Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[blue healer]

I agree with I not confident of FA at moment. There also does not seem to be much in trades winds at moment that excites me. Wallis for a pick 30 type thing I would do but more a protection thing for Cripps rather than outright loving Wallis. I'd trade Casboult for him too for straight swap. Short of that, we maybe forced just to accept there is no real types out there we going to find and just accept we are not going to fill that gap in 25 to 27 age bracket.

I suspect your last sentence is closer to the reality than the dream. I hope to be surprised.

 

[katmanblue]

Saw a lot of Sam when he was on Freo's list, playing for Peel.
Won the B & F for Peel in his final year.
Unlucky not to get many games with Freo, but was very solid in defense for Peel and helped them win the WAFL GF.
Strong overhead mark, good kick, but really seemed to panic.
Very cool customer.
Would love to see at the Blues, even to just come into the 1's when needed

Is that rarely or really? Big difference.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Yubby]

I’ve been having a think about possible trades that other clubs might be interested in doing that also help us get some better early picks this year. The first one I thought of was with the Dogs… picks 6 & 59 for 24,27 and our 2nd next year. We overpay to get pick 6 this year but help the dogs get the picks they need for their 2 father son/academy picks. That said, I doubt they’d go for it as they would want to keep pick 6 this draft and find other ways to get the points they need for the 2 F/S picks unless the deal was better for them.

WBD 6, 59 = 1909 points
CAR 23, 26, 2019 2nd (1) = 2436 points

So next I thought about our 24 & 27 for their 59 and next year’s 1st (6ish?). Means we get another early first round pick which might be handy for any trades for Shiel if he is available but otherwise doesn’t help us this year which we may not be that interested in.

WBD 59, 2019 1st (6) = 1909 points
CAR 24, 27 = 1488 points

I rethought the last 2 trades and ended up with a new bigger trade that allows gets us a pretty good result and the other clubs. Refer to below for the outcomes.

WBD 6, 59, 2019 1st (6) = 3606 points
CAR 24, 27, 2019 1st(1) = 4488 points

GCS 2, 26 = 3246 points
CAR 1, 67 = 3069 points

BRI 4, 38 = 2499 points
CAR 6, 26 = 2687 points

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 2,4,38,59,74
Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 3rd (37)


All 3 deals I think mostly work, Dogs take a gamble on getting the number 1 pick next year which means they would be less worried about missing out this year. The deal is massively in their favour in terms of points should ladder positions remain the same next year. The Suns trade gives them first pick at who they want in the draft which I think would be pretty hard for them to pass up. Trade is otherwise pretty fair and reflects our giving up the number 1 position. Of course this means we have to be happy to take either Walsh or Lukosius which I am. The 3rd trade with Brisbane may need a bit more going their way but I think they wouldn’t be as desperate for a top 4 pick as we would be to trade up from 6 hence why they may do it. Possibly needs another late pick in here to sweeten it.

In the end this leaves us with picks 2 and 4 which gives us 2 of Lukosius, Walsh, Rankine, King(s), Smith which is a pretty fantastic draft in my opinion. All really for the sake of our 2nds and a swap of 1sts next year. Plenty of risk and plenty of reward.

I also looked at another variation which gives us more picks if we wanted quantity over quality. Similar trades as before with dogs and Brisbane but instead involves Adelaide and getting their picks. Ultimately we end up with picks 4,9,14,22 and some others. My preference is probably the previous option due to the higher quality.

ADE 9,14,20 = 3542 points
CAR 1 = 3000 points

WBD 6, 59, 2019 1st (6) = 3606 points
CAR 24, 27, 2019 1st(1) = 4488 points

BRI 4, 22 = 2879 points
CAR 6, 20, 2019 3rd(37) = 3146 points

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 4,9,14,22,59,67,74
Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 4th (55)

With this version we get 1 of the 5 players i mentioned before but also really get 3 more picks inside of the top 22 which could really help.

What do people think of the trade ideas?

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

I just want to say well done on going to the depth that you did!

I'll leave the list management to the experts TerryWallet and Arr0w

And of course Jimmae

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Yubby I see we have another Villa fan!

Good stuff mate

 

[BlueRenaissance]

I just want to say well done on going to the depth that you did!

I'll leave the list management to the experts TerryWallet and Arr0w

And of course Jimmae

It was a long read but a very good effort.

 

[AceAndy]

Yubby I see we have another Villa fan!

Good stuff mate

Pretty sure Sublime is a big Villa fan. Not sure he is still on BF though, havent seen him around for a while.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

I’ve been having a think about possible trades that other clubs might be interested in doing that also help us get some better early picks this year. The first one I thought of was with the Dogs… picks 6 & 59 for 24,27 and our 2nd next year. We overpay to get pick 6 this year but help the dogs get the picks they need for their 2 father son/academy picks. That said, I doubt they’d go for it as they would want to keep pick 6 this draft and find other ways to get the points they need for the 2 F/S picks unless the deal was better for them.

WBD 6, 59 = 1909 points
CAR 23, 26, 2019 2nd (1) = 2436 points

So next I thought about our 24 & 27 for their 59 and next year’s 1st (6ish?). Means we get another early first round pick which might be handy for any trades for Shiel if he is available but otherwise doesn’t help us this year which we may not be that interested in.

WBD 59, 2019 1st (6) = 1909 points
CAR 24, 27 = 1488 points

I rethought the last 2 trades and ended up with a new bigger trade that allows gets us a pretty good result and the other clubs. Refer to below for the outcomes.

WBD 6, 59, 2019 1st (6) = 3606 points
CAR 24, 27, 2019 1st(1) = 4488 points

GCS 2, 26 = 3246 points
CAR 1, 67 = 3069 points

BRI 4, 38 = 2499 points
CAR 6, 26 = 2687 points

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 2,4,38,59,74
Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 3rd (37)


All 3 deals I think mostly work, Dogs take a gamble on getting the number 1 pick next year which means they would be less worried about missing out this year. The deal is massively in their favour in terms of points should ladder positions remain the same next year. The Suns trade gives them first pick at who they want in the draft which I think would be pretty hard for them to pass up. Trade is otherwise pretty fair and reflects our giving up the number 1 position. Of course this means we have to be happy to take either Walsh or Lukosius which I am. The 3rd trade with Brisbane may need a bit more going their way but I think they wouldn’t be as desperate for a top 4 pick as we would be to trade up from 6 hence why they may do it. Possibly needs another late pick in here to sweeten it.

In the end this leaves us with picks 2 and 4 which gives us 2 of Lukosius, Walsh, Rankine, King(s), Smith which is a pretty fantastic draft in my opinion. All really for the sake of our 2nds and a swap of 1sts next year. Plenty of risk and plenty of reward.

I also looked at another variation which gives us more picks if we wanted quantity over quality. Similar trades as before with dogs and Brisbane but instead involves Adelaide and getting their picks. Ultimately we end up with picks 4,9,14,22 and some others. My preference is probably the previous option due to the higher quality.

ADE 9,14,20 = 3542 points
CAR 1 = 3000 points

WBD 6, 59, 2019 1st (6) = 3606 points
CAR 24, 27, 2019 1st(1) = 4488 points

BRI 4, 22 = 2879 points
CAR 6, 20, 2019 3rd(37) = 3146 points

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 4,9,14,22,59,67,74
Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 4th (55)

With this version we get 1 of the 5 players i mentioned before but also really get 3 more picks inside of the top 22 which could really help.

What do people think of the trade ideas?

Post more often. I think as you identified, the spanner in the works is the doggies. Pick 6 means the doggies pick up one of 'the incredibles' in 2018 so not likely to give it away. F/S West wont be called out prior to that so they can take him with a later pick and get a gun with 6.

 

[Cliffords Blues]

Is that rarely or really? Big difference.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

rarely
Apologies for making a typo.
What was I thinking.
The internet has come to a stand still lol

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Just to labour the point (I'm quite satisfied with LOB's progression this year, very pleased actually), weren't Sydney going to take him with their first pick a few picks after?

They are the best in the business as far as I am concerned.

Can confirm that they had him very very high on their draft board. Higher than where we took him.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

You can say you don't rate him but don't make up lies. I know for a FACT that we he second choice for a club earlier if someone else wasn't available and that 2 clubs almost straight after ours told him they would pick him if available.

Maybe some were surprised Carlton picked him because prior to draft they made absolutely no promises whether they would pick him or not.

Yeah exactly, mate at the swannies told me essentially the same thing. They loved him and just to add on. They didn’t rate Fogarty.

 

[The Ian PrenderCast]

Great stuff and not too far removed from what we talk about in Part II of our Carlton Carol podcast - available via links in my signature! Have yourself a listen, people.

I’ve been having a think about possible trades that other clubs might be interested in doing that also help us get some better early picks this year. The first one I thought of was with the Dogs… picks 6 & 59 for 24,27 and our 2nd next year. We overpay to get pick 6 this year but help the dogs get the picks they need for their 2 father son/academy picks. That said, I doubt they’d go for it as they would want to keep pick 6 this draft and find other ways to get the points they need for the 2 F/S picks unless the deal was better for them.

WBD 6, 59 = 1909 points
CAR 23, 26, 2019 2nd (1) = 2436 points

So next I thought about our 24 & 27 for their 59 and next year’s 1st (6ish?). Means we get another early first round pick which might be handy for any trades for Shiel if he is available but otherwise doesn’t help us this year which we may not be that interested in.

WBD 59, 2019 1st (6) = 1909 points
CAR 24, 27 = 1488 points

I rethought the last 2 trades and ended up with a new bigger trade that allows gets us a pretty good result and the other clubs. Refer to below for the outcomes.

WBD 6, 59, 2019 1st (6) = 3606 points
CAR 24, 27, 2019 1st(1) = 4488 points

GCS 2, 26 = 3246 points
CAR 1, 67 = 3069 points

BRI 4, 38 = 2499 points
CAR 6, 26 = 2687 points

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 2,4,38,59,74
Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 3rd (37)


All 3 deals I think mostly work, Dogs take a gamble on getting the number 1 pick next year which means they would be less worried about missing out this year. The deal is massively in their favour in terms of points should ladder positions remain the same next year. The Suns trade gives them first pick at who they want in the draft which I think would be pretty hard for them to pass up. Trade is otherwise pretty fair and reflects our giving up the number 1 position. Of course this means we have to be happy to take either Walsh or Lukosius which I am. The 3rd trade with Brisbane may need a bit more going their way but I think they wouldn’t be as desperate for a top 4 pick as we would be to trade up from 6 hence why they may do it. Possibly needs another late pick in here to sweeten it.

In the end this leaves us with picks 2 and 4 which gives us 2 of Lukosius, Walsh, Rankine, King(s), Smith which is a pretty fantastic draft in my opinion. All really for the sake of our 2nds and a swap of 1sts next year. Plenty of risk and plenty of reward.

I also looked at another variation which gives us more picks if we wanted quantity over quality. Similar trades as before with dogs and Brisbane but instead involves Adelaide and getting their picks. Ultimately we end up with picks 4,9,14,22 and some others. My preference is probably the previous option due to the higher quality.

ADE 9,14,20 = 3542 points
CAR 1 = 3000 points

WBD 6, 59, 2019 1st (6) = 3606 points
CAR 24, 27, 2019 1st(1) = 4488 points

BRI 4, 22 = 2879 points
CAR 6, 20, 2019 3rd(37) = 3146 points

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 4,9,14,22,59,67,74
Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 4th (55)

With this version we get 1 of the 5 players i mentioned before but also really get 3 more picks inside of the top 22 which could really help.

What do people think of the trade ideas?

 

[footyfan1978]

Start 2018 - 1,24,27,67,74
Finish 2018 - 2,4,38,59,74

Start 2019 - 1st (1), 2nd (19), 3rd (37), 4th (55)
Finish 2019 - 1st (6), 2nd (19), 3rd (37)

What do people think of the trade ideas?

Don't mind it. Happy to take gamble on next years draft based on backing ourselves to climb towards middle of ladder. If we could get 2 & 4 from this draft would love it.

This also seems more in line with creative trades SOS seems to be able to pull off.

 

[Yubby]

Post more often. I think as you identified, the spanner in the works is the doggies. Pick 6 means the doggies pick up one of 'the incredibles' in 2018 so not likely to give it away. F/S West wont be called out prior to that so they can take him with a later pick and get a gun with 6.

Thanks BlueRenaissance. I read the forum most days but as you can see by my post count, i haven't posted too often over the last 10 years.

You are right that most of this hinges on what the Dogs will do. Hopefully they view our 2019 season as a pick 1 or 2 which may sway their thinking on pick 6 this year.... especially if they are after a type that might be gone by 6. They do also have a problem currently which is that both of their F/S picks are likely to command 2nd round picks and they don't have one at this point. This means they are somewhat motivated to bring in 2nd round picks to prevent overpaying with pick 6 or going into points deficit hence why i feel there may be an opportunity here to get 6.

 

[pinot]

Priority pick is an absolute necessity unfortunately.

 

[Arr0w]

Priority pick is an absolute necessity unfortunately.

No it's not

 

[La Dispute]

Great post Yubby

Pick 4 gives us a crack at 1 of Walsh and Bailey, and possibly even Rankine, then with Pick 9 we can grab someone like Hately.

Huge

 

[inyourcool]

Yes it is

And we don't even have to change anything to warrant - our poor performance over an extended period essentially justifies it

Simples!

 

[HARKER]

We have pick #1. No getting away from it now.
It may be a good thing for us that Gold Coast won today and especially so, it was without Lynch.

Good because it may take them out of Priority Pick discussion and may have them consider trading what will likely be picks #2 & #3 & a second rounder for Lukosius & our first next year. Reckon we'd do that trade leaving us with either one pick in the top three, whilst gaining Shiel, or two picks in the top 3 this year.

I know I'm going on about this possible arrangement, but it just makes perfect sense to me....if indeed GC want to buy themselves members next year.

 

[Jimmae]

What would be your strategy to fill the enormous midfield hole? I mean most top sides, besides West Coast, are succeeding with 1-2 key forwards. We have Curnow, McKay and Kerr as three promising tall forwards.

The other attribute of top sides is an elite, deep midfield. Look at Collingwood... Star studded midfield. What's the point of having an elite forward line without the engine room to get the ball forward.

In my opinion our preferred option should be to draft Walsh or Smith. . Happy to have that debate.

Future midfield: Cripps, Dow, Walsh/Smith, Fisher, SPS, LOB, Kennedy and maybe Cunningham. Plus we might include some more mature midfielders in coming years.

How I see our starting 18 looking in 2019-2020:

FB: Plowman Jones/Macreadie Marchbank
HB: Docherty Weitering Williamson
C: Murphy E.Curnow Dow
HF: SPS C.Curnow O'Brien
FF: Pickett McKay Fisher

R: Kreuzer Cripps Kennedy

Now obviously that's the entire list being fit, but then you can move over to the next tier to see there's plenty of 'role players' with some elite attributes as well:

Tier 1: TDK, Lang, Byrne, JSOS (inside mid), Garlett, Cuningham, Macreadie/Jones (whichever isn't in that first 18).

Tier 2: Kerridge, Polson, Schumacher, McDaid

The job from there is to identify what we're missing, and where we're aging the most and do our best to position ourselves to renew at those positions. In terms of what we're missing in that top 18, it's:

Medium forward
Small forward
Inside mids with burst (I'm not sold on Cuningham, Kennedy and JSOS being our solution alongside Cripps and Dow)

And in terms of what we'll need to renew at over time:

Ruck
KPD
Balanced mid (i.e. medium/tall mid that can do damage at stoppages and open play)

In terms of draft prospects, Walsh is arguably the least suitable for us, alongside the King brothers. I also see the game moving past the types of players that they are, unless they are very special.

In terms of Walsh, here's the guys that are at or above his level as a midfielder in recent drafts:

2015 - Mills, Oliver, Milera, Hopper, Parish
2016 - McGrath, Taranto, McCluggage, Setterfield, SPS
2017 - Brayshaw, Dow, LDU, Cerra

Walsh is a form of player you can regularly find, you can regularly find them at his quality level (or better) with a top 10 pick. So it's not just that I don't rate Walsh as high as some, I also don't see how he better completes our team compared to the some of the other top 10 prospects.

 

[Coona Blues]

We have pick #1. No getting away from it now.
It may be a good thing for us that Gold Coast won today and especially so, it was without Lynch.

Good because it may take them out of Priority Pick discussion and may have them consider trading what will likely be picks #2 & #3 & a second rounder for Lukosius & our first next year. Reckon we'd do that trade leaving us with either one pick in the top three, whilst gaining Shiel, or two picks in the top 3 this year.

I know I'm going on about this possible arrangement, but it just makes perfect sense to me....if indeed GC want to buy themselves members next year.

Enough GC fans are irate at the trading of pick 2 for Weller, not sure they would be that game to potentially upset
the fan base. A gun mid and one of the King boys surely a safer option. May get one of their picks and a player for
the opportunity to take Lukosius if they view the more mobile and ready to go Luko as preferable to a King if deemed
a greater go home risk.

 

[La Dispute]

We have pick #1. No getting away from it now.
It may be a good thing for us that Gold Coast won today and especially so, it was without Lynch.

Good because it may take them out of Priority Pick discussion and may have them consider trading what will likely be picks #2 & #3 & a second rounder for Lukosius & our first next year. Reckon we'd do that trade leaving us with either one pick in the top three, whilst gaining Shiel, or two picks in the top 3 this year.

I know I'm going on about this possible arrangement, but it just makes perfect sense to me....if indeed GC want to buy themselves members next year.

It's not even just about members next year - they're replacing their gun key-forward with the most highly touted key forward since Tom Boyd.

We then get to swoop on Walsh/Smith and Rankine.

 

[Foucault1989]

How I see our starting 18 looking in 2019-2020:

FB: Plowman Jones/Macreadie Marchbank
HB: Docherty Weitering Williamson
C: Murphy E.Curnow Dow
HF: SPS C.Curnow O'Brien
FF: Pickett McKay Fisher

Now obviously that's the entire list being fit, but then you can move over to the next tier to see there's plenty of 'role players' with some elite attributes as well:

Tier 1: TDK, Lang, Byrne, JSOS (inside mid), Garlett, Cuningham, Macreadie/Jones (whichever isn't in that first 18).

Tier 2: Kerridge, Polson, Schumacher, McDaid

The job from there is to identify what we're missing, and where we're aging the most and do our best to position ourselves to renew at those positions. In terms of what we're missing in that top 18, it's:

Medium forward
Small forward
Inside mids with burst (I'm not sold on Cuningham, Kennedy and JSOS being our solution alongside Cripps and Dow)

And in terms of what we'll need to renew at over time:

Ruck
KPD
Balanced mid (i.e. medium/tall mid that can do damage at stoppages and open play)

In terms of draft prospects, Walsh is arguably the least suitable for us, alongside the King brothers. I also see the game moving past the types of players that they are, unless they are very special.

In terms of Walsh, here's the guys that are at or above his level as a midfielder in recent drafts:

2015 - Mills, Oliver, Milera, Hopper, Parish
2016 - McGrath, Taranto, McCluggage, Setterfield, SPS
2017 - Brayshaw, Dow, LDU, Cerra

Walsh is a form of player you can regularly find, you can regularly find them at his quality level (or better) with a top 10 pick. So it's not just that I don't rate Walsh as high as some, I also don't see how he better completes our team compared to the some of the other top 10 prospects.

From my perspective you are under selling Walsh. I see an all round midfielder, who is a natural footballer and that attribute transcends any era of football. From what I've heard he is also an outstanding young man with exceptional leadership qualities, which with a list as young as ours must be taken into consideration. I take your point that there are quality mids in each draft, my point is that it is time to take ours as this area is where we are lacking the most. We seriously need to invest significant energy into bolstering our midfield stocks as by AFL standard it is well below sub par. I believe we have sufficiently drafted key backs and forwards and can nab a mature ruckman to fill a void in three years time (and we have TDK developing) but right need we need elite mids and from my viewing Walsh would be ideal. I would take him ahead of any of the mids drafted last year and on par with McCluggage

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Get me via trades:
Angus Brayshaw
Jade Gresham
Jayden Short
Jake Lloyd
Will Brodie

FAs:
J McGovern
Wallis
Dahlhous

Keep a pick in the top 10 somehow. Happy to trade any pick next year except our 1st

And ill be happy.
Dont care how. Just do it