List Mgmt. 2022 AFL Draft & Rookie Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[GoBlues!]

Almost as good as C. Woulda Shoulda...

Not to mention F. Only...

 

[Earls Smother]

In all fairness to SOS, he had Stocker very high on his board and saw value in doing the trade. We would be singing his praises if Stocker fulfilled his potential with us, but instead SOS is criticised for being too clever/arrogant. The job of a list manager is to maximise the amount of talent on their list with the resources they have available to them. They are not responsible for the development of the players they recruit. Draft busts happen every year in every sport that has a draft.

IMO, the thought process that led to the Stocker trade was correct and I would be happy for Austin to make similar moves going forward.

Fair call and I was a tad harsh.

I still reckon he was going into that draft with a pre-conceived intention of doing "something". It's unfortunate for us that he chose the wrong player.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The pick means a lot if you are coming off a 2/20 season with no sweeping list / coaching changes, meaning improvement was likely to be minimal. In that situation, with our favouritism for the 2019 wooden spoon - you hold a lot more value on your F1.

The trade was bad too. Trading future pick 3 down to future pick 8 to get 19 is not something you would ever do unless totally sure on the kid you are getting at 19 (in the case Stocker). It left us with nothing we absolutely wanted the following year, so we traded back again to get Kemp and Philp. I remember at the time everyone wanted Young or Serong and surely one of those would have been selected for us with the original pick - bad drafting or not. It would be same most years, the top 5 picks pick themselves, but picks around 10 start to become sketchy.

Its not just hindsight either - this was just too risky at the time, agree with others that SOS was trying to be too smart, and club somehow thought we were going to finish higher up the ladder (big call after the spoon the year before).

We cannot afford to make the same mistake twice here, and I bet the club knows that. F1 will not be traded.

We are all just assuming we know how they rated Stoker. They were over the moon when they got him so I think it would be extremely highly.

 

[Earls Smother]

Understand your logic, but Carlton 2017/18 compared to 2023 is like comparing chalk and cheese Earl.

I don’t even think Harry played many AFL games back then, Weitering was finding his feet as was Charlie…2 Coleman medalists later, AA representation, addition of Saad, Cerra, Hewett, Young etc. There’s no way you would be thinking or planning that we could be as bad as 2018.

If as I expect we end up with #11+ next year what quality of player is likely to be there, even in a super duper draft next year, compared to 14 & 17 this year with a year of development in a team with the above guns.

I realise we are in a different position and are not going to finish right down the bottom.

I, like you, would expect a pick of 14ish. But why are Sydney doing what they are doing? They are experts and know a lot more about the relative strength of the 2 years.

Everyone seems to want to trade up into the top 10-12 this year, and if they can't, they're happy to offload picks. Why?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

In all fairness to SOS, he had Stocker very high on his board and saw value in doing the trade. We would be singing his praises if Stocker fulfilled his potential with us, but instead SOS is criticised for being too clever/arrogant. The job of a list manager is to maximise the amount of talent on their list with the resources they have available to them. They are not responsible for the development of the players they recruit. Draft busts happen every year in every sport that has a draft.

IMO, the thought process that led to the Stocker trade was correct and I would be happy for Austin to make similar moves going forward.

Spot on. I didn’t like it because I didn’t think Stoker was worth it but fully agree with recruiters backing their judgment. If they don’t trust their judgment they shouldn’t be in the job.

 

[thylacine60]

Not to mention F. Only...

that's a hell of a list management team........selecting players even later than dorito..............

 

[La Dispute]

I realise we are in a different position and are not going to finish right down the bottom.

I, like you, would expect a pick of 14ish. But why are Sydney doing what they are doing? They are experts and know a lot more about the relative strength of the 2 years.

Everyone seems to want to trade up into the top 10-12 this year, and if they can't, they're happy to offload picks. Why?

Outside their academy selections (Heeney, Mills, Blakey) the Swans have had varying success with first round picks the past few years.

2016, Florent - Decent pick, about you’d expect for Pick 10
2016, Hayward - Decent pick, about what you’d expect for Pick 19
2017, Ling - Pick 17, bust
2018, Rowbottom - good value for Pick 23
2019, Stephens - looks middling for Pick 5
2020, McDonald - Decent pick, about what you’d expect for Pick 5 but huge potential

It’s not just about rating the draft as a whole, it’s about evaluating individual prospects in isolation.

They may like Humphrey, for eg, but if he is gone by their picks and they don’t rate anyone else then they might want to cast their eyes to next years draft with the knowledge they already have a decent spread of young talent on their list.

While a club in our position, that is trying to close the gap between being a competitive side and a finals team, has more incentive to look to the immediate future and continue to add young players to a list that is not far off entering their window.

We also have a few more roles to fill and would be more open-minded about the pool due to this.

 

[Earls Smother]

SOS went to the US because it’s a junket these type of people get the benefit of. 14 year olds who follow American sport already know everything that SOS could learn from sitting at home on the computer.
He done the trade because we rated Stoker too high, simple as that.

Agree, and that in itself can create an expectation that he is seen to "use" the learning.

 

[thylacine60]

what an absolute credit to the carlton supporters who have never mucked up in their job - never tried something new, took a risk, learnt a tactic, made a decision from the gut - makes me proud to be a part of the never-change diaspora..........

 

[Earls Smother]

Outside their academy selections (Heeney, Mills, Blakey) the Swans have had varying success with first round picks the past few years.

2016, Florent - Decent pick, about you’d expect for Pick 10
2016, Hayward - Decent pick, about what you’d expect for Pick 19
2017, Ling - Pick 17, bust
2018, Rowbottom - good value for Pick 23
2019, Stephens - looks middling for Pick 5
2020, McDonald - Decent pick, about what you’d expect for Pick 5 but huge potential

It’s not just about rating the draft as a whole, it’s about evaluating individual prospects in isolation.

They may like Humphrey, for eg, but if he is gone by their picks and they don’t rate anyone else then they might want to cast their eyes to next years draft with the knowledge they already have a decent spread of young talent on their list.

While a club in our position, that is trying to close the gap between being a competitive side and a finals team, has more incentive to look to the immediate future and continue to add young players to a list that is not far off entering their window.

We also have a few more roles to fill and would be more open-minded about the pool due to this.

Good post. Oh for some academy selections!

I trust the club know what they are doing these days, so what will be, will be. Just don't want to see us without a first next year. Limits options around trading for a gun if they were available (if we decided to go that way and could afford it).

It's all well and good for people to say we could trade from '24 back into '23, but if we are a top side and next year's draft is very strong, then we may not find that easy.

 

[BigFrizz36]

what an absolute credit to the carlton supporters who have never mucked up in their job - never tried something new, took a risk, learnt a tactic, made a decision from the gut - makes me proud to be a part of the never-change diaspora..........

Thanks mate but I have to admit that I backed salamander to beat hyperno whilst on a footy trip in 1979. Only inches in the margin I know but I can't claim to be perfect.

On a different note is today 100 years from the birth of Charles Schulz.?

 

[thylacine60]

good grief.......

 

[thylacine60]

Thanks mate but I have to admit that I backed salamander to beat hyperno whilst on a footy trip in 1979. Only inches in the margin I know but I can't claim to be perfect.

On a different note is today 100 years from the birth of Charles Schulz.?

hyperno in blinkers that day?

 

[Sheephead]

Well, a potential trade back with SYD hey - music to my ears. I started with Hewett as my 10, changed to a Trade back, because I was unsure of Hewett’s go home. If he is linked to the club at 14, they’ve obviously done or will do due diligence, and that would be a steal. Weddle is one I have gradually been convinced of by others, but I would prefer Hayes at 17. Hayes and Hewett would be my absolute dream draft scenario.

At 29 (or whatever it becomes) - after taking an outside mid and a KPD, I would love a Gilbey, Teal or Dowling. A bigger two way kid with very good disposal who could play that intercept and run role between the arcs.

At our last pick - a KPF/Ruck project like Scully, Verrall or Knobel.

 

[Sickblue]

In terms of the potential trade with Sydney I’d imagine it’s something like this: 10&F2 for 14,17 and future 3rd.

As much as we can dream of 10 for 14 and 17, that ain’t happening!

 

[Stamos]

The pick means a lot if you are coming off a 2/20 season with no sweeping list / coaching changes, meaning improvement was likely to be minimal. In that situation, with our favouritism for the 2019 wooden spoon - you hold a lot more value on your F1.

2018 was a disaster injury wise. 2 wins was not an accurate reflection of where we should have been. It was also going to be the year we bottomed out in terms of our list build.

Who could have predicted that Bolton would have gone so badly in the first half of 2019?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Watching this grab has me even less enthused about taking Hollands.

Granted Carroll is running around against some witches hats, his understanding of the role and running patterns are really good for a guy playing his first game.

His hands are quick under pressure, movement at the periphery of the stoppage is great - there are a couple of moments he has to absorb contact and then pivot quickly to clear the ball - but most impressive is his kicking inside 50. A couple of beautiful lace out passes to key forwards.

Could be the real surprise packet next year, and should be aiming to dislodge LOB. He doesn’t have the fitness base yet, but he has far more strings to his bow as a footballer - the contested side of his game and poise in particular.

I’m still hoping Humphrey slips through, and right now it seems very possible with Gold Coast now seemingly set on Ginbey, McKenzie and Clark potentially coming up the order, and Tstatas drifting back to seduce another club into taking him.

Busslinger and Hewett are my 2nd and 3rd choices.

Hollands and Carroll could play in the same side in the future.

We need to draft mids now or we will struggle in 12-24 months time, unless you have faith in Dow or Philp making it and Ed playing until he is 40.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Not sure I'd say "pretty good chance", the Dogs likely snap him up, but there is a chance.
I wonder who the Swans would be targeting, if they try to move up, instead of out to 2023?

You'd imagine that the Swans would be looking for an extra 1st rounder 2023 as well as retaining a high pick this year - basically trading one of their 1st round picks this year for one next year.

If we're keen to split our 1st round pick this year, hypothetically it could go something like this:
Swans >> pick #14, #17, f2 - Blues >> pick #10, f1

Still reckon we'd be well in the window to get Hollands at #14. Dogs would be keen to jag Busslinger if he's still on the board at their pick imo.

 

[tarczonandjane]

what an absolute credit to the carlton supporters who have never mucked up in their job - never tried something new, took a risk, learnt a tactic, made a decision from the gut - makes me proud to be a part of the never-change diaspora..........

I don’t disagree with your post Thylacine. But in my spare time, I must admit that I do amuse myself by wondering what sort of chair you sit on while you pass judgment on everyone else? Is it a natuzzi? Perhaps a Nick scali? Does it recline? And is it leather or fabric? Or maybe it’s a breakfast bar stool??? So many possibilities!

 

[Stamos]

I realise we are in a different position and are not going to finish right down the bottom.

I, like you, would expect a pick of 14ish. But why are Sydney doing what they are doing? They are experts and know a lot more about the relative strength of the 2 years.

Everyone seems to want to trade up into the top 10-12 this year, and if they can't, they're happy to offload picks. Why?

Are the Swans infallible?
Dees seem to want to trade out of next years' 1st round and into this years. One could mount a strong argument that their list management and talent identification has been better than Sydney's. People thought their moves in 2019 to get Jackson and Pickett were nuts...

 

[thylacine60]

I don’t disagree with your post Thylacine. But in my spare time, I must admit that I do amuse myself by wondering what sort of chair you sit on while you pass judgment on everyone else? Is it a natuzzi? Perhaps a Nick scali? Does it recline? And is it leather or fabric? Or maybe it’s a breakfast bar stool??? So many possibilities!

chair?

 

[Stamos]

Still reckon we'd be well in the window to get Hollands at #14. Dogs would be keen to jag Busslinger if he's still on the board at their pick imo.

For Hollands to make that pick (which will be 15 or 16), assuming Swans trade up, needs Allen, Busslinger Jefferson (all plausible) And 1 other to go ahead of him. You'd think he's be in the mix for all of Dogs, Eagles and Dees.
It certainly could happen, but it's probably not that likely (especially as us getting to do a trade probably means Suns have taken Ginbey).

 

[macky99]

Hollands and Carroll could play in the same side in the future.

We need to draft mids now or we will struggle in 12-24 months time, unless you have faith in Dow or Philp making it and Ed playing until he is 40.

Dow & Philp and Ed Curnow were not even part of the team last year.
We have added Cerra & Hewitt and Acres to boost our mid field stocks in the last 12mths, Walsh is still early 20's Cripps & Kennedy are in good shape and no doubt Carroll should be ready to go very soon.

The age profile is good in this area and it is not the only area that could do with further improvement.

 

[BigFrizz36]

hyperno in blinkers that day?

Not sure. I was a Roy Higgins fan. Both Harry and Roy would have got months now for excessive whip use.

Our trip away committee must have been poor that year. We drove to Echuca.

Anyway back to the draft. Twomeys mock comes out tonight I think which generally is close to being on the money.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Dow & Philp and Ed Curnow were not even part of the team last year.
We have added Cerra & Hewitt and Acres to boost our mid field stocks in the last 12mths, Walsh is still early 20's Cripps & Kennedy are in good shape and no doubt Carroll should be ready to go very soon.

The age profile is good in this area and it is not the only area that could do with further improvement.

However Michael Voss has gone on record to suggest that that's exactly what we are looking to do with our first pick on Monday night.

It will be interesting but I would suggest that we will be getting some sort of midfielder with our first pick (unless we are playing a game of bluff)