List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[Chump Change]

What will the bounce be replaced by?

A canon with flames and confetti.

 

[WCE_phil]

I've seen this mentioned throughout the thread.
What will the bounce be replaced by? And why will it bring about the need for taller rucks? Genuine question.

Because umpires are getting worse and worse at it with more and more umpires (I actually think there is a direction for them to not practice it) and it will be weeded out and everything will be thrown up.

In the centre in particular a taller ruck with a longer reach and decent athleticism will be much more serviceable than a really strong lump like Darcy etc. It may actually make having a quality ruck more important. Also with the 6,6,6 rule thrown into this it means significantly more score launches from centre clearances.

I believe the ideal for teams of the future is actually only 6 genuine talls in the 22.

 

[Goroyals22]

A canon with flames and confetti.

What about one of those giant fire breathing eagles.. apparently they are being purchased at the moment

 

[Chump Change]

What about one of those giant fire breathing eagles.. apparently they are being purchased at the moment

That's an opportunity to save some of that money we're spending by dual purposing those fire breathing eagles. Ucking Toddy is gunna be proud of us.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

No idea about retirements, they just strike me as two players that might be unlikely to get back before the final rounds of the season, in which case we may as well rule them out in the next couple of weeks.

LTI list candidate is more likely to be Cole as NicNat may not play next year so they would want a farewell game against Crows in round 24

 

[CountryLad]

We will either get Reid or Moir.

They both look unreal.

Both will be vital keys in a rebuild

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Most of the hype over Moir is from last year. Hopefully he can play a really strong 18s state carnival and stamp himself as a top 5 pick.
Would like to see him play some SANFL league like Reid, Duursma and a few others are in the VFL atm.

 

[WCE_phil]

People see the highlights of Moir and everyone thinks he's a top two pick. Until he can nail down some solid midfield time or dominate from the HFF with big numbers he's purely that. A highlights machine and massive tease.

 

[CountryLad]

Potentially target Gold Coast’s pick as it might be swallowed up with their academy pick anyways.

If Gold Coast put there pick on the table every club will be eyeing it not just us. It’s a long shot but I guess you can never say never it’s just unlikely.

 

[salo]

Because umpires are getting worse and worse at it with more and more umpires (I actually think there is a direction for them to not practice it) and it will be weeded out and everything will be thrown up.

In the centre in particular a taller ruck with a longer reach and decent athleticism will be much more serviceable than a really strong lump like Darcy etc. It may actually make having a quality ruck more important. Also with the 6,6,6 rule thrown into this it means significantly more score launches from centre clearances.

I believe the ideal for teams of the future is actually only 6 genuine talls in the 22.

Thanks for your thoughts Phil.

With a more consistent and predictable 'ball up' I'd almost expect the more coordinated, athletic types (in the Naitanui or Blicavs mould) to have the advantage at centre bounces. The big giants with a massive reach and strength to hold positon should dominate around the ground.

Wonder if we'll see tagging roles come back into fashion for teams with a ruck disadvantage?

 

[THE A5]

Moir looks good but Phil is right. Also reckon he would be a nice pick if we had a solid unit of young mids. Ginbey looks the best of them but the likes of Culley, Hewett and Chessar are still un proven

 

[CountryLad]

The more I see the more I think this guy is a forward that could spend minutes as an outside mid. So athletic and clean but I still question his toughness and you need that to make it at Afl level.

 

[WCE_phil]

Thanks for your thoughts Phil.

With a more consistent and predictable 'ball up' I'd almost expect the more coordinated, athletic types (in the Naitanui or Blicavs mould) to have the advantage at centre bounces. The big giants with a massive reach and strength to hold positon should dominate around the ground.

Wonder if we'll see tagging roles come back into fashion for teams with a ruck disadvantage?

Lets look at this for a second. Bailey Williams is 201cm, is a strong athlete and has nominal reach for his height.

Mitch Edwards is between 208-210cm from my reckoning 2 weeks ago and looks to have maybe a 1-2cm reach advantage for his height. Now a 210cm player nominally has an arm thats 4cm taller than a 201cm player. If they have a 1-2cm reach advantage nominal to their height all of a sudden the reach difference between the two is 15+cm. Mitch Edwards is much more athletic than mason cox but probably not quite as athletic as Williams. But from a 3 step jump Williams might be lucky to have a 2 inch leap advantage over Edwards.

Edwards is still growing too. Say he's 210cm with boots on atm and finishes at 210cm without. He'll be AFL listed at 212, is a better mark, better around the ground, has significantly better general skills than Williams and is a much better finisher. Also significantly better ruck craft at the same age. Edwards will take 5 years to develop but say he's drafted this year, at 23 turning 24 going into 2027 he's listed at 212cm and is 105 odd kg's. Now how do you think Williams or Jackson match up to that? How about at 25 turning 26 when he's the same 212cm but is 112-120kg's and Williams is 29 and has started to lose or has already lost his Athletic Edge?

The only thing that guys like Williams or Draper have on their side is their aggression. If guys like Edwards develop the aggression to match their height and skills advantage then it's game over. Edwards is certainly much more athletic than Gawn is post knee surgery and actually has good footskills. How do guys like Williams or Jackson go vs Gawn? He's more aggressive than english and a much more natural ruck. Lets say worst case scenario he ends up being a similar player to English but is 2 inches taller and 7-8kg's heavier. They don't have a hope in hell in a centre square scenario.

 

[eagles rule]

The point is that if you get offered 3 x top 10 picks for a number 1 pick (which could be a possibility this year) there is a higher probability you will end up with more elite players with more top end picks rather than a single pick.

if a club is willing to offer 3 high picks what does this say about the quality of the No1 Pick player ?

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Looks alright to me. And you’ve left off Barnett, Dewar and Baker, just off the top of my head.

The fact we can fill out an entire side with under 26s and Richmond can barely fill two thirds of one is a point in our favour, surely.

Fixed it for you. Delisted a few and changed positions to best suited spot.

This is what we need to draft and recruit for.

FB: ---- ---- ----
HB : Jones, Bazzo, -----
C: Chesser, Ginbey, Hough
HF: -------, Waterman, ----
FF: Long, Allen, ----
R: Williams. Hewett, Culley
I/C: Jamieson, Burgiel edwards, ----

Barnett dewer baker.




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[CountryLad]

if a club is willing to offer 3 high picks what does this say about the quality of the No1 Pick player ?

He’s good

 

[Evo47]

Lets look at this for a second. Bailey Williams is 201cm, is a strong athlete and has nominal reach for his height.

Mitch Edwards is between 208-210cm from my reckoning 2 weeks ago and looks to have maybe a 1-2cm reach advantage for his height. Now a 210cm player nominally has an arm thats 4cm taller than a 201cm player. If they have a 1-2cm reach advantage nominal to their height all of a sudden the reach difference between the two is 15+cm. Mitch Edwards is much more athletic than mason cox but probably not quite as athletic as Williams. But from a 3 step jump Williams might be lucky to have a 2 inch leap advantage over Edwards.

Edwards is still growing too. Say he's 210cm with boots on atm and finishes at 210cm without. He'll be AFL listed at 212, is a better mark, better around the ground, has significantly better general skills than Williams and is a much better finisher. Also significantly better ruck craft at the same age. Edwards will take 5 years to develop but say he's drafted this year, at 23 turning 24 going into 2027 he's listed at 212cm and is 105 odd kg's. Now how do you think Williams or Jackson match up to that? How about at 25 turning 26 when he's the same 212cm but is 112-120kg's and Williams is 29 and has started to lose or has already lost his Athletic Edge?

The only thing that guys like Williams or Draper have on their side is their aggression. If guys like Edwards develop the aggression to match their height and skills advantage then it's game over. Edwards is certainly much more athletic than Gawn is post knee surgery and actually has good footskills. How do guys like Williams or Jackson go vs Gawn? He's more aggressive than english and a much more natural ruck. Lets say worst case scenario he ends up being a similar player to English but is 2 inches taller and 7-8kg's heavier. They don't have a hope in hell in a centre square scenario.

Could Edwards play as a permanent forward? Sounds like he has a lot of the attributes to play deep forward.

 

[WCE_phil]

Fixed it for you. Delisted a few and changed positions to best suited spot.

This is what we need to draft and recruit for.

FB: ---- ---- ----
HB : Jones, Bazzo, -----
C: Chesser, Ginbey, Hough
HF: -------, Waterman, ----
FF: Long, Allen, ----
R: Williams. Hewett, Culley
I/C: Jamieson, Burgiel edwards, ----

Barnett dewer baker.




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From the perspective of where I see development in 4-5 years.

Put hough in a back pocket, I don't see him as a winger.
Bazzo to me is a third tall not a CHB. He could reach that level but i'd say it's a reach.
Slot Barnett in at FB / second ruck imo.
Waterman is also a deeper third tall and does his best work on a lead. Allen is much more the CHF type.
Burgiel to HB or HF but i'd love to see his skills, touch and speed at HB. I think he's better with the ball coming at him rather than having to make the play in the front half.
Culley to the IC, he's the second string bull on baller. You can't play two defensive centremen at the same time IMO moving forwards.
Move Hewett into Culley's spot on field and we need another balanced mid who's maybe a bit more contested than Hewitt at this stage.

 

[Obeanie1]

It's gotta be crippa on the LTI, what the point of coming back for a possible 4 games, sit out the season and get cherry ripe for next.

Cripps is the obvious.

Why rush back from a broken ankle this season?

 

[WCE_phil]

Could Edwards play as a permanent forward? Sounds like he has a lot of the attributes to play deep forward.

I don't think so no, but I think Coen Livingstone certainly could play deep forward.

 

[salo]

Lets look at this for a second. Bailey Williams is 201cm, is a strong athlete and has nominal reach for his height.

Mitch Edwards is between 208-210cm from my reckoning 2 weeks ago and looks to have maybe a 1-2cm reach advantage for his height. Now a 210cm player nominally has an arm thats 4cm taller than a 201cm player. If they have a 1-2cm reach advantage nominal to their height all of a sudden the reach difference between the two is 15+cm. Mitch Edwards is much more athletic than mason cox but probably not quite as athletic as Williams. But from a 3 step jump Williams might be lucky to have a 2 inch leap advantage over Edwards.

Edwards is still growing too. Say he's 210cm with boots on atm and finishes at 210cm without. He'll be AFL listed at 212, is a better mark, better around the ground, has significantly better general skills than Williams and is a much better finisher. Also significantly better ruck craft at the same age. Edwards will take 5 years to develop but say he's drafted this year, at 23 turning 24 going into 2027 he's listed at 212cm and is 105 odd kg's. Now how do you think Williams or Jackson match up to that? How about at 25 turning 26 when he's the same 212cm but is 112-120kg's and Williams is 29 and has started to lose or has already lost his Athletic Edge?

The only thing that guys like Williams or Draper have on their side is their aggression. If guys like Edwards develop the aggression to match their height and skills advantage then it's game over. Edwards is certainly much more athletic than Gawn is post knee surgery and actually has good footskills. How do guys like Williams or Jackson go vs Gawn? He's more aggressive than english and a much more natural ruck. Lets say worst case scenario he ends up being a similar player to English but is 2 inches taller and 7-8kg's heavier. They don't have a hope in hell in a centre square scenario.

Yeah I wouldn't be holding up Bailey as any example of ruck excellence or athletic supremacy, but I take your point.

Is Mitch Edwards likely to go inside top 40 picks? If a bigger version of Tim English is the worst-case scenario he'll easily go first round you'd reckon!

I'll keep an eye out for him.

 

[3agles87]

He’s good

And the team making the trade is well placed to go all in on quality, rather than balance out both Quantity and quality

 

[briztoon]

Potentially target Gold Coast’s pick as it might be swallowed up with their academy pick anyways.

Here’s the thing about targeting Gold Coast first round pick, forget what ever you’re offering in the future, they’re going to want a fair amount of points in this draft for it.

Because they have to pay for kids in this year’s draft with those points.

You could possibly get it for your future second round pick, plus picks 33, 38, 52 & 57 in this year’s draft.

That would leave you with your first round pick, Gold Coast’s first round pick, and your second round pick. Then your really hoping Livingstone slips to pick 41.

 

[eagles rule]

I've seen this mentioned throughout the thread.
What will the bounce be replaced by? And why will it bring about the need for taller rucks? Genuine question.

The Bounce down will be replaced by a throw up as the umpire ranks are losing numbers in the lower grades due to the pressure and challenge of executing a legitimate bounce ..Some are good promising umpires but can't bounce the ball consistently ..

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

Yeah I wouldn't be holding up Bailey as any example of ruck excellence or athletic supremacy, but I take your point.

Is Mitch Edwards likely to go inside top 40 picks? If a bigger version of Tim English is the worst-case scenario he'll easily go first round you'd reckon!

I'll keep an eye out for him.

It's early, but he's probably in the 10-25 range.

Good thing is his height already and seems to keep growing. Late last year he was 204-5cm. He's also not a Bambi, he's good on his feet and knows how to find the footy at ground level.

I'm a huge fan, would love him on our list.

 

[THE A5]

It's early, but he's probably in the 10-25 range.

Good thing is his height already and seems to keep growing. Late last year he was 204-5cm. He's also not a Bambi, he's good on his feet and knows how to find the footy at ground level.

I'm a huge fan, would love him on our list.

Listed as 207cm and 90kgs. Looked up Tim English in his draft year and Tim was 4cm and 4kg’s shorter.