Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[CJMB]

Cripps and Kennedy will rotate forward imo.

I'm expecting to see Lang split his time between the midfield/wing and a pocket. Hopefully get a bit more of Murph closer to goals too.

Reckon it's 1. Palmer* 2. Buckley 3. Graham 4. Sheehan 5. White 6. Boekhorst________ * Because Palmer has asked out.

Lots to play out yet but at this stage, I feel we'll most likely lose Palmer & Buckley off the main list and sadly Sheehan off the rookie list.
Graham on a knifes edge, with Boekhorst & White likely getting another year.

Sheehan could be closer to the chopping block than Graham but at the end of the day I think your list is pretty much spot on (plus rookie vs senior list). I think Boek deserves one more run around to see if he can continue or build on his late season form. White and Graham I'm not fussed if we cut them this year or next, Palmer and Buckley should go.

 

[footyfan1978]

TL;DR - Too much talent is only a problem if you allow it to crowd your list. Try and identify/recruit excess talent, as long as you are proactive in 'cashing in' assets and redistributing picks/salary cap to where resources can be better allocated.

GWS has been at this game for a few years now.
I reckon it just levelled off finally by losing Devon Smith, Wilson and Kennedy.
What they have done well is be pragmatic and know they had to let talented players go as salary cap simply cannot afford them luxury of keeping the talent the bonanza of draft picks afforded them. SOS was extra smart knowing this had to happen and he could get a few talented guys on the cheap. The other thing is, by taking off the rich (talent wise) SOS was also bringing us closer whilst slowly reeling their talent gap back to a field we can compete in a few years on.

I think at same time GWS been very smart to re-generate picks to keep the talent coming in and the really balancing act is how to distribute the salary in such a way as try to keep hold of the advantages afforded them from start rather than piss it down the drain which Gold Coast seem to have done a bit.

Gold Coast had Ablett, David Swallow, Harley Bennell, Prestia and O'Meara in a midfield a few years back with Caddy to help out. They had a forward line with Lynch and Dixon to build around plus a back spine of May and Thompson and reasonable ruck division of Zac Smith and Tom Nicholls.
Time stands still for no club.

 

[Mr_Plow]

JSOS would be at 92+ kgs at this point as well; people are just being silly.

5 is a bit much, 2-3 in the upper body would be fine.

He isn't going to be Hawkins, but upper body strength is certainly an area that needs to be addressed.

 

[Jimmae]

5 is a bit much, 2-3 in the upper body would be fine.

He isn't going to be Hawkins, but upper body strength is certainly an area that needs to be addressed.

I've seen him completely shrug off a Ziebell tackle using his upper body, there is absolutely no problem.

Running power is what he needs, though I'm happy to read your explanation as to how focusing on bicep curls assists an AFL footballer.

 

[Mr_Plow]

I've seen him completely shrug off a Ziebell tackle using his upper body, there is absolutely no problem.

Running power is what he needs, though I'm happy to read your explanation as to how focusing on bicep curls assists an AFL footballer.

lol, c'mon bruh, no need to go that sarcastic...

 

[LordLucifer]

Completely agree. The salary cap makes everything a delicate balancing act.

It means you're chasing efficiency rather than effectiveness. Or as I have crapped on about in previous posts, value instead of worth. You can't afford to target 40 superstars. You need to spend some money on foot soldiers to free up cash for superstars. You can't spend 50% of your salary cap on the best backline ever assembled and have a terrible midfield and/or forwardline.

If Jones provides 85% of the output of Rance, but at 45% of the salary, he's probably better for your list. Nick Graham may be not be best 22, but for a small contract, players like Graham provide cheap, solid cover and leave you enough 'leftover midfield money' to pay for Cripps, SPS, Curnow, Fisher, Shiel etc.

I understanding recruiting surplus players in a position can be a waste of resources (ala Ruckgate when we had four of them within a 2-year age gap). But let's say you need a list of 30 talented AFL-ready players to win a flag, I'd rather build a list of 32 talented players and cash a couple in than to only have 25 and be left trying to find another 5.

Sometimes you use late picks (Macreadie or ASOS) on an area you may not need more players for. If you hit the jackpot on them, then you deal with the 'problem' of having too much talent and you cash some in.

TL;DR - Too much talent is only a problem if you allow it to crowd your list. Try and identify/recruit excess talent, as long as you are proactive in 'cashing in' assets and redistributing picks/salary cap to where resources can be better allocated.

You are somewhat similar to my thoughts on this Ferris but with a few subtle differences.

I have no time for players like Graham or Palmer etc regardless if they are only going to be used as cannon fodder.

IMO, the list needs to be broken down to something like this :

6-8 A Graders
24 B-Graders
0 C-Graders
12-14 Developing players

I say this because you are only as good as you weakest link and C-Graders just don't cut it on the big stage.

I'd also like to see the club work on creating a playing structure something like this (they may already for all we know) :

B: mid-sized defender, gorilla tamer, small goalsneak minder
HB : mid-sized defender, gorilla tamer, mid-sized rebounding defender
C : goal-kicking mid, big-bodied mid, goal-kicking mid
HF : goal-kicking mid, gorilla CHF, goal-kicking mid
F : goal-kicking mid, lead & mark FF, goal-kicking mid

R : 2m ruck, big-bodied mid, goal-kicking mid

I/C : 2m ruck, goal-kicking mid, rebounding defender, big-bodied mid

 

[Soapy V]

I can't believe how excited I am by our list now. Unbelievable turnover in the past few years, finally a team to be excited about.

End of the draft 2018 has always been when I believe the majority of the work is done. Still too many deck chairs at the moment. Looks very good so far though. Certainly as good as could be expected

 

[james Dean]

5kgs is a lot.

He will lose a bit of it over Jan-Feb when the heavy running begins again

 

[ShanDog]

I know, and I'm showing you what happens if we don't, and you can see over on the phantom that there's enough talent there.

Known senior listed players out of contract this year who may not get a new one (assuming Smedts still has another year):
7. Dylan Buckley
12. Blaine Boekhorst
32. Nick Graham
43. Simon White

We have 35/4 list at the moment. Add Kennedy, Lang and Lobbe and it's 38/4. Add the first three ND picks (3, 10, 30) and it's 41/4. We therefore need to delist one player on that basis just to get the primary list down to the max allowable of 40. Palmer is one talked about as being delisted and paid out, so let's pretend it's him and we're left with the remaining players above.

For every DFA we are interested in, we have to delist one of those guys. For argument's sake, there might be one DFA and we delist Buckley.

So, which one of Boekhorst, Graham or White is not valued as important as anyone left at pick 73 in this draft? I get the impression Boekhorst has one year left to prove himself. Nick Graham is, at worst, very good to have in the VFL side and White is similar as well as someone they seem to keep wanting around for depth.

So, like I said, I think it's unlikely we use pick 73. This is particularly the case if we pick up two DFAs.

 

[Soapy V]

22 under 22 (born '95 or after)

B: Macreadie, JGM, Byrne.
HB: Marchbank, Weitering, Williamson.
C: Pick #3, Cripps, Cuningham.
R: (Ruckman), Kennedy, SPS.
HF: Fisher, Curnow, Lang.
F: Silvagni, McKay, Pickett.
INT: Polson, Kerr, Pick #10, Pick #30.

For best team, sub the Macreadie, JGM and Byrne for Docherty, Jones and Plowman.
Kreuzer in the ruck. Then sprinkle our senior mids in the weaker spots and we easily have the best youth in the league.
BSOS next year too.

17 is imminent we have to stay patient with Bolton.

Oh FFS. Missing anyone?? you may not rate him but at least acknowledge he fits your list criteria

 

[Mr_Plow]

Oh FFS. Missing anyone?? you may not rate him but at least acknowledge he fits your list criteria

pick 73?

 

[FRUMPY]

Not taking into account any draft picks, my best 22:

B: Williamson, Weitering, Plowman
HB: Marchbank, Jones, Docherty
C: Simpson, Murphy, Fisher
HF: SPS, Curnow, Cuningham
F: McKay, Casboult, Pickett
R: Kruezer, Kennedy, Cripps
I: E Curnow, Silvagni, Wright, Lamb (maybe too many fwds on the bench)

Depth:
Backs: Byrne, Rowe, McCreadie, A Silvagni
Mids: Kerridge, Polson, Thomas, Smedts, Graham (id either sign him for 1 year or rookie)
Rucks: Lobbe, Phillips
Fwds: Kerr, Lang (need more fwd depth)

 

[Soapy V]

pick 73?

You watch. He will play round one and the same people will be saying they knew it all along

 

[Blue__Balls]

I'd also like to see the club work on creating a playing structure something like this (they may already for all we know) :

B: mid-sized defender, gorilla tamer, small goalsneak minder
HB : mid-sized defender, gorilla tamer, mid-sized rebounding defender
C : goal-kicking mid, big-bodied mid, goal-kicking mid
HF : goal-kicking mid, gorilla CHF, goal-kicking mid
F : goal-kicking mid, lead & mark FF, goal-kicking mid

R : 2m ruck, big-bodied mid, goal-kicking mid

I/C : 2m ruck, goal-kicking mid, rebounding defender, big-bodied mid

Interesting set-up.

Reckon the way the game is played now one of those gorilla-tamers can be replaced with a modern intercepting tall.

The second ruck is one that I just can't bring myself to consider - unless one of them is flexible enough to play other roles as well. Would rather have one of the key forwards be ruck-capable, then add a tallish utility to the bench (Macreadie, Tomlinson, that type of player).

What are your thoughts on a genuine small forward?

 

[LordLucifer]

Interesting set-up.

Reckon the way the game is played now one of those gorilla-tamers can be replaced with a modern intercepting tall.

The second ruck is one that I just can't bring myself to consider - unless one of them is flexible enough to play other roles as well. Would rather have one of the key forwards be ruck-capable, then add a tallish utility to the bench (Macreadie, Tomlinson, that type of player).

What are your thoughts on a genuine small forward?

A goal-sneak forward pocket (ie Eddie Betts) would be great but we have struggled to consistently find one.

My overall approach would be to ensure that we have a midfield that no-one can contain, there are too many options.

 

[1981]

By next years trade period we should finally get rid of all the dead wood

 

[FRUMPY]

By next years trade period we should finally get rid of all the dead wood

There will always be dead wood, just depends how dead it is

Kerr/Polson/Lebois/Lang etc might be in that category by then

 

[katmanblue]

You watch. He will play round one and the same people will be saying they knew it all along

For Northern Blues? Gonna be a while for him to break into senior team I think.

Probably mid year ish... hope i am wrong, but he really wasnt getting near it even in the vfl this year.

 

[Blue and Silver]

C-graders are in every premiership.

Spangher, Lambert, Roberts-Thomson, Morton so on so forth.

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[Blue__Balls]

A goal-sneak forward pocket (ie Eddie Betts) would be great but we have struggled to consistently find one.

My overall approach would be to ensure that we have a midfield that no-one can contain, there are too many options.

Yeah, would rather a capable midfielder who can rotate forward than an ordinary small forward who can't do much else. Would give up a bit for a Daniel Rioli though...

What's the logic on the double-ruck set-up, and do you have any caveats or contingencies if the criteria aren't met?

 

[Robbo's my hero]

Isn’t it time to move onto the 2018 List Management Discussion?

 

[Tambourine]

Not taking into account any draft picks, my best 22:

B: Williamson, Weitering, Plowman
HB: Marchbank, Jones, Docherty
C: Simpson, Murphy, Fisher
HF: SPS, Curnow, Cuningham
F: McKay, Casboult, Pickett
R: Kruezer, Kennedy, Cripps
I: E Curnow, Silvagni, Wright, Lamb (maybe too many fwds on the bench)

Depth:
Backs: Byrne, Rowe, McCreadie, A Silvagni
Mids: Kerridge, Polson, Thomas, Smedts, Graham (id either sign him for 1 year or rookie)
Rucks: Lobbe, Phillips
Fwds: Kerr, Lang (need more fwd depth)

Decent team. I like the idea of Simpson pushing into the midfield to add some experience after Gibbs left. IMO Byrne is a certain starter and is ahead of Williamson. Another thing would be pick 3..would they start round 1?

 

[Soapy V]

For Northern Blues? Gonna be a while for him to break into senior team I think.

Probably mid year ish... hope i am wrong, but he really wasnt getting near it even in the vfl this year.

There were reasons and anyone judging a kid on his first year especially away from home and being injured has rocks in their heads.

Bottom line is when naming our under 22 players on our list he is one of them.

 

[F_therest]

C-graders are in every premiership.

Spangher, Lambert, Roberts-Thomson, Morton so on so forth.

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

Richmond no joke had half a team full of them and won...

 

[ferrisb]

You are somewhat similar to my thoughts on this Ferris but with a few subtle differences.

I have no time for players like Graham or Palmer etc regardless if they are only going to be used as cannon fodder.

IMO, the list needs to be broken down to something like this :

6-8 A Graders
24 B-Graders
0 C-Graders
12-14 Developing players

I say this because you are only as good as you weakest link and C-Graders just don't cut it on the big stage.

I'd also like to see the club work on creating a playing structure something like this (they may already for all we know) :

B: mid-sized defender, gorilla tamer, small goalsneak minder
HB : mid-sized defender, gorilla tamer, mid-sized rebounding defender
C : goal-kicking mid, big-bodied mid, goal-kicking mid
HF : goal-kicking mid, gorilla CHF, goal-kicking mid
F : goal-kicking mid, lead & mark FF, goal-kicking mid

R : 2m ruck, big-bodied mid, goal-kicking mid

I/C : 2m ruck, goal-kicking mid, rebounding defender, big-bodied mid

Your C-grader point is a good one.

I can see the logic in cutting the C-graders and replacing them with kids.

2/3 of the kids turn out worse than the 'Grahams', but a third are better. You keep the 1/3 and cull the 2/3. And 1/3 of those are better. Rinse, repeat.

My only comeback to that would be if you get some injuries, I'd rather have Graham as cover than an 18yo skinny 'development player'. So, I don't mind a little bit of cannon fodder on the list. But overall I can sympathise with the 'you're good enough or not' approach.