Preview Round 7: Essendon vs Geelong - Sunday 30th April - 1:10pm - MCG

[Lore]

I won’t have had time to recover from this loss to the Pies (that Collingwood chant shudder), and now we need to brace ourselves for the annual belting from the Cats? My goodness.

Some of those things can be irksome at times but someone in the game thread called it a “mating call” and ever since then if I hear it I laugh

 

[Happyskeret]

Great Scotts ……. !

 

[Megabattimus]

Okay so, I took a stab at predicting what the ladder could look like by the end of Round 15:



It's my first attempt, so I'll probably do others as rounds go by. To me, I don't think you can get a true read on a team until they're all through the byes. Once they've all played fourteen games, you can really start to predict how they'll finish up. Teams can either defy predictions or succumb to them after that, but it's still better than saying so and so team is good after like six games or whatever.

Anyway, relevant to us, here's how I've got it shaking out:



Margin on the losses might blow out (the Geelong one especially), we might lose some of the games I think we'll win (Port, Richmond, Carlton), and some of the wins might end up a lot closer. But overall, I think it's pretty good for a glass half full first attempt at trying to see where we'll be come the end of the byes. If we ended up 10-4, my lid would probably be off. But I'd settle for 7-7, provided the loses weren't blowouts.

Anyway, fingers crossed we can snag two wins out of this four game block. Losing all four would be super rough. Though even if we only get one win out of it and we keep the three loses to within twenty points, I reckon it's a pass. Especially if the one win is against Richmond.

 

[Bombers36]

At least its at the G not down in Geelong! I feel we can take it up to the Cats if we play like we did against the Pies for the 1st 3 quarters.
As long as we can be competitive I'll be happy. Scott has already flagged there will be a few changes - I'm predicting 6..

OUT: Lav, Heppell, Phillips, Snelling, Perkins, Davey
IN: Baldwin, Hind, Jones, Merrett, Voss, Hobbs

Team;-

Kelly Zerk Baldwin
Redman Ridley McGrath
Martin Merrett Durham
Langford Stringer Shiel
Weideman Voss Menzie

Draper Setterfield Parish

Bench: Caldwell Hobbs Hind Jones
SUB: Davey

 

[naraku]

Of course they've hit form now. At least we get Zach back...is Baldwin fit to help cover Lav?

Very difficult against Geelong at the best of times.
Again, if we can hang around the premiers and be within a few goals at the end then that's probably a win for us.

 

[Lore]

Talk about a short turnaround, Parish is slated to do the Country Game press conference with Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

36

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

this afternoon. No days off for you!

 

[faible]

I won’t have had time to recover from this loss to the Pies (that Collingwood chant shudder), and now we need to brace ourselves for the annual belting from the Cats? My goodness.

Think of it this way; in less than a week you get two unpleasant losses out of the way.

 

[donlav99]

5 days not ideal prep physically, but mentally it's good for them to not dwell on that result for too long. Review & move on.

Whoever comes in for Lav has a daunting task ahead.

This could get very ugly if the midfield cant get first use and the cats get fast entries.

 

[TheGrizz]

Could be a soft kill Sunday coming off the short break after a heart breaking loss.

Geelong with an 8 day break too and a soft kill at home against Sydney.

Inexplicable that the AFL didn't schedule Geelong for Sunday against Sydney to at least make it a 5 vs 7 day break and not 5 vs 8.

 

[TheGrizz]

Okay so, I took a stab at predicting what the ladder could look like by the end of Round 15:

View attachment 1670418

It's my first attempt, so I'll probably do others as rounds go by. To me, I don't think you can get a true read on a team until they're all through the byes. Once they've all played fourteen games, you can really start to predict how they'll finish up. Teams can either defy predictions or succumb to them after that, but it's still better than saying so and so team is good after like six games or whatever.

Anyway, relevant to us, here's how I've got it shaking out:

View attachment 1670421

Margin on the losses might blow out (the Geelong one especially), we might lose some of the games I think we'll win (Port, Richmond, Carlton), and some of the wins might end up a lot closer. But overall, I think it's pretty good for a glass half full first attempt at trying to see where we'll be come the end of the byes. If we ended up 10-4, my lid would probably be off. But I'd settle for 7-7, provided the loses weren't blowouts.

Anyway, fingers crossed we can snag two wins out of this four game block. Losing all four would be super rough. Though even if we only get one win out of it and we keep the three loses to within twenty points, I reckon it's a pass. Especially if the one win is against Richmond.

Gonna be tough to beat Brisbane and Carlton.
Being 8 and 6 at round 15 though is a pretty good effort.

 

[fpm84]

Geelong with an 8 day break too and a soft kill at home against Sydney.

Inexplicable that the AFL didn't schedule Geelong for Sunday against Sydney to at least make it a 5 vs 7 day break and not 5 vs 8.

I can see your point re fairness of the fixture, but Cats v Swans was the GF rematch (and was supposed to be the opening of our new stand at KP - now delayed to later this year) which was always going to get a primetime Fri/Sat night timeslot.

 

[TheGrizz]

I can see your point re fairness of the fixture, but Cats v Swans was the GF rematch (and was supposed to be the opening of our new stand at KP - now delayed to later this year) which was always going to get a primetime Fri/Sat night timeslot.

Then schedule the game for a different round. Not hard.

 

[Ati Tude]

I assume we will be fine despite the 5 day turnaround. We didn't play last quarter against the Pies so should have plenty of run in the legs. Bit like those 15 minute quarter matches in 2020 to enable short turnarounds. Anyone convinced?

 

[Vander18]

Ridley on Cameron bzt on Hawkins I don’t think it changes much. Does mont come in as an interceptor to help cover? I’m not sure but I don’t think ridley is the worst match up for Cameron. Whoever is on him is in for a tough day.

Think Ridley is probably our best match up for Cameron. Neither Lav or BZK have the wheels to stay with him.

Ridley has better running ability plus the spring, height and reach to challenge him in the air. Cameron will have him for strength but good luck finding a defender who doesn’t concede something to him …..

It’s still a big ask for him but he’s as well equipped as pretty much anyone else in the comp to try and stop a rampaging Jezza.

TBH - BZK on Hawkins probably worries me more.

 

[LB#16]

Then schedule the game for a different round. Not hard.

The whole idea of Melbourne vs Richmond on the night before ANZAC Day should be that it's Collingwood vs Richmond and Essendon vs Melbourne the week after for a similar turnaround.

 

[faible]

Think Ridley is probably our best match up for Cameron. Neither Lav or BZK have the wheels to stay with him.

Ridley has better running ability plus the spring, height and reach to challenge him in the air. Cameron will have him for strength but good luck finding a defender who doesn’t concede something to him …..

It’s still a big ask for him but he’s as well equipped as pretty much anyone else in the comp to try and stop a rampaging Jezza.

TBH - BZK on Hawkins probably worries me more.

Ridley not being able to play the intercept role down back is also a win for Geelong, so might be that the plan is to let Cameron go up the field and do whatever he wants and play a negating defender on him up forward trying to let Ridley come across as support

 

[Ati Tude]

The whole idea of Melbourne vs Richmond on the night before ANZAC Day should be that it's Collingwood vs Richmond and Essendon vs Melbourne the week after for a similar turnaround.

Makes too much sense. Thank goodness next year is a leap year and we can miss a Wednesday game for it. And with a Thursday game, the short turnaround will be for Anzac Day rather than for the following week ie Ess and Coll play whoever on a Saturday and then both back up for Anzac Day on a Thursday off 5 days.

 

[jdstorm]

You don't move Weird back after that game.

Being at the ground he wasn’t that good aside from a his goals which came out of Moore having to go to Langford because he was a huge problem for them.

Don’t rate him in the contest. Would be curious to see if he could be a good Tim English style ruck if the magnets were moved around like that

 

[faible]

Makes too much sense. Thank goodness next year is a leap year and we can miss a Wednesday game for it. And with a Thursday game, the short turnaround will be for Anzac Day rather than for the following week ie Ess and Coll play whoever on a Saturday and then both back up for Anzac Day on a Thursday off 5 days.

Instead; AFL will give one team the Friday night game and the other the Sunday game so the turnarounds aren't the same.

 

[wichidi]

Then schedule the game for a different round. Not hard.

Another way to look at it is from the pies perspective. They have to travel to radelaide to play a hot crows. Not an easy turnaround either.
Both propositions are tough although I reckon ours is harder.

 

[andleanback]

Being at the ground he wasn’t that good aside from a his goals which came out of Moore having to go to Langford because he was a huge problem for them.

Don’t rate him in the contest. Would be curious to see if he could be a good Tim English style ruck if the magnets were moved around like that

Being at the ground I thought he was clearly one of our best. If he kicks that goals in the 4th, 3 goals 8 marks and 14 touches is a great game for a key forward.

 

[Mikevk123]

In- Merrett, Hind, Montgonmerie, Bryan, Hayes
Out- Durham, Menzie, Laverde, Phillips, Snelling

B- Hayes Zerk-Thatcher Kelly
HB- Redman Ridley McGrath
C- Martin Setterfield Merrett
HF- Perkins Langford Caldwell
F- Davey Weideman Stringer
FOLL- Draper Hobbs Parish
I/C- Shiel, Bryan, Hind, Heppell
Sub- Montgonmerie

 

[faible]

In- Merrett, Hind, Montgonmerie, Bryan, Hayes
Out- Durham, Menzie, Laverde, Phillips, Snelling

B- Hayes Zerk-Thatcher Kelly
HB- Redman Ridley McGrath
C- Martin Setterfield Merrett
HF- Perkins Langford Caldwell
F- Davey Weideman Stringer
FOLL- Draper Hobbs Parish
I/C- Shiel, Bryan, Hind, Heppell
Sub- Montgonmerie

Hayes is very raw, I can't see him playing

 

[andleanback]

Hayes is very raw, I can't see him playing

And if he’s given taste this year, it definitely won’t be against geelong. Talk about hanging a kid out to dry.

 

[faible]

And if he’s given taste this year, it definitely won’t be against geelong. Talk about hanging a kid out to dry.

'hey mate we're going to give you a go at AFL level'

'sick! who am I playing on?'

'Jeremy Cameron.'