Opinion Who breaks their Premiership drought first?

[M Malice]

In the 25 years this century 11 clubs have won Premierships >

Hawks 4
Cats 4
Lions 4
Tigers 3
Swans 2
Eagles 2
Magpies 2
Bombers 1
Port 1
Bulldogs 1
Demons 1

There are 7 clubs without a flag this century and years since their last Premiership >

Saints 58
Dockers 30*
Blues 29
Crows 26
Kangaroos 25
Suns 14*
Giants 13*

* = Never won a Premiership.
________________________
Who of the 7 clubs will be the next to break their drought and win a Premiership?

 

[TheUnicorn]

Tier 1
Giants - Dockers - Blues

Tier 2
Suns

Tier 3
Kangaroos - Crows

Tier 4
Saints

I would say the Giants are the most likely to win, followed by the Dockers. The Suns have plenty of talent, so I believe they should be next, even though they are in a lower tier than Carlton. Carlton's window is currently open, but I don't think they will win one with their current list.

 

[Toump Ass]

Carlton have PEAKED.

All downhill now sorry baggers, enjoy your rebuild!

 

[M Malice]

Tier 1
Giants - Dockers - Blues

Tier 2
Suns

Tier 3
Kangaroos - Crows

Tier 4
Saints

Pretty much agree with that, maybe Crows up to tier 2, I'm tipping the Dockers to do it soon if they get the likes of Shai Bolton and Liam Baker in this off season.

 

[Colonial]

Hopefully the Giants

 

[Freomaniac]

Hopefully the Giants

I don't mind.

But the best way your team will get their 1st flag will be vs a non Vic's side. Similar path like Port in 2004, swans in 2005, eagles in 2006 and Brisbane in 2024.

It can be done. I didn't mind the 2024 grand final

 

[McIvor]

Freo with their list profile with GWS a close second and Crows as a smoky. I like what Adelaide is building and wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a rapid rise.

 

[rye]

carlton is the team that is the furthest away from a premiership

bloated cap committed to a C+ list that has little upside to it. proven that it cant perform in september.

will float around 6-12 for the next couple of years and then crash to a full rebuild.

 

[Fadge]

carlton is the team that is the furthest away from a premiership

bloated cap committed to a C+ list that has little upside to it. proven that it cant perform in september.

will float around 6-12 for the next couple of years and then crash to a full rebuild.

Good to see that many people are now seeing what I've been saying for a long time.

I shake my head when I look at the ladder predictor thread and see posters still predicting them for top 4...

 

[Fadge]

Tier 1 - Can contend immediately and maintain it for next 2 to 4 years - Giants, Fremantle.
Tier 2 - Need some work but are building nicely. Could happen quickly, but could still take another couple of years before they're contending - Adelaide, Suns.
Tier 3 - Going in right direction but still need a few more years into their young guns and have a few pieces of the jigsaw to find - North.
Tier 4 - I honestly don't know what they're doing, and I don't think they do either - Carlton, Saints.

 

[BF Tiger]

I'm in agreeance with some here that it is the Giants and then Fremantle.

Giants have the list now I believe so need to strike.

Fremantle are so close. They were staring top 4 in the face before a late season implosion this year. Makes me wonder why they are quibbling over the price of Bolton, a classy player who can be a match-winner and might have been the difference in those four late season losses by 1, 11, 9 and 20 points (worth noting that Freo led in the last quarter in two of those games and in the other two were within a goal in the last quarter).

The Suns are still rising but not there yet, and may not get there this cycle.

This Carlton group just don't appear to have it in them.

The others are too far back.

 

[Vic pokiesmon]

When the team u support is one of the teams like Giants for myself I obviously hope it's Giants.While I think Giants list is ready this year (assuming we don't lose any more fringe players and Stringer and Shiel come) to challenge Freo isnt far behind.
Coming up against a non Vic team is an advantage as others have suggested but if freo can get home finals and the momentum of 1/2 of Wa behind them it's pretty even.Freos window should extend a while if Giants dont win it soon..Same with Gold Coast..There 24 draftees and Lombard looks real good so definitely from a few years time.

Carlton need to win it in next couple of years..I also rate Ross so i wouldnt rule Saints out

 

[Freomaniac]

Freo with their list profile with GWS a close second and Crows as a smoky. I like what Adelaide is building and wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a rapid rise.

Adelaide is Solid but I am not totally Sold on them.

Backline is solid. Forward line Post Tex Walker had Tilthorpe at Full forward, Fogarty at CHF, Rachele and Rankine on forward pockets. There is talent there. Its limited but still versatile they need another small forward that can rotate on a wing and forward flank kicking 20-25 goals a season.

I am not sold on the Crows midfield. Crazy to think the crows side could have got Sam Powell Pepper, Zac Butters and one of Caleb Serong or Hayden young. choose any of those 2 blokes and the crows could be finals contenders.

Freo has an ok List profile. But that does not assure anything. Dockers can easily spend the next 3 years contesting for finals only to finish 9th to 12th. Or they can make finals in 2025, 2026 and 2027 and make a grand final by 2026 or 2027 or 2028.

GWS could win the flag next season if things fall their way.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Carlton have PEAKED.

All downhill now sorry baggers, enjoy your rebuild!

Well if we have at least we took you down with us.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

A clean run of injury and depending on who we recruit, i still think Carlton will be there or thereabouts in 2025.

We won't have a prime Cripps forever though, but our premiership window is at least another two to three years away from closing imo.

 

[voorhees]

Carlton.. they got the talent on the list.
Just got to get the injury free run and a bit of luck

 

[JPetro83]

GWS will.

The likes of Crows, Carlton, Saints, Freo are just cursed and its just in their club DNA to fail

The crows blew massive chances in 05/06 when they were the best team over two years yet failed Prelim final weekend and 2017 shat the bed on GF day.

Suns and North and just not good enough.

 

[Freomaniac]

Well if we have at least we took you down with us.

I Know you just Quoted a demons fan.

Scary thing is, If you actually think about it, I can see Carltons Path to a flag in a Similar way to Demons 2021 flag.

Allow me to Explain....

Demons spent a long period out of the finals... From 2007-17. They narrowly missed out on finals in 2017. Made finals and won 2 finals in 2018 and made a prelim. Had been crippled with injuries the next season in 2019 and finished 17th. Narrowly missed out on finals in 2020, Then Stormed to a flag in 2021.

Carltons path is scarily similar if you think about it. They spent a long period of no finals. From 2014 to 2022. Carlton narrowly missed out on finals in 2022. Like Demons in 2018, finished in a 5th to 8th finals spot. Won 2 finals in 2023. Carlton were injury ravaged in 2024 like the demons in 2019 but made finals.

So as it stands now and if the Carltons path is anything to go by similar to the demons path to the 2021 flag, Carlton will narrowly miss out on finals in 2025 and Storm to the flag in 2026. Then have top 4 finishes and straight sets exit in 2027 and 2028.

 

[Shane Heard]

Essendon. You know we’re comin’

 

[Freomaniac]

I'm in agreeance with some here that it is the Giants and then Fremantle.

Giants have the list now I believe so need to strike.

Fremantle are so close. They were staring top 4 in the face before a late season implosion this year. Makes me wonder why they are quibbling over the price of Bolton, a classy player who can be a match-winner and might have been the difference in those four late season losses by 1, 11, 9 and 20 points (worth noting that Freo led in the last quarter in two of those games and in the other two were within a goal in the last quarter).

The Suns are still rising but not there yet, and may not get there this cycle.

This Carlton group just don't appear to have it in them.

The others are too far back.

Shai Bolton is a risky trade for the dockers. No doubt he has talent and can be a match winner. But you don't know when he can turn up.

It could end up like the Jesse Hogan trade too

 

[Ricmel]

Tier 1
Giants - Dockers - Blues

Tier 2
Suns

Tier 3
Kangaroos - Crows

Tier 4
Saints

I think Carlton may have missed their window. Would need a season in the next 2 where everything went right for them. Freo and GWS should be contending next two years at least. Throw a blanket over the rest I think. North/Crows/Saints have a lot of young talent - Ask again at end of next year.

 

[Rotayjay]

We're the only club without a vote in the above poll, and that's appropriate. Our club is steeped in mediocrity and the embrace of it. It's the kind of club that gives an absolute spud like Lachie Murphy 100 games and puts him in the leadership group.

 

[Freomaniac]

We're the only club without a vote in the above poll, and that's appropriate. Our club is steeped in mediocrity and the embrace of it. It's the kind of club that gives an absolute spud like Lachie Murphy 100 games and puts him in the leadership group.

Most of the crows rebuild was fine.

Back 6 is solid despite crows being bottom 4. There is a semi decent forward line when Tex Walker is gone.

Just need that elite inside mid or 2.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Essendon. You know we’re comin’

Whatever it takes to win a final

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Giants, they lead both grand finalists and got beat right on the buzzer in both of their finals by a goal or less. It could just be some adjustments needed in order for them to go the whole way.