Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

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You haven't agreed with me in the past???? Take a number, PM...

Seriously though. You make an excellent point. Perhaps I've been a little gung-ho with my views on recruiting. And had we missed Weitering and were watching him in another jumper, I'd be devastated...

So maybe a middle ground? We hang on to good early picks when we can, but also, maybe we don't automatically dismiss the odd genuinely gun player if we can get them...

How's that?

By the way, we wouldn't have missed Marchbank. He was on my Wishlist for a long time....
I'm with you 100% for going after genuine gun players from here, we have the money and it would be stupid to spend that money on a couple of Vickery's rather than a guy like Fyfe.
 
I'm with you 100% for going after genuine gun players from here, we have the money and it would be stupid to spend that money on guys like Wells and Mayne rather than a guy like Fyfe.

Edited for Collingwood...
 
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It is no coincidence (imo) that Freo's drop has come at the exact same time as Fyfe being injured. He basically had the Brownlow stitched up at the halfway mark of 2015, Freo at that time were games clear on top of the ladder. He then played injured and missed a large stretch at the end of the season and all of a sudden Freo limped in to the finals. Then 2016, they were worse than us without Fyfe.

He is a team lifter much like Judd was, that can help bring the other players to a higher standard. Bring in a young gun like Hopper with him and we could be legitimate contenders sooner rather than later.

Obviously there is the injury concerns (which none of us really know the full story on), but if he is given the medical all clear we should be going extremely hard at him.
 
It is no coincidence (imo) that Freo's drop has come at the exact same time as Fyfe being injured. He basically had the Brownlow stitched up at the halfway mark of 2015, Freo at that time were games clear on top of the ladder. He then played injured and missed a large stretch at the end of the season and all of a sudden Freo limped in to the finals. Then 2016, they were worse than us without Fyfe.

He is a team lifter much like Judd was, that can help bring the other players to a higher standard. Bring in a young gun like Hopper with him and we could be legitimate contenders sooner rather than later.

Obviously there is the injury concerns (which none of us really know the full story on), but if he is given the medical all clear we should be going extremely hard at him.

I see where you are coming from, there is no doubt that Fyfe is an exceptional midfield bull. Although he was not the only one that was plagued by injuries last year and more importantly, is the change they made to their game plan to be more offensively minded, which exposed flaws in players with poor disposal skills.

If you are correct, that Fyfe was the main reason for their fall, that concerns me even more, given we could suffer the same fate. The counter argument is Dangerfield leaving Adelaide. The side actually continued to develop without him, although, you never want to lose a player of his calibre. Sure, if we are able to add Fyfe to the list, without losing too much in return, do the deal.

For me, I would rather two or three A grade players, than one A+++. As an example: Fyfe vs 2 or 3 of Wright, Hooper, Shiels, Breust, Zaharakis
 
I see where you are coming from, there is no doubt that Fyfe is an exceptional midfield bull. Although he was not the only one that was plagued by injuries last year and more importantly, is the change they made to their game plan to be more offensively minded, which exposed flaws in players with poor disposal skills.

If you are correct, that Fyfe was the main reason for their fall, that concerns me even more, given we could suffer the same fate. The counter argument is Dangerfield leaving Adelaide. The side actually continued to develop without him, although, you never want to lose a player of his calibre. Sure, if we are able to add Fyfe to the list, without losing too much in return, do the deal.

For me, I would rather two or three A grade players, than one A+++. As an example: Fyfe vs 2 or 3 of Wright, Hooper, Shiels, Breust, Zaharakis
As a free agent Fyfe should come much cheaper than the guys you have mentioned (I'm assuming you mean Shiel and not Shiels, the mediocre player from Hawthorn). Get the big dollars out of the way in year one before our young guys start demanding serious cash and then have him on reasonable dollars thereafter.

To get 2 or 3 of those guys you mentioned we would have to blow 2 years worth of draft picks, and their salary won't be that much less than Fyfe. Getting Fyfe shouldn't prevent us getting another one of those players you have listed, definitely not a "Fyfe or Shiel and Wright" scenario, those guys will also demand huge dollars (along with a huge trade cost).
 
As a free agent Fyfe should come much cheaper than the guys you have mentioned (I'm assuming you mean Shiel and not Shiels, the mediocre player from Hawthorn). Get the big dollars out of the way in year one before our young guys start demanding serious cash and then have him on reasonable dollars thereafter.

To get 2 or 3 of those guys you mentioned we would have to blow 2 years worth of draft picks, and their salary won't be that much less than Fyfe. Getting Fyfe shouldn't prevent us getting another one of those players you have listed, definitely not a "Fyfe or Shiel and Wright" scenario, those guys will also demand huge dollars (along with a huge trade cost).

Yes correct Shiel

The price tag for Fyfe will be high if we want to acquire him (1.7M a year?), as the Dockers could just match a sizable offer

Breust, Zaharakis are currently free agents, which we could add for the said 1.7M? So we wouldn't have to blow 2 years worth of draft picks

Wright is out of contract at the end of 2017, so GC's bargaining power isn't as strong.

Shiel would be the one that you would have to give up worthy draft picks, but at his age, it would make sense to spend the currency
 
Hawthorn built their three peat premiership side without buying any mega bucks stars (they actually got Burgoyne dirt cheap, both trade wise and probably with well under market value wages)

Regardless, I think Geelong's current strategy of topping up around Dangerfield is fraught with danger, and one we should avoid at all costs.
 
Yes correct Shiel

The price tag for Fyfe will be high if we want to acquire him (1.7M a year?), as the Dockers could just match a sizable offer

Breust, Zaharakis are currently free agents, which we could add for the said 1.7M? So we wouldn't have to blow 2 years worth of draft picks

Wright is out of contract at the end of 2017, so GC's bargaining power isn't as strong.

Shiel would be the one that you would have to give up worthy draft picks, but at his age, it would make sense to spend the currency
Fyfe is not going to be getting $1.7 million a year! That's crazy talk.

I honestly think Wright would cost as much in salary as Fyfe given some of the recent deals involving young key forwards, forget bargaining power for him, he would cost a bundle in a trade.

Zaharakis...... meh. Quality player but has been a huge underachiever, not really a player I would want us to pursue.
 

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Fyfe is not going to be getting $1.7 million a year! That's crazy talk.

I honestly think Wright would cost as much in salary as Fyfe given some of the recent deals involving young key forwards, forget bargaining power for him, he would cost a bundle in a trade.

Zaharakis...... meh. Quality player but has been a huge underachiever, not really a player I would want us to pursue.

So what do you think is a fair deal for Fyfe, say over 5 years?
 
So what do you think is a fair deal for Fyfe, say over 5 years?
Hard to gauge that alone, as well as how much we will offer. Last couple of years we have reined in the player payments hard. Maybe it was to ensure we have a bucketload to throw at someone like Fyfe, or maybe we aren't going to do that sort of thing anymore, and will pay decent money for a couple of FAs instead.
 
Hard to gauge that alone, as well as how much we will offer. Last couple of years we have reined in the player payments hard. Maybe it was to ensure we have a bucketload to throw at someone like Fyfe, or maybe we aren't going to do that sort of thing anymore, and will pay decent money for a couple of FAs instead.

Agreed

All this talk of Fyfe is enticing, but have people really though this through.

If his market value is 6 million over 5 year (1.2M a year), surely sides like the Saints would also enter the race for his services.

Freo would also be mad not to match it, even if they finished say 3rd last in 2017, they would only get pick 4 as compensation.

So the only options, that are viable, the way I see it:

1. Up the offer way above the 1.2 M a year, hoping the Dockers don't match it

2. We would have to trade for him, along the lines of what Geelong did with Dangerfield, which would cost multiple draft picks
 
Agreed

All this talk of Fyfe is enticing, but have people really though this through.

If his market value is 6 million over 5 year (1.2M a year), surely sides like the Saints would also enter the race for his services.

Freo would also be mad not to match it, even if they finished say 3rd last in 2017, they would only get pick 4 as compensation.

So the only options, that are viable, the way I see it:

1. Up the offer way above the 1.2 M a year, hoping the Dockers don't match it

2. We would have to trade for him, along the lines of what Geelong did with Dangerfield, which would cost multiple draft picks

...lot of guesswork and most people have given it thought but...

We don't know what he's worth (2017 will determine that), what he will cost, what Freo will match or if it will involve picks.

I'm sure if he's available and the current admin think he's worth it we'll have a dip.

I'm pretty comfortable with the people running the show now. They seem to have a solid plan forward .

If it involves Fyfe that would be awesome but there's a full season to figure that out.
 
Agreed

All this talk of Fyfe is enticing, but have people really though this through.

If his market value is 6 million over 5 year (1.2M a year), surely sides like the Saints would also enter the race for his services.

Freo would also be mad not to match it, even if they finished say 3rd last in 2017, they would only get pick 4 as compensation.

So the only options, that are viable, the way I see it:

1. Up the offer way above the 1.2 M a year, hoping the Dockers don't match it

2. We would have to trade for him, along the lines of what Geelong did with Dangerfield, which would cost multiple draft picks
I think the biggest difficulty is we don't know what the salary cap is increasing to.

Personally, I think if Freo have a very good year he will stay. But if they are bottom 4 or 5 then he will be very open to offers. I don't think they would match an offer for him if he has told them he wants to go and they are looking at getting a top 5 pick for him. Especially if we have a good year and finish above them.

A big part of why Adelaide were going to match for Dangerfield was that they were only going to be compensated with a meh draft pick.

If we pay only 95% of salary cap this year then we can go to 105% the following year, we should be able to pay him huge dollars that year (his first year) and then the dollars he would've got had he always been a Carlton player in the remaining years.

As for the Saints, no doubt they will be going hard at him too (probably a few others as well). We should be able to pay him enough to be able to sell Carlton to him (Saints would be thinking the same thing).
 
To be fair to Mick, the only player we lost that's still going well at their new club is Betts, i think people are seriously overrating Jeffy, Waite, Robinson etc. The bigger gripe is the replacements MM brought in (Daisy, Tutt and Jones etc) but i think the pragmatic view is that MM's list cull was necessary and probably long overdue. Regardless we should move on..

The argument is played out but you're right to call out the fallacy that anything of value was lost.
 
I think the biggest difficulty is we don't know what the salary cap is increasing to.

Personally, I think if Freo have a very good year he will stay. But if they are bottom 4 or 5 then he will be very open to offers. I don't think they would match an offer for him if he has told them he wants to go and they are looking at getting a top 5 pick for him. Especially if we have a good year and finish above them.

A big part of why Adelaide were going to match for Dangerfield was that they were only going to be compensated with a meh draft pick.

If we pay only 95% of salary cap this year then we can go to 105% the following year, we should be able to pay him huge dollars that year (his first year) and then the dollars he would've got had he always been a Carlton player in the remaining years.

As for the Saints, no doubt they will be going hard at him too (probably a few others as well). We should be able to pay him enough to be able to sell Carlton to him (Saints would be thinking the same thing).

Agreed, although if it was me, a compensation pick of 4 or 5 would not entice me not to match the offer.

Given the amount of possible suitors, they could easily obtain 2 first round picks and a 2nd round as a minimum, if trading
 
We should have plenty of salary cap mobility, we'll be clearing out Thomas, Jones, Jaksch.
Lamb and Palmer are out of contract end 2017 and can be renegotiated down.
Not to mention the remainder of the clean out.
So the option is available, hopefully we are a more attractive destination by end 2017.
I'm guessing things will change for the better fast and there will be interest from FA and other quality players out of contract.
Go Blues
 
Agreed, although if it was me, a compensation pick of 4 or 5 would not entice me not to match the offer.

Given the amount of possible suitors, they could easily obtain 2 first round picks and a 2nd round as a minimum, if trading
Next trade period is going to be a fascinating one for Carlton. The last 2 years we have happily taken wages off GWS's books to get a better price on our targets whilst we accumulate quality youth. It sounds to me that strategy will end this year and we will be trying to entice a big name or two. We should have plenty of cap in reserve (especially with Jones, Thomas, Jaksch and co. contracts finishing).
 
As for the Saints, no doubt they will be going hard at Fyfe too (probably a few others as well). We should be able to pay him enough to be able to sell Carlton to him (Saints would be thinking the same thing).

Obviously the chances he'll leave and nominate us would have to be relatively low. However, I'd be very surprised if we didn't have a stack more space in our cap than St Kilda.
 
Agreed

All this talk of Fyfe is enticing, but have people really though this through.

If his market value is 6 million over 5 year (1.2M a year), surely sides like the Saints would also enter the race for his services.

Freo would also be mad not to match it, even if they finished say 3rd last in 2017, they would only get pick 4 as compensation.

So the only options, that are viable, the way I see it:

1. Up the offer way above the 1.2 M a year, hoping the Dockers don't match it

2. We would have to trade for him, along the lines of what Geelong did with Dangerfield, which would cost multiple draft picks


I would much rather spend up big in Fyfe in the hope that Freo didn't match his contract. As we could front load we could take the hit.

If freo match, I'd be happy to goto the draft and save our pennies for next year.


paying premium draft picks for a premium player doesn't really improve us
 
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