're going to continue to slide into obscurity. Russia doesn't even produce all the parts for its own military, relying on imports. No aviation industry, no finance, no software, no tourism. Just exporting raw materials. They have been exporting nuclear technology, but now China are building their own, it'll just be a partnership with Iran developing their nuclear capability.