List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[Kummerspeck]

I mean Longmire refuses to play our young mid bodied midfielders as clearance players.

Top 5 clearances at the club:
1. Parker
2. Kennedy
3. Hewett
4. Florent
5. Heeney

Three of them are under 24. What exactly is it you mean by 'Longmire refuses to play our young mid bodied midfielders as clearance players'. Is it like that time you said Hannebery hadn't had games in his last few years at Sydney that were as good as his Saints games?

 

[RobbieK]

Top 5 clearances at the club:
1. Parker
2. Kennedy
3. Hewett
4. Florent
5. Heeney

Three of them are under 24. What exactly is it you mean by 'Longmire refuses to play our young mid bodied midfielders as clearance players'. Is it like that time you said Hannebery hadn't had games in his last few years at Sydney that were as good as his Saints games?

Get that Venn diagram out again...

 

[barry fu]

Now, with this thread being similar to the Brownlow as a mids only event at every turn and table thump.
May barry ask, if you will - Has anyone seen/sighted, stumbled or spoken of young Master Dyson Hilder? The SA Big Boy Backman..

fu does apologize in advance for posting this query in the midfield minefield thread.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

In Kemp we trust.

 

[RUNVS]

In Kemp we trust.

Don't trust his knee at all.

 

[Keyter]

Melb seem to have a habit of shooting them selves in the foot when they get close...Gws would Only do that deal if they knew Melb wouldn’t bid on green at 3. So the foot shooters will go wth Jackson or young..either way gws get the alternative plus green...smells way to cozy....future gws player off to Melb...?

 

[Ticky009]

Now, with this thread being similar to the Brownlow as a mids only event at every turn and table thump.
May barry ask, if you will - Has anyone seen/sighted, stumbled or spoken of young Master Dyson Hilder? The SA Big Boy Backman..

fu does apologize in advance for posting this query in the midfield minefield thread.

Search says no.

Seems interesting. Have you seen him play, Fu?

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

 

[barry fu]

Search says no.

Seems interesting. Have you seen him play, Fu?

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

This is the right place T9?

Aye T9, first thought was an Alex Keath type. Was there to see another, caught the eye. fu does like a defender.
Wonder if another has seen young Master Hilder?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Melb seem to have a habit of shooting them selves in the foot when they get close...Gws would Only do that deal if they knew Melb wouldn’t bid on green at 3. So the foot shooters will go wth Jackson or young..either way gws get the alternative plus green...smells way to cozy....future gws player off to Melb...?

If they rate Young or Jackson higher, who are we to say it's wrong? These recruiters do hours upon hours watching these kids...everyone thought Clayton Oliver was a "wrong" choice, worked out okay.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

So much focus on our first rounder.

But the real excitement comes in the 2nd round. Who could forget the great man LRT being snapped up at pick 29?

The Swans are built on 2nd rounders.

 

[big_bazza]

I like the look of Harry Schoenberg, Sam Philp and Darcy Chirgwin as potential picks in the later rounds of the draft, they all seem like they have potential to be great midfielders.

 

[anotherletdown]

I like the look of Harry Schoenberg, Sam Philp and Darcy Chirgwin as potential picks in the later rounds of the draft, they all seem like they have potential to be great midfielders.

Like Philp the most out of that bunch. Would be happy to get any of those 3 at our 3rd pick, like the look of Ruscoe maybe a little later too. Obviously hoping for one of Stephens, Rivers or Rantall to be available at our 2nd pick though... no chance really.

I’m becoming fairly confident on being able to grab decent midfield talent outside the 1st round. Wouldn’t surprise me if we throw a curveball early doors.

 

[Ticky009]

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: November update

AFL.com.au's draft guru ranks the best young footy talent in the land

www.afl.com.au

 

[RobbieK]

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: November update

AFL.com.au's draft guru ranks the best young footy talent in the land

www.afl.com.au

Reading through that it appears he thinks there is a clear top 3 and then has pretty much no idea what order the rest of the first round is going to go. He has Serong at 4th but speculates he could go as low as 12th.

 

[Crust]

I'm struggling to understand the GWS strategy here.

Assuming the target is Green, with 12(1268 points) plus 18(985) and 40(429), GWS could match (with the Academy discount) any bid, including no 1(3000 less 20% = 2400).

So GWS trades 12 and 18 for 6, thus swapping 2253 points value for 1751.
GWS then trades 6 and next year's first for 4 (2034)

Effectively GWS has traded 12, 18 and next year's first for 4. A huge price when it could have obtained Green with probably 12 and 18 alone.

If Gold Coast or Melbourne pick Green in the top three, GWS to match must use pick 4. This means GWS has paid 12, 18 and next year's first for an Academy player.

Assuming they don't, GWS then either picks Green with 4, which is madness, or someone else, Player X.

If Player X, GWS is left with 40(429), 59(158) and 60 (146) for a total of 733 points.
Therefore if Green is picked by another club, up to pick 19, GWS cannot match (even with the discount).

So, GWS needs to trade in points and if Swans pick Green at 5(1878), GWS needs 1502 points to match, with discount. It has 733 so it needs 769 more, which is pick 24 or better.
Next year GWS has no first round pick. Assuming it comes 4th, its second round is pick 33 (563), 3rd round 51(259) 4th round 69(49), and North Melbourne's round 3. The better GWS does the worse these figures are.

To put it another way, at a minimum GWS would have to trade its second and third next year to make up the points to get Green this year if Swans bid on him.

If all this happens it means GWS has used all its points this year, and its first three picks next year, for player X, Green, and North's 2020 third. If GWS has Academy players coming through next year, it will not have the points to pay for them.

So, who is Player X?

Or does it not want Green? Is there something about Green GWS knows but no one else does?

Or have I misunderstood how the system works?

 

[TheMase]

I'm struggling to understand the GWS strategy here.

Assuming the target is Green, with 12(1268 points) plus 18(985) and 40(429), GWS could match (with the Academy discount) any bid, including no 1(3000 less 20% = 2400).

So GWS trades 12 and 18 for 6, thus swapping 2253 points value for 1751.
GWS then trades 6 and next year's first for 4 (2034)

Effectively GWS has traded 12, 18 and next year's first for 4. A huge price when it could have obtained Green with probably 12 and 18 alone.

If Gold Coast or Melbourne pick Green in the top three, GWS to match must use pick 4. This means GWS has paid 12, 18 and next year's first for an Academy player.

Assuming they don't, GWS then either picks Green with 4, which is madness, or someone else, Player X.

If Player X, GWS is left with 40(429), 59(158) and 60 (146) for a total of 733 points.
Therefore if Green is picked by another club, up to pick 19, GWS cannot match (even with the discount).

So, GWS needs to trade in points and if Swans pick Green at 5(1878), GWS needs 1502 points to match, with discount. It has 733 so it needs 769 more, which is pick 24 or better.
Next year GWS has no first round pick. Assuming it comes 4th, its second round is pick 33 (563), 3rd round 51(259) 4th round 69(49), and North Melbourne's round 3. The better GWS does the worse these figures are.

To put it another way, at a minimum GWS would have to trade its second and third next year to make up the points to get Green this year if Swans bid on him.

If all this happens it means GWS has used all its points this year, and its first three picks next year, for player X, Green, and North's 2020 third. If GWS has Academy players coming through next year, it will not have the points to pay for them.

So, who is Player X?

Or does it not want Green? Is there something about Green GWS knows but no one else does?

Or have I misunderstood how the system works?

I think you’ve more or less understood it.

They don’t really have any currency to trade anything else in this year. However, assuming they do end up matching a Green bid and going into points deficit, they’ll have the opportunity to trade players next year for draft selections. This is almost a certainty given (particularly if they take Green) they will likely have a couple of young mids not getting opportunity that will seek a trade in 2020.

They could also trade back down the draft perhaps if Melbourne went Green at 3 (which I think is unlikely). Could target Fremantles 7 and 10 (not sure they would have enough currency to satisfy Fremantle for that trade however).

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Reading through that it appears he thinks there is a clear top 3 and then has pretty much no idea what order the rest of the first round is going to go. He has Serong at 4th but speculates he could go as low as 12th.

Fair assessment.

Its actually going to be a fascinating draft.

 

[barry fu]

For fu, I hope The Bloods Boffins have run the rule over young Ryan Byrnes of The Dragons.

Horse’s Neck

2 shakes of bitters
1 oz / 3 cl Bourbon
2-3 oz / 6-9 cl Ginger Ale

Ice
Lemon zest

Highball glass

barry is certain Dalrumpole has had eyes on.
Something screams Sam Mitchell like for fu about this chiselled conscript chap.

Onwards to Victory!

 

[S120]

I think you’ve more or less understood it.

They don’t really have any currency to trade anything else in this year. However, assuming they do end up matching a Green bid and going into points deficit, they’ll have the opportunity to trade players next year for draft selections. This is almost a certainty given (particularly if they take Green) they will likely have a couple of young mids not getting opportunity that will seek a trade in 2020.

They could also trade back down the draft perhaps if Melbourne went Green at 3 (which I think is unlikely). Could target Fremantles 7 and 10 (not sure they would have enough currency to satisfy Fremantle for that trade however).

It's what GWS have been doing almost since they came into the league. They've set up a cycle by which they will draft top talents at the top of the draft, develop them excellently and cash in when at least some of them inevitably request a trade home, leaving them with more top draft picks. Rinse and repeat. Given the circumstances in which they exist, they're doing it excellently.

 

[kelpie_X]

For the players I want it did and I like to be happy sometimes. This probably takes Young and Jackson off the board. There are more than enough mid options available though which is great news

The draft isn't about you though is it

 

[Keyter]

As a option what about
Syd exchanging pick 5 & 32 = 2462
For freos 7 & 22 = 2489. .??

 

[LukeParkerno1]

As a option what about
Syd exchanging pick 5 & 32 = 2462
For freos 7 & 22 = 2489. .??

Pass. The pick 22 isn't high enough.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The draft isn't about you though is it

If it means we are more likely to take a mid, I'll take it mate. Our midfield was abysmal last year

 

[Wayne Swan]

It's what GWS have been doing almost since they came into the league. They've set up a cycle by which they will draft top talents at the top of the draft, develop them excellently and cash in when at least some of them inevitably request a trade home, leaving them with more top draft picks. Rinse and repeat. Given the circumstances in which they exist, they're doing it excellently.

They've been getting two first rounders for a player and a later pick for a number of years. To their GF midfield, next year they add Cogniglio, Ward and Green! They gave away pick 11 Bonar this year for an empty chips packet, Pick 11 Caldwell and pick 14 Hately and NEAFL ball magnet Shipley can't get a game so they will all be on the trade table next year.

The start up largesse GWS received may finally be nearing it's end given they are now trading high 2020 picks, but it will leave them with a strong list for the next 6-7 years before they start to slip. So they've probably milked it successfully for a decade at the top.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

They've been getting two first rounders for a player and a later pick for a number of years. To their GF midfield, next year they add Cogniglio, Ward and Green! They gave away pick 11 Bonar this year for an empty chips packet, Pick 11 Caldwell and pick 14 Hately and NEAFL ball magnet Shipley can't get a game so they will all be on the trade table next year.

The start up largesse GWS received may finally be nearing it's end given they are now trading high 2020 picks, but it will leave them with a strong list for the next 6-7 years before they start to slip. So they've probably milked it successfully for a decade at the top.

Caldwell should play next year you'd assume otherwise they won't keep him