Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[barreness]

The economists didnt try to create the oligarchs. That was all russias doing.

And trying to argue that extremely left wing economists like jeffrey sachs is neoliberal is just plain laughable. The guy is one of the last men left defending venzuela and china.

Righto
Sachs and IMF economist David Lipton advised the rapid conversion of all property and assets from public to private ownership.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Sachs#Advising_in_post-communist_economies

 

[barreness]

Apart from Putin withdrawing Russian forces how else could it have finished 2 years ago?

Peace deal was on the table mid 2022, shit it was only Crimea and independant republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, now Ukraine's position is significantly worse

 

[barreness]

I wish those US economists would play that trick on me.

They did, in 1975

https://independentaustralia.net/po...e-secret-life-of-bob-hawke-us-informant,15262

 

[RonSon]

Peace deal was on the table mid 2022, shit it was only Crimea and independant republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, now Ukraine's position is significantly worse

Why do you think the deal wasn't accepted?

 

[Mobbs]

Why do you think the deal wasn't accepted?

inb4 Boris Johnson

 

[Cap]

Did they get a telling off? Where has Russia congratulated soldiers for killing civilians?

here is but 1 example https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-putin-medals-bucha-b2060568.html


Honestly, your ignorance has to be deliberate at this stage.

Sure man, predicting this war will end in a negotiation and land ceding is right on the edge, bloodthirsty orc slayers that will never appease are the sane ones

No one here is blood thirsty, just aware what happens to Ukrainians if Putin wins

And lets be honest, you have 0 care for Ukraine, your position here is solely 'russia isn't thay bad' for whatever reason you can make at any given time as the atrocities mount up

 

[Nothing]

They did, in 1975

https://independentaustralia.net/po...e-secret-life-of-bob-hawke-us-informant,15262

With my billions I'll buy a sports team.

I think I can afford the Dowerin Devils croquet team.

 

[barreness]

Why do you think the deal wasn't accepted?

Ukraine did remarkably well in countering the intial decapitation strike, they thought they could push back and got the full support of NATO/others with arms promises.

The narrative of the Bucha massacre being the reason for cutting off negotiations seems a long bow. I don't doubt it happened, Russian story is rubbish, but being willing to churn a few tens of thousands for a dozen victims is foolhardy at best

 

[barreness]

here is but 1 example https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-putin-medals-bucha-b2060568.html


Honestly, your ignorance has to be deliberate at this stage.

Ukranian MoD, I'm skeptical. Zero trust in Russia's Mod either

Independant evidence has like a dozen dead for proof, meanwhile claims of hundreds if not thousands, pretty obviously wartime propaganda
https://www.bbc.com/news/60981238

No one here is blood thirsty, just aware what happens to Ukrainians if Putin wins

What happens?

Russia has been occupying a quarter of Ukraine for a couple of years now, POW not treated well is about the best they can spin

And lets be honest, you have 0 care for Ukraine, your position here is solely 'russia isn't thay bad' for whatever reason you can make at any given time as the atrocities mount up

I think very few here have genuine concern for Ukranians(bar Mobbs). I'm on the harm reduction side though, more than I can say for most, would rather avoid a nuclear exchange also

My position here is that you all eat up the narrative without question and ignore reality, its unhealthy

https://michaelwest.com.au/the-secret-wars-anti-russian-bot-army-exposed-by-australian-researchers/
An anti-Russia propaganda campaign originating from a ‘bot army’ of fake automated Twitter accounts flooded the internet at the start of the war. The research shows of the more than 5 million tweets studied, 90.2% of all tweets (both bot and non-bot) came from accounts that were pro-Ukraine, with fewer than 7% of the accounts being classed as pro-Russian.


We all get flooded by this and some are claiming i'm the bot/vatnik etc

 

[Cap]

Ukranian MoD, I'm skeptical. Zero trust in Russia's Mod either

Independant evidence has like a dozen dead for proof, meanwhile claims of hundreds if not thousands, pretty obviously wartime propaganda
https://www.bbc.com/news/60981238

Trying to downplay these types of events really doesnt help

What happens?

Russia has been occupying a quarter of Ukraine for a couple of years now, POW not treated well is about the best they can spin

Theres literal videos on Russians executing POWs, evidence of torture its almost like you have put anything that is remotely negative to Russia under propaganda.

I think very few here have genuine concern for Ukranians(bar Mobbs). I'm on the harm reduction side though, more than I can say for most, would rather avoid a nuclear exchange also

My position here is that you all eat up the narrative without question and ignore reality, its unhealthy

https://michaelwest.com.au/the-secret-wars-anti-russian-bot-army-exposed-by-australian-researchers/
An anti-Russia propaganda campaign originating from a ‘bot army’ of fake automated Twitter accounts flooded the internet at the start of the war. The research shows of the more than 5 million tweets studied, 90.2% of all tweets (both bot and non-bot) came from accounts that were pro-Ukraine, with fewer than 7% of the accounts being classed as pro-Russian.


We all get flooded by this and some are claiming i'm the bot/vatnik etc

If course there was pro-Ukranian bots.

They have to counter whatever has its hold over the likes of you.

 

[Saint]

I didn't say he twiddled his thumbs, he was a mid level KGB officer at the fall of the soviet union. The way he got to the top is pretty self explanatory. I doubt another Russian leader would be much different, we've all seen Medvedev spouting insanity on twitter

Nah I'm blaming neoliberalist economists for the economic state a lot of the eastern block found/finds themselves in(Ukraine included). Russian foreign policy is mainly a response to the US, aka the global hegemon

So the bits of Europe performing the worst, economically, just happen to be all the ones which used to be under Russian influence and it's the fault of Neoliberal economists that these are the worst performing?

Maybe it's the fact that they were all stripped of assets, ethnically and educationally cleansed before becoming failed states under Russian control, and they're yet to recover?

Countries like Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Czechia, all doing very well compared to Belarus or Russia .

The only correlation between states being backwards is their proximity and level of influence of Russia. The more Russian influence a country has encountered, the worse living conditions will be.

 

[Jamolad]

The one thing I will give you credit for Barreness is you not trying to push the narrative that the initial attack was just a feint - if it were just a feint it would not have been a large number of VDV sacrificed at the airport.

It was a genuine attempt to take the capital and remove Ukrainian leadership, which failed due to poor planning, very poor logistics and over-extended supply lines, a mis-guided expectation that more Ukrainians in power would join the Russian plants in committing treason, and of course a massive miscalculation of how hard, how much, and just how the Ukrainian armed forces and civilians would resist. An expectation that the population would greet them with flowers and hugs, and they were instead met with Molotov cocktails.

Where I still see double-standards is your criticism for Ukraine for not just rolling over for sake of harm reduction, but then in all of your whataboutism criticising the US/West I've never seen you criticise Iraq, Iran, Afgahnistan, Palestine etc for not just rolling over for the sake of harm reduction.

What's up with that?

 

[swingdog]

The one thing I will give you credit for Barreness is you not trying to push the narrative that the initial attack was just a feint - if it were just a feint it would not have been a large number of VDV sacrificed at the airport.

It was a genuine attempt to take the capital and remove Ukrainian leadership, which failed due to poor planning, very poor logistics and over-extended supply lines, a mis-guided expectation that more Ukrainians in power would join the Russian plants in committing treason, and of course a massive miscalculation of how hard, how much, and just how the Ukrainian armed forces and civilians would resist. An expectation that the population would great them with flowers and hugs, and they were instead met with Molotov cocktails.

Where I still see double-standards is your criticism for Ukraine for not just rolling over for sake of harm reduction, but then in all of your whataboutism criticising the US/West I've never seen you criticise Iraq, Iran, Afgahnistan, Palestine etc for not just rolling over for the sake of harm reduction.

What's up with that?

I've assumed barreness is pro-Israel because, you know, might is right.

 

[Zidane98]

Peace deal was on the table mid 2022, shit it was only Crimea and independant republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, now Ukraine's position is significantly worse

Russia's position is much worse now than pre invasion.

Half a million dead. Black Sea fleet can't even stay in the Black Sea, has to retreat to Azov sea. Russia is isolated internationally. Imagine a pre war Russia going to North Korea for military supplies.....


Pre war Crimea was reasonably stable for the Russian occupiers. Lines were static, the Kerch bridge was reasonably secure.

Now not so, nothing is off limits to ATACMS and ever will be. Kerch bridge has been disabled multiple times and will be again.


Putin is having to pilfer the national wealth fund and national gold reserves just to continue his war. Literally needs a war just to prevent a total collapse of the Russian economy.

In every possible way Russia is worse off than pre invasion yet for some reason this is never mentioned by yourself.


I wonder why?

 

[Zidane98]

This was tried and rejected by the west
https://web.archive.org/web/2017082...bff-9174-8cae673790cd/?utm_term=.1f1c32b03bc7

This wasn't a serious attempt at joining. Russia would have to reform to become a fully fledged member of Europe like Poland did, Latvia did etc. And that simply isn't happening while you have USSR era dinosaurs in charge who dream of the "Great Russian empire".

There was a coup/revolution, whether you agree with them or not. A democratically elected leader was overthrown

There was no coup at all, this is an absolute lie and you know it.

The facts:

Yanukovych fled Ukraine, abandoning his position as President. The Rada agreed that a temporary president take over (Turchynov) with the same Rada parliament make up (minus Yanukovych) until elections took place (actual proper elections, not the nonsense they have in Russia).

At this time Poroshenko was elected president of Ukraine. Party of regions (Yanuthief's party) participated in this election and were soundly defeated.

To suggest a democratically elected leader was overthrown in Ukraine is an absolute lie. Why you repeat this lie is anyone's guess. Moreover, Putin complaining about it is hilarious as he has effectively been in charge for 25 years in Russia and changed the law so he continues until 2036 if he somehow avoids being assassinated.

It doesn't really matter what they want. ~20% of Ukraine is currently Russia so I guess not

And if they lose?

20% of Ukraine is not Russia, despite what your employers may lead you to believe.

Ok sure, just the largest arms aid program in history

Nowhere near, that would be lendlease in WW2. Equivalent to $801 billion in 2023. Don't you find it ironic that the US helped USSR fight off Nazis that they again have to help Ukraine fight off Nazis with yet another military aid program?

Also, much of what has been sent to Ukraine is obsolete US military equipment that would have been decommissioned anyway.

Are they dying? This doesn't make sense, apparently a NK sapper brigade(?) was sent, haven't seen any NK bodies show up yet

We'll see right

Who said they were dying? Just pointing out while you claim the US sending arms to Ukraine is really them using Ukraine to fight Russians you don't apply the same logic for the inverse of Iran/North Korea with their arms programs to Russia.

You know they control Crimea yeh? I don't think the lease matters anymore

Yes, they control it that well that the Black Sea fleet has been chased out to the Azov sea. No matter what way you play it Russia was better off without invading Ukraine and having access to Sevastopol. How are Crimean military bases going these days since the full scale invasion?

If peace was the goal they wouldn't have been messing with the former soviet states

How's life going for former Soviet states who are part of NATO / EU compared to the ones that aren't?

I'm sure you'll figure out one day why there are plenty of states not wanting to be a Russian client state while plenty who want to be part of Europe / NATO.

That's how it works

Yeh, don't disagree

From a moral point I agree, that's not how the world works though

Projection once again, you do stay on point though

Yet we pay the US 400+billion for subs we'll most likely never get and agree to take their nuclear waste(just down the road from me). Let alone thousands of marines in the top end and the largest spy base in the southern hemisphere. We are a vassal state of the US and yet still retain some sovereignty, you agree this is possible?

Australia has full control over its destiny, unlike Lukashenko who is Putin's bitch and does everything that he wants. Your attempt to suggest Australia's relation to the US is the same as Russia's to Belarus is laughable.

 

[wannabejack]

russian myths and lies.

Twelve myths about Russia's War in Ukraine exposed

A year ago Russia launched an unprovoked war of aggression against its peaceful neighbour Ukraine, showing the world the true face of the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. Today, Ukraine is still fighting, still resilient, and still determined to prevail over Russian aggression.

cyprus.representation.ec.europa.eu

Top 10 Lies of Russia’s Hybrid War on Ukraine

As Russian troops surrounded Ukraine’s capital Kyiv on February 24, 2022, and Russian warplanes were bombing the neighboring nation’s cities and towns, the Kremlin’s propaganda colossus was bombarding people at home and abroad with false and misleading claims about Ukraine.

www.voanews.com

https://shape.nato.int/news-archive/2023/video-russias-war-against-ukraine-the-kremlins-litany-of-lies

Oh, How They Lied. The Many Times Russia Denied Ukraine Invasion Plans

Lest we forget, the Kremlin and its surrogates for months denied plans to attack or take over Ukraine. Two weeks into Putin’s war, here’s some of what they said.

www.voanews.com

Disinformation About Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Debunking Seven Myths spread by Russia

The following article presents a selection of the myths and disinformation pushed by pro-Kremlin channels since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. From its illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and its ongoing military aggression against Ukraine, Russia has waged a sustained and...

www.eeas.europa.eu

 

[Zidane98]

russian myths and lies.

Twelve myths about Russia's War in Ukraine exposed

A year ago Russia launched an unprovoked war of aggression against its peaceful neighbour Ukraine, showing the world the true face of the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. Today, Ukraine is still fighting, still resilient, and still determined to prevail over Russian aggression.

cyprus.representation.ec.europa.eu

Top 10 Lies of Russia’s Hybrid War on Ukraine

As Russian troops surrounded Ukraine’s capital Kyiv on February 24, 2022, and Russian warplanes were bombing the neighboring nation’s cities and towns, the Kremlin’s propaganda colossus was bombarding people at home and abroad with false and misleading claims about Ukraine.

www.voanews.com

https://shape.nato.int/news-archive/2023/video-russias-war-against-ukraine-the-kremlins-litany-of-lies

Oh, How They Lied. The Many Times Russia Denied Ukraine Invasion Plans

Lest we forget, the Kremlin and its surrogates for months denied plans to attack or take over Ukraine. Two weeks into Putin’s war, here’s some of what they said.

www.voanews.com

Disinformation About Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Debunking Seven Myths spread by Russia

The following article presents a selection of the myths and disinformation pushed by pro-Kremlin channels since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. From its illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and its ongoing military aggression against Ukraine, Russia has waged a sustained and...

www.eeas.europa.eu

Interesting to see if barreness goes off script or keeps repeating these debunked narratives.

 

[CD Xbow]

here is but 1 example https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-putin-medals-bucha-b2060568.html


Honestly, your ignorance has to be deliberate at this stage.

No one here is blood thirsty, just aware what happens to Ukrainians if Putin wins

And lets be honest, you have 0 care for Ukraine, your position here is solely 'russia isn't thay bad' for whatever reason you can make at any given time as the atrocities mount up

It's a very odd position for him to take. There is a moral clarity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine who is in the right and in the wrong. Very similar to Hitler invading Europe in WWII. I guess there are apologists for the Nazi's, so why wouldn't there be Russian apologists? I suspect it's primarily anti-Americanism in Barroness case.

Interesting to see if barreness goes off script or keeps repeating these debunked narratives.

Perhaps if enough Rubles are on offer....

 

[Saint]

Barenness is right, the lease of Sevastapol doesn't matter any more because even though Russia now controls the land, it's now too unsafe to store ships in the Port because the Ukrainian drones will blow them up, so they've all retreated to the Circassian side of the Black Sea.

So Russia has conquered the land to protect the Port, but lost the ability to use the Port. Master tacticians!!

 

[Zidane98]

Barenness is right, the lease of Sevastapol doesn't matter any more because even though Russia now controls the land, it's now too unsafe to store ships in the Port because the Ukrainian drones will blow them up, so they've all retreated to the Circassian side of the Black Sea.

So Russia has conquered the land to protect the Port, but lost the ability to use the Port. Master tacticians!!

I bet when they lose they'll be demanding that the lease until 2042 is honored.

 

[Visions]

Peace deal was on the table mid 2022, shit it was only Crimea and independant republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, now Ukraine's position is significantly worse

Ha ha. Yes after taking those areas without firing a shot, your fellow vatniks were going to sit back and leave it at that……

 

[jatz14]

Peace deal was on the table mid 2022, shit it was only Crimea and independant republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, now Ukraine's position is significantly worse

Stop it. It's pointless.

Everybody here understands that your problem with the ongoing violence isn't the violence, it's the failure of that violence to achieve Russian objectives.

Like, ever time someone says, Im not racist, but. It's understood, nothing before the but means anything.

Ukraine did not negotiate to get peace 2 years ago, because when negotiating a deal, the future under that deal is more important than it's immediate impact, because 'the future' is a lot longer than 'now'.

Refusing to acknowledge that is your 'but'.

I want peace, 'but'.



On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[barreness]

So the bits of Europe performing the worst, economically, just happen to be all the ones which used to be under Russian influence and it's the fault of Neoliberal economists that these are the worst performing?

Maybe it's the fact that they were all stripped of assets, ethnically and educationally cleansed before becoming failed states under Russian control, and they're yet to recover?

Countries like Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Czechia, all doing very well compared to Belarus or Russia .

The only correlation between states being backwards is their proximity and level of influence of Russia. The more Russian influence a country has encountered, the worse living conditions will be.

They all did shit after the fall of European communism, some have recovered better than others, the reasons are many and varied

Bolded is simplistic.

Do you see Ukraine coming out of this(whatever the war outcome) as being positive?

 

[Zidane98]

Lol.

 

[barreness]

The one thing I will give you credit for Barreness is you not trying to push the narrative that the initial attack was just a feint - if it were just a feint it would not have been a large number of VDV sacrificed at the airport.

It was a genuine attempt to take the capital and remove Ukrainian leadership, which failed due to poor planning, very poor logistics and over-extended supply lines, a mis-guided expectation that more Ukrainians in power would join the Russian plants in committing treason, and of course a massive miscalculation of how hard, how much, and just how the Ukrainian armed forces and civilians would resist. An expectation that the population would greet them with flowers and hugs, and they were instead met with Molotov cocktails.

yep

Where I still see double-standards is your criticism for Ukraine for not just rolling over for sake of harm reduction, but then in all of your whataboutism criticising the US/West I've never seen you criticise Iraq, Iran, Afgahnistan, Palestine etc for not just rolling over for the sake of harm reduction.

What's up with that?

Iraq, well they were 'west partners' in their fight against Iran. The first gulf war they were flogged back to their borders and in the second they did roll over, Saddam was found in a hole all alone, the Iraqi army folded in a month or two

Iran, well they got couped and then counter couped, no invasion. Very difficult place to actually invade and they're far more developed and capable than US rhetoric would have some believe.

Afghanistan, "you have the watches but we have the time", once again very difficult terrain(as found by the USSR) and you can wait them out in the mountains. Ukraine doesn't really have this advantage

Palestine, that war ended 75 years ago(with a roll over) and they've been occupied territories since with no intention to integrate them because it's an ethno state, as is proven in recent events

Bare in mind I'm not advocating for a roll over, Ukraine has proven themselves more than capable of avoiding that. A negotiation is the way to end the war, this will no doubt require some ceding of territory given the battlefield situation

It would be great if all sovereignty was respected but that's never been the situation, the 'rules based order' has always been rubbish given the US's action when they were the global hegemon(yeh yeh, US whataboutism). Unfortunately you only control what you can defend. Why we're rooted as a species and I hate it but best not pretend otherwise