Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[barreness]

Russia's position is much worse now than pre invasion.

Half a million dead. Black Sea fleet can't even stay in the Black Sea, has to retreat to Azov sea. Russia is isolated internationally. Imagine a pre war Russia going to North Korea for military supplies.....


Pre war Crimea was reasonably stable for the Russian occupiers. Lines were static, the Kerch bridge was reasonably secure.

Now not so, nothing is off limits to ATACMS and ever will be. Kerch bridge has been disabled multiple times and will be again.

Yeh righto mate, you can see the rhetoric changing in the press, a peace deal isn't far away

Putin is having to pilfer the national wealth fund and national gold reserves just to continue his war. Literally needs a war just to prevent a total collapse of the Russian economy.

What are wealth funds and gold reserves for?

In every possible way Russia is worse off than pre invasion yet for some reason this is never mentioned by yourself.


I wonder why?

Yet they hold Crimea and south eastern Ukraine, interesting

 

[barreness]

This wasn't a serious attempt at joining. Russia would have to reform to become a fully fledged member of Europe like Poland did, Latvia did etc. And that simply isn't happening while you have USSR era dinosaurs in charge who dream of the "Great Russian empire".

They weren't serious, gotcha. Turns out they were serious about Ukraine, what do you know

There was no coup at all, this is an absolute lie and you know it.

The facts:

Yanukovych fled Ukraine, abandoning his position as President. The Rada agreed that a temporary president take over (Turchynov) with the same Rada parliament make up (minus Yanukovych) until elections took place (actual proper elections, not the nonsense they have in Russia).

At this time Poroshenko was elected president of Ukraine. Party of regions (Yanuthief's party) participated in this election and were soundly defeated.

Was a leader overthrown? it's a coup/revolution. I'm not anti revolution(as always it's if you agree with it or not), I'm sure the Ukrainian people were sick of his shit(particularly western Ukraine), if they could see the long term outcome they might have second thoughts

To suggest a democratically elected leader was overthrown in Ukraine is an absolute lie. Why you repeat this lie is anyone's guess. Moreover, Putin complaining about it is hilarious as he has effectively been in charge for 25 years in Russia and changed the law so he continues until 2036 if he somehow avoids being assassinated.

Was he elected, seems so
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko signed a decree endorsing a plan of events related to Yanukovych's inauguration on 20 February 2010.[78] Yushchenko also congratulated and wished Yanukovych "to defend Ukrainian interests and democratic traditions" at the presidential post.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych#Presidency_(2010–2014)

He did flee after the revolution, hence he was overthrown. Not sure why you're biting on this, in itself its not a terrible action

20% of Ukraine is not Russia, despite what your employers may lead you to believe.

They occupy it

Nowhere near, that would be lendlease in WW2. Equivalent to $801 billion in 2023. Don't you find it ironic that the US helped USSR fight off Nazis that they again have to help Ukraine fight off Nazis with yet another military aid program?

Lol man, you and I know that figure includes the UK and USSR, I said to one country

I find it ironic that the US helped fund the counter invasion of nazi germany and then spent the next 40 years fighting a proxy war against their allies in that fight. Almost like one side was ruled by capital

Also, much of what has been sent to Ukraine is obsolete US military equipment that would have been decommissioned anyway.

For sure, shame they can't produce what they need like artillery shells

Who said they were dying? Just pointing out while you claim the US sending arms to Ukraine is really them using Ukraine to fight Russians you don't apply the same logic for the inverse of Iran/North Korea with their arms programs to Russia.

Are Iranian's/NK's dying? can't really reverse this. Russians are dying for Russian interests, Ukrainians are dying for US interests

Yes, they control it that well that the Black Sea fleet has been chased out to the Azov sea. No matter what way you play it Russia was better off without invading Ukraine and having access to Sevastopol. How are Crimean military bases going these days since the full scale invasion?

You presume this war will never end? also the montreux protocols(Istanbul controls what military ships go into the black sea)

How's life going for former Soviet states who are part of NATO / EU compared to the ones that aren't?

Depends which propaganda you read, I think you hate Hungary now though so were do they sit?

I'm sure you'll figure out one day why there are plenty of states not wanting to be a Russian client state while plenty who want to be part of Europe / NATO.

I'm glad you've come around to realpolitok, as a smaller nation you have to accept the whims of your bigger neighbours. A miscalculation by Ukraine

Australia has full control over its destiny, unlike Lukashenko who is Putin's bitch and does everything that he wants. Your attempt to suggest Australia's relation to the US is the same as Russia's to Belarus is laughable.

Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq? Did we have a national interest in those wars?

 

[barreness]

Barenness is right, the lease of Sevastapol doesn't matter any more because even though Russia now controls the land, it's now too unsafe to store ships in the Port because the Ukrainian drones will blow them up, so they've all retreated to the Circassian side of the Black Sea.

So Russia has conquered the land to protect the Port, but lost the ability to use the Port. Master tacticians!!

For some reason you think relations won't be normalised after some period

 

[barreness]

russian myths and lies.

Twelve myths about Russia's War in Ukraine exposed

A year ago Russia launched an unprovoked war of aggression against its peaceful neighbour Ukraine, showing the world the true face of the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. Today, Ukraine is still fighting, still resilient, and still determined to prevail over Russian aggression.

cyprus.representation.ec.europa.eu

Top 10 Lies of Russia’s Hybrid War on Ukraine

As Russian troops surrounded Ukraine’s capital Kyiv on February 24, 2022, and Russian warplanes were bombing the neighboring nation’s cities and towns, the Kremlin’s propaganda colossus was bombarding people at home and abroad with false and misleading claims about Ukraine.

www.voanews.com

https://shape.nato.int/news-archive/2023/video-russias-war-against-ukraine-the-kremlins-litany-of-lies

Oh, How They Lied. The Many Times Russia Denied Ukraine Invasion Plans

Lest we forget, the Kremlin and its surrogates for months denied plans to attack or take over Ukraine. Two weeks into Putin’s war, here’s some of what they said.

www.voanews.com

Disinformation About Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Debunking Seven Myths spread by Russia

The following article presents a selection of the myths and disinformation pushed by pro-Kremlin channels since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. From its illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and its ongoing military aggression against Ukraine, Russia has waged a sustained and...

www.eeas.europa.eu

You think Ukraine and their western backers don't lie?

Nord stream anyone?

 

[barreness]

Ha ha. Yes after taking those areas without firing a shot, your fellow vatniks were going to sit back and leave it at that……

This was after Ukraine had turned backed Russian offensives around Kyiv and Kherson(and a few other places I can't remember), Russian air power had proved ineffective and their tanks had been slapped, It was no doubt the time of Ukraine's greatest battlefield and therefore negotiation position

 

[Mobbs]

Russians are dying for Russian interests, Ukrainians are dying for US interests

Just putting a pin in this so I can look at it every time I'm tempted to reply to some abominable shit you spout in the future and be reminded to not waste my time.

 

[Chief]

Might do a clean up to move the background stuff to the background thread.

Some of it overlaps, but I think it is not too hard to keep things roughly in their own threads. Mods can move stuff if it swamps the other thread, but best to continue the history and broader politics here so we can see mostly events, maps, tech, and strategy and tactics stuff in the other thread.

 

[Cap]

Weird phase right now.
Russia is moving forward, but not at great pace.
Rumours of peace talks in the near future.
But no signs of how that would actually happen given both sides are still mobilising and sending huge amounts of material to the front.

from what I've heard from the various commentators we have Russia pushing in the hope Trump wins and they keep what they steal and Ukraine not attacking because if the event of a Trump win they are unsure of future supply.

 

[1990crow]

from what I've heard from the various commentators we have Russia pushing in the hope Trump wins and they keep what they steal and Ukraine not attacking because if the event of a Trump win they are unsure of future supply.

First makes sense but Ukraine not pushing doesn't make a lot of sense.
If they think Trump will pull supply, they'll lose the war in the long run.
If they push now with what they have, and Trump doesn't win maybe they either cause a Draw or push Russia back.

 

[Cap]

First makes sense but Ukraine not pushing doesn't make a lot of sense.
If they think Trump will pull supply, they'll lose the war in the long run.
If they push now with what they have, and Trump doesn't win maybe they either cause a Draw or push Russia back.

They are waiting for things like the f16s to be in place as well.

But Trumps vision to end the war is basically cut Ukraine funding if they don't agree to a ceasefire.

There is no upside for Ukraine under Trump, conservativing what they have , until they can understand what their supply is going to look like is probably more important.

But I could be wrong, that's just my take.

 

[barreness]

First makes sense but Ukraine not pushing doesn't make a lot of sense.
If they think Trump will pull supply, they'll lose the war in the long run.
If they push now with what they have, and Trump doesn't win maybe they either cause a Draw or push Russia back.

It's because Ukraine is hard on the back foot, losing if you will. The increasing talks of negotiations are just manufacturing consent for when they cede territory and wrap this thing up at the end of the year, I'm sure western propaganda will call this a win/draw

Trump doesn't really matter, if he gets in it will be early 2025 when he takes the reins. I think people forget US foreign policy hasn't really changed under the Biden admin. Trump a little more unpredictable, hence why Putin prefers Biden(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68302071), but it's difficult to see much changing if the war is still going by then. Weapon deliveries have been taking 6-12 months because they have to be manufactured and NATO stockpiles are bare(excluding the stuff they have to keep for their own defence)

F16's, half the US's patriots, or whatever Zelensky is asking for won't change front-line conditions much. If they push now they'll be slaughtered, so thankfully they won't

 

[Present Not Past]

Putin lost the War in Ukraine two years ago.
He just won't admit it.

 

[Seeds]

It's because Ukraine is hard on the back foot, losing if you will. The increasing talks of negotiations are just manufacturing consent for when they cede territory and wrap this thing up at the end of the year, I'm sure western propaganda will call this a win/draw

Trump doesn't really matter, if he gets in it will be early 2025 when he takes the reins. I think people forget US foreign policy hasn't really changed under the Biden admin. Trump a little more unpredictable, hence why Putin prefers Biden(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68302071), but it's difficult to see much changing if the war is still going by then. Weapon deliveries have been taking 6-12 months because they have to be manufactured and NATO stockpiles are bare(excluding the stuff they have to keep for their own defence)

F16's, half the US's patriots, or whatever Zelensky is asking for won't change front-line conditions much. If they push now they'll be slaughtered, so thankfully they won't

Ah you serious? The democrats want to give money and weopans to ukraine while trump doesnt. Hell trump doesnt even want to fund nato.

 

[Saint]

For some reason you think relations won't be normalised after some period

They won't go back to the way they were for 20+ years. Have relations between Poland and Russia normalised? How long have Vietnam hated the Chinese for? Or between Cuba and the US?

FOr some reason, it seems you think that as soon as a ceasefire is reached that everyone will just pretend Russia can be trusted again near-immediately.

 

[barreness]

Ah you serious? The democrats want to give money and weopans to ukraine while trump doesnt. Hell trump doesnt even want to fund nato.

Perhaps, we'll see, atm Trump has simply said he'd stop the war. I'm not sure anyone has any idea what this would entail, Trump included

He said he didn't want to fund NATO and then spent four years funding NATO. The cited reason was along the lines of not hitting their % of GDP, most of NATO is heading to those %'s, albeit slowly and not fast enough to sway the war Ukraine's way

 

[barreness]

They won't go back to the way they were for 20+ years. Have relations between Poland and Russia normalised? How long have Vietnam hated the Chinese for? Or between Cuba and the US?

Poland? been major trade partners since the end of the USSR, obviously also a SSR
Vietnam and China? It took ten years and this was mainly due to the sino-soviet split and subsequent collapse of the USSR, grown massively almost every year since 1991
Cuba? this is the silly one, was normalized under Obama finally after decades of the US being salty. Trump rolled that back and it's continued under Biden. The thing is Cuba doesn't really have anything the US wants

FOr some reason, it seems you think that as soon as a ceasefire is reached that everyone will just pretend Russia can be trusted again near-immediately.

They will if they want Russian resources, and they most certainly do. Germany alone has suffered massive manufacturing loses and needs that cheap gas.

Might take a couple of years but not 20+

But you were talking about Crimea, a lot of ag exports go through the black sea and ends up in africa, Egypt isn't turning down grain because of a European war. As i've pointed out many times Turkey controls the military ships in and out of the Black sea, unless they start building them in Crimea then it's a moot point

 

[Saint]

Poland? been major trade partners since the end of the USSR, obviously also a SSR
Vietnam and China? It took ten years and this was mainly due to the sino-soviet split and subsequent collapse of the USSR, grown massively almost every year since 1991
Cuba? this is the silly one, was normalized under Obama finally after decades of the US being salty. Trump rolled that back and it's continued under Biden. The thing is Cuba doesn't really have anything the US wants

They will if they want Russian resources, and they most certainly do. Germany alone has suffered massive manufacturing loses and needs that cheap gas.

Might take a couple of years but not 20+

But you were talking about Crimea, a lot of ag exports go through the black sea and ends up in africa, Egypt isn't turning down grain because of a European war. As i've pointed out many times Turkey controls the military ships in and out of the Black sea, unless they start building them in Crimea then it's a moot point

Poland have a policy of complete exclusion of Russian Gas to regain their independence. It's only because of Russia' foreign policy. Poland have been calling on sanctions on Russia since 2008 and asking for more NATO assets to be placed in Poland (they want more US bases). Only 2% of Poles have a favourable opinion of Russia, and those are probably ex-Russians.

US companies still cannot do business in Cuba, or with Cuba. Americans can't go there without a licence (though it can be got around).

The EU just passed a law preventing on-shipment of Russian LNG supplies which mostly impacts Germany. It also prevents funding of Russian gas projects which will now have to be sourced from Asia, putting Russia even more in China's pocket.

Germany, Poland and everyone else in the EU is not going to go back to importing the levels of Gas they did before the war. They're all implementing policies of reduction which will not be lifted even if sanctions are lifted and a ceasefire or peace achieved.

Russia will be Europe's poor cousin for another couple of decades at least.

It takes decades to develop a trust for economic co-operation. Russia have evaporated theirs. Everyone knows not to be reliant on Russian resources because sanctions could go back on at any moment, the next time Russia invades somebody.

 

[CD Xbow]

I asked one of those clever AI's, MS Copilot. to tell me how the UK historian, the late Harold Perkins would view events is Russia. I asked a 2 part question.

How do you think the historian harold perkin would analyse the current state of russia?
What would be think about the russian invasion of ukraine?

Harold Perkin, a distinguished social historian, often analyzed historical events through the lens of social structures and the rise and fall of empires1. Given his perspective, he might view the current state of Russia and the invasion of Ukraine as part of a broader historical pattern of imperial ambitions and the struggle for power.

Perkin might argue that Russia’s actions are driven by a combination of historical grievances, a desire to reassert its influence, and the internal dynamics of its political elite. He could see the invasion of Ukraine as an attempt by Russia to reclaim its perceived lost status and counter Western influence in the region.

Perkin might also highlight the social and economic impacts of the conflict on both Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing how the war exacerbates existing inequalities and disrupts social structures. He could draw parallels to past empires that overextended themselves, leading to internal instability and eventual decline.

Overall, Perkin would likely view the situation as a complex interplay of historical forces, social dynamics, and geopolitical ambitions, reflecting his broader understanding of the rise and fall of societies.

It's a pretty good answer. The LLM has understood my question correctly. Old people like me still get blown away by accurate NLQ. The content is an accurate account of his views, if superficial, and a pretty good application to the context. Mind you I'm no historian but I can't help feel a bit of a revolution happening. Has anyone else noticed?

There are of course the occasional hiccoughs in revolutions. When I asked my Harold Perkins imitating AI for it's analysis of the the rise of Donald Trump, I got this message

Copilot
Looks like I can’t respond to this topic.
It might be time to move onto a new topic.
Let's start over.

Sinister censorship? Not malicious, likely a block preventing any AI generated material on Trump, I could imagine there has been a lot of use of AI to generate Trump content and the reason to precent it. Anyone know better?

 

[CD Xbow]

Feel like I'm in a bit of a "I can't do that Dave" moment. It's word combo's. I could get it to tell me about Trumps books, history but nothing to do the election. This talks about banned words, but it seems it's certain combinations.

Banned: The 1,170 words you can't use with GitHub Copilot

Hash cracking reveals verboten slurs, terms like 'liberals, 'Palestine,' and 'socialist' ... and Quake's famous Fast InvSqrt

www.theregister.com

Sorry, no more OT stuff.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I asked one of those clever AI's, MS Copilot. to tell me how the UK historian, the late Harold Perkins would view events is Russia. I asked a 2 part question.

How do you think the historian harold perkin would analyse the current state of russia?
What would be think about the russian invasion of ukraine?

Harold Perkin, a distinguished social historian, often analyzed historical events through the lens of social structures and the rise and fall of empires1. Given his perspective, he might view the current state of Russia and the invasion of Ukraine as part of a broader historical pattern of imperial ambitions and the struggle for power.

Perkin might argue that Russia’s actions are driven by a combination of historical grievances, a desire to reassert its influence, and the internal dynamics of its political elite. He could see the invasion of Ukraine as an attempt by Russia to reclaim its perceived lost status and counter Western influence in the region.

Perkin might also highlight the social and economic impacts of the conflict on both Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing how the war exacerbates existing inequalities and disrupts social structures. He could draw parallels to past empires that overextended themselves, leading to internal instability and eventual decline.

Overall, Perkin would likely view the situation as a complex interplay of historical forces, social dynamics, and geopolitical ambitions, reflecting his broader understanding of the rise and fall of societies.

It's a pretty good answer. The LLM has understood my question correctly. Old people like me still get blown away by accurate NLQ. The content is an accurate account of his views, if superficial, and a pretty good application to the context. Mind you I'm no historian but I can't help feel a bit of a revolution happening. Has anyone else noticed?

There are of course the occasional hiccoughs in revolutions. When I asked my Harold Perkins imitating AI for it's analysis of the the rise of Donald Trump, I got this message

Copilot
Looks like I can’t respond to this topic.
It might be time to move onto a new topic.
Let's start over.

Sinister censorship? Not malicious, likely a block preventing any AI generated material on Trump, I could imagine there has been a lot of use of AI to generate Trump content and the reason to precent it. Anyone know better?

I'd expect they don't want to be linked to false social media crap produced by bots.

 

[barreness]

Poland have a policy of complete exclusion of Russian Gas to regain their independence. It's only because of Russia' foreign policy. Poland have been calling on sanctions on Russia since 2008 and asking for more NATO assets to be placed in Poland (they want more US bases). Only 2% of Poles have a favourable opinion of Russia, and those are probably ex-Russians.

So the stated policy was put in late 2022, and it was a slow wean because they can't afford to cut it immediately without the sea routes covering it. I reckon they will go right back to taking the oil and gas a few years after the war ends, it's by far the cheapest

US companies still cannot do business in Cuba, or with Cuba. Americans can't go there without a licence (though it can be got around).

Yeh the Cuba situation is silly as I stated, US still salty about their puppet being kicked. They were never really at war unless we are counting bay of pigs. Obama policy was a good start but Bided needs the Florida Cubans so here we are, still doing collective punishment and making it near impossible for any other country to trade with Cuba

The EU just passed a law preventing on-shipment of Russian LNG supplies which mostly impacts Germany. It also prevents funding of Russian gas projects which will now have to be sourced from Asia, putting Russia even more in China's pocket.

Germany's manufacturing sector has been wrecked, I don't understand how this is a reason relations won't normalise after a period. It's in both parties bests interests

Germany, Poland and everyone else in the EU is not going to go back to importing the levels of Gas they did before the war. They're all implementing policies of reduction which will not be lifted even if sanctions are lifted and a ceasefire or peace achieved.

Maybe, we'll see. Importing from the US/gulf states is far more expensive, moral stances don't last long when cost is considered

Russia will be Europe's poor cousin for another couple of decades at least.

Yeh probably, they've pretty much always been western Europe's poorer cousin. Still large, powerful, and resource rich

It takes decades to develop a trust for economic co-operation. Russia have evaporated theirs. Everyone knows not to be reliant on Russian resources because sanctions could go back on at any moment, the next time Russia invades somebody.

Or they could just not sanction them. Many european countries have gone against their own self interests in sanctioning Russia and have been more than willing to do workarounds and such, it's not like they immediately stopped(just kinda said they'd wean off)

Nah, not decades. It's a neoliberal world, I predict they'll go right back to trading after a few years post peace deal. Russia can wait with India and China remaining customers

 

[jatz14]

It's because Ukraine is hard on the back foot, losing if you will. The increasing talks of negotiations are just manufacturing consent for when they cede territory and wrap this thing up at the end of the year, I'm sure western propaganda will call this a win/draw

Trump doesn't really matter, if he gets in it will be early 2025 when he takes the reins. I think people forget US foreign policy hasn't really changed under the Biden admin. Trump a little more unpredictable, hence why Putin prefers Biden(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68302071), but it's difficult to see much changing if the war is still going by then. Weapon deliveries have been taking 6-12 months because they have to be manufactured and NATO stockpiles are bare(excluding the stuff they have to keep for their own defence)

F16's, half the US's patriots, or whatever Zelensky is asking for won't change front-line conditions much. If they push now they'll be slaughtered, so thankfully they won't

Russia is losing, it's been losing for 2 years. The fighting now is about how badly it loses, like the last year of WW1, the last year or so of WW2, the fighting wasn't about who won, it was about the scale of the loss.

Your aware that there were still German armies in France when Germany sued for peace? Them holding onto part of France wasn't them winning.

Good commentators, from the very start of this war, were staying, Ukraine's route to victory was to just not get over run.

If they didn't get over run, they won. Its that simple, and it's still true, it's why Russia keeps up its meatwave attacks, they have to overwhelm Ukraine, or lose.

Ukraine talking up peace deals is smart, if your trying to drive a rat from your house, you want to give it a clear route out.

Remember, Russian armoured fighting vehicle production is matching losses but tank production isn't. But that production is dependant on resurrecting old Soviet era equipment, and satellite surveillance of their storage facilities says they run out of the intact, easier to repair vehicles early next year, and they run out of everything in 2026.

They need to have negotiated a peace deal by then, or they are up shit creek.

How much more of NK stockpiles will Kim give them do you think, how much will Putin have to give up to get it?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

I'm firmly of the belief that, if Putin could see a way out of this war that wasn't personally catastrophic for him, it would already be over.

But he can't.

Russia isn't fighting because it's winning, it's fighting because it's stuck.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[barreness]

Russia is losing, it's been losing for 2 years. The fighting now is about how badly it loses, like the last year of WW1, the last year or so of WW2, the fighting wasn't about who won, it was about the scale of the loss.

Your aware that there were still German armies in France when Germany sued for peace? Them holding onto part of France wasn't them winning.

ummmmmmmm

Good commentators, from the very start of this war, were staying, Ukraine's route to victory was to just not get over run.

Ok so what I said, it'll be spun into a win

If they didn't get over run, they won. Its that simple, and it's still true, it's why Russia keeps up its meatwave attacks, they have to overwhelm Ukraine, or lose.

Winning is losing 1/4 of your territory, indebting yourself for generations, having your most productive people flee or die on the front. Got ya

Ukraine talking up peace deals is smart, if your trying to drive a rat from your house, you want to give it a clear route out.

At least you can admit they are talking up a peace deal, baby steps

Remember, Russian armoured fighting vehicle production is matching losses but tank production isn't. But that production is dependant on resurrecting old Soviet era equipment, and satellite surveillance of their storage facilities says they run out of the intact, easier to repair vehicles early next year, and they run out of everything in 2026.

Russia has been said to be running out of everything for the last two years, yet the advance continues(slowly)

They need to have negotiated a peace deal by then, or they are up shit creek.

How much more of NK stockpiles will Kim give them do you think, how much will Putin have to give up to get it?

You understand that Ukraine stockpiles are empty and have been for a while, NATO stockpiles are also gone(at least what they are willing to give)