2017 Best midfield and depth

[theprospect]

Saints midfield will be a major problem for the next couple of years, especially compared to some other teams around our position. While we managed to plug up some depth issues with our trades last year, we lack genuine talent in our midfield. Jack Steven is our best player, but even then he is barely an elite midfielder and has never been All-Australian. Furthermore, our talented youth such as Acres and Billings have yet to really step up to the next level to be considered good AFL players. This worries me as potential does not always convert into on-field performance. What I'm trying to say is, the saints really need to target an elite midfielder in the trade period this year in order to even challenge for a position in finals

How is Steven barely elite? He's one of the most damaging mids going around...

 

[aussierulesrules]

More depth does not equal improved on field performance, and other teams are also improving. As I mentioned in my original post, we may have improved our list this offseason, but if billings, acres and the like don't improve dramatically this year, I fail to see how our midfield becomes able to hold its own against the best

Well of course if we don't improve in there outside of depth our midfield won't be good enough to hold its own against the best! No shit, but all things being equal, I'm very very confident that our midfield will be better, as well as deeper, this year.

Some reasons:

-Armitage was as good as Jack Steven two seasons ago (14 rounds in he was leading the disposal count in the whole comp and then there was little between them in the B&F- and they tied for Brownlow votes), but then he missed most of last preseason with a back injury and went from having zero sub-20 disposal games in 2015, to 10 of them in 2016, and being very average again.

It sounds like he's back in ripping fitness again this year though, so if he returns to his 2015-type form, that alone will make a big difference to our midfield. I imagine he will also appreciate not having to carry such a huge load in there, with a few more big strong bodies to help.

-Koby Stevens may not be Paddy Dangerfield, but he wouldn't need to be, to be an upgrade on the 17 disposals per game we were getting from Luke Dunstan (who played almost exclusively on the guts, but struggled to play 70% game time) last season.

Prior to his first injury last year Koby was averaging 26 disposals per game and in spite of the fact his form really dropped after his 2nd injury in particular (during which he didn't run for 5 weeks), and he was playing a lot forward, he still averaged 22 for the year, so with all that being the case, I could easily see him averaging say 24 per game, if given the amount of midfield percentage that Dunstan got last year. Which would mean he would be a sizeable upgrade on what we were getting from Luke.

- Given the fact that Jack Steele apparently has considerably better endurance than Dunstan, it wouldn't surprise me if he is better for us this year than Luke was last year as well. He, like Stevens, is also more versatile than Luke- who pretty much only plays guts or bench.

-Sure none of the young ones like Acres, Billings, Gresham, Dunstan, Freeman, Sinclair and Minchington might not improve much, but given that all bar Gresh and Sincs are coming into at least their 4th season, and our development has proven to be very good in recent years, I reckon it's much more likely that one or more will really step up than none of them- especially with so much competition for spots amongst them all now.

One thing that has held all bar Freeman back in previous years has been poor endurance and/or strong enough bodies to play midfield, but with another preseason under the belts, that could make a big difference to any or all of them.

There may not be a Jaeger O'Meara or Patty Cripps amongst them, but this is still probably the most young midfield talent we've had coming through in my 27 years following the club really closely. If we develop them like we have say Ross, Membrey, Bruce, Weller, Roberton and Hickey, we're going to be in business going forward- and that's before whatever we do with a couple of million in cap space and 3 first rounders in the next two years drafts.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Depth can increase competition for places and drive individual performance. The ideal competition is among ascending players, as they can all improve.
Acres could still come good in the midfield. Billings looks like a good HFF.

I think he's kidding if he reckons we won't be better for having just the 4 main midfield options like we had for most of last season.

If that group were getting soundly beaten- like in some of our big losses, if not all of them- we had basically NO PLAN B WHATSOEVER!

It was just 3 of the same 4 blokes going in there at centre bounce after centre bounce, as those games slipped away before our eyes.

This year we ought to have a decent plan B and that could make a hell of a difference in those sort of situations in particular. Or simply if one or two of the "A-team" are having a bad day.

We're not going to have one of the top few midfields in the comp this year, but we're coming from a very long way back and Rome wasn't built in a day.

 

[TonaldDrump]

How is Steven barely elite? He's one of the most damaging mids going around...

Steven elite? HAHAHA

 

[schmuttt]

This is the metric I use to rank midfields. Based on regular season stats (no finals):

This accounts for hitouts, clearances and inside 50 numbers, because just focusing on inside 50 numbers skews it in favour of sides that get a lot of repeat inside 50 entries through their forward defensive structure, which is nothing to do with the midfield itself and more to do with game plan. A side that wins more hitouts but generates less clearances has, by any metric, a poorer performing midfield than one that wins the same amount of clearances from fewer hitouts.

That's why Melbourne is so low (1053 hitouts won for only 844 clearances won and 1183 inside 50s is pretty bad) and Port Adelaide is so high (669 hitouts won for 862 clearances and 1208 inside 50s). It's all about efficiency of performance. I mean, compare the defensive side of the ball - Melbourne only lost 791 hitouts but pretty much every single time they gave away a clearance when it happened (782). Conversely, Port Adelaide gave up a league high 1134 hitouts to their opponents, but only 880 of them ended up as clearances.

Fremantle was no surprise - their entire setup is based around the dominance of Sandilands and Fyfe. So when they went missing, their performance suffered.

Oh, and Collingwood has the best midfield in the competition from a pure numbers standpoint. It's seriously not even close with how efficient they are. Too bad the rest of the side isn't the same, but it's why I have them in my eight for this year. It's also why I think Geelong is going to fade - those hitout and clearance numbers are going to drop considerably with the rule changes. Less free kicks = less clearances. That's not an opinion, it's just as fact.

If you wanna know the formulas used - Attack and Defence Ratio were Inside 50/(Inside 50/(Clearance/Hitouts)). This was to work out what inside 50s were actually generated from the midfield and not through transition from defence (which is also more to do with game plan). Midfield Efficiency is a multiplication of Attack and Defence Ratio. And Midfield Rating is Inside 50 Attack/Inside 50 Defence x Midfield Efficiency.

I always find it interesting your statistics that you post on BF seem to have Port highly rated despite two mediocre years.

 

[TigerTime88]

This is the metric I use to rank midfields. Based on regular season stats (no finals):

This accounts for hitouts, clearances and inside 50 numbers, because just focusing on inside 50 numbers skews it in favour of sides that get a lot of repeat inside 50 entries through their forward defensive structure, which is nothing to do with the midfield itself and more to do with game plan. A side that wins more hitouts but generates less clearances has, by any metric, a poorer performing midfield than one that wins the same amount of clearances from fewer hitouts.

That's why Melbourne is so low (1053 hitouts won for only 844 clearances won and 1183 inside 50s is pretty bad) and Port Adelaide is so high (669 hitouts won for 862 clearances and 1208 inside 50s). It's all about efficiency of performance. I mean, compare the defensive side of the ball - Melbourne only lost 791 hitouts but pretty much every single time they gave away a clearance when it happened (782). Conversely, Port Adelaide gave up a league high 1134 hitouts to their opponents, but only 880 of them ended up as clearances.

Fremantle was no surprise - their entire setup is based around the dominance of Sandilands and Fyfe. So when they went missing, their performance suffered.

Oh, and Collingwood has the best midfield in the competition from a pure numbers standpoint. It's seriously not even close with how efficient they are. Too bad the rest of the side isn't the same, but it's why I have them in my eight for this year. It's also why I think Geelong is going to fade - those hitout and clearance numbers are going to drop considerably with the rule changes. Less free kicks = less clearances. That's not an opinion, it's just as fact.

If you wanna know the formulas used - Attack and Defence Ratio were Inside 50/(Inside 50/(Clearance/Hitouts)). This was to work out what inside 50s were actually generated from the midfield and not through transition from defence (which is also more to do with game plan). Midfield Efficiency is a multiplication of Attack and Defence Ratio. And Midfield Rating is Inside 50 Attack/Inside 50 Defence x Midfield Efficiency.

Good way of looking at it, however it ignores the Tigers adding Prestia/Caddy, Eagles Mitchell, Demons Lewis, Hawks changes ect.


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[ManOfClay]

I always find it interesting your statistics that you post on BF seem to have Port highly rated despite two mediocre years.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

Despite the numbers, port's midfield is exceptionally average. But those numbers...

 

[Janus]

I always find it interesting your statistics that you post on BF seem to have Port highly rated despite two mediocre years.

Both Champion Data (5th) and the AFL Official Player Ratings (6th) have us highly rated so it's nothing to do with who I support. The stats are the stats - our midfield generated more with less.

 

[Janus]

Good way of looking at it, however it ignores the Tigers adding Prestia/Caddy, Eagles Mitchell, Demons Lewis, Hawks changes ect.


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Well yeah it's from last year and last year only. I expect things to change drastically this year and the teams you mention to shoot up.

 

[HairyO]

Both Champion Data (5th) and the AFL Official Player Ratings (6th) have us highly rated so it's nothing to do with who I support. The stats are the stats - our midfield generated more with less.

Did Champion Data ever win their Appeal against the 2013 Grand Final decision?

 

[00Stinger]

Why is every thread being about next year being hijacked by Saints supporters?

 

[theprospect]

Steven elite? HAHAHA

If you think that's funny I'd love to hear what you think of your own clubs god awful list

 

[LittleG]

Why is every thread being about next year being hijacked by Saints supporters?

Because they are trying to win the off-season cup. Everyone use to come second to Port, so they think that moving themselves to first place isn't that difficult. Not sure that the Power fans should allow the Saints to take their off-season cup.

 

[12Chill]

Why is every thread being about next year being hijacked by Saints supporters?

We seem to be the flavour of the month I suppose.

Gonna be a bit of biffo if your boys get over us in Round 1. Big game for both clubs.

 

[Golden_6]

Well said, agree with that

Acres, Billings, Steele will become A graders imo

Not counting on Freeman to make it

Ross will be a handy b grader, at worst

Gresham another who should become A grade

All speculation at this stage I know but imo there's enough talent on the list already, with the exception of a line breaking, quick mid with a penetrating kick

Freeman was speculated on for this reason it seems to me

Webster, Savage and McKenzie (though his kicking no where near the first 2) could become this type. Newnes is no mug as an outside mid with good kicking

Otherwise, draft and trade in that type

I'd be more convinced about St.Kilda's list if they can acquire that one gun midfielder. Luckily for you guys, you're well placed to make a run at the 2 that could be available (Fyfe and Dusty).

I don't think Steven is a good enough player to be the best mid on a premiership team, terrific number 2 though. Guys like Ross, Acres, Newnes are great supporting cast players but won't be players to carry a team. I'm not sure Billings ever becomes a full time mid and if he does it'll be in the Lachie Hunter outside wingman role, which every team needs.

 

[Milanista28]

Watson

?

 

[Janus]

Because they are trying to win the off-season cup. Everyone use to come second to Port, so they think that moving themselves to first place isn't that difficult. Not sure that the Power fans should allow the Saints to take their off-season cup.

We'll let out footy do the talking this year, thanks all the same

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It's not that much different than the past 5-6 years, yet we've found a way. Not sure why this year we'll suddenly drop off a cliff with a similar group.

Wait until we see how the young guys perform before worrying myself too much.

Other thing is, in 2014 & 2015, we rarely if ever had the same three players at centre bounces or around clearances during that period, with guys like Roughead, Bruest, Puopolo, Rioli, Hodge, Burgoyne etc all running through there. Seemed to go away from it a bit last year, so interesting to see what Clarko does.

This has been a real strength of both Clarkson's & Beveridge's coaching to have deep midfield rotation options to change it up during the games... & pleasing to see Pyke is looking to do the same with the Crows in 2017, requiring players to be flexible to play multiple positions.

Also good you have confirmed my side of an arguement with marty36 who was of the view the Hawks usually played the same players in the centre square, which is clearly incorrect if you watch any Hawks games.

 

[Dan87]

Both Champion Data (5th) and the AFL Official Player Ratings (6th) have us highly rated so it's nothing to do with who I support. The stats are the stats - our midfield generated more with less.

Regardless of what a few of these statistics attempt to suggest, do you really believe Port have a top 5 midfield?

 

[Janus]

Regardless of what a few of these statistics attempt to suggest, do you really believe Port have a top 5 midfield?

I'd love to see how you see your depth chart

For a side that didn't have a recognized ruck for most of the year, they did pretty well.

In terms of guys that rotate through the midfield in our best 25, it goes something like this (player ratings in brackets):

Best 25

Robbie Gray (3)
Chad Wingard (22) (will be spending more time in the midfield this year)
Travis Boak (26)
Oliver Wines (55)
Hamish Hartlett (120)
Matthew Broadbent (138)
Brad Ebert (141)
Sam Gray (224)
Aaron Young (229)
Jarman Impey (259)
Jared Polec (311)
Brendan Ah Chee* (373)
Karl Amon* (390)
Matthew White (432)
Sam Powell-Pepper (N/A)*
Angus Monfries (467)

Depth

Joseph Atley* (N/A)
Willem Drew* (N/A)
Jake Neade (294)
Jesse Palmer* (684)
Will Snelling* (691)

*Less than 50 games.

Let's compare that to your list:

Just did this for fun, Swans 2017 rotating midfield depth chart is a bit like
(best 25)
Kennedy (2)
Hannebery (15)
Parker (11)
Jack (72)
Heeney* (130)
Lloyd (186)
Jones* (357)
Mills* (355)
Hewett* (425)
Towers (389)
Foote* (704)
--------------
(depth)
Florent (N/A)
Hayward (N/A)
Robinson (555)
Rose (623)

run and carry/ leg speed the weakness, have been trying to address that with the recent young picks Florent/Hayward.* denotes <50 games

Ours is an under-performing midfield, not a poor midfield. With Ryder back, it will easily be in the top 5.

 

[Donakebab]

?

Too many nangs.

 

[maddog37]

For a side that didn't have a recognized ruck for most of the year, they did pretty well.

In terms of guys that rotate through the midfield in our best 25, it goes something like this (player ratings in brackets):

Best 25

Robbie Gray (3)
Chad Wingard (22) (will be spending more time in the midfield this year)
Travis Boak (26)
Oliver Wines (55)
Hamish Hartlett (120)
Matthew Broadbent (138)
Brad Ebert (141)
Sam Gray (224)
Aaron Young (229)
Jarman Impey (259)
Jared Polec (311)
Brendan Ah Chee* (373)
Karl Amon* (390)
Matthew White (432)
Sam Powell-Pepper (N/A)*
Angus Monfries (467)

Depth

Joseph Atley* (N/A)
Willem Drew* (N/A)
Jake Neade (294)
Jesse Palmer* (684)
Will Snelling* (691)

*Less than 50 games.

Let's compare that to your list:



Ours is an under-performing midfield, not a poor midfield. With Ryder back, it will easily be in the top 5.

Flag certainty! Top midfield ever probably.

 

[schmuttt]

Janus if you need Ryder back then why did the team fail to perform in 2015 when he was there?

 

[ManOfClay]

I wonder how chad would go in the midfield where you have to occasionally get your hair messy?

 

[Dan87]

I think placing much credit in individual AFL player ratings is misguided, it's really just a rolling average of a players contribution based on past games, and doesn't really consider consistency, team result and individual upside. I would also imagine a team relying on a few would having high player ratings for those given their added responsibility. they're not an ideal comparison for players across different clubs IMO. I mean having high player ratings hasn't really helped you in the past. Anyways, some off the cuff remarks about your mids, they're particularly frustrating IMO so I'm gonna be a shit.

Best 25

Robbie Gray- undeniable
Chad Wingard - debatable that you'd play him mid
Travis Boak - crossroads. Goinf backwards AND no consistency
Oliver Wines - went backwards last year, not damaging, I don't see the raging quadzilla bull, like, ever?
Hamish Hartlett - not doing yourself any favours here. Inconsistent
Matthew Broadbent - half back with few weapons in or near a contest
Brad Ebert - good soldier. Consistent, not damaging
Sam Gray- if you're still trying with him then good luck.
Jared Polec- wildcard. Probably can't hack it when there's any pressure as before
Ah Cheers, Amon? Ehhh. Maybe one stays on the list next year

Don't think the others are worth much a mention here

There's a reason you doubled down on mids at the draft. Your core group are overrated