Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[norway blue]

Cool thnx for that. How is he at ground level and kicked any goals ?


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[BoltonsBlues]

FB - S Dochety, J Weitering, L Plowman
HB - K Simpson, C Marchbank, T Williamson
C - Marc Murphy, Paddy Dow, Matthew Kennedy
HF - Zac Fisher, Charlie Curnow, Lukosius
FF - Jarrod Pickett, Harry McKay, ????
R - Matthew Kreuzer, Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow
I - Sam Petrevski-Seton, Lochie O'Brien, D Cuningham,???? My Next years best 22..... L Casboult, Mullet, Graham, jones, lobbe, oshea, lamb, rowe, wright can all go one way or another. .. Lukosius looks good in our forward line... walsh would be good but i feel we need a experienced mid or 2 through trades or free agency. Our needs are forwards. And quick mids that play forward. Also a developing pure ruck.

 

[Soapy V]

I’ll take anyone who can play football at this stage mate

Short term thinking. This is about long term success

 

[Soapy V]

An interesting aspect of the list of 11 players Lloyd would delist at year's end: none of them involve fresh talent drafted in 2015/16 or 17.

The players listed are:

1. O'Shea - drafted on the back of a good VFL season in 2017.
2. Graham - drafted before 2015.
3. Kerridge - brought in from Crows.
4. Daisy - MM's sweetheart.
5. Lamb - Sydney then GWS.
6. Lobbe - ex-Port.
7. Mullett - ex Norf.
8. ASOS - ex Freo.
9. Rowe - drafted before 2015.
10. Shaw - ex GC.
11. Caz - drafted before 2015.

What this means is that none of our many youngsters picked up in 2015/16 or 17 is yet considered a proven bust. I agree.

As to the above 11 players I would not get rid of Kerridege Daisy, Lamb, Lobbe or Caz. IMO Caz is an AFL quality player who is not helped by being a forward at a lowly club. He has worked on his game and improved year on year. We are all hoping Harry goes past him (and I hope is picked ahead of him for the rest of this year) but Harry is not yet ahead of him.

Daisy has deserved to be picked every week he has played this year. This could not be said of him in previous years (which shows the extent to which the list has deteriorated, largely through injury).

Lamb is not AFL quality but he has a go and has a presence on the field. He can put pressure on youngsters (Pickett, Garlett, Polson, SOJ) to hold their form to be picked ahead of him next year.

Kerridge is AFL quality despite his error-prone play. His tank is important in today's running game and he was probably missed against the Lions. He can put pressure on L'OB, Williamson and other gut-runners to keep their form or replace if injured.

Lobbe is needed as a back-up front-line ruckman to Kreuzer and Phillips in case of injury. He could be replaced by another mature ruckman.

The other 6 listed should go.

As to trade/draft strategy there is a case to be made for trading pick 1, Lukosius. GC will likely lose Lynch and receive pick 3 in the draft as compensation to go with their pick 1. GC will need a KPF AND a marquee player that will keep their fans interested. Lukosius would be that fit.

If we have pick 1 then despite confidence in Charlie and Harry I do not believe Lukosius can be past up. He is too good and could play in the backline, on a wing or forward.

GC have a heap of developing/developed midfielders that could sweeten a swap of pick 1 for pick 2 along the lines of Lyons (who we could have got as a sweetener for Gibbs 2 years ago) Aaron Hall or Brodie. Then add Sam Walsh with pick 2 and this would accelerate the development of our midfield where we are surely weakest. And once we have some control in the midfield then:
(a) our defenders who got swamped by unpressured entry by the Lions won't look so bad; and
(b) we will be able to keep some players in the forward line to mop up any spillage from Charlie; and
(c) we might be able to better hit targets in the forward line to give SOJ and Caz the confidence to lead.

We could easily get rid of up to 12 players depending upon draft/trade period. Given your comments who would they be?

 

[Soapy V]

FB - S Dochety, J Weitering, L Plowman
HB - K Simpson, C Marchbank, T Williamson
C - Marc Murphy, Paddy Dow, Matthew Kennedy
HF - Zac Fisher, Charlie Curnow, Lukosius
FF - Jarrod Pickett, Harry McKay, ????
R - Matthew Kreuzer, Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow
I - Sam Petrevski-Seton, Lochie O'Brien, D Cuningham,???? My Next years best 22..... L Casboult, Mullet, Graham, jones, lobbe, oshea, lamb, rowe, wright can all go one way or another. .. Lukosius looks good in our forward line... walsh would be good but i feel we need a experienced mid or 2 through trades or free agency. Our needs are forwards. And quick mids that play forward. Also a developing pure ruck.

I wouldn't write off Polson Garlett or LeBois just yet. A lot of the holes people keep talking about could easily be filled by what we have. Patience

 

[thylacine60]

I wouldn't write off Polson or Garlett just yet. A lot of the holes people keep talking about could easily be filled by what we have. Patience

 

[BoltonsBlues]

I wouldn't write off Polson Garlett or LeBois just yet. A lot of the holes people keep talking about could easily be filled by what we have. Patience

Not anywhere in my post did i say i want any of those players gone. All 3 i would love to keep on the list in 2019. I stated who i want gone

 

[Soapy V]

Not anywhere in my post did i say i want any of those players gone. All 3 i would love to keep on the list in 2019. I stated who i want gone

I know. You said we need forwards and I mentioned a few on our list that could step up. There is also TDK & Kerr who I think will be good players

 

[Cringle]

Interesting ideas on the main board thrown up by opposition posters.

Potentially trading pick 1 to Adelaide for their pick 8, 13 and 19.

Three attempts in the top 20 for a 15 year KPF that Adelaide are supposedly desperate for.

 

[Soapy V]

Interesting ideas on the main board thrown up by opposition posters.

Potentially trading pick 1 to Adelaide for their pick 8, 13 and 19.

Three attempts in the top 20 for a 15 year KPF that Adelaide are supposedly desperate for.

Be very tempting

 

[Mr_Plow]

Interesting ideas on the main board thrown up by opposition posters.

Potentially trading pick 1 to Adelaide for their pick 8, 13 and 19.

Three attempts in the top 20 for a 15 year KPF that Adelaide are supposedly desperate for.

On points value alone, that's a great trade for us.

Although, my preference is that we retain a top 5 pick somehow whilst adding a mid-first round pick.

I'd like to add one of Walsh/Smith + perhaps SOS can get one of his King boys.

 

[Stamos]

We could easily get rid of up to 12 players depending upon draft/trade period. Given your comments who would they be?

We could easily get rid of 12, but we can't easily replace 12. Even if that's all 4 rookies, that still requires another 8 players in, which given our lack of currency, just isn't easy.

 

[BoltonsBlues]

I know. You said we need forwards and I mentioned a few on our list that could step up. There is also TDK & Kerr who I think will be good players

All those players i see another year of development with a few games in the seniors next year. Great signs from kerr, mcreadie, TDK, and garlett. Atm we are getting one great game from every 3 games from garlett. And thats wearing blue coloured glasses. Honest opinon i dont see much in polson or lebois. But they are young enough and shown enough for another year to persist with.

 

[Soapy V]

We could easily get rid of 12, but we can't easily replace 12. Even if that's all 4 rookies, that still requires another 8 players in, which given our lack of currency, just isn't easy.

I know that's why I said depending upon trade/draft period. If we can get 2 x FA's & Brodie/Scrimshaw (as examples) maybe even Lloyd we would get there easily. If we trade Pick One for 2 picks and a player I can see 12 changes.

Not easy but we have turned over more in last 3 years. I am sure SOS will be working hard on a number of deals

 

[BoltonsBlues]

Another option. Get sloane through free agency. Then trade pick one and next years first to crows for their first and first next year + the sloane compo+ the pick they got off melbourne for lever. (Im in the keep pick one camp btw... this is me being bored) edit. Crows will be betting on them finishing high next year and us low again.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

I wouldn't write off Polson Garlett or LeBois just yet. A lot of the holes people keep talking about could easily be filled by what we have. Patience

You could be right. But on the other hand we cant keep em like Buckley, White and Armfield for years on end if we want to progress. I'm not saying cut any of those 3 at year end. But each should have shown enough by end of 2019 to warrant staying on our list.

Same as you take a liking for your 3; others took a nice liking for the 3 i mentioned.

List management requires a bit of hardness from someone if we really want success.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Interesting ideas on the main board thrown up by opposition posters.

Potentially trading pick 1 to Adelaide for their pick 8, 13 and 19.

Three attempts in the top 20 for a 15 year KPF that Adelaide are supposedly desperate for.

Sounds good but Carlton would be taking too much of a risk on 13/19. Normally, top 5 (with mids anyway), you can lock in a 200 gamer barring injury. 13/19 are playing with fire for a club that should be taking no risks given our position. There is a chance we screw those picks up.

I'd knock it back and pick Luko who is rolled gold.

I'd only swap it for two picks inside top 10 with one guaranteeing a vic midfielder of the calibre of Smith.

 

[J-dog]

Interesting ideas on the main board thrown up by opposition posters.

Potentially trading pick 1 to Adelaide for their pick 8, 13 and 19.

Three attempts in the top 20 for a 15 year KPF that Adelaide are supposedly desperate for.

Maybe I'm asking too much but I would have thought pick 1 would be worth 2 X top ten picks. I don't care for points, but to get your pick of all the kids and the best chance at a gun is worth more than 2 kids passed over at least 4 times or more.
1 kid can make all the difference. Look at Cripps. Or Daniher. Or Hogan. Or....

 

[GapInIkonPark]

So many factors ...

Last year we had largely uninterrupted and solid if not excellent seasons from our senior folk: Kreuzer, Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs, Wright, Thomas, Casboult, and an all-Australian year from Docherty.

Gibbs traded, Docherty out for the year, Murphy and Kreuzer injured a lot, and Casboult too.


Kennedy, Lang, SPS, Weitering, Pickett, Marchbank and Williamson and ASOS all injured pre-season and for large parts of the year (all year for Williamson bar one and a bit VFL games). Kerridge, Cuningham, Plowman and Macreadie injured too and missed plenty. McKay a virus / flu thingy and some work-rate issues ...


So that’s a large part of our best players injured or well behind par.


It has hurt our young players in my opinion. We have zilch pressure in midfield, forward, anywhere really, and not enough strong bodies and leadership on the park. Too much repeat entries into defensive 50 and poor haphazard entry into forward 50 (has hurt Jack along with poor form).

Good signs from Dow and O’Brien in their first year. Pleased with Fisher and Charlie’s year.

So who’s top 3 in the BnF? Cripps ... Ed ... Simmo ? Perhaps Charlie and Fisher up there ? Who else?


No question SOS needs to make every post a winner in the upcoming free agency, trade and draft period: a healthy and fit list in 2019 will go a long way to improving things. We have to improve the midfield. If bottom clubs including Saints, North, Gold Coast and Brisbane and us all struggle to land the better free agents, and we have a chance to land Shiel for our first plus decent change, then I suggest we take that chance. It is not a quick fix solution. It is support for Cripps, Murphy, Ed, and for a few kids ... Dow, O’Brien, Fisher, SPS, Cuningham, Kennedy ...

 

[Cringle]

Sounds good but Carlton would be taking too much of a risk on 13/19. Normally, top 5 (with mids anyway), you can lock in a 200 gamer barring injury. 13/19 are playing with fire for a club that should be taking no risks given our position. There is a chance we screw those picks up.

I'd knock it back and pick Luko who is rolled gold.

I'd only swap it for two picks inside top 10 with one guaranteeing a vic midfielder of the calibre of Smith.

Just looking at recent history of the picks...

2013
#1 T.Boyd
or
#8 L.McDonald
#13 P.Cripps
#19 B. Acres

2014
#1 P.McCartin
or
#8 P.Wright
#13 L.Weller
#19 B.Boekhorst

2015
#1 J.Weitering
or
#8 C.Ah Chee
#13 M.Kennedy
#19 R.Burton

2016
#1 A.McGrath
or
#8 G.Logue
#13 D.Venables
#19 T.English


Surely the later three picks are more valuable. Adelaide would have to be really interested in JL for them to consider an offer like this.

 

[Benaly28]

Picks 8 and 13 (approx 2700 pts) plus one of McGovern/Bcrouch/Gallucci for pick 1(3000pts).

Pick 13 and Levi for Scrimshaw AND Brodie.

Pick 8 Connor Rozee/Bailey Smith/Jackson Hately

Pick 23 For Jack Billings(Saints need second rounders)

Pick 26 And future first for Dylan Shiel.

IN:Shiel,Mcgovern,Brodie,Scrimshaw,Billings,Rozee

 

[Benaly28]

Delistings end of year:
JGM
Graham
Kerridge
Lamb
Lebois
O’Shea
Rowe
Shaw
ASOS
Thomas( may keep just for experience)

 

[Soapy V]

You could be right. But on the other hand we cant keep em like Buckley, White and Armfield for years on end if we want to progress. I'm not saying cut any of those 3 at year end. But each should have shown enough by end of 2019 to warrant staying on our list.

Same as you take a liking for your 3; others took a nice liking for the 3 i mentioned.

List management requires a bit of hardness from someone if we really want success.

SOS will make the tough decisions. No doubt. The players you mentioned were older and had heaps of chances.

It’s not about favourites for me. They are young and will be on list next year so need to be considered. I’m not writing off any young players just yet. Still early

 

[Stamos]

Need to go, in approximate order
Rookies
ASOS
JGM
Shaw
(and maybe LeBois)

Senior List
O'Shea
Graham
Rowe
Wright
Mullet

And depending on how many we can get in
Lobbe
Daisy
Lamb

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Need to go, in approximate order
Rookies
ASOS
JGM
Shaw
(and maybe LeBois)

Senior List
O'Shea
Graham
Rowe
Wright
Mullet

And depending on how many we can get in
Lobbe
Daisy
Lamb

I like that list too Stamos. I'd leave LeBois personally due to the glaring hole in our forward line (good/fit smalls). Having said that, I don't think he will make it.

I'm really hoping for my sanity that we don't need the likes of Daisy/Lamb in 2019. That would most likely mean SoS found a mature ager.