Rumour Who's going to the GC?

[Vader]

VFL isn't second its 3rd, they may have more AFL listed players, but thats just more blokes that at the time aren't upto AFL footy.

SANFL is 2nd.

Not what I meant. The VFL is the 2nd best competition in Victoria, it's on par with the other state leagues in SANFL & WAFL. Fitzroy are playing in another league below the VFL.

 

[relapse]

There's definitely a case for a team to be based on the GC. Whether it should be new team, or a transplanted Victorian team (North Melbourne, I'm looking at you) is entirely another matter. The AFL has made its bed, now it has to lie in it.

The case for GWS is much, much weaker. It's Rugby League heartland and they're going to have to use cardboard cutouts in the stands if they don't want the place looking completely empty. The case for a team in Tasmania is far more compelling, but such is the AFL's stupidity that GWS got the nod instead.

I totally agree with you, I think there is every chance that the Gold Coast will become a viable franchise and I think it is the right market for the AFL to target.

GWS though is a massive risk and there is a huge possibility that it could become a massive white elephant. I really cant see anything happening in the short term except weakening the Swans and the AFL having to pump hundreds of millions into a black hole.

I also think it would have been a far smarter idea for the Gold Coast to join in 2011 and Tassie in 2012, this would give the AFL a stable 18th team allowing them to focus 100% on GC and get it up and running successfully. GWS shouldnt even be on the cards IMO it should have been in about 8-10 years time (2020-2022) where the AFL look at GWS and possibly a 3rd WA side as the 19th and 20th franchises.

 

[King Elvis]

What are the chances that if the GWS side fails to attract any interest from the public, it's either folded into Sydney, or relocated to Tasmania?

 

[Vader]

What are the chances that if the GWS side is fails to attract any interest from the public, it's either folded into Sydney, or relocated to Tasmania?

The AFL appear committed to pursuing this folly to the bitter end. Just quietly, it's WHEN the GWS side fails to attract any interest, not IF. GWS are going to be a massive financial black hole, but the AFL seem determined to persevere with this massive display of stupidity.

 

[marvin]

Not what I meant. The VFL is the 2nd best competition in Victoria, it's on par with the other state leagues in SANFL & WAFL. Fitzroy are playing in another league below the VFL.

They are in the effectively the 3rd tier of that league as well. And one can make the argument with the money floating around some of the better suburban clubs (there's something like 8 ex-AFL players on the books at Balwyn in the Eastern league) that the top tiers of some of the local leagues would slot somewhere in the rankings above where Fitroy have lodged.

Having said that, it's not in the AFL's "interest" for the remnants of Fitzroy (or a similar club in the future) to be accommodated at the 2nd tier level. They want to maintain the view (illusion?) that the transplanted or merged club "is" Fitzroy, so that the majority of their supporters, and the $$$ they bring, aren't lost to the AFL level.

Had Fitzroy finished in the VFL in 1997, there's a fair chunk of their support base that would have migrated their interest to the VFL. (As a hypothetical analogy, imagine that our neighbours at Alberton no longer got propped up, but were moved to GWS. If Port Magpies proved viable, a lot of Power fans would become SANFL followers like the good old days. If Port Magpies were also folded, a lot more would have their supporting interest linked to GWS).

By allowing Fitzroy to die, or all but die back then, it's only the hardest of AFL-disaffected hard core fans that have stuck fast as Fitzroy fans through the last decade.

 

[ltdamn]

What are the chances that if the GWS side fails to attract any interest from the public, it's either folded into Sydney, or relocated to Tasmania?

Never. The AFL aren't starting GWS to gain support from the people who live in GWS right now, or even their children. They're aiming at the children of those children, a whole generation away, and getting them to consider playing AFL instead of NRL.

It really is a 30 year plan on the grandest scale. They won't care too much if GWS only pull 15,000 odd for the first 5 years or more. That's still better than an NRL game. They're aiming for 30,000 crowds 20-30 years down the line.

Worst thing for the NRL is, they can afford it.

 

[Vader]

Never. The AFL aren't starting GWS to gain support from the people who live in GWS right now, or even their children. They're aiming at the children of those children, a whole generation away, and getting them to consider playing AFL instead of NRL.

It really is a 30 year plan on the grandest scale. They won't care too much if GWS only pull 15,000 odd for the first 5 years or more. That's still better than an NRL game. They're aiming for 30,000 crowds 20-30 years down the line.

Worst thing for the NRL is, they can afford it.

The only way they're going to get 15,000 to a game is if 14,500 opposition supporters turn up.

 

[andrew23]

It reminds me of that Olympic show The Games that used to be on ABC. In one episode they build the 100m track too short so have to rebuild part of it and are going to wipe out the first four rows of seating.

They are all panicking because the first four rows are the most expensive seats.

John Clarke points out that there's still going to be a front row, even if they take out four rows of seats. "Who's sitting in front of me? You're not taking out the front four rows, you're taking out the back four rows."

Hah I could see this happening at Adelaide Oval.
Great show

 

[cmndstab]

The only way they're going to get 15,000 to a game is if 14,500 opposition supporters turn up.

Port don't get much more than that at the moment and they're a traditional team in a footy-mad city with two teams. If GWS struggle on-field initially - and they almost certainly will - sub-10k crowds will be the norm.

 

[Riggy1]

Port don't get much more than that at the moment and they're a traditional team in a footy-mad city with two teams. If GWS struggle on-field initially - and they almost certainly will - sub-10k crowds will be the norm.

there are alot of ex-pats in Sydney, I'd expect with the exception of Port, Freo and Gold Coast, all other teams can drag 2,000+ just from the Sydney base
add a few hundred travelling fans, and most away teams will have 2,500 alone

add the fact that SCG is that bloody hard to get too, that they can perhaps drag 5,000 western fans just for the footy just because Homebush is easier to get to.

I'd expect 7,500 minimum, then there is the couple of thousand casual veiwers in Western Sydney (about 20,000 West Sydney residents hold the 3 day match pass to ANZ Stadium,)

they're going to go decent in crowds tbh, SYdney may lose 3-7k though

I honestly think that GWS will have bigger crowds than Gold Coast, even though Gold Coast will be better.

Oh, and fwiw - I think it's Moran that Gold Coast will get their hands on

 

[Macjoe]

... The AFL are ... aiming at the children of those children, a whole generation away, and getting them to consider playing AFL instead of NRL.

It really is a 30 year plan on the grandest scale. They won't care too much if GWS only pull 15,000 odd for the first 5 years or more. That's still better than an NRL game. They're aiming for 30,000 crowds 20-30 years down the line.

Worst thing for the NRL is, they can afford it.

The only way they're going to get 15,000 to a game is if 14,500 opposition supporters turn up.

Port don't get much more than that at the moment and they're a traditional team in a footy-mad city with two teams. If GWS struggle on-field initially - and they almost certainly will - sub-10k crowds will be the norm.

Vader, Stabby - I have little personal knowledge of Sydney, and maybe you guys have. Vader, you are closer to Sydney than I am to Adelaide by 100kms, so maybe you do know what will happen.

But Sydney's population is nearly 4.3million, that's 600,000 more than (10 team + VFL and affliates) Melbourne, a whole Newcastle worth bigger. It's 4 times the size of Adelaide.

The AFL is offering that LARGE population base an alternative to Rugby, soccer or the Swans. Sure, millions will follow rugby or soccer - BUT that still leaves millions unsatisfied. Many newcomers will stick to the sports they always knew, but some will be looking for a uniquely Australian sport to match all the other breaks with tradition they are making. Yes, it will be small percentages, but it will be small percentages of a huge base. 15,000 is less than 0.4%

I will be very surprised if GWS initial support is not around that 15,000 Itdamm mentioned, and in a generation that will probably climb to the 30,000 or more mentioned. Maybe not, but it is a huge market, and the game does suck you in.

 

[The Dice Man]

Exactly.

They already watch the games on TV; that's all the AFL are concerned about.

When I was up at the GC recently (lovely place btw), I didn't see a single footy oval (apart from Carrara stadium). Funnily though, they had the Crows v Bulldogs Friday night game about half an hour ahead of Adelaide and Foxtel on FTA TV. It will be a tough gig trying to promote AFL there but it is such a growth area and with quite a few expat Vics and Croweaters up there (Darren Pfeiffer lol), it shouldn't be a total basket case. It might start an interesting rivalry with Brisbane.

GWS on the other hand...I'm not convinced.

Funny you say this. I notice more and more often the amount of Aussie Rules 'Goals' on the coast. Ive lived here for just under ten years as an ex-pat Vicco. Id have to ask where did you stay, when did you arrive and how did you spend your time?

If you got off at Coolangatta airport and stayed in Surfers you wouldnt even have seen a Rugby field on your travels.

My ex had a son who was mad keen on Aussie Rules, and goes to the same school Guy McKennas kids do. He wasnt interested in NRL even though his dad took him to Titan games. Was always hasseling me about going to kick the footy.

He goes to quite an exclusive private school, and I notice alot of 'point posts' around such schools.... not that I hang out at schools,... was just my duty in being a defacto.



Dont be mistaken thinking you know the territory by a 5 minute trip. AFL is a growing force here.

 

[Huntercrow]

The only way they're going to get 15,000 to a game is if 14,500 opposition supporters turn up.

The last Crows game in Sydney (Remember Porplyzia's 5 goals?) attracted at least 10000 Crows supporters.
The support from Adelaide fans was enormous.
Don't worry I'll be at every Crows game played in NSW and so will many others. Probably including yourself Vader!
The crowds for GWS games will partly depend on their draw.
If they draw Freo, Crows, Port, West Coast, Bris, GC17, they will be lucky to get 20000 but a Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn will draw substantially more.
Also will depend on the media coverage in Sydney.
They have definitely enjoyed their share so far and the first few games will draw big crowds (The NRL will go nuts) before any novelty wears off.

Western Sydney has a huge population and I wouldn't be surprised to see their 25000 seat stadium full most weeks.
But this still depends on the publicity they can draw within the Sydney Media.
Folau was a huge signing not just because of his athletic ability but his ability to attract media attention and everyone in Sydney wants to see what happens.
Also imagine the interest there will be for the very first Derby between Kevin Sheedy and the Swans.

The AFL have committed so much money to see this work I can't see GWS running out on the field resembling the Bears of 87.
They will be more than competitive as anything less would be a waste of time and investment.
I think GWS could be much bigger than the AFL hope for and the NRL fear.
But the AFL have to be mindful that it's no good GWS just pinching supporters from the Swans they have to create new supporters within the diehard League fans in Western Sydney.
That will be their challenge.

 

[Mismatched]

Oh, and fwiw - I think it's Moran that Gold Coast will get their hands on

BTW Moran is signed on with us until the end of next year, so if he is to go, he'll have to be traded.

Funny you say this. I notice more and more often the amount of Aussie Rules 'Goals' on the coast. Ive lived here for just under ten years as an ex-pat Vicco. Id have to ask where did you stay, when did you arrive and how did you spend your time?

If you got off at Coolangatta airport and stayed in Surfers you wouldnt even have seen a Rugby field on your travels.

My ex had a son who was mad keen on Aussie Rules, and goes to the same school Guy McKennas kids do. He wasnt interested in NRL even though his dad took him to Titan games. Was always hasseling me about going to kick the footy.

He goes to quite an exclusive private school, and I notice alot of 'point posts' around such schools.... not that I hang out at schools,... was just my duty in being a defacto.



Dont be mistaken thinking you know the territory by a 5 minute trip. AFL is a growing force here.

Yep, plenty of footy ovals, just not where 99% of tourists would ever really venture on their holidays.

 

[Vader]

The last Crows game in Sydney (Remember Porplyzia's 5 goals?) attracted at least 10000 Crows supporters.
The support from Adelaide fans was enormous.
Don't worry I'll be at every Crows game played in NSW and so will many others. Probably including yourself Vader!
The crowds for GWS games will partly depend on their draw.
If they draw Freo, Crows, Port, West Coast, Bris, GC17, they will be lucky to get 20000 but a Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn will draw substantially more.
Also will depend on the media coverage in Sydney.
They have definitely enjoyed their share so far and the first few games will draw big crowds (The NRL will go nuts) before any novelty wears off.

Western Sydney has a huge population and I wouldn't be surprised to see their 25000 seat stadium full most weeks.
But this still depends on the publicity they can draw within the Sydney Media.
Folau was a huge signing not just because of his athletic ability but his ability to attract media attention and everyone in Sydney wants to see what happens.
Also imagine the interest there will be for the very first Derby between Kevin Sheedy and the Swans.

The AFL have committed so much money to see this work I can't see GWS running out on the field resembling the Bears of 87.
They will be more than competitive as anything less would be a waste of time and investment.
I think GWS could be much bigger than the AFL hope for and the NRL fear.
But the AFL have to be mindful that it's no good GWS just pinching supporters from the Swans they have to create new supporters within the diehard League fans in Western Sydney.
That will be their challenge.

A few things here...

I was at that game in 2008. I even got my ugly mug on national TV (albeit Foxtel) while I was celebrating one of Porps' goals. There weren't 10000 Crows fans there, not even close. The total attendance for the game was only 26260, with Crows fans probably numbering about 3-4000.

I will attend all Crows games played in Sydney or Canberra (noting that GWS are planning on playing 4 games per year at Manuka - though that probably includes at least one MMC game). I'm sure fans of other clubs would do likewise. However, all of these people are going to support their own club - none of them are going to support GWS.

If they are scheduled to play the likes of Adelaide, West Coast, Freo, Port, Brisbane, North, Melbourne, Footscray or GC, then they will be lucky to draw 5000 - with 80% of those being opposition supporters and 10% being neutrals. Their only chance of drawing 20000 would be against Collingwood and Essendon - and 90% of those would be opposition supporters and 5% neutrals.

In any case, you're only supporting my argument - that a crowd of 15000 at a GWS game would have to include 14500 opposition supporters! Nowhere in your argument have you given me any reason to believe that GWS will have supporters of their own at their home games.

It wasn't that long ago that the Swans were unable to draw more than 5-6000 to a game. These figures were commonplace for their home games through the mid-90s before they took off in 1996, becoming fashionable in the process. Prior to 1996 they were almost completely ignored by the media, especially the media in Sydney.

GWS have been largely ignored by the media in Sydney, other than the signing of Folau. Nothing much is going to change there. AFL rates well below the Rugby League and Rugby Union in Sydney, but ahead of Soccer (except for Socceroos games). GWS won't get any attention until they start to become successful - even then, I doubt they'll be able to convert many fans.

GWS is Rugby League heartland. Nobody, but nobody, has any interest in AFL out there. Most of Sydney's support seems to come from the eastern suburbs, possibly influenced by the geographical location of the SCG.

GWS might have a better team than the Bears did in 87, but their level of support will be the same - or, more likely, even lower. At least the Bears could rely on some level of support from expats out of SA/Vic/WA. GWS won't even have this luxury.

 

[McCavity]

GWS is Rugby League heartland. Nobody, but nobody, has any interest in AFL out there. Most of Sydney's support seems to come from the eastern suburbs, possibly influenced by the geographical location of the SCG.

I lived in Sydney for 5 years from 96 until 2001. Vader is spot on with his observations.

GWS, that is everything west of Concord is Rugby League country. There is absolutely no interest in Aussie Rules out there. In fact, you're likely to cop a belting from ugly toothless blokes in blue singlets if you dare to profess your love of all things Sherrin out that way.

There are pockets of support though - the north west from Pennant Hills to Baulkham Hills, the eastern suburbs and the inner north shore. Reason being, they're fairly affluent areas with significant numbers of Victorian, South Aussie and West Aussie expats.

GWS is going to be a far tougher nut to crack than either Brisbane or the Swans ever were (or GC for that matter).

 

[aneale]

well if the launch, guernsey design and team song isn't enough to get uncontracted players screaming back to their clubs i don't know what is.

At least our hideous logo is only one jumper.

 

[Vader]

The song is awful... but it's still better than Freo's or Port's.

 

[StillCrowing]

That song sure is bad. Then their logo looks similar to Tip Top Sunblest. And it's a bit alarming how similar the Crows away guernsey looks to the Gold Coast clash guernsey. Did anyone else think that?

 

[Vader]

Red blue gold. Original

Fitzroy were using those colours long before Adelaide joined the AFL. It's not like we have a monopoly on them.

That song sure is bad. Then their logo looks similar to Tip Top Sunblest. And it's a bit alarming how similar the Crows away guernsey looks to the Gold Coast clash guernsey. Did anyone else think that?

It does.. but it's not like we'll ever be wearing our clash strip against them playing in theirs, so where's the problem? Adelaide basically copied the Hawthorn & West Coast clash jumpers, so it's somewhat hypocritical for us to bag them for copying ours.

 

[Briggzy]

The song is awful... but it's still better than Freo's or Port's.

I honestly don't mind the song, but I guess that isn't hard considering we've been subjected to the tripe that is "Freo: Way to go", "We've got the power to win" and my favourite, "We're flying hiiiiiiiigggghhhhhhhh".

Bock wouldn't attract the ladies in those guernseys, I'm confident he'll stay now.

 

[afc1991]

Fitzroy were using those colours long before Adelaide joined the AFL. It's not like we have a monopoly on them.

Yeah, clubs having the same colours is only an issue if its black and white.

I dont mind so much, they're really red and yellow. Still I think its a dumb choice of colours, given that Brissy wear maroon blue and gold, and don the old roys red gold and blue.

 

[King Elvis]

The Suns?

Shit that's lame.

 

[rooboy]

The Suns?

Shit that's lame.

I don't mind it at all. You Adelaidians just don't understand the idea of the sun ( in the winter ).

 

[jo172]

I don't mind it at all. You Adelaidians just don't understand the idea of the sun ( in the winter ).

I have issues with the plural.

Why is there more than one sun?