Play Nice Will Geelong win the 2016 premiership?

[manboob]

I also like how he plays forward - he can take a grab - him and Stanley will float between CHF and ruck with Clark doing a bit of work here and there.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

Yes I can. Geelong have excellent depth across the ground. I see Port and Geelong as capable of running over the top of the Hawks.

 

[JD Tomahawk]

Will be the biggest choke ever if they don't win it next year.

That's a huge statement!
Same could be said of the hawks with how supreme they are and have been.
I wouldn't expect the team to just come out firing on all cylinders from rd one. With such a big change to the best 22 I think we won't see the best of them until the half way mark. If they make finals next year that's a pass. Top 4 would be great obviously.
Nothing will beat the powers chokes of the naughties. Or cats of 08.

 

[azzacat]

Selwood and Henderson are spuds. One man does not make a team.

Yet your club insisted he was worth a first rounder

 

[The 747]

Who knows really, but I am impressed that my club set a clear plan, followed through and delivered on the plan.

 

[catters078]

I hope so..

I cant see any interstate team getting near the hawks on grand final day at the mcg. Bar 25 good mins from freo in 2013 hawthorn has owned 3 straight grand finals against interstate teams

I think it's going to take a victorian team to beat them...and north, geelong and maybe richmond are the only teams who can do it.

 

[Mitch3233]

Tentatively hoping for a top 6 finish, and honestly not making finals will be a failure. Barring catastophic injuries we have a list that should at the very least take us past Adelaide and into the 8.

Don't seriously see us a geniuine flag threat for 2016, but the signs are looking good for a real tilt at a 2017 flag.

 

[FISTO]

*Spoiler alert, long post ahead..

I understand the club wanting to rejuvenate the list and excite the fans with the faint glimmer of immediate success by recruiting players that fill a need in terms of age and positions.

How ever I feel that our recruitment strategy has been completely short sighted and misguided and that we have gone all in by throwing away the next two drafts on one genuine star and three completely underwhelming players coming off of a poor year or years due to injury, form and apparently being sad at playing for a shit club (in Hendo's case). I also don't understand Scooters logic in leaving a club where he is a fringe player to join another club where is he a fringe player. Our or logic for picking up him thus pushing out one of our younger players who need AFL experience.

The sense of hope and expectation that the recruitment team has been trying to build has fallen completely flat on me. Usually I'm a very cynical person but not towards the footy club, not for a number of years. They've had nothing but my complete faith and trust but the first time in a number of years I'm disappointed with the direction we've chosen to go and wouldn't have been if we stayed the course with our rebuild.

Our biggest issue last season was injuries. The best way to rectify that is not by recruiting 2 players with injury history.
Also recruiting a player who was one of the poorest in a wooden spoon team reeks of desperation to me. It's okay if we're giving up fair value, but to pay overs with a 1st round pick is the most disappointing move we've made in years IMO.

Although Dawson was sub VFL standard, I haven't seen anything from Smith for years to suggest we have improved our ruck stocks. I thought 1st ruck was Stanley's role anyway? Mitch Clark and Vardy are both in the same team when fit meaning one is second choice and the other third? Smith is 1st drop I take it? The amount of time those 4 have spent collectively injured recently is such a major concern.

I feel that we would have been better served shopping around the pick we traded for Hendo for a good small/medium defensive forward if we were Hell bent on going for a quick fix. I believe that to be the biggest hole in our current best side. We paid overs and they would have eventually caved and taken a 2nd because in truth it is all he is worth if you consider his most current output. With that said I do see a role for him in 2016 before taking over from Lonners full time, assuming he retires following 2016.

I'm not sad about Walker or Jansen leaving, although I feel we traded Walker for unders which seems to be a common theme when we trade. Gore is acceptable considering what we got back. Kel and Stokes were cooked IMO. I felt like Stevie J has more to give for at least 1 more year and has been the departure that has disappointed me. He was good towards the back end of the season and 'bleeds blue and white'. The only way it works out is if we get a full season out of Menzel, but that's a big ask. If we're going all in by trading for players who can contribute now, then surely him staying on another year makes nothing but complete sense. No one else that left rates a mention. On a whole the players we let go have been good moves. The only pick I'm seriously disappointed about is next year's first considering we paid overs on a player that isn't worth the risk IMO.

Now to what I think of the chances of Geelong in 2016.

First off let me do my best 22, looks like fun.

Enright - Lonergan - Kolo
Thurlow - Taylor - Mackie
Guthrie - J Selwood - Duncan
Lang - M Clark - Motlop
Menzel - Hawkins - Vardy
Stanley - Dangerfield - Blicavs

Henderson - Caddy - Bartel - Gregson

VFL Murdoch, GHS, S Selwood, Cockatoo, Smith, Smedts, Bews, Kersten, Cowan

Danger, Selwood and Duncan/Blicavs is probably the best starting midfield in the league. Our depth through there is good, not great. If Caddy and/or Guthrie can take the next step then I think we potentially have the best and most balanced mid group in the comp. Our ruck stocks are the big ? for me as I feel that Stanley deserves a shot at first ruck, if his body isn't up to it then it has to be Smith. Smith should only be in the side when he is the #1 ruck option ie if Stanley is out of form or injured. Either way, it doesn't excite me.
This midfield group has potential to be every bit as strong as the group we had through '07-'11. I guess SSelwood is our new #1 run with player instead of Guthrie now.

Our back line is still very very good. The injection of a bit of youth with Thurlow, Kolo and to a lesser extent Bews gives me hope that it will remain good when the guns retire and I'd like to see us continue to develop those 3 next year. I'm worried what we're going to do with Hendo because he is no better then Lonergan or Taylor and Kolo is our 3rd tall. Henderson's inclusion into the back line leaves us unbalanced unless he is purely 1st drop if one of the talls are injured. Start him on the bench and rotate with a big whether its forward or back needing a spell.

Forward line is my biggest concern. Hawkins was very average last season (with a good reason, his mum + no decent talls staying healthy to support). He has to improve and it needs to be substantial if we're anywhere near top 4. He can only play one position which hurts, but being that he commands the best tall back man it really leaves it open for Vardy and M Clark to have big years if they can stay fit. That is significantly better looking then Walker/Kersten, but their bodies are made of glass. Our small forwards are pretty much mids masquerading as fowards. If Menzel can play most games and Motlop is used as a forward who sometimes plays mid then its not so bad. Johnno playing alongside those 5 when all are fit would have made a scary forward 6. Menzel obviously takes on the permanent stay at small/medium genius forward but there's probably two spots for rotating mids due to the lack of class small forwards we have.

I'd imagine spots for Hendo, Bartel, Caddy, Gregson off the bench. Bartel is the one I'm having most difficulty placing in the side and I guess would be best used as a rotating half back/mid where Gregson can go forward, Hendo swap with a tall and Caddy rotating where ever needed. I thought Bartel was pretty poor last season and is less use to the side going forward then Stevie J,.

I want to see Gregson, Lang, Thurlow, Kolo etc have more time develop because I think we should be focusing on building for 2017 rather then winning in 2016 and I feel like Scott would be of the same mindset. I'd love to see Cocky play every game, but there just isn't a spot for him in the 22 at full strength. If a running player or small forward is out then he is first in, if an inside player is out then S Selwood is first man in. Bews first man in in a small/medium back is out. GHS who I think is good is way down the list with Murdoch and Cowan. Smedts and Kersten VFL all year unless things go very wrong. Z Smith interchangeable with Stanley based on form/injuries. At full strength, that looks like amazing depth.

If the club decide **** development and play Kolo, Thurlow, Lang, Gregson etc in the VFL then I think we're a premiership threat given I think there are only 3 genuinely good teams in the competition. This absolutely hinges on the complete opposite luck with injuries that we've had recently. If that does happen we expose ourselves to our best kids wanting to leave which is something I'd rather not risk considering I truly believe we could be elite within 2-3 years if we continue to develop what young talent we do have.

On a whole I think we're climbing 3-4 spots next year and that's mainly Danger alone having that affect by turning us into a team that can win contested footy and some clearances which will be nice for a change. If we have a reasonable run with our schedule and injuries that could easily change to be top 4 potential. I've used the word injury almost a million times in this post and there is good reason for it considering the recent history of the currently listed players.

If everything goes well - 3rd
Most likely - 6th

 

[Saint]

Perhaps the cats have recognised that with free agency, they can do better than the draft, which is a legitimate strategy, especially if they don't expect to have a pick in the top 8 any time soon.

There's no point drafting somebody like Cockatoo if you don't have the chance to give them game time. If the cats have 20 yr olds from previous drafts lingering in the VFL, there's not much need to add more to the list, especially if the alternatives are people like Dangerfield, Henderson and Smith who can have an impact from Round 1 in the positions the cats are lacking.

I'm sure the Cats have thought through the options, and if they have any picks left, I've got a Carlisle and a bridge to sell them.

I think they and Port will be fighting for top 4 with easier draws for both this year and Sydney seeming to be falling apart at the seams.

Hawthorn, Port, Dockers, Cats, WCE, Sydney, Kangas.

I think the hawks would be a lock for top 4, pending the form of Mitchell, the rest will fight it out for the remaining 3 spots (even if they happen to finish above the hawks).

 

[floodbuster]

Can't see Geelong being a serious threat, their greatness was based on a large group of awesome players being there all at the right age none of those players have been replaced in the last couple of years. Before anyone says Dangerfield, I feel the Crows have a better list and they couldn't make the top 4 with Dangerfield having his best year.

 

[marty36]

Cats will finish 6th if they can get away with using 32 players use 36 or more and they will be 11th. Huge risk oo giving away their depth players but on the other side their best 22 seems good. Excpetionally strong midfield will compensate for lacking up forward and defence. Not a premiership threat.

 

[DanA]

I think Geelong potentially have the best backline in the league. I don't get why everybody is so down on it.

 

[marty36]

I think Geelong potentially have the best backline in the league. I don't get why everybody is so down on it.

They look reasonable but percentages say if you are close to 30 or over, chances are you want be playing a full season due to injury 4 out of 6 are in that category.

 

[DanA]

They look reasonable but percentages say if you are close to 30 or over, chances are you want be playing a full season due to injury 4 out of 6 are in that category.

Guthrie (23) Henderson (25) Kolodjashnij (20)
Thurlow (21) Taylor (29) Murdoch (23)

That potentially could be our backline if all these over 30's were missing, Thurlow was nominated for the rising star and played well, Kolo I think showed a lot but I'd rather have Enright and Mackie in there if possible. The selection of the older guys I don't think is out of necessity, we can afford to rest them if we want to and not have our defense fall apart. It's really only Harry Taylor we rely on. I'm not sure what Scott will do with our midfield which seems to have too many, maybe it's not Guthrie that's moved into defense, S.Selwood has played a bit down back as well. Really a lot is up in the air, our new found midfield depth opens up a lot of possibilities for our defense and forwardline. Enough that it's hard to write them off at this stage.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Still 12-24months away for mine but they are doing their mini build amazingly well. Probably need more depth to be a serious threat next season.

 

[marty36]

Guthrie (23) Henderson (25) Kolodjashnij (20)
Thurlow (21) Taylor (29) Murdoch (23)

That potentially could be our backline if all these over 30's were missing, Thurlow was nominated for the rising star and played well, Kolo I think showed a lotbut I'd rather have Enright and Mackie in there if possible, they are still very good players but I don't think we are relying on anyone bar perhaps Harry Taylor. Maybe S.Selwood plays a bit down back as well. A lot is up in the air, our new found midfield depth opens up a lot of possibilities for our defense and forwardline.

As soon as you start switching and swapping the backline it has issues until it adjusts, time has shown keep as many as the back 6 together and the more succesfull it will be, you could bring a number of players in against Mackie,Enright and Lonegran, but not as reliable.

 

[DanA]

As soon as you start switching and swapping the backline it has issues until it adjusts, time has shown keep as many as the back 6 together and the more succesfull it will be, you could bring a number of players in against Mackie,Enright and Lonegran, but not as reliable.

This feels obtuse.

There is simply no history of Geelong defenders missing games. Mackie missed games for the first time in a decade, Lonergan lost a kidney almost a decade ago, other than that absolutely nothing.

In 2015:
Guthrie (21 games) Lonergan (19 games) Mackie (15 games)
Enright (21 games) Taylor (21 games) Thurlow (19 games)

* Guthrie played three seasons along side Enright, Taylor, Lonergan and Mackie before shifting to midfield.
* Thurlow will be a 4th year player, only ever been as a defender for us.

Also played in defense:
Murdoch: 6 games in 2015.
Kolodjashnij: 9 games in 2015
Bews: 16 games in 2015

That's a defense that has a lot of experience together. How long do you think it'll take Henderson to learn to be a lock down KPD in this system?

 

[Sttew]

This feels obtuse.

There is simply no history of Geelong defenders missing games. Mackie missed games for the first time in a decade, Lonergan lost a kidney almost a decade ago, other than that absolutely nothing.

In 2015:
Guthrie (21 games) Lonergan (19 games) Mackie (15 games)
Enright (21 games) Taylor (21 games) Thurlow (19 games)

* Guthrie played three seasons along side Enright, Taylor, Lonergan and Mackie before shifting to midfield.
* Thurlow will be a 4th year player, only ever been as a defender for us.

Also played in defense:
Murdoch: 6 games in 2015.
Kolodjashnij: 9 games in 2015
Bews: 16 games in 2015

That's a defense that has a lot of experience together. How long do you think it'll take Henderson to learn to be a lock down KPD in this system?

Look how quickly Jarred Rivers slotted into Geelong's defence. It was like he'd been part of the defence unit for years!

 

[El_Scorcho]

Guthrie (23) Henderson (25) Kolodjashnij (20)
Thurlow (21) Taylor (29) Murdoch (23)

This is exactly the argument.

If you lose a few old guys to niggling injuries, this is the backline that you're left with, and it's not great. Apart from Taylor who is a genuine champion, the other guys here are solid battlers who look better than they are when the stars are playing. They aren't going to be able to stand up to the likes of Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo in big games.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

This is exactly the argument.

If you lose a few old guys to niggling injuries, this is the backline that you're left with, and it's not great. Apart from Taylor who is a genuine champion, the other guys here are solid battlers who look better than they are when the stars are playing. They aren't going to be able to stand up to the likes of Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo in big games.

From that group, your description only applies to Murdoch.

 

[HairyO]

I think Geelong potentially have the best backline in the league. I don't get why everybody is so down on it.

Good one.

 

[Sttew]

I am more than happy to go into 2016 in the eyes of BF posters as a middle order side that will struggle to make the 8. Just as we did coming into season 2007.

Any talk of a premiership is premature.

 

[El_Scorcho]

From that group, your description only applies to Murdoch.

No, it really doesn't. I rate Kolodjashnij but he's shown nothing to say he'll be a top player. Guthrie and Thurlow are rusted on 2nd tier and Henderson is a good solid backman, nothing more. Outside of Taylor, there isn't a future All Australian in that group.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I am more than happy to go into 2016 in the eyes of BF posters as a middle order side that will struggle to make the 8. Just as we did coming into season 2007.

Any talk of a premiership is premature.

There is just a slight talent and age profile difference. You'll make the 8 on the back of your trading, but you don't have the depth of talent to be a threat. You certainly don't have a group of potential champions in the 23-25 age bracket ready to burst onto the scene and do a 2007.

 

[Sttew]

No, it really doesn't. I rate Kolodjashnij but he's shown nothing to say he'll be a top player. Guthrie and Thurlow are rusted on 2nd tier and Henderson is a good solid backman, nothing more. Outside of Taylor, there isn't a future All Australian in that group.

More than happy to bookmark your post.

No doubt you predicted all of the newbie AA selections this year?