Who will be better in 2024? Hawthorn or Essendon?

[mike ross]

An Essendon supporting mate messaged me during the round 1 game saying these were clearly two of the poorest teams in the competition.

Looks like things might have swiftly turned around for the Bombers and are slowing but surely turning around for the Hawks.

Lets hope so but it's a long road ahead for both clubs.

 

[Yoda_]

An Essendon supporting mate messaged me during the round 1 game saying these were clearly two of the poorest teams in the competition.

Looks like things might have swiftly turned around for the Bombers and are slowing but surely turning around for the Hawks.

You can see the bare bones of a good little unit, lots of holes to fill that will require patience but overall, you can understand the positivity with what the Hawks are doing

 

[BomberBoy123]

Over to you, Essendon.

The gap widens…..

 

[HairyO]

The gap widens…..

Someone's a little head****ed by Hawthorn.

 

[BomberBoy123]

Someone's a little headhecked by Hawthorn.

Nup but was highly entertaining watching you spuds shit the bed this arvo

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Nup but was highly entertaining watching you spuds s**t the bed this arvo

I like the Dons but you’re insufferable, please stop spewing garbage.

 

[Havoc]

Hawthorn v Essendon final.. a possibility this year??

 

[jdstorm]

Hawthorn v Essendon final.. a possibility this year??

Could be Hawthorn could scrape into 8th and and Essendon could be 5th

 

[HairyO]

You’ll be lucky to start favourite in 4 of your remaining matches, highly doubt you’ll be winning 6 of them.

Since May 7 we have won 5 games and lost one game by one point. So we only need a single win in the next 9.

We are currently only 1.5 games behind Essendon. Bomber fans (wouldnt have been you would it ??) were saying the Bombers would end the season 10 games ahead of us. Better hope you win that Roos game next week when we have a rest. Gonna be a hard slog to win every single game til the end of the year.

 

[mike ross]

Since May 7 we have won 5 games and lost one game by one point. So we only need a single win in the next 9.

We are currently only 1.5 games behind Essendon. Bomber fans (wouldnt have been you would it ??) were saying the Bombers would end the season 10 games ahead of us. Better hope you win that Roos game next week when we have a rest. Gonna be a hard slog to win every single game til the end of the year.

I've got to say I'm enjoying the improvement of Hawthorn. I guess you can say I'm not your typical supporter that blindly hates other teams. Unfortunately, as much as I'm a fan of watching teams improve, these dick measuring threads are just low quality banter.

 

[BomberBoy123]

Since May 7 we have won 5 games and lost one game by one point. So we only need a single win in the next 9.

We are currently only 1.5 games behind Essendon. Bomber fans (wouldnt have been you would it ??) were saying the Bombers would end the season 10 games ahead of us. Better hope you win that Roos game next week when we have a rest. Gonna be a hard slog to win every single game til the end of the year.

No doubt you’ve improved and exceeded expectations but I said it’d be closer to 10 than 3.
We don’t play the Roos next week…. Or again

 

[HairyO]

No doubt you’ve improved and exceeded expectations but I said it’d be closer to 10 than 3.
We don’t play the Roos next week…. Or again

Ahhh was Eagles next. Knew it was one of the easy-beats. Essendon really need to bury them. Very poor % badly needs a boost.

 

[BomberBoy123]

Ahhh was Eagles next. Knew it was one of the easy-beats. Essendon really need to bury them. Very poor % badly needs a boost.

Why does it?

 

[Crankyhawk]

The gap widens…..

and now it is only 1.5 wins.

 

[hk89]

It has been a crazy season. Not many years could a team sitting in 4th spot have not beaten a single team in the 8 based on the end-of-round-16 ladder. Unlikely they'll keep their top 4 spot now, which is a pity, because watching Essendon lose two finals instead of the usual one, would be very entertaining.

 

[BomberBoy123]

It has been a crazy season. Not many years could a team sitting in 4th spot have not beaten a single team in the 8 based on the end-of-round-16 ladder. Unlikely they'll keep their top 4 spot now, which is a pity, because watching Essendon lose two finals instead of the usual one, would be very entertaining.

Its pointless coming up with this stat until the season is done, its far too close on the ladder to get a true reflection, have you taken into account that some of teams Essendon have beaten are not in the 8 because of that very reason?

 

[Thrawn]

Its pointless coming up with this stat until the season is done, its far too close on the ladder to get a true reflection, have you taken into account that some of teams Essendon have beaten are not in the 8 because of that very reason?

Then take 1-13th into account, with the bottom five there being on 32 points each and a game away from the top 8. On that metric, Essendon are 3-1-5, yet to play Brisbane/Melbourne/Fremantle.

 

[hk89]

Its pointless coming up with this stat until the season is done, its far too close on the ladder to get a true reflection, have you taken into account that some of teams Essendon have beaten are not in the 8 because of that very reason?

As I said, it is a close season, which is why 4th and 13th are only separated by 1.5 wins and 2.1%, and in that situation there will be a lot of teams whose position outside the 8 could be down to just one loss.

If nothing else changed, and we kicked a little straighter against your mob, we'd be in the 8 tonight. If you combine that with two other sliding door moments, and our late miss against pies was a goal, and we didn't concede two goals in the final 20 seconds against Port, and Hawthorn would be 2nd on the ladder. Not many seasons can 13th claim only 3 "what-ifs" after round 16 to get to second spot. Insanely tight competition this year. Coincidentally, it is seasons like this where the uneven draw can really have an impact on who plays finals.

 

[hk89]

Then take 1-13th into account, with the bottom five there being on 32 points each and a game away from the top 8. On that metric, Essendon are 3-1-5, yet to play Brisbane/Melbourne/Fremantle.

Nearly the same as Hawthorn, who against 1-13 are 3-0-5. Despite the similar performance agains the top 13, we're 9 spots behind them! We've missed Carlton and Freo from the top 13 teams so far, but also have return matches against Pies, Cats (I think Bombers have a few tough return matches coming up too?).

Not many teams going around who have great records against the top 8 so far, hence the giant log jam happening around 4th-13th spots.

 

[BomberBoy123]

As I said, it is a close season, which is why 4th and 13th are only separated by 1.5 wins and 2.1%, and in that situation there will be a lot of teams whose position outside the 8 could be down to just one loss.

If nothing else changed, and we kicked a little straighter against your mob, we'd be in the 8 tonight. If you combine that with two other sliding door moments, and our late miss against pies was a goal, and we didn't concede two goals in the final 20 seconds against Port, and Hawthorn would be 2nd on the ladder. Not many seasons can 13th claim only 3 "what-ifs" after round 16 to get to second spot. Insanely tight competition this year. Coincidentally, it is seasons like this where the uneven draw can really have an impact on who plays finals.

Essendon could also say the same thing about matches with Collingwood, Gold Coast and Carlton, kick a bit straighter and we win all those and we’d be 2 games clear in second, most teams would have those “what if” games.

 

[Thrawn]

Essendon could also say the same thing about matches with Collingwood, Gold Coast and Carlton, kick a bit straighter and we win all those and we’d be 2 games clear in second, most teams would have those “what if” games.

Well, no. It doesn't work that way because for every goal you kick instead of that point, it goes straight back to the middle. The timeline changes, which means everything from then on changes.

Once you challenged us, we went bang-bang-bang-bang in the 4th and it blew out to 41 points. Game over. Don't pretend you were within a shot.

 

[BomberBoy123]

Well, no. It doesn't work that way because for every goal you kick instead of that point, it goes straight back to the middle. The timeline changes, which means everything from then on changes.

Once you challenged us, we went bang-bang-bang-bang in the 4th and it blew out to 41 points. Game over. Don't pretend you were within a shot.

I agree, I am just stating that old mate who wants to claim the Hawks could have won games they clearly lost then so could most teams.

 

[hk89]

Essendon could also say the same thing about matches with Collingwood, Gold Coast and Carlton, kick a bit straighter and we win all those and we’d be 2 games clear in second, most teams would have those “what if” games.

Well you can't expect to kick 17.5 every week In any case, that was my point. It isn't hard to play two or three what-ifs to get from 4th to 2nd by the 16th round. Having 13th being able to play only 3 what-ifs to get to get a hypothetical 2nd spot speaks to the insanely close season we've experienced.

Hawthorn haven't really had any impressive wins thus far, Port in Adelaide would have been nice, but didn't happen. Lions were in a form slump when we beat them, and have only come good since. We had a pretty tough draw at the start of the year which make us look worse than we probably were. Most likely we'll miss finals now, but I've enjoyed watching us win a few games.

Likewise, Essendon can't really point to many great wins either. At the moment I'd guess we'd almost go in favourites against Essendon if were we to play them tomorrow, which is odd given the wide ladder gap between them.

 

[hk89]

I agree, I am just stating that old mate who wants to claim the Hawks could have won games they clearly lost then so could most teams.

I'd also point out there is a difference between playing 'what-if' on situations like conceding two goals in the final 20 seconds of a game vs a match like Essendon vs Pies draw where you both had the same number of scoring shots, and might one or both sides might have missed late opportunities (like my Pies vs Hawks example). One has almost never happened in the history of the game, the other happens all the time.

Anyway, my point is not that one of the sides was more or less unlucky to be sitting where they are on the ladder, but that it is unusual for such large differences in ladder position to be down to only a very few outcomes that could have gone the other way with more luck/skill/experience.

 

[BomberBoy123]

I'd also point out there is a difference between playing 'what-if' on situations like conceding two goals in the final 20 seconds of a game vs a match like Essendon vs Pies draw where you both had the same number of scoring shots, and might one or both sides might have missed late opportunities (like my Pies vs Hawks example). One has almost never happened in the history of the game, the other happens all the time.

Anyway, my point is not that one of the sides was more or less unlucky to be sitting where they are on the ladder, but that it is unusual for such large differences in ladder position to be down to only a very few outcomes that could have gone the other way with more luck/skill/experience.

I am tipping the next 4 weeks will sort it out, I think the Hawks play 3 top 5 sides in a row coming up? I think we’ll see the gap between 3rd and 13th a little bit wider after that.