List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[Monocle]

The more I see the more I think this guy is a forward that could spend minutes as an outside mid. So athletic and clean but I still question his toughness and you need that to make it at Afl level.

Looks like a wingman to me, that way he gets to make the most out of his speed and his endurance.
But you are correct in so much as him being very outside.
His marking ability ( although its wasn't the best in this particular clip ), is a standout feature of his game.

As far as his toughness is concerned, I too have some questions about that, for me shades of Cale Morton at times in the way he stands off packs.
Needs to develop some aspect of an inside game, otherwise he will be much easier to negate will a shutdown player.

He is a very smart footballer and his running patterns are good, so both these attributes will assist him when coupled with his speed and endurance, to become a very good footballer.

Just as almost all the draft cohort are, lots to like about their games, yet so much that still needs to be developed.

Seems fickle, but so much can change in a lot of these kids games and where they move up or down on Clubs Draft Boards, in just a short 8 month period.

 

[ziad]

Lets look at this for a second. Bailey Williams is 201cm, is a strong athlete and has nominal reach for his height.

Mitch Edwards is between 208-210cm from my reckoning 2 weeks ago and looks to have maybe a 1-2cm reach advantage for his height. Now a 210cm player nominally has an arm thats 4cm taller than a 201cm player. If they have a 1-2cm reach advantage nominal to their height all of a sudden the reach difference between the two is 15+cm. Mitch Edwards is much more athletic than mason cox but probably not quite as athletic as Williams. But from a 3 step jump Williams might be lucky to have a 2 inch leap advantage over Edwards.

Edwards is still growing too. Say he's 210cm with boots on atm and finishes at 210cm without. He'll be AFL listed at 212, is a better mark, better around the ground, has significantly better general skills than Williams and is a much better finisher. Also significantly better ruck craft at the same age. Edwards will take 5 years to develop but say he's drafted this year, at 23 turning 24 going into 2027 he's listed at 212cm and is 105 odd kg's. Now how do you think Williams or Jackson match up to that? How about at 25 turning 26 when he's the same 212cm but is 112-120kg's and Williams is 29 and has started to lose or has already lost his Athletic Edge?

The only thing that guys like Williams or Draper have on their side is their aggression. If guys like Edwards develop the aggression to match their height and skills advantage then it's game over. Edwards is certainly much more athletic than Gawn is post knee surgery and actually has good footskills. How do guys like Williams or Jackson go vs Gawn? He's more aggressive than english and a much more natural ruck. Lets say worst case scenario he ends up being a similar player to English but is 2 inches taller and 7-8kg's heavier. They don't have a hope in hell in a centre square scenario.

There are a lot of 210 athletes in the world - a team would only need two if the crash and bash is eliminated.

 

[JackOutback]

Surely eliminating the bounce isn’t going to eliminate the bash and crash ruckman. Yes, leap and reach will matter in the centre square but throw-ins and ball-up’s around the ground remain the sand where you can rag doll your opponent out of the way.

 

[briztoon]

And almost all play basketball. My guess is Mason Cox is the only active player that tall playing AFL, next would be English, Gawn and Lobb. Not easy to find genuinely coordinated athletes in our sport that tall.

There are a lot of 210 athletes in the world - a team would only need two if the crash and bash is eliminated.

 

[Rowan18]

Because umpires are getting worse and worse at it with more and more umpires (I actually think there is a direction for them to not practice it) and it will be weeded out and everything will be thrown up.

In the centre in particular a taller ruck with a longer reach and decent athleticism will be much more serviceable than a really strong lump like Darcy etc. It may actually make having a quality ruck more important. Also with the 6,6,6 rule thrown into this it means significantly more score launches from centre clearances.

I believe the ideal for teams of the future is actually only 6 genuine talls in the 22.

Is this why teams seem to give away 666 infringements a couple of times a game? I notice they always give a warning first and then throw the ball up. I can't figure out why they throw it up instead of bouncing it when this happens, but the frequency of it makes me think teams are happy to infringe for some reason.

 

[THE A5]

And almost all play basketball. My guess is Mason Cox is the only active player that tall playing AFL, next would be English, Gawn and Lobb. Not easy to find genuinely coordinated athletes in our sport that tall.

Witts and I don’t believe Big O is 204cm’s either as he looks much taller

 

[briztoon]

Witts and I don’t believe Big O is 204cm’s either as he looks much taller

Last I looked 204cm is not 210cm and that was the point/post I was replying to. There's very, very few genuinely that hight playing in the AFL. I'll give you Witts as almost there, but he's also earth bound these days.

There's quite a few young athletic rucks in the 204cm to 206cm range on lists at the moment. We'll see them come through in the next 3 years or so.


Big O sort of highlights WCE_phil point. He's not very athletic at all. I call him the Iron Giant, for anyone who remembers the kids animated movie. He's big boned, and solid as ****. Watching him run at training, you expect the ground to shudder, just has this mechanical running style with massive strides and a sold thud every time his foot hits the ground.

Daniher get's so much higher, when he goes in to the ruck, and actually decides to contest the jump.

 

[briztoon]

Is this why teams seem to give away 666 infringements a couple of times a game? I notice they always give a warning first and then throw the ball up. I can't figure out why they throw it up instead of bouncing it when this happens, but the frequency of it makes me think teams are happy to infringe for some reason.

Most infringements are due to teams ****ing up rotations, particularly after the sub has been activated, and players are unsure where they're supposed to be lining up. Or teams are trying to sneak a winger off the back of the square as a 7th defender.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

So here is the Lore update on the draft picks by club after round 7


Here is the weekly update

Of note is the position of multiple R1 pick holders
GWS - holding picks 3 and 7 with a suit of Future picks to look to offer the holder of the Harley Cup
Dogs - holding 9 and 15 which feels unattractive
Dees - holding 5 and 17 which I like the Phil_wce looking at exploring a trade for our future first (these are the pillars not the full picture)
Norf - holding 4 and 14 which are unlikely to be traded to go up (been burnt on the No 1 pick and need quantity as well as quality)

5,404 is a load of points. It would be nice for the AFL to offer us another R2 after our R2 meaning 19 and 20 which would take our hand to over 6,000 points.

We might be Sh1te at the moment but at least we have a hand that is capable of starting to address it. Richmond - not so. Hawks look very light on for a club rebuilding (I really thought that were screwed over by Sydney in what they gave up last November to move up the board).

 

[joeyavalanche]

Just here.

And no thanks for the offer.

Honestly, who posts this much on an oppositions board?

And spend half the time talking about Brisbane


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[bzparkes]

Honestly, get a life. Who posts this much on an oppositions board?


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Who cares?

 

[dinnaz]

Lol -more likely he refuses to sign any contract and then walks straight to us in the preseason draft.

*Wheelchairs to us

 

[Obeanie1]

Here’s the thing about targeting Gold Coast first round pick, forget what ever you’re offering in the future, they’re going to want a fair amount of points in this draft for it.

Because they have to pay for kids in this year’s draft with those points.

You could possibly get it for your future second round pick, plus picks 33, 38, 52 & 57 in this year’s draft.

That would leave you with your first round pick, Gold Coast’s first round pick, and your second round pick. Then your really hoping Livingstone slips to pick 41.

Suns already have two 2nds. And 3 3rd rounders.

They wont need all those addiitonal picks for points plus what they currently hold.

Ive done the math. The 25% discount is quite helpfull.

Reckon they need 1400 points for their 1st kid and the other are 2nd rounders which then only cost 3rd round picks after discounts.

 

[Obeanie1]

Honestly, who posts this much on an oppositions board?

And spend half the time talking about Brisbane


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Dont be rude.

And you are.

If you are that triggered use ignore.

Plenty of posters on here enjoy Briztoon's posts.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

From the perspective of where I see development in 4-5 years.

Put hough in a back pocket, I don't see him as a winger.
Bazzo to me is a third tall not a CHB. He could reach that level but i'd say it's a reach.
Slot Barnett in at FB / second ruck imo.
Waterman is also a deeper third tall and does his best work on a lead. Allen is much more the CHF type.
Burgiel to HB or HF but i'd love to see his skills, touch and speed at HB. I think he's better with the ball coming at him rather than having to make the play in the front half.
Culley to the IC, he's the second string bull on baller. You can't play two defensive centremen at the same time IMO moving forwards.
Move Hewett into Culley's spot on field and we need another balanced mid who's maybe a bit more contested than Hewitt at this stage.

Based on your trade scenario of going all in this draft:

Bazzo — Hough
Evans Curtin Wilson
Chesser Ginbey Jones
Culley Allen Tholstrup
Watson Livingstone/Jilliams Long
Edwards Hewett duursma/mckercher
Int (from): Burgiel Billiams Barnett hedwards ledwards Jamieson hall

A lot to like here. Options for full back in, as you say, Barnett or perhaps jamieson but this would be my number one free agent signing for Sam Taylor when he becomes FA.

I’d consider if taking Gilbey as a second MSD draftee reduces the need for evans and/or Wilson.

Given he costs nothing take English as a FA to protect Edwards as development and Barnett/Williams can chop out in the mean time.

I also like the aggression and all round threat Culley provides in the forward line.

If it’s the final piece and Livingstone/jilliams don’t make it throw the kitchen sink at a McDonald/van Rooyan Ff as the final piece. Probably only light on in elite minefield depth but could potentially trade 2026 F1 into 2025 to target a high level mid before the draft becomes porked by tas.

This draft doesn’t take into account any potential priority

 

[SumaGodCoach]

So here is the Lore update on the draft picks by club after round 7
View attachment 1675937

Here is the weekly update

Of note is the position of multiple R1 pick holders
GWS - holding picks 3 and 7 with a suit of Future picks to look to offer the holder of the Harley Cup
Dogs - holding 9 and 15 which feels unattractive
Dees - holding 5 and 17 which I like the Phil_wce looking at exploring a trade for our future first (these are the pillars not the full picture)
Norf - holding 4 and 14 which are unlikely to be traded to go up (been burnt on the No 1 pick and need quantity as well as quality)

5,404 is a load of points. It would be nice for the AFL to offer us another R2 after our R2 meaning 19 and 20 which would take our hand to over 6,000 points.

We might be Sh1te at the moment but at least we have a hand that is capable of starting to address it. Richmond - not so. Hawks look very light on for a club rebuilding (I really thought that were screwed over by Sydney in what they gave up last November to move up the board).

I believe the Hawks have a couple of father/son kids that they need to match bids on this year, which is why they didn't mind trading their future 2nd and 3rd. They still definitely overpaid though.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Here’s the thing about targeting Gold Coast first round pick, forget what ever you’re offering in the future, they’re going to want a fair amount of points in this draft for it.

Because they have to pay for kids in this year’s draft with those points.

You could possibly get it for your future second round pick, plus picks 33, 38, 52 & 57 in this year’s draft.

That would leave you with your first round pick, Gold Coast’s first round pick, and your second round pick. Then your really hoping Livingstone slips to pick 41.

The reality is that the Suns will lose players at the end of this year and again next year. Against that backdrop the continue to bank future picks. It is one of the reasons they have never made their mark on the game.

If the wanted, they could go for a pick ahead of Walters and then be prepared to go into deficit next year. Hell, why not go for Harley??? What sort of message would that send!!!

 

[Obeanie1]

The reality is that the Suns will lose players at the end of this year and again next year. Against that backdrop the continue to bank future picks. It is one of the reasons they have never made their mark on the game.

If the wanted, they could go for a pick ahead of Walters and then be prepared to go into deficit next year. Hell, why not go for Harley??? What sort of message would that send!!!

Exactly right.

Banking future picks will soon be detrimental due to the Tassie side diluting the draft.

Coupled with the Suns improvement stagnating why wouldn't they go hard in this deeper draft. Trade for pick 2 and land the 2nd best rated player PLUS Walter. Get as much high quality talent in sooner not next year.

 

[eagles rule]

If we we’re looking at Buller than maybe we are looking at another tall that has attracted interest from scouts 200 cm Fwd/Ruck in 25 yr old Brandon Ryan from the VFL he has kicked 13 goals - 5 points from 4 games ..


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[bh90210fan]

I’d be going for Hansen jr first up and looking at a fwd/ruck after that

 

[CountryLad]

Suns already have two 2nds. And 3 3rd rounders.

They wont need all those addiitonal picks for points plus what they currently hold.

Ive done the math. The 25% discount is quite helpfull.

Reckon they need 1400 points for their 1st kid and the other are 2nd rounders which then only cost 3rd round picks after discounts.

Jake Rodgers could possibly go 1st round.
Walter still could go top 5 if he has a good carnival him and Archer Reid are the best two key forward prospects currently.

 

[WCE_phil]

Jake Rodgers could possibly go 1st round.
Walter still could go top 5 if he has a good carnival him and Archer Reid are the best two key forward prospects currently.

Rodgers most likely to Rise and I agree could go late first round.
Walter could and I thought likely to slide but I still think a first round bid, that and he just kicked 8 goals on the weekend from 9 marks and 16 disposals. If he puts in a couple more performances like that plus has a decent champs he is still very much a top 5 bid.
Ethan Read mid to late second round imo. Everyone knows they will take him.

Archer Reid on early season form looking like sliding imo, as is Curtin. But once again as I tend to say it's a very long year.

 

[CountryLad]

Rodgers most likely to Rise and I agree could go late first round.
Walter could and I thought likely to slide but I still think a first round bid, that and he just kicked 8 goals on the weekend from 9 marks and 16 disposals. If he puts in a couple more performances like that plus has a decent champs he is still very much a top 5 bid.
Ethan Read mid to late second round imo. Everyone knows they will take him.

Archer Reid on early season form looking like sliding imo, as is Curtin. But once again as I tend to say it's a very long year.

Yeah A Reid has been quiet but I think carrying an injury so will need a big second half of the season.

Walter just had a big game like you say and with the allies having a pretty decent squad he could kick a few bags.
McKercher, Rodgers and Cleary get on top in the midfield which will happen at some stage he will get good supply.

Is Sanders Allies or Vic Metro I know he’s from Tasmania but playing for the dragons?
If he’s allies then they have a very good midfield group

 

[Obeanie1]

Jake Rodgers could possibly go 1st round.
Walter still could go top 5 if he has a good carnival him and Archer Reid are the best two key forward prospects currently.

I'll crunch some numbers later.....now done.

Points needed to match say a pick 5 bid, a pick 16 bid and a pick 25 bid.

OK with 25% discount bids at 5,16 and 25 equate to 2,75 points.

Picks the Suns currently hold to pay excluding their 1st round pick.

So picks 25,30,44,49,56 and 62 add up to 2,351 points.

Shortfall of 425 points equates to pick 40.

How many list spots they have after trades in and out also will be a factor on what picks they use.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

So here is the Lore update on the draft picks by club after round 7
View attachment 1675937

Here is the weekly update

Of note is the position of multiple R1 pick holders
GWS - holding picks 3 and 7 with a suit of Future picks to look to offer the holder of the Harley Cup
Dogs - holding 9 and 15 which feels unattractive
Dees - holding 5 and 17 which I like the Phil_wce looking at exploring a trade for our future first (these are the pillars not the full picture)
Norf - holding 4 and 14 which are unlikely to be traded to go up (been burnt on the No 1 pick and need quantity as well as quality)

5,404 is a load of points. It would be nice for the AFL to offer us another R2 after our R2 meaning 19 and 20 which would take our hand to over 6,000 points.

We might be Sh1te at the moment but at least we have a hand that is capable of starting to address it. Richmond - not so. Hawks look very light on for a club rebuilding (I really thought that were screwed over by Sydney in what they gave up last November to move up the board).

Be mindful that Norf had to trade their compo picks and they were not allowed to just trade them for other picks.

It was fine for Norf, they had a collection of kids needing mature bodies around them. We don't have that issue, we have plenty of list clogger mature bodies as it is.

If we got that compensation deal (I personally doubt we get anything, we're wealthy with recent success so AFL will argue we need to make a proper fist of digging ourselves out first), we might as well not bother with it.