Mega Thread 2018 Trade Period Discussion part 2! (cont. in Part 3 - link in OP)

[Scorpus]

And just to contradict my last post, thoughts on trying to grab Sam Day next year as a Restricted Free Agent?

Absolutely not under any circumstances

 

[Sanders]

Let me put it in simple terms for you

Jacobs and Jenkins >>>>> Lycett and Vardy

Geelong who have been crying our for a ruckman for years gave Vardy away for a half eaten pie and half a handful of peanuts.

I don’t think that’s true though. Jacobs and Jenkins ain’t much better. Jenkins for all the progress he made this year as a forward, remains a terrible, terrible ruckman.

 

[LiamPickering]

I would give up 8, 13, 16, 21, 2019 first for 2, 3 and 29.

1000%.

 

[hey shorty]

Why would they want to delay their rebuild?

That's why I'd throw 8, 13 and next years first at them.

Have some picks this year and add another next year. That has to be enough to tempt them to trade pick 3.

Carlton are an interesting proposition. Stuff all picks and they need them just as much. I dont want to deal with them again though.

 

[Antares]

Why would they want to delay their rebuild?

I'm just passing the word I've heard from some ITKs on this site. They've already picked up Brisbane's future first during the trade period.

One thing is for sure, future picks seem to be valued a lot less than current picks in the current market, particularly by clubs that fancy themselves. Clubs also probably lean more towards what's right in front of them, so maybe the Gold Coast see it as a case of long term investment for a better return.

 

[arrowman]

Did Kornes ask Cameron whether port wanted 2 and 3 as well?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

He did, and Cameron's reply was "%$#& Port, we're not dealing with them."

This reply mysteriously went missing from Kornes' report.

 

[Shaz2012]

That's why I'd throw 8, 13 and next years first at them.

Have some picks this year and add another next year. That has to be enough to tempt them to trade pick 3.

Carlton are an interesting proposition. Stuff all picks and they need them just as much. I dont want to deal with them again though.

I wouldn't do that for pick 3. I'd do it for Luko (2), but I'd want 29 back.

 

[jaytex]

I have become a massive doubter of Sauce. I am calling him "cooked". I think that the smart list management move would have been to get in a replacement.

BUT. I live in hope that he can prove me wrong. I am also very quietly confident that he can. We mismanaged the fitness of our whole squad this year. Although we still have Burton in charge, FFS, we have brought in Steve Saunders from North. This is an amazing get. We have the entire pre-season to prepare Sauce for one last year. Hopefully, we have half a brain next year and give ROB some games to keep Sauce as fresh as humanly possible. With an easier draw, it should be possible to give him a week off 3 or 4 times during the season. Hopefully more.

Very quietly confident that Saunders can get Tex right as well. Tex is the key, more so than Sauce.

You're on the money with the mismanaged comment. I have it on medium authority that Sauce was so sore last year he couldn't lift his arm above his head mid-week most weeks. No idea of the mechanism of injury/pain, just talk from a mate who knows him well.
Am hopeful Saunders helps in this regard, if true.

 

[Sanders]

As usual Nikki you have made a very clear and concise post on what happened.

Except it’s not what happened

 

[Red mist]

He isn't in front of any of the players Scorpus mentioned, therefore isnt in our best dozen. As I've said previously, he played as many minor round games as he did last year and we won less games.

Scorps ain’t the scroll, MM would have been top 5 picked cos of his ranging utility value every week.
It’s like Luke Brown is guaranteed inside top 10 first picked every single week. He is solid ****ing gold sir.

 

[Scorpus]

Scorps ain’t the scroll, MM would have been top 5 picked cos of his ranging utility value every week.
It’s like Luke Brown is guaranteed inside top 10 first picked every single week. He is solid ******* gold sir.

So our top 5 picked is Walker (captain), Sloane, Talia, Laird and... McGovern?

I don't think so

 

[lunacy]

I want two of them.
Otherwise we drafting and pay more later.
May as well do it now.

There is no way we will have to pay more later. They are at their highest cost right now. Look at the price of Hogan, Shiel, Neale. There is no way we would have to give up as many 1st round picks in 2-3 yrs as what we currently have to.

 

[Runnin Blue]

I’ve got a fear the AFL are going to put something together to stop the talent drain from Gold Coast.

Right just as they recruit some good SA kids.

I could 100% see the AFL & Crooked Gil doing something like that.

 

[NTRabbit]

Why would they want to delay their rebuild?

Not delay so much as spread out, because there's a practical limit to the number of list changes you can make in a single season, and they already brought in 7 new faces. I think they're probably more interested in trading one or both of their second round picks this year for future 2nd round picks, on a one for one basis.

 

[CrowInFiji]

Clubs can trade picks during the next 3 weeks ... it's not just live trading on draft day.

Yes correct, I worded poorly in my haste.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Next two - three years!

And if we don't?

 

[Shaz2012]

There is no way we will have to pay more later. They are at their highest cost right now. Look at the price of Hogan, Shiel, Neale. There is no way we would have to give up as many 1st round picks in 2-3 yrs as what we currently have to.

We are talking about picks 13 and 16 as well as an unknown 2019 1st. We are also considering 21 as essentially a 1st. If you add the points of 8, 13, 16 and 21 it is essentially the same number of points as pick 2 and 3 (slightly in our favour). But there is a higher premium to go into the top 3. I would say that adding our 1st rounder to the 4 picks we hold is not far away from being "fair" to cover any overs. Its an entirely different question as to whether we would be better off taking the players we would take at 2 and 3, versus the 5 players we would take with those picks. I think Hamish would give us the edge on going with the 5 picks personally. But at the same time, picks 2 and 3 will presumably be South Aussies with zero go home factor.

I could live with either decision.

I think it will cost us more than this to get them back. We wont be in a position to have a strong draft hand like this when we are trying to get them back. We will likely have to trade good players to do that. To me that is a much higher cost than giving up the promise of potentially good players.

 

[hey shorty]

Scorps ain’t the scroll, MM would have been top 5 picked cos of his ranging utility value every week.
It’s like Luke Brown is guaranteed inside top 10 first picked every single week. He is solid ******* gold sir.

You need to taking drugs. First we have Wabbit telling us hes top 10, now you say first 5 picked ??

He'd have been in the last 5.

 

[Red mist]

So our top 5 picked is Walker (captain), Sloane, Talia, Laird and... McGovern?

I don't think so

You don’t know so either. So back up the train fella like all knowing.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Essendon Show boating and not getting on with the deal cost them

Also nice for the dodo to get some of his own medicine...

 

[Shaz2012]

You need to taking drugs. First we have Wabbit telling us hes top 10, now you say first 5 picked ??

He'd have been in the last 5.

Unless McAdam steps up, we are going to miss Gov badly. Saying he is last 5 picked is further from the truth than saying he is first 5 picked.

 

[Red mist]

You need to taking drugs. First we have Wabbit telling us hes top 10, now you say first 5 picked ??

He'd have been in the last 5.

I take reasonable drugs for reasonable well being for which I haven’t seen much of itt.
The guy was top 5 with a bullet at we got him at 43 with an Achilles issue.
His brother just showed monster balls. We payed down early and barely squeaked. Shit.

 

[Sanders]

How much will pick 3 cost on draft night?

8+13?
8+21+Future 1st? (getting back future minor pick to make it legal)

We had an agreement to trade 11 & 17 for pick 2, to select schache in 2015. Brisbane pulled out at last minute

Schache had just had one of the greatest TAC seasons for a forward, breaking the record for most contested marks. He was a stud

And 11 + 17 was fair value then

Plug current picks into the equatio:

8+13 is well overs, but we might be prepared to do it.

8 + 21 is probably equivalent

13 + 16 + 21 is well overs, but I might even do that

Issue becomes is that 5 + 10 + 15 trumps us. And is probably enough, or close, to get 2 + 3.

 

[lunacy]

We are talking about picks 13 and 16 as well as an unknown 2019 1st. We are also considering 21 as essentially a 1st. If you add the points of 8, 13, 16 and 21 it is essentially the same number of points as pick 2 and 3 (slightly in our favour). But there is a higher premium to go into the top 3. I would say that adding our 1st rounder to the 4 picks we hold is not far away from being "fair" to cover any overs. Its an entirely different question as to whether we would be better off taking the players we would take at 2 and 3, versus the 5 players we would take with those picks. I think Hamish would give us the edge on going with the 5 picks personally. But at the same time, picks 2 and 3 will presumably be South Aussies with zero go home factor.

I could live with either decision.

I think it will cost us more than this to get them back. We wont be in a position to have a strong draft hand like this when we are trying to get them back. We will likely have to trade good players to do that. To me that is a much higher cost than giving up the promise of potentially good players.

Forget picks 2 & 3, lets just use the example of pick 3. To get our hands on pick 3 now it would probably something like 8, 13, 21 with maybe a later pick coming back.
Say GC keep pick 3 and get Rankine. Even if he becomes a star we will not have to pay that much to get him back. Particularly if he is at the end of his contract and nominates us.

Top draft picks are like cars. They lose value the moment you utilise them. Players who are taken later in the draft obviously go up in value if they become stars, but highly rated draftees (top 5) are their most expensive pre-draft.

 

[LiquidCrow]

There is no way we will have to pay more later. They are at their highest cost right now. Look at the price of Hogan, Shiel, Neale. There is no way we would have to give up as many 1st round picks in 2-3 yrs as what we currently have to.

Agree. Once picks are converted into players, then then value is determined by a player's form - just look at the stack of single figure draft picks that have left GWS for peanuts over the years. If a player like Luko or Rankine is taken by GC and wants out at the end of 2019 (homesickness) or sees out his contract in 2020, I doubt it would cost us more than a first rounder at most.