Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[1990crow]

Ok. This seems quite an escalation. Anyone able to verify?
Ukraine doesn't have reserves to hold the lines as they are without a major front opening.

 

[IlovethePies]

Imagine a world where NATO, EU & USA pulls all support from Ukraine and Ukraine goes the nuclear proliferation route? Don't think nuclear armageddon would be limited between Russia and Ukraine should shite goes down.

Don't say Ukraine doesn't have this capability, they sure do have the raw materials necessary.

The only possible way that Ukraine will go down the nuclear proliferation route is if the US decides to give Zelensky & co nuclear weapons (a possibility that they are actively discussing).

If this were to happen, this would effectively be a trigger point for Russia to pre-emptively carry out a nuclear strike, because the very action of giving nuclear weapons to Zelensky and the fascist elements in his government would be a declaration of nuclear war against Russia.

Putin might just decide on using a "small" tactical nuclear weapon to prove his adherence to red lines.

What then happens, as you say, is totally incalculable, and would not be limited to Ukraine and Russia.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

So how do you explain the growing numbers of Ukrainian soldiers abandoning their positions and refusing to fight?

How do you explain the recruitment crisis in Ukraine, and the demands by its US masters to lower the conscription age?

If you believe that the US does anything at all in the name of "democracy" or "freedom", then you are living in a parallel universe.

What do you think should’ve happened when Putin was marching on Kiev in the aim of taking control of the country?
Do you think America should’ve stood back and let that happen?
Do you believe Putin would negotiate in good faith?
What do you think Putin wants?

 

[CD Xbow]

Ok. This seems quite an escalation. Anyone able to verify?
Ukraine doesn't have reserves to hold the lines as they are without a major front opening.

The warzone has a recent article describing the build up of Russian forces near the Dnipro allegedly with 300 boats. Given how badly the Russians have performed with other river crossings, I'd be looking on this as an opportunity to dish out more hurt if I were Ukraine. They quote a Ukraine spokesman suggesting this is to draw Ukrainian troops from other regions. We will have to wait and see.

Russia Massing For Possible Cross-River Offensive In South Ukraine

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia is increasing attacks across Dnipro River to draw Ukraine's troops away from other areas of the front.

www.twz.com

 

[IlovethePies]

What do you think should’ve happened when Putin was marching on Kiev in the aim of taking control of the country?
Do you think America should’ve stood back and let that happen?
Do you believe Putin would negotiate in good faith?
What do you think Putin wants?

I dont care what either Putin or Washington wants

The issue for me is what is in the interests of the Ukrainian and Russian working classes.

America only backs Ukraine because Ukraine is providing cannon fodder for its geostrategic aim: to overthrow Putin and dismember Russia.

Putin's only aim is to use Russian youth as cannon fodder to stop the US from dismembering Russia.

But what the youth and workers in Ukraine and Russia need is a political party which unites them against both the Ukrainian government and the Russian government.

 

[Zidane98]

30 year anniversary of Budapest agreement



US pressured Ukraine to hand over its cruise missiles, nukes, bombers to Russia. Imagine someone being stupid enough to claim that the US is looking at providing nukes to Ukraine today. 100% bullshit claim.

In exchange US is obliged to defend Ukraine as is France, UK & China. If Ukraine arms itself with nukes, withdraws from NPT it will be on its own accord without help. Ukraine has everything in place to get a nuclear weapons program up & running.

Let's hope Nazi Russia is defeated or withdraws before it gets to that point.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I dont care what either Putin or Washington wants

The issue for me is what is in the interests of the Ukrainian and Russian working classes.

America only backs Ukraine because Ukraine is providing cannon fodder for its geostrategic aim: to overthrow Putin and dismember Russia.

Putin's only aim is to use Russian youth as cannon fodder to stop the US from dismembering Russia.

But what the youth and workers in Ukraine and Russia need is a political party which unites them against both the Ukrainian government and the Russian government.

Can you not understand that Ukraine do not have a choice in Putin wanting to take over their country?
I guess if you don’t understand Putin’s imperialistic ambitions then it’s easier to understand why you might hold your opinions.

 

[Visions]

 

[IlovethePies]

Can you not understand that Ukraine do not have a choice in Putin wanting to take over their country?
I guess if you don’t understand Putin’s imperialistic ambitions then it’s easier to understand why you might hold your opinions.

Russia is not an imperialist country.

The imperialists are the US and the major NATO powers.

The Putin regime wants to strike a deal with US and NATO imperialism.
Putin is saying: let us (the Russian oligarchs) keep control of the assets (raw materials, critical minerals) here in Russia, and we will let you live in peace. Just stop this war and give us a deal.

US and NATO imperialism are saying: no, we want all those raw materials and critical materials for ourselves. If you stand in the way, we are going to annihilate you and your government. We will keep arming our Ukrainian puppet regime until we get rid of you.

 

[Zidane98]

Russia is not an imperialist country.

The imperialists are the US and the major NATO powers.

The Putin regime wants to strike a deal with US and NATO imperialism.
Putin is saying: let us (the Russian oligarchs) keep control of the assets (raw materials, critical minerals) here in Russia, and we will let you live in peace. Just stop this war and give us a deal.

US and NATO imperialism are saying: no, we want all those raw materials and critical materials for ourselves. If you stand in the way, we are going to annihilate you and your government. We will keep arming our Ukrainian puppet regime until we get rid of you.

Saying Russia isn't an imperialistic country is bit like saying Kim Jong is a human rights advocate.

Also factually incorrect about resources. Ukraine has very little of what the US needs / wants and pretty much everything it does have the US/Canada/Australia has much more of it available and easier to get at too.

 

[Bloods86]

Russia is not an imperialist country.

The imperialists are the US and the major NATO powers.

The Putin regime wants to strike a deal with US and NATO imperialism.
Putin is saying: let us (the Russian oligarchs) keep control of the assets (raw materials, critical minerals) here in Russia, and we will let you live in peace. Just stop this war and give us a deal.

US and NATO imperialism are saying: no, we want all those raw materials and critical materials for ourselves. If you stand in the way, we are going to annihilate you and your government. We will keep arming our Ukrainian puppet regime until we get rid of you.

And you claim you're not just repeating Kremlin talking points.

 

[Visions]

Ok. This seems quite an escalation. Anyone able to verify?
Ukraine doesn't have reserves to hold the lines as they are without a major front opening.

Unless those soldiers are plastic figurines, it is bullshit for many reasons:

• Macgregor is a Russian shill
• Every month since the start of the war, Macgregor has predicted that Ukraine wont last another month
• No one including Russian military bloggers are making any mention of this or running with it
• Under which bed has Russia suddenly found an extra 180,000 soldiers for an attack when they had to import North Koreans to do their bidding (which Macgregor himself says is BS)
• In which world has Russia found an extra 180,000 new uniforms for troops, let alone weapons
• The responses to the tweet tell you enough. My favourites is "What are you talking about, They are surviving from drinking dirty puddles and eating grass you little kremlin gremlin puppet haha" and "Yes, Colonel Douglas Macgregor; I also took a Shower this Morning and fitted my Body with a new Everyday Uniform. Now I will set out to unleash a Battle, a War, because after all, I now smell wonderful & wear new Underpants."

 

[CD Xbow]

Saying Russia isn't an imperialistic country is bit like saying Kim Jong is a human rights advocate.

Also factually incorrect about resources. Ukraine has very little of what the US needs / wants and pretty much everything it does have the US/Canada/Australia has much more of it available and easier to get at too.

Only the West does imperialism. No other country, certainly not beautiful, kind, loving mother Russia, who only wants peace, harmony and tranquility.

 

[Jello_B]

Zelenskyy offering to cede land in exchange for NATO membership. Don’t think that will roll.

 

[Mobbs]

Zelenskyy offering to cede land in exchange for NATO membership. Don’t think that will roll.

I think it's more like an ultimatum to those who might demand land is ceded. I opine a paraphrasing such as "if there was a NATO membership guarantee, perhaps we could talk about it."

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mobbs]

Hold Kursk salient until Trump is in - has turned out to be untrue.

"Don't mention Oreshnik" at the press briefing - likely scripted.

Serbia is considering Russia-style foreign agent law.

Romania in danger of losing governance to pro-Russian expansion.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

The only possible way that Ukraine will go down the nuclear proliferation route is if the US decides to give Zelensky & co nuclear weapons (a possibility that they are actively discussing).

As stated before, Ukraine has the raw materials and can obtain the technical expertise to build their own nuclear weapons. If all support stops from the western allies, then they will have no option but to build a nuclear deterrence to prevent further Russian invasion.

If North Korea can build nuclear weapons, then Ukraine can too.

Russia only respects strength. If Ukraine can threaten Russia's existence, then Russia will probably leave them alone.

 

[Mobbs]

In Tbilisi, security forces responding to protests have their own internal issues:

Can't link, sorry. Source is shown in text ar the bottom.

Former Chief Prosecutor of Georgia and ex-MP Murtaz Zodelava, citing his sources, stated that there are serious problems in the ranks of the security forces. On his Facebook page, he wrote :

“Everything that happened today happened because:
• The day before yesterday, the water cannon operator teams went home (that's why they haven't been able to use this equipment effectively for the last two days, you all noticed that).
• Yesterday the head of the dispersal department resigned .
• This morning, the chief instructor of the specialists, who provides psychological training, was brutally beaten by his subordinates and was placed in a special unit of the Gudushauri clinic.
What does all this mean? Bidzina's reign is over, we must not stop."

Later, on the Formula TV channel, Murtaz Zodelava revealed some details. He did not name his sources so as not to endanger them.

According to the former prosecutor of Georgia, after the water cannon operators refused to work, the security forces faced a problem, since not everyone can operate such special equipment (the departed employees underwent months of training). As a result, some other people were put in charge of the water cannons, "and in recent days we saw how they either doused their own people or poured hoses on people from the courtyard of the parliament."

Zodelava also commented on the high-profile dismissal in the Ministry of Internal Affairs - the resignation letter was written by the head of the operational planning department of the special assignments department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, police colonel Irakli Shaishmelashvili.

As the former prosecutor notes, it was Shaishmelashvili's job to plan the dispersal of protests in Tbilisi. However, he understood both the risks associated with the active use of tear gas in a residential area and the fact that little depended on its planning. " Everything is decided by Khareba [Head of the Department of Special Assignments Zviad Kharazishvili]," Zodelava explained.

The former chief prosecutor drew special attention to the intensive use of tear gas by special forces, emphasizing that its use in this form "does not fit into any planning." It is strictly forbidden to release gas in areas with a large number of residential apartment buildings.

In addition to the fact that the actions of the special forces could result in a stampede, the repeated use of such special equipment could also lead to spatial orientation disorders in people living in the affected area. As a result, they could even fall off a balcony or slide down the stairs.

According to Zodelava, the Minister of Internal Affairs, Vakhtang Gomelauri, also knows that tear gas in this form can only be used in non-residential areas.

The third point mentioned by the former prosecutor concerns the psychological stability of special forces. He recalled that on December 4, Radio Liberty published a video where security forces engage in polemics with protesters, who "organized such a delicate debate that they beat them with a score of 1000:0." Citizens accused security forces of violating laws and betraying the homeland.

According to Murtaz Zodelava, 3-4 heads of special forces units took part in the polemics, who are strictly forbidden from any communication with citizens, especially discussions of political content. As a result, "they suffer a terrible defeat" , which is seen by their subordinates - about 100 special forces, who were convinced all this time that they are on the right side.

Zodelava notes that this was a very important broadcast. After it, the participants in the controversy were asked for an answer. " The nerves gave way and the incident I am talking about happened."

SOVA on sovanews.tv/ Instagram / Facebook/ YouTube

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jello_B]

I think it's more like an ultimatum to those who might demand land is ceded. I opine a paraphrasing such as "if there was a NATO membership guarantee, perhaps we could talk about it."

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

They would try and get it back diplomatically anyways. I think they’d be better going the other way.
occupied territories become independent and overseen by someone other than Russia or Ukraine. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO. Russia ****s off.

 

[wannabejack]

They would try and get it back diplomatically anyways. I think they’d be better going the other way.
occupied territories become independent and overseen by someone other than Russia or Ukraine. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO. Russia ****s off.

So basically russia gets what they want. Ukraine gets nothing.
People (Ukrainians) are currently leaving the “new regions” and people from russia are moving in “attracted be higher wages and lower house mortgages”. So these “independent” territories eventually vote to join russia.
russia use these new territories to launch their next war against Ukraine. NATO sit back and watches because Ukraine isn’t a NATO member and whatever treaty was signed by russia is ignored again.

 

[CD Xbow]

They would try and get it back diplomatically anyways. I think they’d be better going the other way.
occupied territories become independent and overseen by someone other than Russia or Ukraine. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO. Russia ****s off.

For Ukraine, being part of NATO has to part of whatever agreement is reached, otherwise Mr P will just rebuild and attack again. After all he hasn't finished off those dangerous nasty transgender Uki Nazi's.

 

[Zidane98]

They would try and get it back diplomatically anyways. I think they’d be better going the other way.
occupied territories become independent and overseen by someone other than Russia or Ukraine. Ukraine agrees not to join NATO. Russia ****s off.

Ukraine joining NATO is a must.

The simple facts are Ukraine turned over its nukes, cruise missiles, bomber fleets to Russia in exchange for sovereignty being recognised and not attacking Ukraine. Ironically it was the US who brokered this arrangement at the time. Commentators at the times predicted it could lead to a future invasion / war between Ukraine / Russia and here we are now.

Once the war is over Ukraine is joining NATO. The only questions is how much of it will join NATO. East Germany is a good example, a deal was done before reunification that there would never be any NATO bases one inch eastward on former East Germany territory. That deal is honored to this very day, there are no NATO bases in former East German territory nor will there ever be.


Something like that would work for Crimea as long as Russia also agrees to demilitarise Crimea. The previous agreement allowed Russia to have up to 25,000 troops in Crimea stationed at the naval base. Obviously no such agreement is workable in the future.


The other option is Crimea becomes an independent republic separate from Russia & Ukraine completely. No state allowed to have any military resources stationed there.


Either way after Russia has attacked and invaded Ukraine simply because it doesn't want to be a puppet state of Russia any longer for over 10 years now means NATO membership is the only security guarantee that Ukraine can rely on in the future.

Russia is not and never will have any say on this either.

 

[Zidane98]

So basically russia gets what they want. Ukraine gets nothing.
People (Ukrainians) are currently leaving the “new regions” and people from russia are moving in “attracted be higher wages and lower house mortgages”. So these “independent” territories eventually vote to join russia.
russia use these new territories to launch their next war against Ukraine. NATO sit back and watches because Ukraine isn’t a NATO member and whatever treaty was signed by russia is ignored again.

Yep. Russia must pay a heavy price for Russiafication, imposing fascism on Ukraine.


Going forward none of Ukraine's security agreements will involve Russia. They can't as they simply will not be honored.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[wannabejack]

Hungary to lose €1B in EU funds by year-end

Cash allocated for poorer regions will be gone for good unless Hungary completes reforms asked by the Commission.

www.politico.eu

The European Commission has been withholding over €16 billion in grants to poorer regions as well as post-Covid economic aid to boost growth as part of efforts to pressure right-wing leader Viktor Orbán to reverse reforms seen widely as anti-democratic.

And unless Hungary can carry out 17 measures and gain the European Commission's approval by Dec. 31 — this step alone normally takes months — around €1 billion in EU cash to poorer regions will be gone for good.