List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA (Pt. 2)

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I find it interesting as to who makes the first move in a potential pick swap. If it was Port & Suns talking you give up leverage in negotiations simply by making the first call.

If Suns contact Port then they know we are not sold on Rankine and they would think they could just wait at 5 for him.

To get the best deal in a pick swap Suns have to play a massive game of cat and mouse.

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What will happen if
Carlton pick Lukosius
GC pick Sam Walsh and Caldwell at 2,3
St Kilda Rankine at 4
?
 

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Carlton hold the first pick . Anything is possible . Until Carlton pick Sam Walsh , pick 1 could be Rankine or Lukosius too .
Can't believe Carlton want another tallish forward before a gun midfielder...surely even SOS can see that...
I'd be worried if Lukosious came from GWS though....
 
Can't believe Carlton want another tallish forward before a gun midfielder...surely even SOS can see that...
I'd be worried if Lukosious came from GWS though...!
came From GWS ?
Ok I get it now ....
Rankine is my number 1 . A bit like Rayner.
Could fit into Carlton forward line and rotate with Fisher , Paddy Dow ,SpS.
 
came From GWS ?
Ok I get it now ....
Rankine is my number 1 . A bit like Rayner.
Could fit into Carlton forward line and rotate with Fisher , Paddy Dow ,SpS.
Why do you persist in being weird ??
Rankine won't be #1.
 
I find it interesting as to who makes the first move in a potential pick swap. If it was Port & Suns talking you give up leverage in negotiations simply by making the first call.

If Suns contact Port then they know we are not sold on Rankine and they would think they could just wait at 5 for him.

To get the best deal in a pick swap Suns have to play a massive game of cat and mouse.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
Yes, sir. Because the worst that can happen is that the Suns don't get any offers worth trading back for.

Pick #3 is worth all 3 of Port's picks with our #24 and #29, and Adelaide's first 4 picks with the same return. GWS could probably throw their first 4 picks at #3 without getting #24.

I doubt the first 2 picks get traded unless someone really wants Rankine and then Port have leverage because Rozee will be there at #5 which the Crows and Giants can't offer up.

Trading at #6 is smart because Port have already bought #6 once this trade period and they paid massive overs for it. Any team that wants it can have it for less than Port paid, but it will still be WAAAY over. Crows fans are offering #8 and #21 for #6 and #24, but we can sell that to GWS for #9 and #19 or to Port for #10 and #15, so the Crows will need to pay #8 and #16. In fact, why don't we make it #6 and #29?

If the Giants see something they like at #6 like Tarryn Thomas (originally from NSW) or want to bid on Blakey (which Sydney will have to pay the equivalent of pick #9 for) they make a huge play and swap #9 and #11 for #6 and #24, which is 2798 points to 2536 points. That even makes you wonder if they accept #29 instead of #24. GWS have
#19 and #25 anyway, but they are into Briggs and Koschitzke, but only Briggs is tied to them. If they could spend #25 on Kossie 2.0, they'd still have the picks to match a bid for Briggs even if he came earlier than predicted.

Ball is firmly in the Suns court.
 
OK I'm going to bed even though its only 8.15pm....cause all these figures and theories and examples are doing my head in....plus the Glenfiddich isn't helping.

I just hope we take 2 3 and 6 to the draft and get the best 3 that we can......:thumbsu:
Wait until I get out my calculator and work out how to make North Melbourne pay too much for Tarryn Thomas and Bailey Scott!
 
OK I'm going to bed even though its only 8.15pm....cause all these figures and theories and examples are doing my head in....plus the Glenfiddich isn't helping.

I just hope we take 2 3 and 6 to the draft and get the best 3 that we can......:thumbsu:
Had a couple of Bundy Rums - but it adds up to Lukosious, Rankine and Rozee in my mind..;)
 

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Doubt you'll get it ...
He's got a point about Walsh, Lukosius and Rankine being the best 3 and there are arguments that they could be ranked in any order. I wouldn't complain at all if the best midfielder in the Draft fell to us at #2 because the Blues picked Lukosius, but Carlton already have the tallest list in the comp and they are dreadful. The very last thing the Blues need is Lukosius giving them a 1% lift at CHF while another of their high draft picks or expensive trades languishes in the VFL. They don't need a skilful small forward either because they have heaps of them and 1 more will probably mean they struggle to win even 2 games. So, the Blues will take Walsh ahead of Lukosius and Rankine, unless they suddenly like Bailey Smith better than Walsh or they actually realise that Connor Rozee would offer them a replacement for Kade Simpson's eventual retirement.
 
He's got a point about Walsh, Lukosius and Rankine being the best 3 and there are arguments that they could be ranked in any order. I wouldn't complain at all if the best midfielder in the Draft fell to us at #2 because the Blues picked Lukosius, but Carlton already have the tallest list in the comp and they are dreadful. The very last thing the Blues need is Lukosius giving them a 1% lift at CHF while another of their high draft picks or expensive trades languishes in the VFL. They don't need a skilful small forward either because they have heaps of them and 1 more will probably mean they struggle to win even 2 games. So, the Blues will take Walsh ahead of Lukosius and Rankine, unless they suddenly like Bailey Smith better than Walsh or they actually realise that Connor Rozee would offer them a replacement for Kade Simpson's eventual retirement.

Well done sir....you and I finally meet with common understanding...:)
 
I would bid Thomas and Blakey at 6 .
We totally should because North have taken 2 of our Academy players in the past and played dirty on the Hall trade. But just to knock them out of the Draft we should also bid for Bailey Scott at #24 or earlier if we somehow get #21 or #19. The Swans bid on Bowes too, which was probably the expected thing considering how strong the Suns were and how Bowes had probably only fallen that far because he was Academy tied. Potentially, had the Swans picked someone else, the Suns could have taken Jy Simpkin or Sam Powell-Pepper and matched a later bid for Bowes with pick #67 and used the points from 2017 pick #2 which would have pushed it down to about #8 depending on who bid. Also means no Scheer, and Freo probably still takes the Weller deal but no Ballard. Worked out ok, but they still stooged us!
 
Well done sir....you and I finally meet with common understanding...:)
Ah, come on. We've been same page for a while now. Besides, this new list manager has been very straight down the line so far and is a few days away from pulling off the single greatest list overhaul in the modern AFL. There just aren't any stars in his eyes and he is straight with the media and fans. No surprises. There would have to be an amazing offer to even consider trading back and the first 5 picks will be used to select players the list needs.

The only question I really have is whether he gets a free agent in the Rookie Draft or gets a couple of Academy guys. If Koenen goes at #80 or his bid gets matched, then Graham is the likely 2nd Academy pick. Who would be the 3rd?
 
OK...just done a few likes...now I'm off to bed after a few JimBeam and Honey shots to see me safely on my way......
Honey Bourbon is the reason I have a daughter! However, she was conceived on the night of the Suns first ever win, so it's definitely football related!!
 
Cal twomey throwing out there Izak Rankine coming hard for pick 1.

Carlton supposably interested.. saying you can find midfielders easier then a exciting match winner in Rankine..

But still expects Walsh to be called at pick 1.
And says Carlton would of already made up they’re mind by now who they taking.

Sounds like Cals just keeping his name in media street.
 
Cal twomey throwing out there Izak Rankine coming hard for pick 1.

Carlton supposably interested.. saying you can find midfielders easier then a exciting match winner in Rankine..

But still expects Walsh to be called at pick 1.
And says Carlton would of already made up they’re mind by now who they taking.

Sounds like Cals just keeping his name in media street.
That would actually be awesome for us. Walsh would slot straight into our midfield and we'd still get our main priority in replacing Lynch. I don't think it happens though because Carlton already has 9 small forwards and barely enough players to actually field a midfield let alone have any left over for the VFL.

Tomorrow Cal will be pushing for the Suns to swap for Pick #1, on Wednesday he'll be spruiking the King Twins again and by Thursday night he will be predicting
1. Walsh
2. Lukosius
3. Rankine
4. M. King
5. B. King
6. Rozee
7. Smith

Hear all his theories here-

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-13/podcast-team-reveals-their-mock-draft-for-the-first-round
 
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