Your Club in 2012, according to BigFooty

[Danoz]

Awesome work FS! Can't wait to see the rest of the analysis!

 

[Final Siren]

Hmmm - the delusional StKilda performance is a result of a whole 2( unless its changed ) opinions.

It has changed: that was from before I started doing the team snapshots.

I'm currently using a dataset of 357 ladders, comprised of:

• Adelaide 17
• Brisbane 15
• Carlton 28
• Collingwood 26
• Essendon 37
• Fremantle 18
• Geelong 30
• Gold Coast 8
• Greater Western Sydney 4
• Hawthorn 22
• Melbourne 12
• North Melbourne 32
• Port Adelaide 8
• Richmond 32
• St Kilda 12
• Sydney 17
• West Coast 29
• Western Bulldogs 10

So the GWS numbers are very low (4), which is why I keep warning about taking those too seriously, and Gold Coast and Port Adelaide (8 each) should be treated with caution, too. But St. Kilda's up to 12 now, which isn't too bad.

 

[Final Siren]

Where's the analysis on Geelong?

Or did I miss it?

You didn't! Here it is!

The Geelong 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview. Click for large version.

BigFooty doesn't expect the reigning premier to back up in 2012, with a median average tip of 3rd. More than half of all ladders put the Cats in 2nd to 4th.

Most Geelong supporters, however, think another flag is on the way: their average tip is 1st. At worst, they expect a top 4 finish: 29 out of 30 ladders by Cat fans put them in there.

Supporters of the Cats' two main flag rivals, Collingwood and Hawthorn, tend to rank Geelong lower than average, tipping a 4th-placed finish.

Respect Ladder! Geelong is most rated by supporters of:

1. Geelong
2. St Kilda
3. Essendon
4. Carlton
5. Sydney
6. North Melbourne
7. Richmond*
8. Melbourne
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Gold Coast
11. Port Adelaide
12. West Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Collingwood
15. Fremantle
16. Hawthorn
17. Brisbane
18. Greater Western Sydney

Chance of making finals: 98.0%.

Chance of finishing top 4: 77.0%. According to Geelong fans, it's 96.7%.

Chance of winning the flag: 14.0%. According to Geelong fans: 53.3%.

(* May have changed since yesterday.)

 

[Final Siren]

Awesome work FS! Can't wait to see the rest of the analysis!

I'm basically doing it by request now. And I'll take that as one for the Crows!

The Adelaide 2012 Snapshot

Here is the overview. Click for large version.

There's an interesting variation here. Plenty of clubs' supporters are sure that the Crows are headed for 12th - 14th, with 13th being the overall BigFooty tip. But some clubs--especially the non-Victorian ones?--have a very different view.

Supporters of Fremantle seriously rate the Crows--even more than Adelaide fans themselves--and Brisbane fans have a pretty high opinion of them, too. At the other extreme, Port fans (*gasp*) don't rate the Crows at all.

Adelaide supporters are fairly undecided about their own team, with bets all over 8th-12th. Their average tip is 10th.

The Respect Ladder: Adelaide is most rated by fans of:

1. Fremantle
2. Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Geelong
5. Melbourne
6. Hawthorn
7. Collingwood
8. Carlton
9. West Coast
10. Sydney
11. Richmond
12. Essendon
13. North Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Gold Coast
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Greater Western Sydney
18. Port Adelaide

Finals chances: 11.8%. According to Crow fans, it's 35.3%.

Top 4 chances: 0.0%. Not even a Crow fan dared to dream this one. No tips higher than 5th.

Flag chances: 0.0%.

 

[CrimsonRaven]

If you get time can you do Port? These are awesome!

 

[Final Siren]

If you get time can you do Port? These are awesome!

Good idea; let's see if Adelaide supporters feel the same way about Port!

The Port Adelaide 2012 Snapshot

Here is the overview. Click for large version.

It's not pretty. Port Adelaide floats gently above the bottom rung, bouyed by an invisible cloud named "Greater Western Sydney." While the dark blue lines do sometimes reach down to 18, indicating the odd individual who thinks the Power can snatch the spoon from GWS, none of the light blue boxes, which indicate the "majority view," get below 17th--except the one from GWS supporters.

In fact, midway through entering the data, I decided to simply copy-paste "17" into all the remaining boxes in the Port Adelaide column, because that way I would only have to change it whenever someone ranked them differently. (I did the same for GWS and "18".)

The light blue boxes are invisible in some cases (supporters of Adelaide, Carlton, Fremantle, and West Coast), showing a very firm consensus (50%+) for the median ranking of 17th.

One Gold Coast supporter tipped Port for the Grand Final, bless him.

Port Adelaide fans think 14th or 15th is more likely. Their bottom 4 is: Adelaide, Brisbane, GC, GWS.

The Respect Ladder: Port is most rated by fans of:

1. Port Adelaide
2. Gold Coast
3. St Kilda
4. Melbourne
5. North Melbourne
6. Brisbane
7. Essendon
8. Sydney
9. Richmond
10. Geelong
11. Hawthorn
12. Western Bulldogs
13. West Coast
14. Carlton
15. Collingwood
16. Adelaide
17. Fremantle
18. Greater Western Sydney

Although Adelaide supporters take a very dim view of Port, theirs is not dimmest, thanks to the need of GWS supporters to find a team to rank 18th that isn't them, and an ever so slightly more bleak assessment from Dockers fans.


Finals chances: 0.3%. (One Gold Coast supporter.)

Top 4 chances: 0.3%. (That same Gold Coast supporter.)

Flag chances: Noooooo.

 

[Pegasaur]

This is a great read FS, it seems that Freo supporters hates just about everyone.

Do you mind doing Freo next, thanks in advance.

 

[Final Siren]

This is a great read FS, it seems that Freo supporters hates just about everyone.

Do you mind doing Freo next, thanks in advance.

The Fremantle 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview, and here is the large version.

It's 6th for the Dockers this year, according to BigFooty, with half of all ladders slotting them into 5th - 8th.

Fremantle fans like the idea of 4th, though.

The opinions of most supporters are pretty consistent, with a couple of notable exceptions. Hawthorn supporters rate the Dockers significantly more highly than other neutrals, North fans don't, and neither do Melbourne fans, who also have an unusually large spread of opinions.

West Coast supporters rate Freo lower than average, but not by much, and nothing like how Freo fans view the Eagles (see West Coast's Snapshot).

St. Kilda supporters don't think Lyon is going to help: not one Saint supporter could bear the idea of Freo in the Top 4. The only other group of supporters to think like this is Gold Coast, but we only have four ladders from them, so it's hardly a wide data sample.

The Respect Ladder: Freo is most rated by supporters of:

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Essendon
4. Geelong
5. Richmond
6. Carlton
7. Collingwood
8. Brisbane
9. Adelaide
10. Port Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Greater Western Sydney
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Gold Coast
15. St Kilda
16. Sydney
17. Melbourne
18. North Melbourne

Finals chances: 78.7%. According to Docker supporters, it's 88.9%. According to Melbourne supporters, it's 58.3%.

Top 4 chances: 18.2%. According to Docker fans, it's 61.1%.

Flag chances: 0.8%. That's three tips, one each from a Dockers, Cats, and Hawks supporter.

 

[basashi]

The Respect Ladder: Freo is most rated by supporters of:

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Essendon
4. Geelong
5. Richmond
6. Carlton
7. Collingwood
8. Brisbane
9. Adelaide
10. Port Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Greater Western Sydney
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Gold Coast
15. St Kilda
16. Sydney
17. Melbourne
18. North Melbourne

Finals chances: 78.7%. According to Docker supporters, it's 88.9%. According to Melbourne supporters, it's 58.3%.

Top 4 chances: 18.2%. According to Docker fans, it's 61.1%.

Flag chances: 0.8%. That's three tips, one each from a Dockers, Cats, and Hawks supporter.

It seems Hawks fans remember getting belted in that final in 2010 better than they remember handing out a belting since....

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It seems Hawks fans remember getting belted in that final in 2010 better than they remember handing out a belting since....

It's worth remembering the sample size, though.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Excellent thread FS, any chance of posting Essendon's results?

 

[Final Siren]

Excellent thread FS, any chance of posting Essendon's results?

The Essendon 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview. Click for large version.

There's a pretty wide range of opinions, as usual for teams expected to finish somewhere around the middle of the ladder. Overall, though, BigFooty tips the Bombers to finish 9th, just beaten out of the Top 8 by North Melbourne. Half of all ladders rank the Dons between 7th and 10th.

Essendon fans tip 7th on average, with half of all ladders by Don fans putting them 5th to 8th. There seems to be a "Definitely Not Ninth" effect here, similar to the Richmond Snapshot, with a nice even distribution of tips around the lower rungs of the Top 8, except for a great gaping hole at 9th. No-one tips themselves for 9th.*

There are plenty of differences between supporter groups, both in terms of how highly they tip the Bombers, and how consistently. Collingwood supporters, for example, have a fairly tight cluster around 9th or 10th, while Adelaide supporters have them all over the place between 8th and 12th.

Western Bulldogs supporters have a ton of respect for Essendon, tipping them higher on average than even Essendon supporters themselves.

Port Adelaide and Melbourne supporters think the Dons are due to slide, consistently slotting them into to 10th or 11th.

Freo supporters don't have an extreme opinion, for once.

The Respect Ladder: Essendon is most rated by supporters of:

1. Western Bulldogs
2. Essendon
3. Sydney
4. Geelong
5. Hawthorn
6. Richmond
7. Collingwood
8. West Coast
9. Fremantle
10. North Melbourne
11. St Kilda
12. Greater Western Sydney
13. Carlton
14. Adelaide
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Port Adelaide

Finals chances: 40.3%. So 4 out of 10 ladders put the Dons in the finals, and 6/10 put them outside it. But 91.9% of Essendon supporters tip them for the 8. Only 8.3% of Melbourne supporters and 12.5% of Port supporters do.

Top 4 chances: 2.5%. (The huge gap between Top 8 and Top 4 chances is pretty typical for a team seen as closer to the middle than the top: North Melbourne and Sydney are also considered pretty good chances of finals, but almost no chance of Top 4.) According to Essendon supporters, it's 10.8%.

Flag chances: 0.0%. Not a solitary tip. A GWS supporter thinks they'll make the Grand Final, though, if that's any consolation. (It's not.)

(* I ran a quick check to see how often a supporter tips their own team for 9th. It happens 7 times, or in 2.0% of ladders. Most of those, though, are for teams that BigFooty expects to finish in the bottom 7, so a 9th-placed finish would actually be pretty good. (They are: Adelaide 2, Brisbane 1, Melbourne 1, Western Bulldogs 1.) Of the teams BigFooty thinks will finish 11th or higher, only 1 Freo supporter and 1 Saints supporter tip themselves for 9th. There are no 9th tips from supporters of teams that you might think are a pretty good chance for it: Richmond, Essendon, North Melbourne, Sydney.)

 

[Slattery_20]

Dogs supporters still paying us back for taking Alvey off their hands!!!

 

[lamaros]

You obviously don't have my predicted ladder in there, as I have the bombers in 3rd!

Interesting how Port don't rate us. Have had the wood over us for years and we produced a pretty half assed game against them in our win last year.

 

[Final Siren]

You obviously don't have my predicted ladder in there, as I have the bombers in 3rd!

Where is your post? I did a quick forum search just then but don't see you.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Seeing as requests have been met..... Hawthorn please, FS?

 

[Final Siren]

Seeing as requests have been met..... Hawthorn please, FS?

Too easy!

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=23334282#post23334282

 

[Tazmania]

I'm basically doing it by request now. And I'll take that as one for the Crows!

The Adelaide 2012 Snapshot

Here is the overview. Click for large version.

There's an interesting variation here. Plenty of clubs' supporters are sure that the Crows are headed for 12th - 14th, with 13th being the overall BigFooty tip. But some clubs--especially the non-Victorian ones?--have a very different view.

Supporters of Fremantle seriously rate the Crows--even more than Adelaide fans themselves--and Brisbane fans have a pretty high opinion of them, too. At the other extreme, Port fans (*gasp*) don't rate the Crows at all.

Adelaide supporters are fairly undecided about their own team, with bets all over 8th-12th. Their average tip is 10th.

The Respect Ladder: Adelaide is most rated by fans of:

1. Fremantle
2. Adelaide
3. Brisbane
4. Geelong
5. Melbourne
6. Hawthorn
7. Collingwood
8. Carlton
9. West Coast
10. Sydney
11. Richmond
12. Essendon
13. North Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Gold Coast
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Greater Western Sydney
18. Port Adelaide

Finals chances: 11.8%. According to Crow fans, it's 35.3%.

Top 4 chances: 0.0%. Not even a Crow fan dared to dream this one. No tips higher than 5th.

Flag chances: 0.0%.

Given they've made the NAB Cup final maybe we're onto something

 

[footy_noob]

Final Siren you are a cool dude.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Too easy!

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=23334282#post23334282

Cheers, I had missed it earlier even though I'd been checking this thread repeatedly.

 

[lamaros]

Where is your post? I did a quick forum search just then but don't see you.

In the 'Ladder prediction (competition)' sticky. Might have been done after you assembled this.

Top info regardless, quite interesting.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren you are a cool dude.

Haha, thanks mate. First time I've been called cool for doing stats!

In the 'Ladder prediction (competition)' sticky. Might have been done after you assembled this.

That's not one of the main "2012 Predictions" threads (mentioned in the OP), so no, it's not included.

I'm also not adding any new ladders since the start of the NAB Cup, so this will remain a snapshot of people's tips before we got to see any games.

 

[Sunny_]

Gold Coast please?

I also enjoyed the read Jennifer Government.

 

[vonn]

This is fantastic. Massive kudos to OP. Very interesting read.

 

[Final Siren]

Gold Coast please?

I also enjoyed the read Jennifer Government.

Sorry, took a while to get to this one. But I have time to squeeze it in before heading off to the 'G...

The Gold Coast 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview. Click for large version.

BigFooty expects improvement from Gold Coast, but not much. The median tip is 16th, beating out GWS and Port Adelaide. Opinions were very consistent on this, with more than half of all ladders putting the Suns either 15th or 16th.

Gold Coast supporters are more optimistic, tipping around 12th - 15th, and GWS supporters think the Suns are getting ready to push for finals.

Aside from this, there's very little variation between the supporter groups. Nevertheless, here's the Respect Ladder! The Coasters are most rated by supporters of:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Gold Coast
3. Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. St Kilda
6. Fremantle
7. North Melbourne
8. West Coast
9. Carlton
10. Port Adelaide
11. Essendon
12. Hawthorn
13. Melbourne
14. Collingwood
15. Richmond
16. Brisbane
17. Western Bulldogs
18. Geelong

I think one thing we've established via this research is that Geelong supporters never forget and never forgive.

Finals chances: 0.8%. The Suns are tipped to make finals by two GWS and 1 GC fan. Although only just (7th/8th). Otherwise it would be unrealistic.

Top 4/flag chances: 0%/0%.