1st Ashes Test England v Australia June 16-20 1930hrs @ Edgbaston

[philreich]

Alex Carey is the first Australian Test wicket keeper to capture three stumpings in a single Test in England, additionally he did not concede a single bye ,the first Aussie since Adam Gilchrist to do so in the Old Dart.

Must be close to the current world best keeper now. Probably out of him and Foakes.

If he can help see us home, he'd have some claim to man of the match honours. It'd be hard to not give it to Ussie though.

 

[Kappa]

It's annoying but a lot depends on the conditions.

If it's overcast and "pre-rain" the ball has been shown to be moving around a lot. In our one period of overcast conditions t we took 2 wickets for 1 run and nearly every ball was unplayable or could have been a wicket. We won't get the runs in that scenario.

When it's sunny, the pitch is flat as a pancake and wickets have simply come from errors. Decent chance if that is the case.

Current forcast predicts no rain until the early afternoon. Up until then, it is "partly sunny" - as distinct from "sunny" or "mostly sunny", this suggests it will be mostly overcast with patches of sun.

Basically, if the ball remains predictable I reckon it's a real 50/50 (with current advantage to England). If the cloud cover is heavy and it starts moving, we have little chance IMO.

The funny thing is, if Stokes didn't declare early and Root continued to tee off England could easily have the game well beyond our reach now

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If he can help see us home, he'd have some claim to man of the match honours. It'd be hard to not give it to Ussie though.

Khawaja or Root ahead. Wouldn't be against Lyon either if we win.

 

[kickazz]

Would Australia have a go at the target if its around 174 to get off 50 overs (what some analysts are predicting in terms of overs)

The thing is, as soon as you lose a couple of wickets , Australia may look to shut down shop.

All depends on the pitch and conditions.

Oddly enough, if the pitch/weather stayed as it was on day 4, (with only a bit of wear) then I think England would possibly end up setting defensive fields as wickets in this test have largely come from batters' mistakes. Counterintuitively could be their best chance of winning as the Aussies, going for the win, might have to play more shots outside their comfort zone to do so.

Those citing the extra 40 or so runs England got yesterday - that's only half the problem. They ate in to our time in good batting conditions. Wrap up the last two wickets in a timely manner, and instead of them getting those 40, we probably get 25-30, making our task on the difficult day 5 easier by a fair margin.

 

[kickazz]

The funny thing is, if Stokes didn't declare early and Root continued to tee off England could easily have the game well beyond our reach now

If we win then Stokes will have a lot to answer for regarding that. Even if we don't win, it's some of the poorest captaincy I've seen in a while.

 

[BGman]

A lot depends on the iffy Pommie summer climate. Predicted rain until 1pm may be a godsend or a travesty for us. Have to wait and see.

 

[western royboy]

It's a pretty tough ask to get the runs and I know the first innings has little bearing but we have all spoken of who are the 'walking wickets' in the team and who we anticipate will 'carry the batting load'.

Compared to our 1st innings performance we 'only' need to get within 100 runs of that to win the match.

So far, we've had...

Warner (who is +25 on his first innings score)
Labushagne (+13), and
Smith (-10)

so of the 3 completed bats so far, we are +28 on first innings runs, with Boland still in already at '+13'.

Of course, Khawaja made 140 in the first innings (and is currently 34) which is tough to replicate, and Cummins made 38 (when he rarely makes runs these days). 50's from Head and Carey.

Point being, whilst it's a long way away still, it's the 'performing' bats in our team that are still to come so anything is possible, given we have gotten more from the 'non-performers' so far. Here's hoping....

Averages are a better guide

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Would Australia have a go at the target if its around 174 to get off 50 overs (what some analysts are predicting in terms of overs)

The thing is, as soon as you lose a couple of wickets , Australia may look to shut down shop.

4th innings chases of 250+ to win are very uncommon, especially away from home.

I think the only sensible instruction is to tell players to play their natural game and to play the ball on its merits. It's the only real chance we have of a result - whether that be a draw or a win. That means Khawaja will take his time, Head will play his shots, etc. Once you start asking defensive batsmen to attack or attacking batsmen to defend, they are more likely to make mistakes, get out and get us in trouble.

If we get to the stage that we are still only 3 or 4 down with 2 set batsmen and there are 20 or so overs to go - then the message can go out to "up the ante" to chase the win.

(174 in 50 overs (@3.5 an over) is at about "natural game" pace anyway (especially with Head, Green and Carey as the main batsmen to come)- it's not a 1 day score and shouldn't require too much 'risk taking' to achieve if that is what we end up with)

 

[Rich the babe Evans]

I can feel it... Boland to ton up like our last First Nation player as a night-watchman

 

[BGman]

Apparently our girls are facing a similar benign shocker for their Test match on Thursday this time at Trent Bridge in Nottingham. So now we have female Pomball, is catching next we'll have the over 60s Pomball.

 

[Woody15]

I've never seen such big discrepancies between what I saw live and what the DRS comes back with, ever.
I played the game at various levels for 50 years. I umpired a lot of games during that time. I think I have a fair idea what 'out' looks like, and where the ball is going to go. Both the Smith decision and th Bairstowe one look very iffy.

I'm not sure your extensive 50 year experience in cricket helps you determine with certainty whether balls are going to be just missing/clipping the stumps from the comfort of your couch. I also played a lot of cricket but I would never once wave that around in determining whether I know a ball is missing the top of the stumps from watching it on TV.

Smith was back to Stokes who skids the ball more. Ball did not bounce as much as other deliveries that landed in a similar area (nearly 26cm lower) and therefore had a flatter trajectory. Bairstow was more forward and with the ball delivered at a wider angle.

It's cricket. They were close decisions. They happen every match. Just because they didn't roll the way you wanted them to doesn't point to some conspiracy or manipulation by a trailer full of Englishmen.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Averages are a better guide

On that basis, the scorecard reads....

Warner 36
Khawaja 47
Labushagne 13
Smith 6
Head 47
Green 36
Carey 35
Cummins 16
Lyon 13
Boland 13
Hazlewood 12

Edit: Stuffed Warner's total.

Total= 274

I kid you not - adding all of their averages (and including the already known scores) takes Australia to exactly the target they need!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Apparently our girls are facing a similar benign shocker for their Test match on Thursday this time at Trent Bridge in Nottingham. So now we have female Pomball, is catching next we'll have the over 60s Pomball.

Least our girls can do it as well, we do have a bunch of attacking bats Healy, Gardner, etc. Mooney is the best t20 bat in the world too and we have a luxury of batting her down the order.

 

[Jamurp]

I’m so tired, one night to go. I might go to bed early and set an alarm for midnight.

Ashes already taking it's toll me, been so tired in the mornings, if we're looking like winning though, might have to stay up..

 

[philreich]

Also don't discount Big Green Dog can see him going well.

He might as well dance down the wicket to the spinners again, knowing he won't be stumped......

 

[BGman]

Boland to ton up like our last First Nation player as a night-watchman

How is his pinch hitting.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

On that basis, the scorecard reads....

Warner 25
Khawaja 47
Labushagne 13
Smith 6
Head 47
Green 36
Carey 35
Cummins 16
Lyon 13
Boland 13
Hazlewood 12

Total= 263

England win by 10 runs

Think I prefer the other method

Extras.....???

Aussie’s get home !!

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Ashes already taking it's toll me, been so tired in the mornings, if we're looking like winning though, might have to stay up..

Same.... can hardly stay awake in the mornings !!
nearly fell asleep in the cockpit today....

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He might as well dance down the wicket to the spinners again, knowing he won't be stumped......

Mate how unlucky is Lab getting caught by that tubby redhead twice in the same test

 

[Balls In]

The Stokes DRS made zero sense. That snicko did not show a spike like it would had it hit bat and the "noise" that it picked up started before the ball even reached the bat. The telecast showed the ball tracking once and fleetingly after that and I'm sorry but there is no way that ball was missing. Hit him on the back leg straight in front.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Extras.....???

Aussie’s get home !!

Made a mistake anyway - recheck the post!

 

[domus]

If it's close we will lose. Like the Pies we have a terrible record in nailbiters going back to that famous last wicket stand with Border and Thommo. The predicted rain will work against us as we will have to have interrupted sessions which always suits the bowling team. The rain and atmosphere suits swing and the batsmen have to continually reset and cannot get into a groove. I think we are going to fall short.

 

[domus]

I wish Smith was still captain. He was aggressive and proactive. Cummins seems to be very conservative and slow to react.

 

[Soggy2112]

If we were to win which I think is unlikely - the Poms would have to look closely at Bairstow

I think it’s more so to do with Bairstow’s prep than his ability. He has been a useful keeper in the past, but he is massively underdone, he’s only going to get better. I think it was a mistake to pick him as keeper, and it may cost them a test, but now he’s done it it would be silly to drop him when realistically he’s probably going to improve with a game or two under his belt.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

On that basis, the scorecard reads....

Warner 36
Khawaja 47
Labushagne 13
Smith 6
Head 47
Green 36
Carey 35
Cummins 16
Lyon 13
Boland 13
Hazlewood 12

Edit: Stuffed Warner's total.

Total= 274

I kid you not - adding all of their averages (and including the already known scores) takes Australia to exactly the target they need!

I think I'm going to play my own little nerdy game of overs/unders all night using their current averages to see if we are on track given their averages take us to exactly the target we need.