Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

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Windhover said:
I agree completely with your thinking.

What might make things very interesting is if GCS get pick 5 (via hogan to freo, may to Melb).

If it is true that GCS want Walsh then they "need" (are prepared to pay a premium for) pick 1. Let's say pick 1 for picks 2 and 19.

According to this rating system: https://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=23062 (that Knightmare prefers) 1 = 146.95 points. 2 (125.91) + 19 (57.56)= 183.47 points.

GCS get Walsh and still have picks 3 and 5 as premium picks. Like us GCS are top heavy investors in youth and would not have any real "need" for pick 19 anyway, given all the young talent already developing plus picks 1,3 and 5.

Next, we know that Ade and PA are dead keen on Luk etc. They are inching their way up the draft board with every trade. Pick 2 will give them Luk. Port have pick 6 (92.55) and 10 (77.04); Ade have pick 8 (83.82) and 13 (69.08). If GCS pick Walsh then pick 2 will give the SA side Luc if they are prepared to pay the price. We all know the best auctions are when you have 2 bidders. And a unique product: Lukosius.

It may not happen (probably won't) but it is a chance. IMO Walsh would need to be the best pick 1 of all time to be worth more than picks 6, 10 and 19 or 8, 13 and 19. Those hung up on pick 1 and Walsh need to remember that there will inevitably be 17 Clubs who don't have Walsh. I am sure most of them will survive and many win premierships during his footy career.
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You are right about Walsh having to be the best pick 1 of all time to justify the price that some on here have put on pick 1.
I remember people saying they wouldn't do the semi realistic hypothetical of turning 1 and McAdam into Setterfield, Shiel and MM.
I can't see how the kid can ever live upto some people's expectations.
 

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So far traded 26 and 28 for Mitch McGovern

Two mature age access guys for pick 43 and future third round pick

Missed on Dylan Shiel as his price was bigger than our future 1st round pick.

Have Setterfield in play and just a matter of timing the deal at right time for right price for us.

Hopefully we working on trading Liam Jones and Casboult for whatever we can get for them.

If we can get an A grade mature mid for future round 1 pick after missing on Dylan Shiel would be good.
If not cue in rack on filling that void and concentrate on making most of that future pick in trying to get another pick in top 4 of this coming draft.

Get Walsh with pick one unless Gold Coast come with crazy good offer of a pick in top three and something else to us of real value to us in present.

But at present that stuff not in our control. What we can control is trading Liam Jones where we feel we can trade him. If May leaves Gold Coast trading him there would seem a chance imo.
 
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The equation is very simple. Use Pick 1 on Walsh and get Setterfield by giving GWS our future 2nd round pick next year and pick 43 this year. Also, take on any salary dump players GWS wishes to make to sweeten the deal.

If we get trade out Casboult for any picks, then great and use it for the draft.

If Liam Jones = a Top 30 pick, then trade him out as well and use it in the draft.
 
djholmes said:
The equation is very simple. Use Pick 1 on Walsh and get Setterfield by giving GWS our future 2nd round pick next year and pick 43 this year. Also, take on any salary dump players GWS wishes to make to sweeten the deal.

If we get trade out Casboult for any picks, then great and use it for the draft.

If Liam Jones = a Top 30 pick, then trade him out as well and use it in the draft.
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Nah no more dumps!
 
pinot said:
Unfortunately the closest I would contemplate trading Sam Walsh which is realistic is Adelaides 8+13+16 = ~3600 points.

I would do this trade just depends how desperately Adelaide want Lukosius and sell the farm for him.
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I wouldn't do that trade. There is an elite eight this year and we want to be in it. Only way I'd trade the 1st is if we retain a top 5 pick to select Bailey Smith
 
What do we KNOW for certain about the draft - Walsh is a consensus Top 3 and Adelaide and Port want Lukosious and Rankine (and Rozzee)

The only way we would retain Walsh by trading pick 1 is if we have at least pick #3 and Adelaide and Port have the first two picks..

If we are satisfied with Smith however there is a lot more flexibility.
 
Juddernaut08 said:
Why though?

Port: Luko
GC: King
GC: King
Saints: Walsh
Brisbane: Rankine/Smith
Carlton: Rankine/Smith

Pick 6 is where it's at imo

Pick 7 is the drop off.
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Talk is GC are super keen on Walsh, what if they take him at 2 and pair him with Smith at 3?

Holman was a midfield staple for them. Perhaps they feel some cheaper/state league talls can play a roll at each end and they’d like to focus on the midfield?

Situation gets amplified if Saints or Brisbane want a mid, if one of them goes for Rozee and the other takes Lukoius we’re basically down to picking one of the Kings or one of the ‘next tier’ mids like Hately, Caldwell, etc.

Hard to see us picking a King without having already grabbed one of Walsh, Smith, Rozee.

Then again, who knows (as we watch SOS turn 1 into 2 top 10 picks and pick both Kings...)



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CJMB said:
Holman was a midfield staple for them. Perhaps they feel some cheaper/state league talls can play a roll at each end and they’d like to focus on the midfield?
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M-VXiRSobfBp97UaQDOZ_1082123257.jpeg
 
CJMB said:
Talk is GC are super keen on Walsh, what if they take him at 2 and pair him with Smith at 3?
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Who said GC is super keen on Walsh? No one of substance, just BigFooty chatter.

GC are losing two bigs in Lynch and May.
Luko and Kings are needed by GC, not another hard-running mid.
 
dlb99 said:
Who said GC is super keen on Walsh? No one of substance, just BigFooty chatter.

GC are losing two bigs in Lynch and May.
Luko and Kings are needed by GC, not another hard-running mid.
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One of Wickzki's contacts, who works for them.

You really are butting heads around here.
 
dlb99 said:
Who said GC is super keen on Walsh? No one of substance, just BigFooty chatter.

GC are losing two bigs in Lynch and May.
Luko and Kings are needed by GC, not another hard-running mid.
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My contact is in the Suns management team. Out of all of my contacts that I have - quite a few know as I disclosed it recently - he's closer to the source than anyone. Everything that I've posted that this person has said (here and on Reddit) has been reported a day or two later by the media generally with quotes from the Suns. Yes, there's some added speculation thrown in - today's post specifically - but it's pretty clear what is and what isn't.

The Suns are rebuilding their entire list. They do need talls but they also need mids who can move the ball. Look at our second game against them for example (the win up here at Metricon). As soon as Swallow went down their midfield was shot. They believe Walsh is the best player available in the draft. It makes sense for them to target Walsh. They'll have other picks where they can draft one or both of the King brothers.

However, they wouldn't be too impressed with Fremantle's hardball game with Melbourne in regards to Hogan as that's where they expected to pick up at least one high pick for May.
 
CJMB said:
Talk is GC are super keen on Walsh, what if they take him at 2 and pair him with Smith at 3?

Holman was a midfield staple for them. Perhaps they feel some cheaper/state league talls can play a roll at each end and they’d like to focus on the midfield?

Situation gets amplified if Saints or Brisbane want a mid, if one of them goes for Rozee and the other takes Lukoius we’re basically down to picking one of the Kings or one of the ‘next tier’ mids like Hately, Caldwell, etc.

Hard to see us picking a King without having already grabbed one of Walsh, Smith, Rozee.

Then again, who knows (as we watch SOS turn 1 into 2 top 10 picks and pick both Kings...)



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
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Just feel that if they lose the big key posts May and Lynch (already gone), it makes too much sense to just replace them with young guns.
 
Juddernaut08 said:
Just feel that if they lose the big key posts May and Lynch (already gone), it makes too much sense to just replace them with young guns.
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Ruck: Witts, Nicholls

Key Forward: Wright, Day, Ballard

Key Defender: Thompson, Leslie

They need a key defender but they're still okay up front and in the ruck.
 
Wickzki said:
My contact is in the Suns management team. Out of all of my contacts that I have - quite a few know as I disclosed it recently - he's closer to the source than anyone. Everything that I've posted that this person has said (here and on Reddit) has been reported a day or two later by the media generally with quotes from the Suns. Yes, there's some added speculation thrown in - today's post specifically - but it's pretty clear what is and what isn't.

The Suns are rebuilding their entire list. They do need talls but they also need mids who can move the ball. Look at our second game against them for example (the win up here at Metricon). As soon as Swallow went down their midfield was shot. They believe Walsh is the best player available in the draft. It makes sense for them to target Walsh. They'll have other picks where they can draft one or both of the King brothers.

However, they wouldn't be too impressed with Fremantle's hardball game with Melbourne in regards to Hogan as that's where they expected to pick up at least one high pick for May.
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I hope it is true.

GC did give up pick 2 for Lachie Weller, so maybe we can trick them into giving big overs for pick 1 (aka pick 2 & 3).

We take Bailey Smith (at 3) and convert pick 2 into more picks (say 8 & 13 from Crows) and use them to get Rozee (8) & Setterfield (13).

So out Sam Walsh, in Smith & Rozee.

Suns would be mad to do it, I can't see it happening, I think GC will deal with Port/Adelaide to get multiple picks and players for 2&3.

I think we will draft Sam Walsh and use next's years picks to get Setterfield.
 
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