Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[kirky]

Geelong will now be under the pump with their remaining fixture. They only play North Melbourne from the current sides 12-18.

They don’t play us but play the remaining top 11 sides (with two games against both Port and Bulldogs).

 

[Rotayjay]

Oh how sweet and glorious it would be to pip Geelong for the last spot in the eight.

 

[Samcro24]

• Pies (H) - reckon we'll go ok but they'll have our measure
• Cats (A) - never win there and they'll probably be building
• Saints (H) - expect to win even though they are going well
• Dogs (A) - winnable but easy to picture a dirty day
• Lions (H) - we've lost the last 4 to them including two here but expect to win

2-3

Accurate

 

[Rotayjay]

A team who plays that quality football doesn't miss the eight. If we don't have too many weeks where we play well below our best, we'll make it.

 

[George Kramer]

Win one of Essendon or Gold Coast and we should make it

 

[Rotayjay]

It's unlikely, but you can make a case for winning 15 games:



Why not?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Probably need 13 wins for finals.

We should win against WC x 2, north, Sydney, GC at home, giants at home, and that would get us to 12 wins.

Away games against pies, demons and lions are likely losses.

Leaving gc away, Essendon away and the showdown. I think winning one of those 3 will get us there.

 

[AFC979810]

Accurate

Picked it like a dirty nose.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

It's unlikely, but you can make a case for winning 15 games:

View attachment 1699379

Why not?

Essendon wont be easy at Marvel, we're not great at travelling and they've been a really reliable side this year. Winnable probably but I'd give them the edge on their home deck. Game against Gold Coast this week if we can get it would go a long way to our finals aspirations.

 

[incorrectdisposal]

Probably need 13 wins for finals.

We should win against WC x 2, north, Sydney, GC at home, giants at home, and that would get us to 12 wins.

Away games against pies, demons and lions are likely losses.

Leaving gc away, Essendon away and the showdown. I think winning one of those 3 will get us there.

Succinctly put.
I’m sitting on a bet for the Crows to make the Top8 $222.30 at $4.50, payout is $1000. very nervous at this point. Could cashout for $500 currently but I reckon the Crows steal 1 win out of the 5 away games or Showdown and make it, just.

 

[NSolis]

If we just look at the teams around 5-6 wins right now who will be competing for the bottom two spots in the eight, strong percentage is a pretty big help. At the moment Adelaide are 7th with the 7th best percentage at 108.7%. This is better than all the other 5 and 6 win teams around the bottom end of the eight except Geelong, and quite a bit ahead of Freo, Gold Coast and Sydney.

There's only one other club that hasn't played one of North or West Coast yet, which is the Bulldogs, and 6 clubs have played them twice, including Freo, Gold Coast and Carlton who are around that competing pack.

In the second half of the year we play them three times, as do Essendon, but none of the other teams in that group play them more than once. You'd think that will be an opportunity for a percentage boost. This means we should almost certainly make finals with 13 wins and if it comes down to a team making it with 12, we'd be one of the best placed teams to do that.

 

[Apsaalooke]

If we just look at the teams around 5-6 wins right now who will be competing for the bottom two spots in the eight, strong percentage is a pretty big help. At the moment Adelaide are 7th with the 7th best percentage at 108.7%. This is better than all the other 5 and 6 win teams around the bottom end of the eight except Geelong, and quite a bit ahead of Freo, Gold Coast and Sydney.

There's only one other club that hasn't played one of North or West Coast yet, which is the Bulldogs, and 6 clubs have played them twice, including Freo, Gold Coast and Carlton who are around that competing pack.

In the second half of the year we play them three times, as do Essendon, but none of the other teams in that group play them more than once. You'd think that will be an opportunity for a percentage boost. This means we should almost certainly make finals with 13 wins and if it comes down to a team making it with 12, we'd be one of the best placed teams to do that.

Good summary. We don’t need any more blowout losses either

 

[70lethal]

Probably need 13 wins for finals.

We should win against WC x 2, north, Sydney, GC at home, giants at home, and that would get us to 12 wins.

Away games against pies, demons and lions are likely losses.

Leaving gc away, Essendon away and the showdown. I think winning one of those 3 will get us there.

Quite possible 12 wins and good % gets it done.
Ess, GC, Syd, are 8 point games and a win over ESS would be significant in the context of the season and finals.

 

[ams4crows]

Quite possible 12 wins and good % gets it done.
Ess, GC, Syd, are 8 point games and a win over ESS would be significant in the context of the season and finals.

Also Essendon play Collingwood in the last round and we play West Coast.

Only issue is if Collingwood have wrapped up top spot and rest players. The old Essendon need to win by X amount to get in and they play their game after ours I believe.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

It's still 50/50 at this stage. We've shown we can beat anyone at home and we should win all of our remaining home matches (not including the Showdown). Away form, however, is what's concerning and we'll really need to pinch a couple of wins to secure our spot. West Coast should be one but, ideally, Essendon and Gold Coast who we are directly competing for spots in the eight against.

 

[Dangarman]

I'm still expecting a >50% win-loss record will be needed to make the 8, i.e. 13 or 12.5 wins.
Beating the Suns on Saturday would go a long way to getting us into the 8.
A slip up in any of the home games against the Eagles (R13), North (R16) or GC (R21) would IMO disqualify us from being considered a legitimate finalist.
That gets us to 10 wins if we beat the Suns.
If we only had 11 wins going into R23 and R24 against the Swans and Eagles sides (both of whom I expect to be very much improved by then) it would be a pretty line ball bet on us getting through.
So to be comfortable by the end of R22, we'd want to find the wins above, plus 2 more from:

CWD (MCG)
Ess (Marvel)
GWS (AO)
Mel (MCG)
Bris (Gabba)
Showdown

If we manage a 7-5 start, going 4-7 in the back half would be a huge let down, 5-6 would be a bit sad if we just missed out, and 6-5 or better would have us finals bound.

Coming off a Darwin loss and 6-6 record, I think only a 7-4 or better would get us there, and a really tough ask.

Huge game for both clubs. If we win I think it would be Sunset on the Gold Coast for 2023. They would have to go 8-3 from there.

 

[Hobbes]

• Pies (H) - reckon we'll go ok but they'll have our measure
• Cats (A) - never win there and they'll probably be building
• Saints (H) - expect to win even though they are going well
• Dogs (A) - winnable but easy to picture a dirty day
• Lions (H) - we've lost the last 4 to them including two here but expect to win

2-3

Very good call.

 

[AFC979810]

Alright Samcro24 - Prove it wasn't a fluke.

How are we going to go the next 5?

Gold Coast (A) -
West Coast (H) -
Collingwood (A) -
North Melbourne (H) -
Essendon (A) -

I think the pass mark is 3-2 and we head into the last 8 games with a 9-7 record.

 

[Stephen2]

I wanna play

Gold Coast (A) - WIN, 5 goals but feels in control most of the game
West Coast (H) - WIN, 10 goals
Collingwood (A) - LOSE, they run it out of the middle and spread too well. 5 goals, but scoreline is flattering to us.
North Melbourne (H) - WIN, 10 goals
Essendon (A) - WIN, close, tough, pressure! haha we're gonna make finals!

 

[Samcro24]

Alright Samcro24 - Prove it wasn't a fluke.

How are we going to go the next 5?

Gold Coast (A) -
West Coast (H) -
Collingwood (A) -
North Melbourne (H) -
Essendon (A) -

I think the pass mark is 3-2 and we head into the last 8 games with a 9-7 record.

 

[Samcro24]

Gold Coast (A) - 50/50. Frustrating game but we sneak home.
West Coast (H) - Win but not by as much as we expect
Collingwood (A) - We show glimpses but not for long enough. Loss
North Melbourne (H) - Comfortable win
Essendon (A) - Unless we have a significantly better side, Essendon just about always find a way to beat us at home. Loss.

3-2

This weeks game is the hardest to tip, pretty confident the next 4 go to script.

 

[Hobbes]

Alright Samcro24 - Prove it wasn't a fluke.

How are we going to go the next 5?

Gold Coast (A) -
West Coast (H) -
Collingwood (A) -
North Melbourne (H) -
Essendon (A) -

I think the pass mark is 3-2 and we head into the last 8 games with a 9-7 record.

Most likely: ?,win,loss,win,?. Collingwood will be a tough assignment but you would hope we can beat GC or Essendon.

 

[1990crow]

Home games against Sydney, GWS, GC, Port. If we could win all of them top 8 would be a lock. Win this weekend and Essendon game and top 4 isnt out of the question..

 

[Dirty Bird]

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 8 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to St Kilda in Semi
After Rd 9 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Richmond in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 10 - Adelaide 10th at 12-11
After Rd 11 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Defeat Western Bulldogs in Smi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim

 

[Dirty Bird]

Oh how sweet and glorious it would be to pip Geelong for the last spot in the eight.

I have 6th-9th tied at 14-9 (Adelaide, St Kilda Fremantle making it, Gold Coast missing) with Essendon/Geelong at 10th-11th at 13-10