Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[COBALT BLUE]

I know he was injured, but Kennedy must be the most anonymous bloke on our list. Some exciting glimpses late in the year.

Really strong Body,decent size mid,looks a million dollars
Looked slow in 2018 as you said injury issues....needs to get 25 disposals a game consistently...has been at 17.2 in 2018
hopefully 2019 will see him work to his potential which should be indicative of at least average AFL results and supply good backup support to Cripps

 

[COBALT BLUE]

Ins: Walsh, McGovern, Fasolo, Setterfield

Outs: Kerridge, Lamb, Rowe, Graham, Casboult

Team next year:

B: Plowman-------------Marchbank------------Simpson

H: Docherty-------------Weitering--------------Thomas

C: Setterfield-----------Cripps----------------O'Brien

H: SPS------------------C.Curnow-------------McGovern

F: Pickett------------------McKay----------------Fasolo

Foll: Kreuzer, Dow, Murphy

Bench: Williamson, Kennedy, Walsh, Fisher

Emerg: E.Curnow, Lobbe, Byrne, Jones, Lang, Garlett, Cuningham

Setterfield wont be starting best 22 round 1 ......will only have a partial pre season with his ACL of Apr 2018.........he has not played consistently for a long time..
may see him mid season....managed roll to setup proper workup fpr 2019/20 preseason...
get body right/fitter/stronger......get familiar to his home at PP

 

[HARKER]

Why would they do that when they have 2&3? If they weren't after Walsh they would still get the players they want with their picks. All they are doing in that deal is trading Martin for a future 2nd rounder.

I don't think so.
The signal has been sent out that SOS wants Walsh, but what if word gets out that he's actually after Lukosius and that's GC's premium target?
Do GC just sit back and accept what happens or do they want to secure the pick that will guarantee them who they want/need.

I've gone through the machinations of this scenario before and if we play our cards right, we may well get what we want and then some.
I don't think SOS cares for the #1 as much as he cares for the player he would have taken at #1. GC? They can do with holding the golden ticket.

 

[Stamos]

I don't think so.
The signal has been sent out that SOS wants Walsh, but what if word gets out that he's actually after Lukosius and that's GC's premium target?
Do GC just sit back and accept what happens or do they want to secure the pick that will guarantee them who they want/need.

I've gone through the machinations of this scenario before and if we play our cards right, we may well get what we want and then some.
I don't think SOS cares for the #1 as much as he cares for the player he would have taken at #1. GC? They can do with holding the golden ticket.

Gold Coast just don’t do that sort of trade, because the only reason SOS would, is because he’s getting who he wants anyway. So there’s no incentive for GCS to do it.

 

[HARKER]

Gold Coast just don’t do that sort of trade, because the only reason SOS would, is because he’s getting who he wants anyway. So there’s no incentive for GCS to do it.

You have to think of it this way;
You 'know' that Carlton are taking Walsh at #1 and you've spent the extra time with the players you want at #2 & #3 and fall in love with them and the idea of them in your team, but all of a sudden things get turned on their head and now you're not so sure of getting the player you want @ #2 which throws out the player you wanted at #3 (Let's say the S.A. friends and duo of Lukosius and Rozee)

Can't happen? It did only a couple of years ago when GWS paid a premium to get into the top two to take McGrath, only for the rug to be pulled from under their feet. If SOS plays his cards right, he may be able to extract a premium for the #1 whilst still getting the player he wants.

 

[Stamos]

You have to think of it this way;
You 'know' that Carlton are taking Walsh at #1 and you've spent the extra time with the players you want at #2 & #3 and fall in love with them and the idea of them in your team, but all of a sudden things get turned on their head and now you're not so sure of getting the player you want @ #2 which throws out the player you wanted at #3 (Let's say the S.A. friends and duo of Lukosius and Rozee)

Can't happen? It did only a couple of years ago when GWS paid a premium to get into the top two to take McGrath, only for the rug to be pulled from under their feet. If SOS plays his cards right, he may be able to extract a premium for the #1 whilst still getting the player he wants.

Giants traded up to get Taranto.
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-11-25/giants-get-their-man-with-big-game-player-taranto

And even if they were after McGrath, the analogy doesn’t work at all.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You have to think of it this way;
You 'know' that Carlton are taking Walsh at #1 and you've spent the extra time with the players you want at #2 & #3 and fall in love with them and the idea of them in your team, but all of a sudden things get turned on their head and now you're not so sure of getting the player you want @ #2 which throws out the player you wanted at #3 (Let's say the S.A. friends and duo of Lukosius and Rozee)

Can't happen? It did only a couple of years ago when GWS paid a premium to get into the top two to take McGrath, only for the rug to be pulled from under their feet. If SOS plays his cards right, he may be able to extract a premium for the #1 whilst still getting the player he wants.

But it's not the player he wants unless he is bluffing GC and I can't see that happening

 

[RoyalParade]

You have to think of it this way;
You 'know' that Carlton are taking Walsh at #1 and you've spent the extra time with the players you want at #2 & #3 and fall in love with them and the idea of them in your team, but all of a sudden things get turned on their head and now you're not so sure of getting the player you want @ #2 which throws out the player you wanted at #3 (Let's say the S.A. friends and duo of Lukosius and Rozee)

Can't happen? It did only a couple of years ago when GWS paid a premium to get into the top two to take McGrath, only for the rug to be pulled from under their feet. If SOS plays his cards right, he may be able to extract a premium for the #1 whilst still getting the player he wants.

I've got this funny feeling that we will trade #1. However, I don't think it will be until draft night.

 

[Blubagger71]

I've got this funny feeling that we will trade #1. However, I don't think it will be until draft night.

Interesting. I can see the headline "SOS leads from the front with new draft rules." OR "GC bamboozled by SOS on landmark trade deal."
It's a brave new world.
A bit like, "SOS, we are going to give you first crack at mature bodies from around the country to help develop the physical nature of the list. We don't really know the rules about how to do it, just take older blokes," implored the AFL.
"OK then, you don't really know the rules though?" SOS clarified, exuding a calm demeanour.
"Just use some older blokes to help your kids."
"That I can do."
Much to the chagrin of the AFL and the football world, SOS does exactly as he pleases and trades the 'old, hard nuts' for draft points to suit the Carlton agenda.
"SOS, that's not quite what we meant when we gave out the..."
"You said you didn't really know any rules though so, thanks folks. See you on draft night and we will play again."
Queue ride off into the sunset whistle..

 

[TommyPinch]

Gave a best 22 a try with our recent additions:

A. Fasola H. Mckay M. Mcgovern

M.Kennedy C.Curnow Z.Fisher

S. Petrevski Seton P. Cripps J. Setterfield

K. Simpson J Weitering S. Docherty

D. Thomas L. Jones C. Marchbank

M. Krewzer M.Murphy E. Curnow

P.Dow, S. Walsh, D. Lang, L. Plowman

-Emg – L.Obrien, J. Lamb, J. Pickett, M.Lobbe

 

[RoyalParade]

Interesting. I can see the headline "SOS leads from the front with new draft rules." OR "GC bamboozled by SOS on landmark trade deal."
It's a brave new world.
A bit like, "SOS, we are going to give you first crack at mature bodies from around the country to help develop the physical nature of the list. We don't really know the rules about how to do it, just take older blokes," implored the AFL.
"OK then, you don't really know the rules though?" SOS clarified, exuding a calm demeanour.
"Just use some older blokes to help your kids."
"That I can do."
Much to the chagrin of the AFL and the football world, SOS does exactly as he pleases and trades the 'old, hard nuts' for draft points to suit the Carlton agenda.
"SOS, that's not quite what we meant when we gave out the..."
"You said you didn't really know any rules though so, thanks folks. See you on draft night and we will play again."
Queue ride off into the sunset whistle..

Something like that!

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Yeah...i wouldn't even accept 8 & 13 from Adelaide for 1, and they won't offer more than that.

I am watching GWS.
Likely to have pick 9 (Bombers) and their own pick 14, and probably an additional future first after the Shiel trade.
GWS certainly knows how to trade up as it did to get Taranto.
Could package up Setterfield, Scully and Findlayson to get to pick 1.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Crows have 8, 13, 16 and 21.
Port has 10, 11, 23 and 30.
GWS will have a cache too after the Shiel trade.

The trade up opportunities:

Gold Coast has 2, 3, 19, 24 and 29
Fremantle could well have 5 (Neale to Brisbane) and 6

Say Crows make the move first and give 8 and 13 to Gold Coast for Picks 3 and 24.

Gold Coast would have 2, 8, 13, 19, 29.
Crows then have 3, 16, 21 and 24.

In that scenario, Port would not get the Pick 2 (Gold Coast) or 3 (Crows). Saints I don’t think will trade down 4 ... Demons could get 5 or 6 in Hogan trade, or both if it gives back say its first next year ... Does Port target Pick 1?
... Do Crows offer 3 and 21 for pick 1?

... Does GWS beat both Adelaide clubs to pick 3, and then trade up the pick 3 with say Setterfield for pick 1 ?

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

the only way we'd ever give up pick 1 is if we still retained a presence in the top 5 and i don't see any possibility of that happening. if the adelaide teams trade up it will be with the gold coast.

 

[BoltonsBlues]

How does live trading work... after wednesdays trade deadline

 

[SurreyBlue]

I've got this funny feeling that we will trade #1. However, I don't think it will be until draft night.

Please don’t say that......we went thru all this just to trade on the night? Give me strength.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Crows have 8, 13, 16 and 21.
Port has 10, 11, 23 and 30.
GWS will have a cache too after the Shiel trade.

The trade up opportunities:

Gold Coast has 2, 3, 19, 24 and 29
Fremantle could well have 5 (Neale to Brisbane) and 6

Say Crows make the move first and give 8 and 13 to Gold Coast for Picks 3 and 24.

Gold Coast would have 2, 8, 13, 19, 29.
Crows then have 3, 16, 21 and 24.

In that scenario, Port would not get the Pick 2 (Gold Coast) or 3 (Crows). Saints I don’t think will trade down 4 ... Demons could get 5 or 6 in Hogan trade, or both if it gives back say its first next year ... Does Port target Pick 1?
... Do Crows offer 3 and 21 for pick 1?

... Does GWS beat both Adelaide clubs to pick 3, and then trade up the pick 3 with say Setterfield for pick 1 ?

GC already have so many damn picks. they want quality

 

[Juddernaut08]

Turns 26 next year, only speculating, but may have thought by the time we're up there competing for premierships his career coming to a close. Essendon closer in his mind. Though I don't believe that for one second.

Lets play this out:

2018 - Shiel 25 - Carlton 18th
2019 - Shiel 26 - Carlton 12-16
2020 - Shiel 27 - Carlton 8-12
2021 - Shiel 28 - Carlton 4-8
2022 - Shiel 29 - Carlton top 4
2023 - Shiel 30 - Carlton top 4

He'd still be good for us, just a long time to waite.

 

[Jimmae]

How does live trading work... after wednesdays trade deadline

2018 and 2019 picks only, presumably subject to the same rules regarding future picks as the regular trading period. Runs on the same clock as that for the picks.

What this means is that between the end of the trade period and the draft, teams will be contacting each other to get an idea of who wants to move up or down, and what they're interested in to do so. From there, they'll organise trades that they might exercise on draft night depending on how the picks fall.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Setterfield wont be starting best 22 round 1 ......will only have a partial pre season with his ACL of Apr 2018.........he has not played consistently for a long time..
may see him mid season....managed roll to setup proper workup fpr 2019/20 preseason...
get body right/fitter/stronger......get familiar to his home at PP

February wasnt it?? Should be right for pre season is my understanding.


I'm telling you.. it will actually be tough pickings for our youth to grab a spot in the midfield (despite how shit we are in that portion of the ground)


Murphy, Curnow and Cripps the senior bodies but Kennedy, SPS, Lang, Cuningham, Dow, O'Brien, Walsh, Setterfield and Williamson all have legitimate claims to a spot, and that's before we get to the depth players like Kerridge and Graham

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Setterfield wont be starting best 22 round 1 ......will only have a partial pre season with his ACL of Apr 2018.........he has not played consistently for a long time..
may see him mid season....managed roll to setup proper workup fpr 2019/20 preseason...
get body right/fitter/stronger......get familiar to his home at PP

I wouldn't count on Setterfield's trade going smoothly.
I can see us having to trade next years first in some form to help pay for him.
I'm not too excited yet.
GWS WILL make us pay-up!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I wouldn't count on Setterfield's trade going smoothly.
I can see us having to trade next years first in some form to help pay for him.
I'm not too excited yet.
GWS WILL make us pay-up!

I'd say relax a bit.. that wont be happening

 

[inyourcool]

I don't understand why
They were somewhat encouraging Will to explore options, they have TPP pressure and apparently Will's on a generous contract for a 3rd year player (>$400k) so this requires GWS to come to the party somewhat

And when considering the injuries there are similarities to Ahern in that both are top end picks struck down by injury and it took a 4th round pick to get the job done for Ahern

Don't understand the stand off if there is one

 

[Nori]

I don't understand why
They were somewhat encouraging Will to explore options, they have TPP pressure and apparently Will's on a generous contract for a 3rd year player (>$400k) so this requires GWS to come to the party somewhat

And when considering the injuries there are similarities to Ahern in that both are top end picks struck down by injury and it took a 4th round pick to get the job done for Ahern

Don't understand the stand off if there is one

When Ahern was recruited he'd just done his second ACL and was going to miss his entire first season with Roos. At that stage he had played a single game.

Somewhat different to Setterfield, but also some similarities.

 

[inyourcool]

But still not vastly different that it would require us to pay overs, such as involving future 1st round or even 2nd round or swaps involving picks at that level

Doesn't stack up