Oppo Camp Non Geelong football (AFL) discussion 2022, part II

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post finals ladder is the ladder used for draft position, so it is effectively the ladder for the top8.

they finished 5th.
For draft purposes yes, it just diminishes Melbourne's season. A poor finals series doesn't change the fact that after 22 rounds they finished 2nd
 

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Note where the Demons and Dogs finished this year.
Dogs lucky to be in the 8.
Demons outside top 4.
Both teams overtaxed this year it seems.
Geelong remain so consistently good.
Haven’t we just been extraordinary really?
 
They were considering trading him last year, which tells me that they didn’t see his value. He’s probably only currently in your team because Grundy got hurt and everything had to be rejigged. He may have some highlights, but not a consistent level over a long period.
I think he is better value than that now. That prelim game against Tigers 18 was clearly the highlight, but he was very good yesterday, and is quite a skilled player. A difficult match-up for most teams.
 

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Half way through q2, they were gone. Called it. Would have been great if they pinched a win.
Too banged up all over.
Luck as always is crucial in September, as is freshness; Demons had neither.

On Melb..

It has been a discussion point with us before of comparing Melb to us in 07 ... I think now we can make a few observations. Thru extemly good preparation , a list in its perfect age experience paradigm Melb did what few other teams had done in 2021. but sustaining itself is much like the quote in the movie ...All the Money in the World


"Getting rich is easy; any fool can get rich. Many number of fools do. But being rich, that's something else. When a man becomes wealthy he has to deal with the problems of freedom. All the choices he could possibly want. An abyss opens up."


Being the top team, and staying there is different than having the right list, super fit and find a niche advantage that works for a window of time.



Rocking up when other sides have looked at you , each looking for weakness, putting you under the microscope.. and still making a GF 3 out of the next for years after a dominant GF win. Winning a flag when you have lost a B&F winner .. sort of separates them from us now in retrospect for me.


Sept Freshness is a part of it but I think they lost their tactical advantage, and they lost there way. The May fight at the resauraut etc was not good.

If they do not have a dominant centre square group with Gawn and the midfield group of single figure draft picks... then they are not the same team. They will be fresher im sure next year but they will not get that tactical advantage back.
 
GWS want 2 first round draft picks for Hopper. Comparing him to Taranto, with consideration of one year left on Hopper's contract - can anyone guess what Taranto would be worth in this case?
 
How many first round picks would it take to secure the #1 pick from North? GWS should put their multiple first rounders together and offer them to north for the #1 pick. Overpay if necessary.

If I was GWS that is what I would do. The last thing they need is to get another bunch of high-ish picks, they have enough trouble keeping the ones they already have on their list. They should go for one premium player.

I reckon north would entertain it. They have zero depth and need to build a core group of players. A bunch of high picks is better for them than 1 star player.
 
It's not the Squiggle's fault our finals form fails to marry up with H&A. The creator hasn't added a 'Geelong finals tilt' to the algorithm.
Squiggle has been pretty accurate through Scott's tenure:

2011: incorrectly picked Collingwood to beat Geelong in GF
2012: incorrectly picked Geelong to beat Fremantle in EF
2013: correctly picked Hawthorn to eliminate Geelong in PF
2014: correctly picked Hawthorn to beat Geelong in QF and North to eliminate Geelong in SF
2015: No Finals
2016: incorrectly picked Geelong to win PF against Sydney
2017: correctly picked Richmond to beat Geelong in QF and correctly picked Adelaide to eliminate Geelong in PF
2018: correctly picked Melbourne to eliminate Geelong in EF
2019: correctly picked Richmond to eliminate Geelong in PF
2020: incorrectly picked Geelong to beat Richmond in GF
2021: correctly picked Port Adelaide to beat Geelong in QF and Melbourne to eliminate Geelong in PF

It was correct in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. It did like us in 2016. It thought we'd lose in 2011, and win in 2020 (though that was the COVID outlier year).

Perhaps we should add 'realistic expectations' to your algorithm.
 
Squiggle has been pretty accurate through Scott's tenure:

2011: incorrectly picked Collingwood to beat Geelong in GF
2012: incorrectly picked Geelong to beat Fremantle in EF
2013: correctly picked Hawthorn to eliminate Geelong in PF
2014: correctly picked Hawthorn to beat Geelong in QF and North to eliminate Geelong in SF
2015: No Finals
2016: incorrectly picked Geelong to win PF against Sydney
2017: correctly picked Richmond to beat Geelong in QF and correctly picked Adelaide to eliminate Geelong in PF
2018: correctly picked Melbourne to eliminate Geelong in EF
2019: correctly picked Richmond to eliminate Geelong in PF
2020: incorrectly picked Geelong to beat Richmond in GF
2021: correctly picked Port Adelaide to beat Geelong in QF and Melbourne to eliminate Geelong in PF

It was correct in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. It did like us in 2016. It thought we'd lose in 2011, and win in 2020 (though that was the COVID outlier year).

Perhaps we should add 'realistic expectations' to your algorithm.
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Squiggle has been pretty accurate through Scott's tenure:

2011: incorrectly picked Collingwood to beat Geelong in GF
2012: incorrectly picked Geelong to beat Fremantle in EF
2013: correctly picked Hawthorn to eliminate Geelong in PF
2014: correctly picked Hawthorn to beat Geelong in QF and North to eliminate Geelong in SF
2015: No Finals
2016: incorrectly picked Geelong to win PF against Sydney
2017: correctly picked Richmond to beat Geelong in QF and correctly picked Adelaide to eliminate Geelong in PF
2018: correctly picked Melbourne to eliminate Geelong in EF
2019: correctly picked Richmond to eliminate Geelong in PF
2020: incorrectly picked Geelong to beat Richmond in GF
2021: correctly picked Port Adelaide to beat Geelong in QF and Melbourne to eliminate Geelong in PF

It was correct in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. It did like us in 2016. It thought we'd lose in 2011, and win in 2020 (though that was the COVID outlier year).

Perhaps we should add 'realistic expectations' to your algorithm.
2020... that should have been won.
 
GWS want 2 first round draft picks for Hopper. Comparing him to Taranto, with consideration of one year left on Hopper's contract - can anyone guess what Taranto would be worth in this case?
Hopper f1 and 19 is fine, maybe a little over. 12 and something else for Taranto is around the mark depending on the something else.

Should be pretty straightforward
 
GWS want 2 first round draft picks for Hopper. Comparing him to Taranto, with consideration of one year left on Hopper's contract - can anyone guess what Taranto would be worth in this case?
4 first round picks?
 
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