Your Club in 2012, according to BigFooty

[Final Siren]

And, as per request, here is the Melbourne Demons Snapshot!

Click for large version.

What I find interesting about this one is how the Melbourne supporters box has such a long tail. The average (median) prediction by Melbourne supporters is 8th, but the highest any fan put them was 7th. So Demon fans have a really small gap between what they think is "best we could possibly finish" and "where we probably will finish."

Overall, it's a 12th placed finish for Melbourne according to BigFooty, but Demon fans are tipping 8th.

Adelaide supporters are unusually certain about Melbourne finishing 12th or 13th. Port Adelaide fans have noooo idea.

The Respect Ladder: Melbourne is most rated by supporters of:

1. Melbourne
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Collingwood
5. Richmond
6. Port Adelaide
7. St Kilda
8. Hawthorn
9. Carlton
10. Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Essendon
13. Geelong
14. Greater Western Sydney
15. Brisbane
16. North Melbourne
17. Sydney
18. Fremantle

Those Dockers fans are an unforgiving lot, aren't they.

I'm a little surprised to see North Melbourne so low. In the North Melbourne Snapshot, we saw that Melbourne fans rate North very highly. But apparently this is not returned. Fans of those teams vying for "best young team on the rise" status (Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, and to a lesser extent Essendon) have a strange and complicated relationship.

Likelihood of finals: 12.0%, according to BigFooty. 58.3%, according to Melbourne supporters.

Top 4 chances: 1.1%. Flag: 0.3%.

 

[sTeeL]

Good anaylsis from a proper stastical point of view. Interesting in the bias from Fremantle and Carlton supporters. Just goes to show that people cannot be impartial where the heart is involved. Such as years of being the little brother that couldn't or a particularly satisfying Qualifying Final Loss.

I am also interested if it works the same way for West Coast to Freo/Carlton.

 

[raskolnikov]

Yep we are your bitch, but you really need a game plan that will let you beat other teams as well.

Like Geelong, Sydney and West Coast for example?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Like Geelong, Sydney and West Coast for example?

Well all of them really. No point in making one team your bitch, while the majority of others slap you into shape.
Seriously I think Essendon did/do a good job of exploiting StKilda's weaknesses, using your footspeed and good kicking/marking skills.
But that gameplan doesnt work for all the teams.

 

[Slattery_20]

Yep we are your bitch, but you really need a game plan that will let you beat other teams as well.

It certainly wasn't our game plan that lost us ANZAC day, nor Sydney game early. Just outrun & outplayed in the last quarter by a better, more seasoned, team.
I didn't take much out of the 2nd Pies & WCE floggings when we had 2-3 men down and the heads dropped. Carlton & Hawthorn were the sides that really undid us from the bounce.

Doesn't tell you much other than we're not good enough, nor are we really ready (not hard & consistent enough). We played smart (enough) football when we were up but we just didn't last the season.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It certainly wasn't our game plan that lost us ANZAC day, nor Sydney game early. Just outrun & outplayed in the last quarter by a better, more seasoned, team.
I didn't take much out of the 2nd Pies & WCE floggings when we had 2-3 men down and the heads dropped. Carlton & Hawthorn were the sides that really undid us from the bounce.

Doesn't tell you much other than we're not good enough, nor are we really ready (not hard & consistent enough). We played smart (enough) football when we were up but we just didn't last the season.

Interestingly one of the things I've noticed when the Bombers play StKilda is that they seem to kick to space a fair bit, backing their runners to get there before the slower Saints. Its one of the things that will only work against selected teams.

 

[Final Siren]

I am also interested if it works the same way for West Coast to Freo/Carlton.

Let's have a look at the Blues...

The Carlton 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview. Click for large version.

As mentioned in the OP, Carlton supporters are the least delusional in the league. While the typical Blue bagger is predicting a 3rd place finish in 2012, that's backed up by plenty of neutrals, with supporters of Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn, Port, and Richmond all tipping 3rd for Carlton on average, and BigFooty overall saying 4th.

In fact, Carlton supporters are even less optimistic than GWS supporters about the Blues' prospects for 2012, although one should bear in mind that there are only 4 GWS ladders in this data sample, which is not statistically reliable, and GWS fans don't know anything about football.

Only three teams have not one supporter tipping Carlton for the flag: West Coast, Geelong, and Fremantle.

To the question of whether West Coast fans view Carlton with as much contempt as vice versa: yes! Each team's supporters drop the other out of the Top 4 far more often than their own team or Hawthorn or Collingwood or Geelong.

The light blue boxes are quite short, meaning there's a good consensus about where the Blues will finish. Compare this to the teams people have more trouble predicting, like Melbourne and Richmond.

Essendon supporters have a wider range of opinions about the Blues than usual.

To the Respect Ladder! Carlton is most rated by supporters of:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Brisbane
4. Port Adelaide
5. Richmond
6. Geelong
7. Hawthorn
8. Melbourne
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Fremantle
11. Collingwood
12. Essendon
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney
15. North Melbourne
16. Gold Coast
17. West Coast
18. St Kilda

There isn't a whole lot of difference between these teams, though, with over half of all ladders putting the Blues either 3rd or 4th.

Top 4 chances: 75.1%, according to BigFooty. 100%, according to Blues, GWS, and Port Adelaide supporters. 55%, according to West Coast supporters.

Flag chances: 7.3% of ladders give the Blues the 2012 flag. Of Carlton supporters' ladders, 10.7% put the Blues on top.

Finals chances: 97.5%, according to BigFooty.

 

[Slattery_20]

Interestingly one of the things I've noticed when the Bombers play StKilda is that they seem to kick to space a fair bit, backing their runners to get there before the slower Saints. Its one of the things that will only work against selected teams.

True, works pretty well against Sydney/St K, has worked on occasion against Geelong & WCE. Doesn't work at all against sides that like to have a man sitting off the contest (Pies, Hawks)

We did change - pretty drastically - our style of play about mid-year.
A lot of kicking to packs & shutting down space early, a more one-on-one style & running game later.

I don't know what we'll end up with, or even what we'll come out with in round 1.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Love your work FS!!

 

[zigzag13]

I really think Gold Coast will just miss out on the 8 this year. They will win some surprising matches but then lose other that they should win...going to be a very inconsistant season but it's going to be filled with some amazing play. Going to be a fun watch.

Interesting to see how Geelong goes next year. Ling out means they no longer have one of the best shut down players in the game stoping the superstar midfielders. We be see opposition midfields begin to dominate more against geelongs...but who knows what geelong is capable of....finish 6-4.

Watch out for Freo. Ross Lyon is one of the biggest coaching moves in some time. It sounds like he is smashing them to the ground in pre-season and i think his shut down play is what freo has needed. The two WA teams look set to be major players in the finals.

 

[Final Siren]

This was being discussed in another thread, so... just how bad do people expect GWS to be?

The Greater Western Sydney 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview. Click for large version.

The answer: Really bad!

The purple lines show that the average (median) prediction from supporters of every club but GWS is 18th. The light blue boxes are completely invisible in all cases except GC and GWS, meaning that at least 75% of those supporters tip GWS for 18th. In five cases (Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs), everyone tipped GWS for 18th.

Excluding GWS supporters:

• 93.8% say GWS will finish last
• 5.1% say GWS will finish 17th
• 1.1% say GWS will finish higher than 17th

Also there is one insane Collingwood supporter tipping 5th.

The Respect Ladder is meaningless in this case, since opinions are so uniform. It basically goes:

1. GWS supporters
2. GC supporters
3. Everyone else

Also, although GWS supporters are wildly optimistic compared to everyone else, I think this is the only case of at least one supporter tipping their own team to finish last.

 

[Old Skool]

And why not: here is the North Melbourne Snapshot!

Here is what BigFooty thinks about North. Click for large version!

So on the left, we have the whole of BigFooty. The dark blue line stretching from 1 to 17 means that of the 300 ladders, the highest North appeared was 1st and the lowest was 17th. No-one tipped them for the spoon.

The light blue box contains the middle 50% of predictions. So half of all ladders put North somewhere in this box (7th - 10th). The purple line at 8th is the average (median).

So BigFooty thinks North will finish 8th, with a good chance of 7th - 10th.

Then, moving across the top of the graph, we have what supporters of different teams think. Supporters of North, of course, stand out as being optimistic about their team's chances: their average tip is 6th, with 50% of North supporters predicting 5th - 7th.

Interestingly, Melbourne supporters are notably more pro-North than average. Or more scared of them, perhaps. Hawthorn supporters rate North, too.

In fact, you can make a "Respect Ladder," showing who rates North the most. It's supporters of:

1. North Melbourne
2. Melbourne
3. Hawthorn
4. Port Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. Brisbane
7. Carlton
8. Fremantle
9. Adelaide
10. Richmond
11. Geelong
12. Sydney
13. Essendon
14. Collingwood
15. Greater Western Sydney
16. Gold Coast
17. Western Bulldogs
18. St Kilda

I don't know what North did to piss off St. Kilda supporters, but apparently it was something.

(Actually, at a guess, I'd say St Kilda & Bulldogs supporters are looking for teams to displace from the 8 in order to slot in their own teams.)

And, finally, this is what the 2012 Ladder will look like according to North fans!

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. Geelong
4. Carlton
5. West Coast
6. NORTH MELBOURNE
7. Fremantle
8. Sydney
9. Essendon
10. St Kilda
11. Richmond
12. Melbourne
13. Brisbane
14. Adelaide
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. Greater Western Sydney

Which is almost identical to the Consolidated BigFooty 2012 Ladder, only with North shifted up two spots.

Likelihood of making finals: 51.8%, says BigFooty. 96.9%, say Roo fans.

Top 4 prospects: 2.8%, says BigFooty. 18.8%, say the Roos.

Ladders tipping a Roo flag: 0.3% (one North supporter).

Sensational work, I only wish there was more input like this. This seems to reasonably fit my expectations.

Do North fans overate North or do Bigfooty folks underrate North? We will find out on August 26th.

 

[ManOfClay]

Do North fans overate North or do Bigfooty folks underrate North? We will find out on August 26th.

In my opinion- a bit of both. There seem to be a fair few North Melbourne supporters around that believe because they have had a young team that success is just around the corner as other teams get old. There seems to be a lot of chest thumping around this pre-season with Essendon, while it was the same last season with Melb and Richmond, who North have now gone considerably past.

On the other hand, some Bigfooty folk don't rate North's young players because of the almost one-paced nature of the side. Guys like Wright, Cunnington, Ziebell, Adams, Greenwood. The game isn't getting any slower and while Ziebell and Greenwood in particular are brutes who will do well in the clinches, how are they going to go on the wider pastures of the MCG when North start making finals and play there more often, and the odd Subiaco game where run and spread becomes a factor?

You'll argue that your guys have footy smarts, but in the end will that be enough for them to have an impact?

And will you have a key forward that can stand up post Petrie? Aaron Black looked alright in half a game against one of the worst defensive lines in the league, but hasn't had a true test yet. Hansen is sadly a bits and pieces merchant who I think will struggle, especially if Scott doesn't set him as either a defender or a forward with regularity. Pederson is probably the one I rate the most as a chance and he did well for what he is- a rookie outsider, but will he handle closer attention?

 

[Old Skool]

In my opinion- a bit of both. There seem to be a fair few North Melbourne supporters around that believe because they have had a young team that success is just around the corner as other teams get old. There seems to be a lot of chest thumping around this pre-season with Essendon, while it was the same last season with Melb and Richmond, who North have now gone considerably past.

On the other hand, some Bigfooty folk don't rate North's young players because of the almost one-paced nature of the side. Guys like Wright, Cunnington, Ziebell, Adams, Greenwood. The game isn't getting any slower and while Ziebell and Greenwood in particular are brutes who will do well in the clinches, how are they going to go on the wider pastures of the MCG when North start making finals and play there more often, and the odd Subiaco game where run and spread becomes a factor?

You'll argue that your guys have footy smarts, but in the end will that be enough for them to have an impact?

I am from the Pagan "Old Skool" of football philosophy.

If you win the contested ball, you control the ball. It's that simple.

I will take a midfield of 6 steel hard grunts with a DE of 70-75%, over 6 outside wing men with a DE of 85%, every day of the week.

An elite palm ruckman also compliments our inside mids beautifully.

 

[ManOfClay]

I am from the Pagan "Old Skool" of football philosophy.

If you win the contested ball, you control the ball. It's that simple.

I will take a midfield of 6 steel hard grunts with a DE of 70-75% over 6 outside wing men with a DE of 85% every day of the week.

Aside from the cringeworth way you spell school, I'll agree with you on principle. I feel the Dogs are following the old school mould now.

But there still needs to be a mix in modern footy I feel. Will a midfield with an overall disposal efficiency in the 70-75% range win enough of the ball to hurt the real quality sides? the wingmen are there for a reason. Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington may get a lot of the ball in the clinches but are they going to deliver the ball well enough for forwards to capitalise against quality defenders?

I'll use the Dogs as an example. In two years time, Clay Smith, Tom Liberatore, Mitch Wallis will all be in their early 20's and hopefully on the way to becoming quality tough inside midfielders. But I wouldn't want them being the ones consistently putting the ball inside 50. For now, Ryan Griffen is that inside/outside force who should be the one delivering the ball. He has about 7 years left of footy in him. We're hoping guys like Howard and Tutt will take over his role when he retires.

So in the end- while the steel hard grunts are important, you cannot discount outside polish. Atley and Harper when he is on the ball will be every bit as important as midfielders as your steel hard gunts.

 

[smasha]

Top thread FS.

 

[Old Skool]

Our rucks are quality in Goldstein and McIntosh, we have a ruthless bunch of young inside mids in Swallow, Ziebell, Greenwood, Cunnington, Adams and Garlett. We have Wells, Bastinac, Thomas, Harper, Mullet, Atley and Brad McKenzie who all have pace and/or quality disposal skills to play the run and carry/open space roles.

I'm not concerned in the slightest, and I'm optimistic about North, in regards to the other rebuilding sides, because I think we have the lead in inside/outside/ruck balance and depth over the other contenders.

I believe we have the key defensive talent in place, and we also have a very good spread of medium/small forwards in Adams, Harper, Wright and Campbell.

We will become a top 4 side, however, I cannot claim we are on the road to premiership glory until one or two young key forwards step up. Black looks as though he will be more than useful, but we need more.

This is the best bunch of young talent I have seen at North since the early 90's, and whilst the top end talent may not reach the heights of that list, I believe this group has even better depth.

I still don't think many people realise just how good Ziebell is going to be. The last two players North promoted to the captaincy at such an early age were Wayne Carey and David Dench. Both turned out to be undeniable all time legends of the game. Ziebell is going to be named either Captain or Vice Captain in the next week or so.

 

[Old Skool]

Aside from the cringeworth way you spell school, I'll agree with you on principle. I feel the Dogs are following the old school mould now.

But there still needs to be a mix in modern footy I feel. Will a midfield with an overall disposal efficiency in the 70-75% range win enough of the ball to hurt the real quality sides? the wingmen are there for a reason. Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington may get a lot of the ball in the clinches but are they going to deliver the ball well enough for forwards to capitalise against quality defenders?

I'll use the Dogs as an example. In two years time, Clay Smith, Tom Liberatore, Mitch Wallis will all be in their early 20's and hopefully on the way to becoming quality tough inside midfielders. But I wouldn't want them being the ones consistently putting the ball inside 50. For now, Ryan Griffen is that inside/outside force who should be the one delivering the ball. He has about 7 years left of footy in him. We're hoping guys like Howard and Tutt will take over his role when he retires.

So in the end- while the steel hard grunts are important, you cannot discount outside polish. Atley and Harper when he is on the ball will be every bit as important as midfielders as your steel hard gunts.

The dogs have been unlucky with injury and the tops ups didn't quite get them over the line.

Cooney looks to be very limited from here on in, but fate has smiled on the Dogs by granting them some promising F/S selections.

IMO, your list is a little disjointed in age and I think you need another solid draft or two to get up and going again. The Bulldog KKP prospects are also a little bit iffy at this point in time.

I'd be looking at the Dogs rising again in 4-6 years time. I don't think the current senior group will see them back in top 4 contention. Boyd, Cross, Gia, Hargreaves, Lake, Morris and Murphy will all be gone in the next 2-3 years and the current list does not have the depth to cover them.

 

[Crimson Azure]

Great read FS, thanks.

 

[BowWow1978]

And, as per request, here is the Melbourne Demons Snapshot!

Click for large version.

What I find interesting about this one is how the Melbourne supporters box has such a long tail. The average (median) prediction by Melbourne supporters is 8th, but the highest any fan put them was 7th. So Demon fans have a really small gap between what they think is "best we could possibly finish" and "where we probably will finish."

Overall, it's a 12th placed finish for Melbourne according to BigFooty, but Demon fans are tipping 8th.

Adelaide supporters are unusually certain about Melbourne finishing 12th or 13th. Port Adelaide fans have noooo idea.

The Respect Ladder: Melbourne is most rated by supporters of:

1. Melbourne
2. Gold Coast
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Collingwood
5. Richmond
6. Port Adelaide
7. St Kilda
8. Hawthorn
9. Carlton
10. Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Essendon
13. Geelong
14. Greater Western Sydney
15. Brisbane
16. North Melbourne
17. Sydney
18. Fremantle

Those Dockers fans are an unforgiving lot, aren't they.

I'm a little surprised to see North Melbourne so low. In the North Melbourne Snapshot, we saw that Melbourne fans rate North very highly. But apparently this is not returned. Fans of those teams vying for "best young team on the rise" status (Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, and to a lesser extent Essendon) have a strange and complicated relationship.

Likelihood of finals: 12.0%, according to BigFooty. 58.3%, according to Melbourne supporters.

Top 4 chances: 1.1%. Flag: 0.3%.

The main reason for this is the last 2-3 seasons. Melbourne have been touted as the next big thing, but NM have pumped them in every game we've played against them. Thus Melbourne fans respect and NM fans don't.........

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Where's the rest of the write-ups FS?!?!?

 

[Lewie17]

I think the hawks are in for a good season.

 

[Final Siren]

Where's the rest of the write-ups FS?!?!?

I wasn't sure anyone was still reading this thread. But okay, I'll do some more!

 

[Slattery_20]

Hellz yeah.

 

[syl]

Mate, this one of the best off season threads on the board!

People are reading, there's just no spammy dereailment posts!