Welcome Welcome to Adelaide: James Peatling - Traded with F3, F4 for F2

[jackster83]

I think the sanfl development guys think they’re doing a good job because of the odd JHF and Rankine

Plus any additional AFL funding would be conditional and would result in the SANFL losing a lot of autonomy.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Okay so looking at what value James Peatling would have in a trade, I went looking for past trades with the following criteria.

1. Approximately 4 years in the system
2. Not fully cemented in the side throughout the year but improving
3. Around 40 to 50 total games

And found the following

Liam Henry - future 2nd + swap of future 4ths
Dylan Stephens - pick 25 upgraded to pick 19 + pick 44
Bobby Hill - future 2nd + minor pick downgrade
Hugh Greenwood - future 3rd + future 4th
Tom Bell - pick 21 + pick 41 downgraded to pick 60

Related trades but not quite the same

Jordan Clark (three years in system) - pick 22 + future 4th upgraded to future 3rd
Alex Witherden (fell out of favor, four years in system) - pick 58 + future 3rd
Patrick Lipinski (five years in system) - pick 43
Jack Higgins (three years in system) - pick 21 upgraded to pick 17 + future 2nd
Adam Saad (to Essendon, three years in system) - future 2nd
Callum Ah Chee (fell out of favor, four years in system) - future 2nd + future 4th
Alex Keath (30 games) - future 2nd + swap of 3rds
Jarryd Lyons (six years in system) - pick 43
Jaidyn Stephenson (three years in system) - pick 26 + pick 39 upgraded to pick 33
Curtly Hampton (fell out of favor, five years in system) - future 2nd
Troy Menzel (three years in system) - pick 28
Paul Seedsman (five years in system) - pick 32
Stewart Crameri (more best 22) - pick 26
Izak Rankine (more best 22) - pick 5

Verdict: Based on this I would say that trading our future 2nd round pick with no other pick swaps is fair value

Don't know what those GWS posters are smoking thinking his value would involve a first round pick

Spot on analysis , this one is even easier than the ANB one to assess

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I suspect your answer includes sarcasm.

No I actually think they think they do a good job

Forgetting that this current SA batch won the national U16s then 2 years later finished bottom in the U18s

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Plus any additional AFL funding would be conditional and would result in the SANFL losing a lot of autonomy.

Yep they think they’ve got it under control themselves

 

[TBM]

No I actually think they think they do a good job

Forgetting that this current SA batch won the national U16s then 2 years later finished bottom in the U18s

And you see a lot of players come into their draft year as highly-touted 17-year-olds, but for whatever reason slide significantly or not even get drafted. Seems to be a higher proportion of players that don't "kick on" in SA than other states. Also physically, a lot of our players look underdeveloped / skinny compared to the other states.

So yes, I think there's big flaws in our current development pathways.

 

[1990crow]

Plus any additional AFL funding would be conditional and would result in the SANFL losing a lot of autonomy.

SANFL needs to see the writing on the wall.
Unless AFL is popular in SA, which needs SA players to fill out the local teams well enough to occasionally win a flag they will slowly erode.

 

[Cap]

I'm not bagging the area, I'm saying it's strong Rugby League heartland and I don't believe AFL will ever get much traction there. I believe quite strongly the many millions being poured into the GWS each year would be much better spent on community football in traditional Aussie Rules states.

I do think the AFL should be spending more in community football.

But I still think GC and GWS are a smart long term investment.

Just be nice if GC start winning more games

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I do think the AFL should be spending more in community football.

But I still think GC and GWS are a smart long term investment.

Just be nice if GC start winning more games

GC will start going well from next year onwards I think

 

[Hodgy]

They have been sensational for afl growth

Hard to see from an Adelaide bubble but we see it in northern states

Queensland has far more afl participants in amateur and junior leagues than SA these days and it’s not close

The 2025 afl mens draft might have 4-5 Queenslanders taken in 1st round and up to 3-4 from NSW - basically half the 1st round of the draft

The allies will continue to be competitive and win U18 nationals at times

Eventually QLD in particular might be able to have a standalone team in the national U18s as I think it’s getting close to them being better than SA consistently

And we haven’t even mentioned womens AFL at grassroots where NSW / QLD is flying

If you don’t think that’s good for the game it’s a narrow minded view

It’s a direct correlation to the suns and giants coming into the league and their work with academies etc , also helps amateur participation rate

I have zero interest in seeing the AFL grow, I care about the top level competition of the sport I love being as fair and representative as it can be. If it is indeed the best sport in the country it will grow by itself and when those areas are truly AFL heartland, give them a team then.

The AFL should be like the IOC and have as their clear no. 1 KPI to run the elite level of the sport as fairly as possible. It’s not the IOC’s job to grow athletics around the world, that is up to the local federations and also should happen because we get to see a Ussain Bolt winning on a completely fair playing field and get inspired because of it. If the IOc gave “priority picks” to country that hadn’t won a medal for a while, or changed the rules of the 100m to get more world records then Bolts achievement would be lessened as a result.

The AFL needs to be either the commercial rights holder of footy or the governing body, it is a clear conflict of interest to be both.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I have zero interest in seeing the AFL grow, I care about the top level competition of the sport I love being as fair and representative as it can be. If it is indeed the best sport in the country it will grow by itself and when those areas are truly AFL heartland, give them a team then.

The AFL should be like the IOC and have as their clear no. 1 KPI to run the elite level of the sport as fairly as possible. It’s not the IOC’s job to grow athletics around the world, that is up to the local federations and also should happen because we get to see a Ussain Bolt winning on a completely fair playing field and get inspired because of it. If the IOc gave “priority picks” to country that hadn’t won a medal for a while, or changed the rules of the 100m to get more world records then Bolts achievement would be lessened as a result.

The AFL needs to be either the commercial rights holder of footy or the governing body, it is a clear conflict of interest to be both.

The afl doesn’t really care about your interests

It cares about growth

 

[1990crow]

I have zero interest in seeing the AFL grow, I care about the top level competition of the sport I love being as fair and representative as it can be. If it is indeed the best sport in the country it will grow by itself and when those areas are truly AFL heartland, give them a team then.

The AFL should be like the IOC and have as their clear no. 1 KPI to run the elite level of the sport as fairly as possible. It’s not the IOC’s job to grow athletics around the world, that is up to the local federations and also should happen because we get to see a Ussain Bolt winning on a completely fair playing field and get inspired because of it. If the IOc gave “priority picks” to country that hadn’t won a medal for a while, or changed the rules of the 100m to get more world records then Bolts achievement would be lessened as a result.

The AFL needs to be either the commercial rights holder of footy or the governing body, it is a clear conflict of interest to be both.

Narrow minded thinking.
Ignores the incoming population boom in Western Sydney and southern Queensland and the potential for growth in support nationally.
If the AFL does nothing these become NRL fans.

 

[50BC]

I do think the AFL should be spending more in community football.

But I still think GC and GWS are a smart long term investment.

Just be nice if GC start winning more games

I see a much better case for GCS long term, even though as a club, obviously they haven't been as well run as GWS.
Swans moved to Sydney in 1982, that's 42 years ago, 42. If you look at the NSW players drafted each year the vast majority are either from traditional AFL areas ie Riverina, ACT, far South Coast or Far West or they are the children of families that have relocated from Southern AFL States. Ie they haven't been "grown" by the presence of an AFL club in that state. The number of AFL converts drafted from that state is no more than 1 or 2 a year. Thats after 42 years. I believe after GWS have been there 40+ years they will have grown the player base by even less. I just don't see the pay off.

 

[Cromulant]

I see a much better case for GCS long term, even though as a club, obviously they haven't been as well run as GWS.
Swans moved to Sydney in 1982, that's 42 years ago, 42. If you look at the NSW players drafted each year the vast majority are either from traditional AFL areas ie Riverina, ACT, far South Coast or Far West or they are the children of families that have relocated from Southern AFL States. Ie they haven't been "grown" by the presence of an AFL club in that state. The number of AFL converts drafted from that state is no more than 1 or 2 a year. Thats after 42 years. I believe after GWS have been there 40+ years they will have grown the player base by even less. I just don't see the pay off.

The Suns are a worry for me, they'd wouldn't be the first sporting franchise to fall over in that part of the world.

GWS are in a sporting heartland at least.

 

[baldandbroke]

I have zero interest in seeing the AFL grow, I care about the top level competition of the sport I love being as fair and representative as it can be. If it is indeed the best sport in the country it will grow by itself and when those areas are truly AFL heartland, give them a team then.

The AFL should be like the IOC and have as their clear no. 1 KPI to run the elite level of the sport as fairly as possible. It’s not the IOC’s job to grow athletics around the world, that is up to the local federations and also should happen because we get to see a Ussain Bolt winning on a completely fair playing field and get inspired because of it. If the IOc gave “priority picks” to country that hadn’t won a medal for a while, or changed the rules of the 100m to get more world records then Bolts achievement would be lessened as a result.

The AFL needs to be either the commercial rights holder of footy or the governing body, it is a clear conflict of interest to be both.

Whoa ... we are using the Olympics as a high water mark for fairness in sport? You think the Olympics #1 KPI is to be fair?

 

[PeterSalt]

The greater participation, the greater talent pool

Kids playing the sport now are more likely to be fans for life

There's articles out there if your interested enough to have a look

In isolation, Western Sydney does look like a slow burn. Other parts of the 2 northern states not so much

AFL aims for one million participants, backed by $1B of investment - AFL Sydney Juniors

Jake Austin, Josie Capes, Bella Wadham, Charlotte Capes and Ben Wadham of the Moore Park Tigers. Photo: Phil Hillyard . The AFL has set its sights on having one million registered participants by 2033 nationally, with that ambition to be fuelled…Read more ›

aflsj.com.au

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The Suns are a worry for me, they'd wouldn't be the first sporting franchise to fall over in that part of the world.

GWS are in a sporting heartland at least.

Take a look at how their academy is going

I think you should be worried for us , not for them

 

[Hodgy]

Narrow minded thinking.
Ignores the incoming population boom in Western Sydney and southern Queensland and the potential for growth in support nationally.
If the AFL does nothing these become NRL fans.

What’s the problem with that?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

What’s the problem with that?

Pretty simple , the afl starts to go down the path of Rugby Union

There are multiple threats including basketball , soccer and rugby league

The afl knows it can’t take for granted the current position it’s in

 

[PeterSalt]

What’s the problem with that?

Kids participating now will be the people spending money to watch the game in 10-15 years time

More kids playing the game now will expand the talent pool of players to pick from in 10-15 years time


To some degree the slow death of Rugby has been associated with a policy of spending huge amounts of money on the Wallabies and largely ignoring grassroots

Huge player contracts to fend off big money contracts from Europe didn't help

Conflict between the Qld & NSW unions was another problem that doesn't ever seem to have been resolved

24 years ago Australia were world cup champions and regularly towelling up the All Blacks

 

[rabidcrow]

I see a much better case for GCS long term, even though as a club, obviously they haven't been as well run as GWS.
Swans moved to Sydney in 1982, that's 42 years ago, 42. If you look at the NSW players drafted each year the vast majority are either from traditional AFL areas ie Riverina, ACT, far South Coast or Far West or they are the children of families that have relocated from Southern AFL States. Ie they haven't been "grown" by the presence of an AFL club in that state. The number of AFL converts drafted from that state is no more than 1 or 2 a year. Thats after 42 years. I believe after GWS have been there 40+ years they will have grown the player base by even less. I just don't see the pay off.

It grows the dollars


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Cap]

I see a much better case for GCS long term, even though as a club, obviously they haven't been as well run as GWS.
Swans moved to Sydney in 1982, that's 42 years ago, 42. If you look at the NSW players drafted each year the vast majority are either from traditional AFL areas ie Riverina, ACT, far South Coast or Far West or they are the children of families that have relocated from Southern AFL States. Ie they haven't been "grown" by the presence of an AFL club in that state. The number of AFL converts drafted from that state is no more than 1 or 2 a year. Thats after 42 years. I believe after GWS have been there 40+ years they will have grown the player base by even less. I just don't see the pay off.

Sydneys population is set to hit 6m by 2030 (from about 5.2m now)

Adelaide is about 1.3m and not set to hit 2m by like 2050.

That is why the AFL is investing in Sydney.

 

[Cap]

GC will start going well from next year onwards I think

Yeah the AFL seems to have fixed some of the earlier mistakes it made.

I know people see the GC like it was in the 80s, but it the growth in Brisbane and surronds is incredible, they'll be fine long term imo.

 

[Cromulant]

Take a look at how their academy is going

I think you should be worried for us , not for them

In terms of playing list yeah, but I'm talking sustainability of a club.

 

[50BC]

The Suns are a worry for me, they'd wouldn't be the first sporting franchise to fall over in that part of the world.

GWS are in a sporting heartland at least.

It's true the gold coast area has been a sporting franchise graveyard. Problem for GCS is despite there being a reasonable number of AFL supporters in the area they mostly still support their original club. Eg I got a cousin on the Gold Coast, still a die hard Port fan, he (and his kids) will never support GCS.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The greater participation, the greater talent pool

Kids playing the sport now are more likely to be fans for life

There's articles out there if your interested enough to have a look

In isolation, Western Sydney does look like a slow burn. Other parts of the 2 northern states not so much

AFL aims for one million participants, backed by $1B of investment - AFL Sydney Juniors

Jake Austin, Josie Capes, Bella Wadham, Charlotte Capes and Ben Wadham of the Moore Park Tigers. Photo: Phil Hillyard . The AFL has set its sights on having one million registered participants by 2033 nationally, with that ambition to be fuelled…Read more ›

aflsj.com.au

It’s like people don’t realise that the afl has studied this in depth

I think they’d also be surprised re the positive metrics re their investment

As for people moving north and still supporting their old club , that will eventually change to but will take a generation