List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[Barrels]

Rough Edges and Daddy Barrels. Yes you are correct the Brownlow is a midfield award and KPP'S don't get a look in.

However plenty of KPP'S got votes last night coupled that with B&F and AA and the form line is ordinary.

I am simply stating that calling Carlisle a gun based on last two years is incorrect .

Certainly with a new start and away from the Dopers he may get his zest back. However that is an unknown.

He has potential but so has Freeman. We are not getting Rance but someone who hadn't played well for two seasons

As I said, I see where you're coming from, and to a point I agree, but when you say plenty of KPPs got votes, you're mainly relying on forwards.

As I posted earlier, only 8 key defenders polled votes - 23 of them in all - and if you take out Rance, that's 15 votes for 7 blokes, or 2.1 per player. 9 into 6 if you exclude Taylor too (1.5).

You've been talking about him like he's a bust or GOP; he may not be a gun on recent form, but as a settled KPD he was pushing All-Australian; that's a gun.

 

[L_W_P]

View attachment 178744

A fine woman she is

First I heard of it was in that article so thought it was worth bringing up

 

[Barrels]

A fine woman she is

First I heard of it was in that article so thought it was worth bringing up

Was brought up earlier from the same article bud.

 

[Baker_for_PM]

Richo said last night that he was happy with Ross as an inside mid, so I guess he's not going anywhere.

Maybe its like if i were to trade in my car i would be telling the dealer about its best features to try and get a better price.

 

[joop]

Carlton poster on our board has declared Billings is seriously talking to Essendon.

I love this time of year, so many people have so many rock solid sources.

What's his name and where does he live

 

[Rough_Edges]

Not trying to be smart but Brown was contracted, Carlisle is not - end of discussion.

That does not change the fact that we were willing to let go a quality pick for a much bigger unknown.

If Carlisle names us. We get him cheap.

If he says "I'm not too bothered", then I hope we pursue him aggressively.

 

[Joffaboy]

As I said, I see where you're coming from, and to a point I agree, but when you say plenty of KPPs got votes, you're mainly relying on forwards.

As I posted earlier, only 8 key defenders polled votes - 23 of them in all - and if you take out Rance, that's 15 votes for 7 blokes, or 2.1 per player. 9 into 6 if you exclude Taylor too (1.5).

You've been talking about him like he's a bust or GOP; he may not be a gun on recent form, but as a settled KPD he was pushing All-Australian; that's a gun.

Never once said he was a bust, however recent form shows he is currently only a GOP. A GOP with a huge upside, but at the moment he is no gun.

I think we are all getting a bit carried away.

Would I like Carlisle? Certainly. Would I sell the farm? Not the farm but maybe the back paddock and some livestock.

Rough Edges. All good mate. Healthy discussion

 

[Dr Spaceman]

What's his name and where does he live

a) Jay Clark
b) The bottom of the garden

 

[Joffaboy]

That does not change the fact that we were willing to let go a quality pick for a much bigger unknown.

If Carlisle names us. We get him cheap.

If he says "I'm not too bothered", then I hope we pursue him aggressively.

Think Watters wanted to give up 16 because he was a tool. We have a different regime now.
Really can't compare

 

[Rough_Edges]

Think Watters wanted to give up 16 because he was a tool. We have a different regime now.
Really can't compare

One thing we do agree on is that Watters was a tool

 

[sauce_head]

Like a contract means anything to Lyon

To be fair he wasn't contracted the year he left. There was some abysmal shuffling of paper by our admin and a lot of fussing around, but he hardly broke a contract.

 

[Rough_Edges]

On reflection despite my feelings at the same we are definitely at least partly culpable for not securing Lyon.

He handled it poorly however we tried to low ball him with an offer, another team came over the top and he said "**** this".

------

Have we been linked with Cam O'Shea again this year?

 

[SK_MD_#7]

On reflection despite my feelings at the same we are definitely at least partly culpable for not securing Lyon.

He handled it poorly however we tried to low ball him with an offer, another team came over the top and he said "**** this".

------

Have we been linked with Cam O'Shea again this year?

Someone said he was a done deal to us on our b&f night but Brett Anderson said he isn't on the table.

 

[Rough_Edges]

As in Cam was a done deal to us?

I actually don't mind him as a player, but it would be a bit of an odd one.

Did Richo ever confirm last year that we were into him?

 

[mighty sainters]

Na, not quite. Pick 73 is the last pick worth points (9). If you can't fulfill the required price then the debt gets transferred to the following year and is removed from your pick in the round the bid occurred. So if you match a bid you will get the player no matter what and just have to pay any debts the following year.

In your example, pick 48 is worth 302 points prior to discounts. Every round after the first gets a flat discount of 197 points so that 302 turns into 105. Pick 60 would be more than enough to cover that. Or if you didn't have that a few later picks could get the job done.

I think it's dependent on how many live picks are being taken to the draft. If each club decides that it wants to take 5 picks to the draft, then the points system will be updated to reflect that, with the last pick (e.g. 90) being worth the last amount of points (likely something less than 9)

Don't take my word for it, but just as a test of fairness, unless they scrapped the whole last round entirely (which isn't the case in the document that's commonly referenced: http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf), then I assume they would just base it off the amount of picks available and adjust every year

 

[L_W_P]

Someone said he was a done deal to us on our b&f night but Brett Anderson said he isn't on the table.

That was me (Re Cam OShea)

One of the guys I know said that we were right into him at the BnF. When I asked about it a couple days later he just said that Richo rates him and put his name to the list managers as an option, same as last year.

 

[Persevering Saint]

That was me (Re Cam OShea)

One of the guys I know said that we were right into him at the BnF. When I asked about it a couple days later he just said that Richo rates him and put his name to the list managers as an option, same as last year.

I'd say Bob is doing his job right now, so he'd not be a high priority.

 

[StFly]

Joff, in essence I agree with you, but Rough_Edges is right; the Brownlow is a horrible way to judge a player's worth, particularly if they're a KPP.

FWIW, Rance himself only received 8 votes, and of the other notable KPDs only Harry Taylor (6) meaningfully polled votes and, and Alipate Carlisle (2), Michael Hurley (2), Jeremy McGovern (2), Jack Frost (1), Josh Gibson (1) and Steven May (1) all got pats on the head.

For your reference, that's 4 members of the All-Australian squad, including three eventual members of the final side that polled a combined 13 votes, which is less than the individual vote tallies of 17 players across the league, with another 4 equalling it.

Sure, we shouldn't throw the farm at him, but equally we shouldn't just dismiss him based on a deeply flawed premise, or a tough couple of seasons played out of position at a club he hates.

generally speaking, if the talent is there and the season is there, a KP will win the thing; Lockett and Grant being two examples of this, since Grant did poll better than Harvey but was ineligible. Jake, in all his years has never polled much, but is widely regarded as a talented backman, despite being outvoted and out noticed by other backmen. Horrible way to form an opinion on a KP yes, but not totally dismissive of how they may be viewed in the AFL system by AFL people.

 

[saintbill]

Like everybody here I am just super keen for us to land a big trade. The mere fact other clubs might want him, makes me want Carlisle more. However, we need to try and be objective about this. Does he justify the hype? Will he actually make us that much better? If we are going to pay Rance like dollars and potentially be willing to give up pick 5 we need to be confident in the following 2 questions:

1. If Carlisle plays down back will he regularly beat the best forwards in the competition?
2. Does he provide and rebound potential?

To answer 1, I am going to pick out the best forwards from the competition. Let's say we look at Walker, Cloke, Hawkins, Lynch, Cameron, Roughead, Hogan, Petrie, J.Riewoldt, Buddy, Kennedy & Stringer.

Of the above, I would say Carlisle is a good match up for Hawkins, Petrie, Cloke & possibly Lynch. To be honest he would struggle to break even against Roughead, Walker, Riewoldt, Hogan & Kennedy because they have good tanks and are too quick off the mark. I personally believe he would regularly get torched by Stringer, Buddy & Cameron as they are just far too agile, and have way too many tricks at ground level for a player like Carlisle.

Therefore, Carlisle probably struggles to beat the competitions best 50% of the time. This is in stark contrast to a Rance who has the agility and speed to match it with all of the above players on a regular basis.

On point 2, will Carlisle provide run and/or rebound potential? Carlisle is a fantastic mark, therefore has the potential to provide a decent amount of rebound purely through his intercept marking. This is maybe the 1 area he is a better player than a defender such as Rance. Where Rance gets him again is his ability to provide some run and overlap. You get zero from Carlisle on this front.

Overall, Carlisle is a long way from Rance's level. I use Rance as a benchmark purely because that is the sort of coin we seem to be offering. I know we want to land a big fish, but I honestly don't believe Carlisle is going to make us significantly better. Would much prefer a fast agile defender than Carlisle, there are just too many bad match ups for him in the backline for us to justify throwing the kitchen sink at him. We also have Goddard who is very similar.

If we get him for a second rounder + player then cool, let's go for it. Any more than that and it is just not worth it IMO.

 

[Rough_Edges]

I think we need to all appreciate that sometimes you need to pay overs to get a quality player to your club.

Especially Key position players.,

There's been multiple examples of this over the past few years.

Yes we have Goddard but who plays with him as a tall?

Nearly every team has 2 KPF.

In regards to rebound provided, I don't think this is nessercarily that important.

Hawks - Lake, Gibson, Frawley provide little rebound.

They are all serviceable. As is Carlisle.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

On reflection despite my feelings at the same we are definitely at least partly culpable for not securing Lyon.

He handled it poorly however we tried to low ball him with an offer, another team came over the top and he said "**** this".

------

Have we been linked with Cam O'Shea again this year?

I'm not sure i like where we would be now if we had kept going the way we were.

You could argue that we wanted to pay him what he was worth, and Freo paid him overs.

 

[Mat Mann]

Like everybody here I am just super keen for us to land a big trade. The mere fact other clubs might want him, makes me want Carlisle more. However, we need to try and be objective about this. Does he justify the hype? Will he actually make us that much better? If we are going to pay Rance like dollars and potentially be willing to give up pick 5 we need to be confident in the following 2 questions:

1. If Carlisle plays down back will he regularly beat the best forwards in the competition?
2. Does he provide and rebound potential?

To answer 1, I am going to pick out the best forwards from the competition. Let's say we look at Walker, Cloke, Hawkins, Lynch, Cameron, Roughead, Hogan, Petrie, J.Riewoldt, Buddy, Kennedy & Stringer.

Of the above, I would say Carlisle is a good match up for Hawkins, Petrie, Cloke & possibly Lynch. To be honest he would struggle to break even against Roughead, Walker, Riewoldt, Hogan & Kennedy because they have good tanks and are too quick off the mark. I personally believe he would regularly get torched by Stringer, Buddy & Cameron as they are just far too agile, and have way too many tricks at ground level for a player like Carlisle.

Therefore, Carlisle probably struggles to beat the competitions best 50% of the time. This is in stark contrast to a Rance who has the agility and speed to match it with all of the above players on a regular basis.

On point 2, will Carlisle provide run and/or rebound potential? Carlisle is a fantastic mark, therefore has the potential to provide a decent amount of rebound purely through his intercept marking. This is maybe the 1 area he is a better player than a defender such as Rance. Where Rance gets him again is his ability to provide some run and overlap. You get zero from Carlisle on this front.

Overall, Carlisle is a long way from Rance's level. I use Rance as a benchmark purely because that is the sort of coin we seem to be offering. I know we want to land a big fish, but I honestly don't believe Carlisle is going to make us significantly better. Would much prefer a fast agile defender than Carlisle, there are just too many bad match ups for him in the backline for us to justify throwing the kitchen sink at him. We also have Goddard who is very similar.

If we get him for a second rounder + player then cool, let's go for it. Any more than that and it is just not worth it IMO.

Where would you rate Frawley and Lake in that same criteria? I wouldn't of thought they would individually do better than Carlisle on your comparisons.

Footy is more than just the individual now. Freo is exactly case in point, the collective is greater than the individual.

Carlisle make us better, no doubt. Give Hugh 2 years and he seems like he will take the bigger bodied Fwds, combined with Carlisle, Roberton and Webster and that seems like a pretty solid backline core, not forgetting Gilbert, which a lot of us do, it's a backline capable of as much as we had in 2009/10j

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I think we need to all appreciate that sometimes you need to pay overs to get a quality player to your club.

Especially Key position players.,

There's been multiple examples of this over the past few years.

Yes we have Goddard but who plays with him as a tall?

Nearly every team has 2 KPF.

In regards to rebound provided, I don't think this is nessercarily that important.

Hawks - Lake, Gibson, Frawley provide little rebound.

They are all serviceable. As is Carlisle.

Sometimes you need to pay overs but not always, it depends on the desperation. BUT StKilda are not in a position where it is "critical" to get a KPP right now.

Will it make a difference to the premiership chances next year?
Interesting examples you threw up.
Gibson traded for a second rounder + a third rounder.
Lake ( Somewhat elderly ) for a swap of secondrounders and a third.
Frawly for Nothing.

Lets just pretend we are the Hawks and get a good deal for now.
( Lake got plenty of rebound in his heyday - not many brownlow votes though ).

We have the bare necessities in Delaney, and we can keep an eye out for an upgrade on that, but Carlisle is not the messiah.

 

[majortinkle]

On the basis that you don't throw away future draft picks or move away from the draft unless you are doing so for that final piece of the jigsaw I just wondered whether people considered the potential (may only be considered potential on this board to be fair) pick up of Weller, Freeman, Pearce and Carlisle the final pieces of our jigsaw.

You'd imagine that we'd be left with little more than next years 1st rounder to do it, but going through the list with those names on it and it feels like we'd be there in terms of a finals push team once the list got enough games under their belts.

You could probably get away with a few not living up to what we see as their potential and still have a lineup that would challenge as well.

On that basis I'd be happy enough to clear the decks of whatever picks we need to to get them in now,in the belief we've got our flag winning lineup ready and waiting.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Where would you rate Frawley and Lake in that same criteria? I wouldn't of thought they would individually do better than Carlisle on your comparisons.

Footy is more than just the individual now. Freo is exactly case in point, the collective is greater than the individual.

Carlisle make us better, no doubt. Give Hugh 2 years and he seems like he will take the bigger bodied Fwds, combined with Carlisle, Roberton and Webster and that seems like a pretty solid backline core, not forgetting Gilbert, which a lot of us do, it's a backline capable of as much as we had in 2009/10j

Umm Webster at 188cm isn't really a part of this discussion.