Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[CD Xbow]

What are the chances post war they could do what Japan did post ww2 with the EU playing the role the US did with post WW2 Japan in Russia?

None, zero, zilch.

 

[Mobbs]

French vatnik unmasked

The IOC are on the hot seat for poorly vetting Russian athletes intending to compete. The basic rule is that they are not permitted to be part of pro-war events or seen to be endorsing pro-war media. The Telegraph podcast has a lot today about how they are going about this process in a very suss way.

Here's another article on the guy that was arrested. They reckon it will be possible to charge him with espionage.

Russian chef unmasked as ‘spy in plot to sabotage Paris Olympics’

Kirill Gryaznov charged after alluding to mission on an intercepted call

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Smeg Head]

The IOC are on the hot seat for poorly vetting Russian athletes intending to compete. The basic rule is that they are not permitted to be part of pro-war events or seen to be endorsing pro-war media. The Telegraph podcast has a lot today about how they are going about this process in a very suss way.

Here's another article on the guy that was arrested. They reckon it will be possible to charge him with espionage.

Russian chef unmasked as ‘spy in plot to sabotage Paris Olympics’

Kirill Gryaznov charged after alluding to mission on an intercepted call

www.telegraph.co.uk

The large scale rail infrastructure sabotage in France today also stinks of Russia.

 

[Mobbs]

The large scale rail infrastructure sabotage in France today also stinks of Russia.

I'll need to get off Minecraft and onto Google. I hadn't heard of this story.

 

[Smeg Head]

I'll need to get off Minecraft and onto Google. I hadn't heard of this story.

France's high-speed rail network hit by arson attacks hours before Olympics ceremony

Fires started in railway cabling have impacted up to 800,000 people across the French railway network on the eve of the Paris Olympics.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Cap]

What are the chances post war they could do what Japan did post ww2 with the EU playing the role the US did with post WW2 Japan in Russia?

I think there is opportunity if the West is brave enough to help some of the captured Republics. Whilst rebuilding Ukraine they can help those Republics build their own Govts

'Russia' probably not.

 

[wannabejack]

EU sends first $1.6 billion from frozen Russia assets to Ukraine

The European Union says it had made 1.5 billion euros available to support Ukraine, the first tranche of money generated from profits on frozen Russian assets

abcnews.go.com

EU headquarters said that 90% of the money would be put into a special fund known as the European Peace Facility that many EU countries already use to get reimbursed for arms and ammunition they send to Ukraine.

 

[wannabejack]

NATO membership must be granted even if that includes a proviso that membership will not be granted for the duration of the current war or alternatively that Ukraine's NATO membership would not Article 5 to be invoked during the current war.

This would take the joining NATO question off the negotiation table when or if negotiations start. Treaties (memorandum etc.) do not work with russia.

 

[Saint]

This would take the joining NATO question off the negotiation table when or if negotiations start. Treaties (memorandum etc.) do not work with russia.

When was the last time Russia didn't break a peace treaty they signed?

Or maybe the correct question is "what's the average time taken before Russia breaks a treaty it signs, on average"

 

[Zidane98]

When was the last time Russia didn't break a peace treaty they signed?

Or maybe the correct question is "what's the average time taken before Russia breaks a treaty it signs, on average"

They've signed a mutual defense treaty with Nth Korea that hasn't been broken yet.

 

[barreness]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-battle-gains.html
In recent months, the experts say, Russian forces have increasingly focused on identifying weakened and poorly organized Ukrainian units before breaking through by throwing scores of troops and armored vehicles onto the battlefield.

Obviously it's US prop and they're manufacturing consent for the eventual negotiation. I'd say it's becoming clear, very slow with the f16's for obvious reasons.

They'll call it a win and cede territory, should have been done two years ago

 

[barreness]

The US doesn't "Have" almost all of Europe. Those are free states. It's what Russia and its supporters seem to fail to understand. Those states just want NATO to protect them from Russia who actually want puppet Governments.

Russia considers democracies as puppets, not because they are, but just because they're not puppets of Russia, they can't fathom how else a Government is run because to them democracy is a completely alien concept.

I mean I disagree, they are most definitely vassals of the US, same as us in aus. They have a little more rope than say Belarus, but the deal isn't fundamentally changed.

N.B. As a side, the neoliberal project has been so bloody successful. Has taken both sides in pretty much every "democratic society". This was not common policy in the 60's, and now it's taught in every university and believed at every level of govt

I think you're naive

 

[barreness]

Also, the US didn't create the Russian mafia state. Russia did. The same people in charge pre-collapse, handed themselves all the goodies.

yeh kinda

The factions that tried a coup and the public that voted for socialism didn't get anything, they won't feature in the history record

The shock doctrine of US imported economists and the Russians ones that agreed(traitors) have burnt eastern Europe beyond repair, see the despair of the last 30 years that most are only just recovering from

 

[barreness]

There is zero reason to depopulate the world, if we allocated resources more fairly and stoped relying on things fossil fuels the world would be fine

I've only really ever seen the depopulate argument from white people wanting less brown people.

I don't asume thats you, I assume you've naively been sucked into the narrative without understanding its origins.

Choose one

Energy blind, you'll get it eventually

 

[barreness]

Yes, the point was to show that aren't just front line hospitals.

The last 70 years ? The main culprit of hospital attacks over the last 70 years has been Russia, Syria and the Taliban. (I mean Vietnam was a hell of a war, but its literally on the tail end of 70 years ago)

yeah it does. It frames the war as it should be.

What's Israel doing at the moment? with who's munitions?

What did the US do in Iraq? how many medical facilities in Fallujah

Is Libya doing well after the NATO bombing run and SAS insertion

 

[barreness]

This is circular argument stuff. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, no, NATO was not a threat, but now that Russia has started a war, NATO wants to end it, and that includes threatening Russia.

If Russia stopped their war, NATO would no longer be a threat.

The threat (what little there is) is entirely due to Russian aggression.

NATO has not threatened the Russian mafia state, even letting them be kleptocrats for years. The only way they've held them in check is when Russia bribes and threatens its way into neighbouring territories who then ask NATO for help. Again, Russian aggression leading to Russia feeling under threat.

If a burglar with a gun breaks into a home and kills the homeowner who picked up a knife, they don't get to argue self-defence. It's nonsense, I can't understand why you'd entertain it. Russia is by far, historically and by rhetoric, a greater threat to its neighbours than any of its neighbours are to it. Except China.

It is circular, that's war right

Putin changed tack after Libya, there were reasons
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/libya-russia-ukraine-putin/626571/
U.S. administration officials such as then–Vice President Joe Biden pressed the issue with Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president at the time, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton helped seal the deal with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov over the phone, standing backstage at a television studio after a town-hall event in Tunis. The UN resolution authorized “all necessary measures” to protect civilians in Libya, which included, but was not limited to, a no-fly zone. Russia would not approve the resolution, so the Obama administration was hoping that it would at least abstain, rather than veto the move, during the vote at the Security Council. “C’mon, Sergei, this is important, and the Arab League and the Arab countries are behind us,” Clinton told Lavrov. Medvedev agreed to abstain and, a few hours later, the vote passed. Within a few days, the military campaign over Libyan skies began.

Russia’s abstention was seen by the Obama administration as a diplomatic success. Putin, however, saw it as proof of the West’s treachery. He described the resolution as a “medieval call for a crusade,” another war in a long line of wars initiated by the West—from Serbia to Afghanistan to Iraq—to pursue regime change, sometimes under false pretexts, and ultimately dictate the rules of the global order.

 

[Saint]

I mean I disagree, they are most definitely vassals of the US, same as us in aus. They have a little more rope than say Belarus, but the deal isn't fundamentally changed.

N.B. As a side, the neoliberal project has been so bloody successful. Has taken both sides in pretty much every "democratic society". This was not common policy in the 60's, and now it's taught in every university and believed at every level of govt

I think you're naive

In what way are countries of Europe vassals of the US? Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, in which way does the USA exert power over any of these?

There's a difference between choosing the same democratic and economic structure and having one forced upon you.

Choosing democracy is not becoming a vassal state to every other democracy in the world. Unlike becoming a vassal to Russia's oligarchy.

 

[Jamolad]

Why do you continually try to drag this thread into bullshit topics like CO2, de-population, global warming, and all the things the US and the West have done wrong in the past. I notice you really ramped up dragging off topic when Russia hit the kid's hospital.

No shit the US has done some shit things - and there are thread(s) in which you can discuss it (and where you try to draw a long bow to justify posting it here, you are probably looking for the "Backdrop to the war in Ukraine" thread).

And the things they've done that you keep raising - I don't see anyone here applying double-standards where they say what the US/West have done is acceptable. It is shit when the US, Israel or anyone in the West (and North, South or East) do it; and it is shit when Russia does it too (which is the topic of this thread).

The only double-standards I see applied in this thread is you.

You criticise Ukraine for fighting for their land, fighting for their people and their culture, and blame them for unnecessary deaths - your thoughts on Ukraine are very clear:

...Ukraine should have remained a Russian vassal

But when anyone blames Putin for the war and the blood of 10s or 100s of thousands of poor Russian soldiers, your thoughts on Russia/Putin are also clear.

Because he's trying to maintain sovereignty? Kinda his job

Where's the consistency? And you wonder why you get referred to as a Vatnik.

 

[Cap]

What's Israel doing at the moment? with who's munitions?

What did the US do in Iraq? how many medical facilities in Fallujah

Is Libya doing well after the NATO bombing run and SAS insertion

What does that have to do with Russia ?

 

[Cap]

Choose one

Energy blind, you'll get it eventually

i don't need to pick one.

Its a nonsense position to have.

the only people that have it are usually white people wanting less non white people, there is no other reason.

 

[Jamolad]

Before you ask us this barreness, here is the price of eggs in China:

The retail price range in Yuan Renminbi for eggs is between CNY 1.34 and CNY 4.01 per kilogram or between CNY 0.61 and CNY 1.82 per pound(lb) in Beijing and Shanghai.

 

[Saint]

It is circular, that's war right

Putin changed tack after Libya, there were reasons
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/libya-russia-ukraine-putin/626571/
U.S. administration officials such as then–Vice President Joe Biden pressed the issue with Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president at the time, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton helped seal the deal with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov over the phone, standing backstage at a television studio after a town-hall event in Tunis. The UN resolution authorized “all necessary measures” to protect civilians in Libya, which included, but was not limited to, a no-fly zone. Russia would not approve the resolution, so the Obama administration was hoping that it would at least abstain, rather than veto the move, during the vote at the Security Council. “C’mon, Sergei, this is important, and the Arab League and the Arab countries are behind us,” Clinton told Lavrov. Medvedev agreed to abstain and, a few hours later, the vote passed. Within a few days, the military campaign over Libyan skies began.

Russia’s abstention was seen by the Obama administration as a diplomatic success. Putin, however, saw it as proof of the West’s treachery. He described the resolution as a “medieval call for a crusade,” another war in a long line of wars initiated by the West—from Serbia to Afghanistan to Iraq—to pursue regime change, sometimes under false pretexts, and ultimately dictate the rules of the global order.

So Russia abstained and then sooked-up after. Sounds like them.

 

[Saint]

yeh kinda

The factions that tried a coup and the public that voted for socialism didn't get anything, they won't feature in the history record

The shock doctrine of US imported economists and the Russians ones that agreed(traitors) have burnt eastern Europe beyond repair, see the despair of the last 30 years that most are only just recovering from

Imagine reading history in this way that you view the murderous Russian KGB agents who took over Russia as pawns of a bunch of US economists?

Yes, some nerd Professor from Chicago twisted Putin's arm until he killed all his rivals and stole everything. And then the professors went home with nothing but satisfaction?

Poor old Vlad Putin, bullied by the economics department.

It's fairy tale stuff.

 

[Visions]

More Russians winning in Africa.

Wagner forces took a hit in Mali with a few dozen dead and captured by rebels including a prominent Russian mil blogger.

The rebels have offered to pass on the Wagner prisoners to Ukraine.

 

[Zidane98]

Why do you continually try to drag this thread into bullshit topics like CO2, de-population, global warming, and all the things the US and the West have done wrong in the past. I notice you really ramped up dragging off topic when Russia hit the kid's hospital.

No shit the US has done some shit things - and there are thread(s) in which you can discuss it (and where you try to draw a long bow to justify posting it here, you are probably looking for the "Backdrop to the war in Ukraine" thread).

And the things they've done that you keep raising - I don't see anyone here applying double-standards where they say what the US/West have done is acceptable. It is shit when the US, Israel or anyone in the West (and North, South or East) do it; and it is shit when Russia does it too (which is the topic of this thread).

The only double-standards I see applied in this thread is you.

You criticise Ukraine for fighting for their land, fighting for their people and their culture, and blame them for unnecessary deaths - your thoughts on Ukraine are very clear:



But when anyone blames Putin for the war and the blood of 10s or 100s of thousands of poor Russian soldiers, your thoughts on Russia/Putin are also clear.



Where's the consistency? And you wonder why you get referred to as a Vatnik.

It's tankie 101. Relate everything back to the US, obfuscate with irrelevant nonsense. But Iraq, but this etc etc.


They can't possibly understand the concept of Ukraine wanting to choose its own path, that being a vassal state of Russia has been a disaster for it.

And of course everything is going great for Russia despite Black Sea fleet becoming the Azov Sea fleet, 18% interest rates, 7% inflation, rouble being worthless plus Russia banned from a whole host of international associations for being a bunch of fascist invaders.