Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Present Not Past]

Most European countries haven't pulled their weight on defence spending and are unprepared for a major war (notable exceptions Poland & Türkiye). Hopefully that major war doesn't happen, but European inventories and arsenals have been depleted by this war. They can't rely on the US forever.

Yet European countries alone have transferred F 16 fighter jets to Ukraine?

 

[Werewolf]

Yet European countries alone have transferred F 16 fighter jets to Ukraine?

People made a big deal about the (small numbers of) F-16s, but I didn't get the hype - most Russian warplanes are comparable (the Su-35 and Su-57 are clearly superior). And F-16s also have to worry about S-300/400s.

Different story with tanks; NATO tanks can fight hull down and reverse, whereas Russian tanks are death traps.

Bushmasters have been handy. Unfortunately we missed an opportunity to have the Hawkei battle tested too.

But IMO the single most useful weapon system transferred to Ukraine has been the Javelin ATGM.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[barreness]

I’ve always (I think) been fairly neutral on this and appreciated your posts. But given what is happening;

How is it in Ukraines interest that attacking energy infrastructure is now a “ceasefire”, mostly this seems to benefit Russia

How is it in Ukraines interest to “ceasefire” in the Black Sea

It seems that this mostly helps Russia, Ukraine aren’t losing anything in the Black Sea, what do they have there. Is the “ceasefire” stopping Russia launching missiles from the Black Sea

Ukraine are an absolute pain in the arse to Russia right now, through their incursions across Russian borders. This would frustrate the **** out of Putin. It absolutely demonstrates that he cannot protect Russia

Ukraine aren’t losing a whole heap of ground at the minute. It’s a stalemate. Putin is out of his mind if he thinks Ukraine will give into everything he wants.

Putin would be best to settle for keeping the land they have acquired (even that’s fairly generous given the situation), and accepting the fact that Ukraine is now an independent state that can do what they want. Perhaps NATO is off the table I could see that, but denazification, no defence forces, pressuring an election, I mean carn

You’re in my opinion well educated in this topic, likely more than I, but what data are you looking at that makes you think Putin can demand all of what he is currently demanding. The only hope he has is the US goes full ****** and starts helping Russia. If Putin is reasonable now, the US (and maybe other nations I don’t know) will realise it is actually helpful to have a stable Russia and start “making up”. Surely, and obviously in my view, that’s better than Russia trying to bleed this out

The quick fall/withdrawal of Kursk shows how important US ISR(Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) is to keeping them in the fight. Ukraine was loosing ground before but they couldn't fight when it was withdrawn.

Without that US ISR and materiel(these obvs take a few weeks/months to flow to the front) Ukraine is gone, Europe can try but they won't match US ability and they don't want an actual war with Russia. Some people view this as Trump helping Russia but that will never happen, it's a withdrawal of help to Ukraine, which Trump may well decide on a whim.

This is the sad end that many have predicted, Ukraine needed to negotiate at many points of this war, it could well have been over within a few months and the peace conditions keep getting worse. The mid 2024 cease fire proposal was the last decent one.

My opinion is Putin is not serious with the current ceasefire(the meetings are to fluff Trump), they can keep fighting until maximal goals, probably something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya. They've spent too much blood and treasure to stop now and it seems clear no one will stop them. The entirety of Ukraine is too much to occupy with the nationalists in the west, a rump demilitarised state is the best chance for some kind of peace. Russia will never accept NATO in Ukraine or Georgia, this much is clear

Of course no one can be sure what Putin or Trump(or their military hierarchies) are actually thinking.

Well stalemate is an interesting thing, many wars look like a stalemate until they aren't. Germany collapsing in WW1 or the Allied advance in Italy WW2, both looked liked snails pace until it was over in a few weeks.

The data? well idk which bit do you want. Russia is out producing Europe in artillery shells and tanks/apcs. They have far more men and a very nationalist population. Massive nuclear stockpile and 'wunderwaffe' like oreshnik. The Russian army is largley volunteer and Ukrainian soldiers are picked up from the street and have deserted in the hundreds of thousands. Most Ukrainian refugees don't want to return and I saw a study that suggested 500k men will leave when they are allowed to*

*I'll link you stuff if you like, of course this war is full of propaganda and it's always hard to get accurate numbers

 

[CD Xbow]

People made a big deal about the (small numbers of) F-16s, but I didn't get the hype - most Russian warplanes are comparable (the Su-35 and Su-57 are clearly superior). And F-16s also have to worry about S-300/400s.

Different story with tanks; NATO tanks can fight hull down and reverse, whereas Russian tanks are death traps.

Bushmasters have been handy. Unfortunately we missed an opportunity to have the Hawkei battle tested too.

But IMO the single most useful weapon system transferred to Ukraine has been the Javelin ATGM.

Werewolf, the F16 are much better than the Russian aircraft and you can find some accounts of that https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-f16-pilot-russian-moves-fear-nato-jets-mirage-2025-3
It's not so much the physical platform and it's kinetics, it's the systems from radar to missiles and the CONOPS surrounding there use.. Mr Putin has been utterly unwilling to put the Su57 to any real test in Ukraine, if it was going to be so superior surely he would have used it to dominate the skies over Ukraine. He hasn't, it can't, it's probably not even a true 5th generation jet wrt to stealth. It's true RCS is said to be similar to a clean Super Hornet.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[OneGreatClub]

He only just heard Putin was using Iranian weapons? Really?

Mr “I will end the war on day one!” says he will have to think about this ‘new’ information for a while, talk it out, delay for his comrade Putin.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Mobbs]

I reckon I'd honk out of instinct. Burn, things we aren't allowed name in case we make them sad, burn.

A Russian soldier drives past a Russian destroyed armored vehicle with exploding ammunition inside. Close call.
View attachment IMG_6506.MP4

 

[barreness]

Werewolf, the F16 are much better than the Russian aircraft and you can find some accounts of that https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-f16-pilot-russian-moves-fear-nato-jets-mirage-2025-3
It's not so much the physical platform and it's kinetics, it's the systems from radar to missiles and the CONOPS surrounding there use.. Mr Putin has been utterly unwilling to put the Su57 to any real test in Ukraine, if it was going to be so superior surely he would have used it to dominate the skies over Ukraine. He hasn't, it can't, it's probably not even a true 5th generation jet wrt to stealth. It's true RCS is said to be similar to a clean Super Hornet.

I always find it difficult to get an accurate read on jets. F35 is terrible/brilliant, I can find info sprouting both, they fire standoff munitions so don't test air defence?

There's pretty obviously no air superiority for either side in this war due to the shitloads of AA on both sides. Ukraine had huge amounts of s200's(and some s300's)from the USSR days to go with the patriots and manpads. They even shot down a passenger plane in 2001 by accident

Why we see KA's firing rockets on ballistic territory and you'd think lack of su57. Does Russia not want to test them against patriots? or they already know they can be done by s300's? Or they are just mediocre? all of the above?

Seems clear that the F16's aren't doing much, bit of fanfare when they chased down some cruise missiles, Ukraines best pilot crashes and dies(rumours of friendly fire), then nothing. Would be hard to transition a MiG pilot over, language barrier and a completely different control structure/airframe

 

[barreness]

Why is the flag blue and yellow?

 

[CD Xbow]

I always find it difficult to get an accurate read on jets. F35 is terrible/brilliant, I can find info sprouting both, they fire standoff munitions so don't test air defence?

There's pretty obviously no air superiority for either side in this war due to the shitloads of AA on both sides. Ukraine had huge amounts of s200's(and some s300's)from the USSR days to go with the patriots and manpads. They even shot down a passenger plane in 2001 by accident

Why we see KA's firing rockets on ballistic territory and you'd think lack of su57. Does Russia not want to test them against patriots? or they already know they can be done by s300's? Or they are just mediocre? all of the above?

Seems clear that the F16's aren't doing much, bit of fanfare when they chased down some cruise missiles, Ukraines best pilot crashes and dies(rumours of friendly fire), then nothing. Would be hard to transition a MiG pilot over, language barrier and a completely different control structure/airframe

It's about systems more than platforms. Western air forces put a huge amount of work in to suppression of enemy air defences (SEADS). These are complex mission coordinating elements from all domains. The Russians don't really do it and we have seen they have been unable to establish dominance in the air for over a much weaker neighbour in 3 years. They have been reduced to throwing stones, rather inaccurate ones, from a long distance. The F35 design mainly reflects the western air forces 'need for SEADS', it also makes a wonderful node in a battle space network. There have been many legitimate problems with the program but the most vehement criticism came from shills for Russia or Boeing. These guys have been shown to be wrong. There are 1100 plus F35 flying, with a sticker price of around $82 million USD for the F35 A. A modern F15 starts at $97 million flyaway but would probably need a lot more gear added (and dollars)

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[Baldur]

He only just heard Putin was using Iranian weapons? Really?

Mr “I will end the war on day one!” says he will have to think about this ‘new’ information for a while, talk it out, delay for his comrade Putin.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Why is the flag blue and yellow?

Flag of the Russian Airforce?

 

[Jamolad]

Flag of the Russian Airforce?

Yeah, looks like the "Russian Aerospace Forces" flag

 

[Zidane98]

Why is the flag blue and yellow?

Do you find those colours offensive?

It's Russian af flag colours btw tovarisch.

Why do they have to be searched comrade?


Pooinhispantstin afraid of a military coup?

 

[Werewolf]

Werewolf, the F16 are much better than the Russian aircraft and you can find some accounts of that https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-f16-pilot-russian-moves-fear-nato-jets-mirage-2025-3
It's not so much the physical platform and it's kinetics, it's the systems from radar to missiles and the CONOPS surrounding there use.

To steal a line from Top Gun: "It's not the plane, it's the pilot". But if a 1970's fighter is "much better" than 21st century Russian fighters, then the Russian aerospace engineers should be transferred to the Storm-V units.

The Americans like to talk up their gear, but the F-16 got smashed by the cheaper Gripen (model C??) in exercises.

It is however an improvement on Ukraine's MiG-29s and obviously the Ukrainian pilots will be grateful for that.

Mr Putin has been utterly unwilling to put the Su57 to any real test in Ukraine, if it was going to be so superior surely he would have used it to dominate the skies over Ukraine. He hasn't, it can't, it's probably not even a true 5th generation jet wrt to stealth. It's true RCS is said to be similar to a clean Super Hornet.

1. They're desperate to avoid Su-57 losses/capture in enemy territory, so they only fly them in Russian airspace.

2. Yes the high RCS is common knowledge - it deterred further Indian involvement. Otherwise it's a great plane.

(Inferior to peers like the J-20 and F-22, but the Russians are hoping not to fight China or America)

 

[Chief]

Words are useless without actions.

Europe has given more to support Ukraine than the US.

Most European countries haven't pulled their weight on defence spending and are unprepared for a major war (notable exceptions Poland & Türkiye).

Possibly. France has the largest European army. Otherwise, more info needed.

Hopefully that major war doesn't happen, but European inventories and arsenals have been depleted by this war. They can't rely on the US forever.

They do need to do more, but they have spent more than the US. They have been swapping over to non-Russian energy supplies.

Money spent on an arms race is more likely to hurt Russia, just as it hurt the Soviet Union 40 years ago. It would be even better if Russian leadership wasn't so damn paranoid, but that probably won't ever change.

Probably. Which is a reason for the US not to abandon Ukraine.

 

[Mobbs]

Possibly. France has the largest European army. Otherwise, more info needed.

Who follows after France - maybe Germany and Poland?

 

[OneGreatClub]

Clown show

 

[OneGreatClub]

Snyder tells it like it is