Analysis Why pick 4 is the most important selection the club will have in the next decade.

[MrBarry]

If we miss this one, then we miss getting good service from this selection when Dawson and Rankine are at their peak, which is the next 3 years, before they start to tail off.

Rankine trail off in 3 years wtf.... He's just turned 24. He's got 10 years ahead of him.

 

[Crow till I die]

So much double guessing going on, any of the 4 players will be excellent and we are getting one of them unless our team get too cute by half and reach for a player

 

[StonesThrow]

Get Smith

Smith better disposal. Draper quicker, more agile, stronger and more intensity both offensively and defensively. Always running hard and at high speed.

I really like (and would be happy with) both. Draper has way too many weapons to be a B grade player though. If he had 15% better disposal he'd probably be a strong argument for number 1 pick. I think he's going at 100 miles an hour all the time and that can affect his disposal, but I wouldn't say he lacks composure. Watching the u18 and sanfl games, I think he improved his decision making and especially handballing.

I also don't think draper's balance is talked up enough. His ability to keep his feet or bounce up off the ground and accelerate is outstanding.

 

[FR0GGY]

Is next year still untouched by tassie?

 

[adelaidecrows]

Is next year still untouched by tassie?

They are 2028 arent they? I think if they go through the same process as Gold Coast and GWS, end of 2026 they will have access to local talent that can play for them probably in the VFL in 2027 then at the end of 2027 they hit the actual draft and have exclusive access to current AFL talent to lure. But officially I dont think they interfere with the draft until 2027 that is the year you dont want to be bottoming out. Which will be super hilarious if Port bottom out around then.

 

[George Kramer]

Smith better disposal. Draper quicker, more agile, stronger and more intensity both offensively and defensively. Always running hard and at high speed.

I really like (and would be happy with) both. Draper has way too many weapons to be a B grade player though. If he had 15% better disposal he'd probably be a strong argument for number 1 pick. I think he's going at 100 miles an hour all the time and that can affect his disposal, but I wouldn't say he lacks composure. Watching the u18 and sanfl games, I think he improved his decision making and especially handballing.

I also don't think draper's balance is talked up enough. His ability to keep his feet or bounce up off the ground and accelerate is outstanding.

Smith looked quick in his highlights, also looked like he makes better decisions and I prefer better disposal in a player, especially one who finds the ball as much as Smith does

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Smith better disposal. Draper quicker, more agile, stronger and more intensity both offensively and defensively. Always running hard and at high speed.

I really like (and would be happy with) both. Draper has way too many weapons to be a B grade player though. If he had 15% better disposal he'd probably be a strong argument for number 1 pick. I think he's going at 100 miles an hour all the time and that can affect his disposal, but I wouldn't say he lacks composure. Watching the u18 and sanfl games, I think he improved his decision making and especially handballing.

I also don't think draper's balance is talked up enough. His ability to keep his feet or bounce up off the ground and accelerate is outstanding.

Draper isn’t more agile than smith , he’s quicker and has more burst speed

If you watch smith closely he has very similar looking agility to a Zac butters , his sideways movements buys him time and gets him through traffic

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Smith looked quick in his highlights, also looked like he makes better decisions and I prefer better disposal in a player, especially one who finds the ball as much as Smith does

Smith agility absolutely elite and he has just enough speed but definitely not the speed of Draper

But you’re spot on Re decision making , that’s his absolute elite trait too

We have alot of guys that just kick it to intercept markers , I could see smith finding more creative ways to get around that and using different angles

 

[Mutineer]

safety beach is a long way from the melbourne private school scene

but im with you i want lalor or jagga but i bet theyre both gone by our pick

our only hope is richmond want langford or north want tauru and dont trade down

HUH!
Scotch College/Oakleigh Chargers.

 

[George Kramer]

Smith agility absolutely elite and he has just enough speed but definitely not the speed of Draper

But you’re spot on Re decision making , that’s his absolute elite trait too

We have alot of guys that just kick it to intercept markers , I could see smith finding more creative ways to get around that and using different angles

And that’s why we love Soligo. Good decision maker who doesn’t panic with good disposal.

Just watched both highlights again and generally Draper’s handballs put teammates under the pump, Smiths handballs put it to advantage of his teammates. Same with kicking.

 

[baldandbroke]

We haven't been in this situation for a while!! Where in reality we have one spot and one good pick ...

I think we are all trying to work out how we can "game the system" and somehow maximise what we have - when really there is going to be 1 or 2 options in front of us on draft night when it gets to our pick.

There are two things we could in theory do:

(1) we could move up by trading in our F1 - but jeez that feels like a risky strategy. How can we be sure that THE player we want is THE man? I'm not certain how anyone could know that? The top 5, hell even the top 10, look pretty impressive as far as draftees go - what happens from here has too many ifs buts and maybes.

(2) we could split the pick into two first rounders and cut an extra player to make space - all indications are that we aren't going to do that. We aren't generally a club that takes those risks or is that brutal with it's contracted players. If the club somehow believed that Dodson was essential, we would have made moves already to accommodate that. Even we wouldn't take a project ruck with pick 4.

So, as boring as it sounds, we will pick the best rated midfielder on the board when it gets to our pick ... pat ourselves on the back (for finishing 15th and getting pick 4) and see what happens.

Actually something we as supporters have been crying out for from the draft - a top end elite mid.

 

[Danger in Texas]

And that’s why we love Soligo. Good decision maker who doesn’t panic with good disposal.

Just watched both highlights again and generally Draper’s handballs put teammates under the pump, Smiths handballs put it to advantage of his teammates. Same with kicking.

I think Smith would take about a year to become a full-time mid, given how lightly built he is right now (I’d play him wing/part-time mid in year 1), but wherever he’s played he’ll rack up the touches from day dot

His mix of athleticism/spatial awareness/read of the play is special

I wouldn’t be upset at all if Draper was the last one left at our pick, though

 

[StonesThrow]

Draper isn’t more agile than smith , he’s quicker and has more burst speed

If you watch smith closely he has very similar looking agility to a Zac butters , his sideways movements buys him time and gets him through traffic

I don't agree. Draper's ability to step around players in the Sanfl was elite.

I rate Smith in this area as well. Not saying he isn't good at it.

 

[StonesThrow]

Smith looked quick in his highlights, also looked like he makes better decisions and I prefer better disposal in a player, especially one who finds the ball as much as Smith does

I too prefer better disposal, that's why I would like smith as well. Just think draper has way too many other weapons that he's better at than anyone in the draft and that our side lacks.

 

[Coopers]

I really like (and would be happy with) both. Draper has way too many weapons to be a B grade player though. If he had 15% better disposal he'd probably be a strong argument for number 1 pick. I think he's going at 100 miles an hour all the time and that can affect his disposal, but I wouldn't say he lacks composure. Watching the u18 and sanfl games, I think he improved his decision making and especially handballing.

Sounds like... Keays.

I am 90% sure Ben's inner monologue is just a constant screaming noise.

As well as Ben played last year, I'd like an even higher ceiling from pick 4.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Sounds like... Keays.

I am 90% sure Ben's inner monologue is just a constant screaming noise.

As well as Ben played last year, I'd like an even higher ceiling from pick 4.

He’s got a lot more poise than Keays. Cleaner read of the tap, more calculated in his decision making (even if it doesn’t always come off), and is a faster straight-line runner

 

[50BC]

They are 2028 arent they? I think if they go through the same process as Gold Coast and GWS, end of 2026 they will have access to local talent that can play for them probably in the VFL in 2027 then at the end of 2027 they hit the actual draft and have exclusive access to current AFL talent to lure. But officially I dont think they interfere with the draft until 2027 that is the year you dont want to be bottoming out. Which will be super hilarious if Port bottom out around then.

Very sadly, Isolating out Tassie talent in 2026 will make stuff all difference probably to the integrity of the draft. The game at community level in Tassie is in very poor shape at the moment given its an Aussie Rules heartland state. Let's hope a Tassie based team reverses that and we see Tassie growing AFL players again.

 

[BunjiMac]

He’s got a lot more poise than Keays. Cleaner read of the tap, more calculated in his decision making (even if it doesn’t always come off), and is a faster straight-line runner

We are still lacking great 1 on 1 players with agility and burst speed out of the middle.

I think it's more than just winning a contested possession which is counted when the ball is in dispute, it's actually someone who can win 1 on 1 duels.

Sid can absolutely win more 1 on 1 duels and can burst away.

This is a term borrowed from soccer obviously, but I think duels are a really important measure and something we should look at more in AFL.

 

[Mutineer]

Very sadly, Isolating out Tassie talent in 2026 will make stuff all difference probably to the integrity of the draft. The game at community level in Tassie is in very poor shape at the moment given its an Aussie Rules heartland state. Let's hope a Tassie based team reverses that and we see Tassie growing AFL players again.

In recent years you could argue Tassie does pretty well vs SA population wise.

#2 Colby McKercher
#6 Ryley Sanders
#17 James Leake
#62 Arie Schoenmaker
#30 Lachlan Cowan
#36 Tom McCallum
#20 Sam Banks

 

[Boundryump]

And in the end we'll draft a back man

 

[Crow till I die]

I think Smith would take about a year to become a full-time mid, given how lightly built he is right now (I’d play him wing/part-time mid in year 1), but wherever he’s played he’ll rack up the touches from day dot

His mix of athleticism/spatial awareness/read of the play is special

I wouldn’t be upset at all if Draper was the last one left at our pick, though

Its why I would be trying to set up a deal with Richmond that if they have not traded up with North, on draft night if Smith is there at pick 4, to trade that pick to Richmond for 6 and we swap F1's next year. Richmond might bite if its Smith available having been into him for a long time and if we could somehow wangle that F1 from them, its Sharp for us next year and probably Langford this year - who wouldn't want that?

Its along shot, but getting our hands on their F1 would be unreal business whilst still keeping inside the top 10 of this draft.

Edit. Obviously if we could not do a deal like that, then take Smith and he will be a fantastic get. I am just casting forward

 

[Danger in Texas]

Its why I would be trying to set up a deal with Richmond that if they have not traded up with North, on draft night if Smith is there at pick 4, to trade that pick to Richmond for 6 and we swap F1's next year. Richmond might bite if its Smith available having been into him for a long time and if we could somehow wangle that F1 from them, its Sharp for us next year and probably Langford this year - who wouldn't want that?

Its along shot, but getting our hands on their F1 would be unreal business whilst still keeping inside the top 10 of this draft.

Edit. Obviously if we could not do a deal like that, then take Smith and he will be a fantastic get. I am just casting forward

Just take Smith. Langford a decent amount behind him as a prospect in my view

And I think being able to obtain Sharp (if he’s consensus #1) is going to be beyond our capability

 

[crow2crow]

Tassie is about to come in and compromise several drafts, so it's time to nail Pick 4, piss off Nicks, and win a flag.

We need a better coach and a better ruck or we arent winning anything...

as for tassie, i still reckon north's list will be relocated there last minute. also it's absolutely crickets on tassie at the moment. north supporters sorry in advance.

 

[119others]

I would prefer we take a Victorian. SA's draft track record for top picks is not great

Unless I have forgotten more since 2018, top picks

Elite - JHF, Rankine,
Likely elite - TT, Wanganeen-Milera, Philippou
Questions out but have shown quality - Pedlar, Luko
Dud - Stephens

Not too shabby IMO

 

[crow2crow]

Draper isn’t more agile than smith , he’s quicker and has more burst speed

If you watch smith closely he has very similar looking agility to a Zac butters , his sideways movements buys him time and gets him through traffic

jagga is definitely more what we need than draper. what you said plus the little deft kicks of butters. the spot ups which we seem incapable of doing.