Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[BigFrizz36]

Tippa a chance? OOC but wouldn't expect him to leave Essendon.

His form has been very inconsistent this year though...kicked 7 in one game and can look a million bucks, but can also go completely missing.

Is a strong 'small' forward though who is very quick. We've all seen him lay big chase down tackles and seems like a pretty good kick at goal in general play and via set shots.

On his disclosed form this year (zero goals in losses and a few in wins) he would have had a very tough season. In fact had he have been goalless in 10 games (10 losses) as a small forward for us he would have been dropped and been a perennial whipping boy.

 

[gbatman]

People bagging our recruiting over the last few years under SOS have no idea. There is no such thing as perfect recruiting. If SOS butchered top 30 picks like Hawthorn did in their rebuild leading up to their dynasty then we would be all calling for his head. Hawthorn just happened to have a lot of top 30 picks and had enough hits and some really big hits to lay out their foundations.

We probably have more hits than most. If you don't understand why we are crap then you really don't understand AFL footy and player development timeframes.

SOS' oldest draftees are only 21 which makes them generally just under the age of when most AFL players begin to have an impact. The 22-30 year olds who are the ones we need to be a good side are only on our list because of the couple of hits in 10 years of recruiting the previous regimes had and there are a few 22-24 year olds who have come from other clubs who are actually going alright.

Yes we lack midfielders and we lack small forwards. That's not from bad recruiting, it's because our focus has been on the backline which is pretty good and key forwards and midfielders. We haven't finished building the midfield. We haven't got to the point where we spend premium picks on small forwards.

If you follow the good clubs who win flags and have sustained success you will see their build their sides the same way. Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong etc they all solidified their talls, backline and midfield first and acquired small forwards last. There are clear reasons for doing it this way, we haven't got to the point where we focus on small forwards and I don't think this draft should be the one where we really focus on them either as the midfield still needs work and we should get in at least 1 good mid.

The rebuild is far from complete. We are lucky we have got our talls and our tall depth all set in place. We probably have 3/4 of our midfield in place and probably have some smaller defenders to add in a couple of years when that comes up. All we need to do in the next two drafts is add one or two premium quality elite midfielders and two really good small forwards and maturity into the 18-21 year olds SOS has accumulated and we will start winning a lot of games.

You can blame the coaching or the recruiting all you want but the fact is we haven't had the time to recruit all the players we need and we haven't had the time for these players we have been recruiting to mature. It will happen when it happens and that will be in the next 1-3 years.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Id be putting alot of time into getting papley.

 

[cfc4life]

Anyone who's preferring Martin to Papley would want to change their mind right about now.
Absolute gun. A must have at the top of our shopping list.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

Id be putting alot of time into getting papley.

Have said the same and was coming here to say it again. Exactly what we need

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

We better hope Adelaide don’t win a final otherwise we are going to have to give up something else significant to go with their pick if he keeps this form up.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Very injury prone as well but can play

Fully Understand going down that track again, we've been burnt before but i think the kid is a top liner worth taking the chance on, personally i don't think he would entertain coming across to play for us unfortunately...

 

[DangerousD]

Mr Denham suggested that Brad Hill wants to come back to Victoria.
Now if one player fits our needs...................Hill wouldn't be far off.

Can't trust Denham, but a W.A. player......Carlton.....?????

Trade for Brad, get Stephan as a FA, are they coming with Ross or to get away from him?

Brad Hill is a great player.

 

[DangerousD]

Has been poor at Freo and had a few off-field issues. Also question why he wants to leave his home state and his brother to go back to VIC?

Poor? He's a best and fairest winner at Fremantle.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Mr Denham suggested that Brad Hill wants to come back to Victoria.
Now if one player fits our needs...................Hill wouldn't be far off.

Can't trust Denham, but a W.A. player......Carlton.....?????

Denham not much chop, really poor player opinions
nothing against them but as far as the Hills, Stephen a massive no (injuries)"& Brad inconsistent can put the money towards a top liner/match winning player.., Lyon would want 2 firsts rounders NO WAY!

 

[AB_Blue]

Denham not much chop, really poor player opinions
nothing against them but as far as the Hills, Stephen a massive no (injuries)"& Brad inconsistent can put the money towards a top liner/match winning player.., Lyon would want 2 firsts rounders NO WAY!

Neroli Medows went with it as well. Even added Hill asked for a trade to Hawthorn last year


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[Garters]

Id be putting alot of time into getting papley.

He looked very good tonight. Albeit only got to watch the first half

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Anyone who's preferring Martin to Papley would want to change their mind right about now.
Absolute gun. A must have at the top of our shopping list.

Why cant we have both? They don't play the same position.

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

Was thinking about the age demographics, composition and and trajectory of our list.

We all know players should take a step up after 60-80 games and should be in their prime after 120-150 or so. So I decided to nerd out and do some analysis of AA teams over the last decade.

Overall

• The average AA player is 25.7 years old when selected and had played 139 games prior to his AA season.
• Age split: Under 24yo (26%), 24-28yo (56%), Over 28yo (18%)
• Experience split: Under 100 games (30%), 100-200 (53%), 200+ (16%)

Of course every player progresses differently, and this is looking at AA players (not the whole league output) but this provides some general evidence that elite players generally are at their peak in the 24-28 range and are quite experienced.

By position

View attachment 696135

Green means on the young/inexperienced end, red means older/more experienced. ​

• Overall, KPP are a little older when selected and a little less experienced. OMG, I'TS ALMOST AS IF TALLS TAKE LONGER. WHO KNEW?!?!
• Backline generally older than forwardline
• Centres are noticeably older than wingers. Easier to play inside when you are older and stronger (Cripps is a FREAK!)

Maiden selections

• Looking at players the first time they are picked, they are on average 24.5yo and have played avg of 106 matches prior to their first AA season.
• Age order (oldest to youngest) KPP > pockets > flankers > mids

Conclusion (TL;DR)

Most players need ~6-8 seasons before hitting their peak.

I haven't done any hard analysis of Carlton, but we know our list (especially our best 22) is very young. We have a lot of talent in the 19-22 age bracket. We should not expect our elite prospects to turn into elite performers for at least a couple more years (starting with 2015 crop).

Notes:

• I came up with the 24-28yo and 120-150 matches estimates prior to running the numbers, just going off common wisdom. It proved to be surprisingly accurate
• I included interchange players in the overall stats, but ignored them for positional analysis as CBF re-classifying them
• Maiden selections - some positions (CHF, RR, Ro) had little data, so no commentary on those
• I think I can feel a 'List within a List 2.0' coming on. Give me a little time and I will put some together
• Median (vs avg) would have been better, but didn't bother. Sorry.

Really nice analysis

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I feel SOS will do another ‘Stocker’ Pick trade with next year’s first round pick.

I see our list challenges as:

1. Replacing Simpson, Murphy and Thomas. So yes extra midfield and run. Our VFL and injured in this space are Kennedy, Lang, Garlett, Schumacher, Polson and Stocker. One has to 24-27 yo and be easily next best after Cripps.
2. A solid ruckman or 2. Kreuzer is great when he is on the park but I fear is past his best, TDK is probably 2 years away. Lobbe and Phillips are pedestrian.
3. Small defender. Docherty back is a start but he plays a sweeper rather than a beat his man role. Newman is slow but serviceable.
4. Small forward. We have to start again we have none. Richmond’s 5th best (Butler) would be a start, Papley in less than a heartbeat too ... have to find one in the ND or RD too.

Development and another pre-season into Dow, Fisher, Samo, O’Brien, Walsh, Stocker, Cuningham, JSOS, Schumacher, Kennedy ...

 

[Juddernaut08]

People bagging our recruiting over the last few years under SOS have no idea. There is no such thing as perfect recruiting. If SOS butchered top 30 picks like Hawthorn did in their rebuild leading up to their dynasty then we would be all calling for his head. Hawthorn just happened to have a lot of top 30 picks and had enough hits and some really big hits to lay out their foundations.

We probably have more hits than most. If you don't understand why we are crap then you really don't understand AFL footy and player development timeframes.

SOS' oldest draftees are only 21 which makes them generally just under the age of when most AFL players begin to have an impact. The 22-30 year olds who are the ones we need to be a good side are only on our list because of the couple of hits in 10 years of recruiting the previous regimes had and there are a few 22-24 year olds who have come from other clubs who are actually going alright.

Yes we lack midfielders and we lack small forwards. That's not from bad recruiting, it's because our focus has been on the backline which is pretty good and key forwards and midfielders. We haven't finished building the midfield. We haven't got to the point where we spend premium picks on small forwards.

If you follow the good clubs who win flags and have sustained success you will see their build their sides the same way. Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong etc they all solidified their talls, backline and midfield first and acquired small forwards last. There are clear reasons for doing it this way, we haven't got to the point where we focus on small forwards and I don't think this draft should be the one where we really focus on them either as the midfield still needs work and we should get in at least 1 good mid.

The rebuild is far from complete. We are lucky we have got our talls and our tall depth all set in place. We probably have 3/4 of our midfield in place and probably have some smaller defenders to add in a couple of years when that comes up. All we need to do in the next two drafts is add one or two premium quality elite midfielders and two really good small forwards and maturity into the 18-21 year olds SOS has accumulated and we will start winning a lot of games.

You can blame the coaching or the recruiting all you want but the fact is we haven't had the time to recruit all the players we need and we haven't had the time for these players we have been recruiting to mature. It will happen when it happens and that will be in the next 1-3 years.

Nah. You're correct about the list build order to date, but your method from there is illogical.

If we wait another year or two to then draft small forwards, how does that matchup with our timeline at all?

We should be aiming to trade for one this offseason. The talls will be ready next year. The SPS Fisher year will take a leap in year 3 ala Cunners this year.

Our midfield will improve naturally, we cant ignore the forwardline any longer.

 

[JustaBattler]

The list build was never goingg to be complete and finished in 3 years because it wasn't a minor rebuild it was a total build from ground up. What we have in place now is a strong foundation and most of the support infrastructure in place to finish over the next couple of years. We aren't in final fit -out stage yet - because you can only trade in so many players and draft so many players in set time intervals - these are just facts.

#1: Nothing gets rebuilt all at the same time- because it is impossible. You have to start with foundations and build on them. No house or building or business or anything is built so that you have a bit of foundation a bit of wall and a bit of roof - that isn't how one goes about building anything except a short term makeover leading to nothing - except collapse.

#2: Any building process will see some work having to be redone because every act of making also involves numerous risks which despite best endeavours - inevitably impact on the process. materials might come under spec - players might get injured or not be what was expected them to be or they go off the rails...so mistakes are part of every process that is just a fact.

#3: You judge the architect/builder/process based on expected results including an expected level of mistakes or risk and expected levels of performance based on real world experience / data gathered from real world evidence - in this case ferrisb type reminders that it takes time is timely.

The worst 'advice' or criticism is to pick on some aspects of a process or build that isn't there and point to failure - when in fact that part hasn't really been addressed properly or expected results from that part didn't work for some reason or another- what you do is fix the issues.

IF we agree that : Charlie/Weitering/Harry/Dow/SPS/Walsh etc are examples of very good building THEN we have to say that what is missing or needs attention can also be successfully addressed - given time and resources.

I'd be worried if the foundations were looking poor - instead of being concerned about finishing details missing - ahead of their time.

Still continue to believe that we are (only) Docherty + 2 developed mids + a small forward short of being ultra competitive as in finals quality and capability. My only 'concern' is being able to replace Simpson and Thomas - easier said than done in just one year.

That is a fantastic outcome after 3 years rebuild and all the bad luck with injury the side has copped.

The 'test' for SOS and Co will be their ability to actually 'score' more of what is required at this stage of the build OR to put it another way - in this year's trade period and then to continue improving what will be a much more balanced list going forward and therefore ( in theory) much easier to maintain and improve upon.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

The AFL app is reporting that Carlton are interested in Sydney ruckman Darcy Cameron.

They report that he has a friendship with Cripps (presumably from his WA squad days) and Newman.

23 years old, 2.05m, OOC, runner up B&F of the NEAFL comp last year.

Fourth rounder should do it

 

[BluStreak]

If Doc comes back then for me I see stocker replacing simpson. Thomas is another thing, not so sure we can replace him as quickly.

 

[juzz88]

Surely Thomas plays another season? He's looked good again this year imo.

Would have thought he might even be a chance to play two more seasons and hit 300 games. He can play just about anywhere, so Doc and say Williamson/Stocker taking his spot shouldn't be an issue.

I'd hate to lose him so soon.

 

[BluStreak]

I

Surely Thomas plays another season? He's looked good again this year imo.

Would have thought he might even be a chance to play two more seasons and hit 300 games. He can play just about anywhere, so Doc and say Williamson/Stocker taking his spot shouldn't be an issue.

I'd hate to lose him so soon.

I think that Thomas will play on. Who on our current roster plays like him? or could

 

[Soapy V]

Surely Thomas plays another season? He's looked good again this year imo.

Would have thought he might even be a chance to play two more seasons and hit 300 games. He can play just about anywhere, so Doc and say Williamson/Stocker taking his spot shouldn't be an issue.

I'd hate to lose him so soon.

Time to move on I reckon. 33 next year

Gut feel is he is gone and Simpson will retire. Murphy will play another year. Still have Kruezer Curnow Jones & Casboult as 29 or over.

Get some 25 year olds in and another year of maturity (plus a new coach) it's time

 

[Doro]

Surely Thomas plays another season? He's looked good again this year imo.

Would have thought he might even be a chance to play two more seasons and hit 300 games. He can play just about anywhere, so Doc and say Williamson/Stocker taking his spot shouldn't be an issue.

I'd hate to lose him so soon.

It's great how well he's turned the perception of his Carlton career around Daisy. Become an important player for us.

 

[juzz88]

Time to move on I reckon.

Gut feel is he is gone and Simpson will retire. Murphy will play another year. Still have Kruezer Curnow Jones & Casboult as 29 or over.

Get some 25 year olds in and another year of maturity (plus a new coach) it's time

You're breaking my heart Soapy.

 

[Soapy V]

You're breaking my heart Soapy.

Everyone finishes at some stage. He will be 33.

I'm hoping Cripps Docherty Weiteirng Plowman Marchbank Charlie SPS Fisher Jack McGovern even Walsh become the real leaders of the side. It's time for them to lead this side to finals and beyond

Most people think we will make around 8 changes this year. Go through our list and try and identify who and who are out of contract. Makes it fairly clear to me