Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

[Pommie Docker]

Do you know what I find absolutely hilarious, club supporters on here who think they will get Hill for a pick in the 10-20s while at least 3 Melbourne clubs are falling over themselves trying to get him to ask to go to them. From all accounts, Dogs, Melbourne and St Kilda are offering 800k a year + to get him there, and these muppets think a top 10 pick is too much to pay (its one of the three in particular).

At least if we let Hill go, I'm 99% sure we ream whoever we send him to.

Just shows how overrated picks are. Long term picks can be great but the reality is even the best players take at least 2/3 years to come on. If you look back at the Weller trade Gold Coast got slammed for it but the reality is that Brayshaw has only just started playing towards a top level, there has to be some discounted immediate value to picks.

 

[basashi]

Just shows how overrated picks are. Long term picks can be great but the reality is even the best players take at least 2/3 years to come on. If you look back at the Weller trade Gold Coast got slammed for it but the reality is that Brayshaw has only just started playing towards a top level, there has to be some discounted immediate value to picks.

Clubs are already doing this but i am not sure they are doing it well. You need to risk adjust all your drafts and trades. I think Freo do not do this well.

Players that come in with an injury cloud, a behaviour cloud.... we need to be knocking 20 - 30% or so off our estimation of the guy. We have had a few where it looks like they are valuing players at a best case scenario level and then getting upset when reality strikes.

 

[Taylor]

Just shows how overrated picks are. Long term picks can be great but the reality is even the best players take at least 2/3 years to come on. If you look back at the Weller trade Gold Coast got slammed for it but the reality is that Brayshaw has only just started playing towards a top level, there has to be some discounted immediate value to picks.

If you're able to swap a pick for a player with over 100 game at AFL level you know exactly what you're getting. If Brayshaw was six foot seven he would still be developing too. He'd still be a maybe surrounded by Ifs.

If Melbourne do secure Bradley Hill's nomination as well as Langdon's they would be wise to offer both their first two picks in a swap for them. They get two players they know will play round one and all year, one of them elite, both of them elite runners and the younger one with some improvement left in him.

 

[Freoforever86]

If you're able to swap a pick for a player with over 100 game at AFL level you know exactly what you're getting. If Brayshaw was six foot seven he would still be developing too. He'd still be a maybe surrounded by Ifs.

If Melbourne do secure Bradley Hill's nomination as well as Langdon's they would be wise to offer both their first two picks in a swap for them. They get two players they know will play round one and all year, one of them elite, both of them elite runners and the younger one with some improvement left in him.

Happy days for both clubs there.
Going to the draft and grabbing
Anderson
Ash/Stephens/Roberston
Taylor
Henry

Nice..

 

[Wizard]

Potential moneyball trade target: Cedric Cox

Lions have McCluggage and Robinson on their wings so he's stuck behind two handy players.

Contracted for one more year but worth a look in I hope. At 22, should be able to immediately slot onto wing after we lose Langdon. i hope we are at least asking the question

I need to call this out because it is annoying me how often i see it around here lately.

"Moneyball" as everyone likes to refer to is analytically based, its not a system where you just take a guy at another club thats third or fourth in line for a role that has two or three elite players ahead of him.
Its based on statistics and trends. Whats his running numbers? What are his average yards gained numbers? What level of possessions is he getting?
This is where the Moneyball stuff is relevant.

Cox for example is averaging 18.7 possessions per game and 0.5 goals per game in the NEAFL, hardly setting the world on fire. His AFL numbers are clearly worse, his highest possession count in his 12 games is 18 and hes kicked a grand total of 3 goals.

Now his other other key metrics may be great (i.e. pressure acts etc) however the loose and uninformed use f the term Moneyball is extremely irritating.

 

[Taylor]

Happy days for both clubs there.
Going to the draft and grabbing
Anderson
Ash/Stephens/Roberston
Taylor
Henry

Nice..

I'd still feel like we got burned on Brad Hill.

We would have Pick #2, #7, #20 (912 points), #25 (756 points).
Let's assume the bid on Henry comes after our first but before our second. We have 1668 points in the second round.

A Henry bid would cost:
Pick #8 (1551) - 1241 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #41
Pick #9 (1469) - 1175 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #37
Pick #10 (1395) - 1116 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #34
Pick #11 (1329) - 1063 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #32
Pick #12 (1268) - 1014 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #29
Pick #13 (1212) - 970 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #28 (and maybe #72)
Pick #14 (1161) - 929 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #26
Pick #15 (1112) - 890 after discount - #20 is used and returns pick #72
Pick #16 (1067) - 854 after discount - #20 is used and returns pick #69

I kinda think it would be worth it for us to trade #2 to GWS for their pick #12 and #14 (and #15 if they lose Coniglio). It's 1000 more points to us but it's them buying a #2 pick for 1000 points and they still get their academy player within the next few picks.

 

[Freoforever86]

I'd still feel like we got burned on Brad Hill.

We would have Pick #2, #7, #20 (912 points), #25 (756 points).
Let's assume the bid on Henry comes after our first but before our second. We have 1668 points in the second round.

A Henry bid would cost:
Pick #8 (1551) - 1241 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #41
Pick #9 (1469) - 1175 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #37
Pick #10 (1395) - 1116 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #34
Pick #11 (1329) - 1063 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #32
Pick #12 (1268) - 1014 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #29
Pick #13 (1212) - 970 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #28 (and maybe #72)
Pick #14 (1161) - 929 after discount - Both #20 and #25 are used, returning pick #26
Pick #15 (1112) - 890 after discount - #20 is used and returns pick #72
Pick #16 (1067) - 854 after discount - #20 is used and returns pick #69

I kinda think it would be worth it for us to trade #2 to GWS for their pick #12 and #14 (and #15 if they lose Coniglio). It's 1000 more points to us but it's them buying a #2 pick for 1000 points and they still get their academy player within the next few picks.

Yeah I get the down grade to more picks, I just feel that if we had picks 2 and our own (5/6/7/8 what ever it ends up) go to the draft with them instead. Get the highest quality talent in. From all reports, the draft talent fades quickly.

 

[Yeti]

If we lose Langdon and Hill it will be an unmitigated disaster that will see us out finals for the next 3 years unless they are replaced with best 22 level players, which draftees are not.

Sam Walsh is unique in that he has become a teams 3rd best midfielder in his firsr year.

That almost never happens.

Losing our outside run will be a disaster, esoecially if it is just for draft picks. B Hill should be held to his contract.

 

[Taylor]

Yeah I get the down grade to more picks, I just feel that if we had picks 2 and our own (5/6/7/8 what ever it ends up) go to the draft with them instead. Get the highest quality talent in. From all reports, the draft talent fades quickly.

And pick #2, #7 and Henry at #16 is a good haul.

 

[Sweetback]

Hopefully he’s backtracking coz there’s a chance of coming to us this year.

I for one would embrace our backpedaling elite midfield player.

 

[Rion]

If we lose Langdon and Hill it will be an unmitigated disaster that will see us out finals for the next 3 years unless they are replaced with best 22 level players, which draftees are not.

Sam Walsh is unique in that he has become a teams 3rd best midfielder in his firsr year.

That almost never happens.

Losing our outside run will be a disaster, esoecially if it is just for draft picks. B Hill should be held to his contract.

I mostly agree but if they want to go there isn't much we can do about it. You could keep Hill another year but I don't think we're winning the premiership next year regardless so if we get a decent offer it might just be better to part ways and recruit another talented youngster.

A rebuilding team can never have enough high quality young talent and atm we're lacking a bit imo.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

I am more inclined to hold a pick that could potentially get us Jackson, Taylor or Rivers (not against interstate options either, just noting the range the WA players I like may be rated).

I think we are still in rebuild mode and if we need some mature bodies for transition of the list purposes get them late, and on short contracts.

It's more about Henry.
If you are negotiating a trade (for anyone) and a mid-to-late 1st or early 2nd is offered (whether in part or full for the trade), and we then take that offer, then that pick will likely be absorbed in the points cost for matching a bid on Henry.
So looking ahead at having to match a bid for Henry we are better off not having any picks immediately after we guesstimate where he will be bid on.
So instead of that mid-to-late first, we could get multiple later round picks or a player. I think we would be better looking for an establiahed player worth a teens pick rather than, say, 2 or 3 3rd rounders.

 

[malpaso]

Given our recent strategy of bringing mates and bros together. I'd expect Angus Brayshaw to be part of any Hill & Langdon deals done with Melbourne. That's just a no-brainer to me. Ready to go player that slots in Round 1.
We can't just bring in kids for next year, we are already one of the youngest sides going around and will get smashed along with Fyfe getting tagged out of every game..

 

[free at last]

I'd be so happy if we picked Luke Jackson-kid has the makings of being a jet,competes in the ruck & then becomes another midfielder around the ground.

 

[wild side]

Yeah and Fyfe is getting battered from pillar to post. He'll be lucky to play like this till he's Mundy's age.
Angus at least is tough, and not stupid.
We need a bit more intelligence in our team.
Too many morons, with good physiques

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

I think it is more telling that Twoomey didn't have him in his top 25 players post championships whilst a guy like Taheny was there. I'm confident that either Liam Henry and/or Deven Robertson will go before Sharp. Even if you were going pure talent over the risk of poor application, I feel Elijah Taylor would get a go first given he has only been in the system a short while and so there is the greater potential to get himself sorted out.

Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: Post U18 Champs

AFL.com.au's draft guru ranks the young talent in the wake of the U18 Champs

m.afl.com.au

What's the history of poor application regards Sharp? Mindful too that Twomey this time last year had not rated Jordan Clark, and not many here had either until his games in the finals.

 

[rgauci]

Yeah and Fyfe is getting battered from pillar to post. He'll be lucky to play like this till he's Mundy's age.
Angus at least is tough, and not stupid.
We need a bit more intelligence in our team.
Too many morons, with good physiques

We don’t have enough 6’1-6’4 multidimensional players. Our shorts get exposed for height, our taller guys get exposed for pace. Too many short people in the 22.

We could do with another 3-4 Logue type athletic players. We don’t win our fair share of 1 on 1s.

 

[Halways]

We don’t have enough 6’1-6’4 multidimensional players. Our shorts get exposed for height, our taller guys get exposed for pace. Too many short people in the 22.

We could do with another 3-4 Logue type athletic players. We don’t win our fair share of 1 on 1s.

Like a Will Day

 

[Bicco]

Hard to keep up with this board. Do we have no good players coming through apart from Brayshaw, or do we have too many coming through and are going to have contract issues in a couple of years?

Was it the Drum or Connelly times when we paid over the cap but were bottom of the ladder?

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

And pick #2, #7 and Henry at #16 is a good haul.

Yes it is and gives flexibility as to trading and drafting. For me regards Freo's needs, beyond Rowell and Young who would suit us nicely for pick 2, the next 5-6 are much of a muchness and would leave alone. Robertson Henry and Jackson likely picks come into play at or after about 9, 11, and 16 respectively. Sharp's rating will either increase or decrease depending on the next 6-7 weeks on the field.

 

[MadMundy]

The main question is though if we end up trading away both Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, who realistically do we trade in or just slot on the wing with our current list? Heard people on here saying Hughes could be a decent bodied winger, same with Duman. Interested to hear what others think.

 

[Freoforever86]

The main question is though if we end up trading away both Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, who realistically do we trade in or just slot on the wing with our current list? Heard people on here saying Hughes could be a decent bodied winger, same with Duman. Interested to hear what others think.

Hopefully draft a half back or throw Carter in, then move Blakely to a wing.
He wouldn’t have the tank like Langdon and Hill tho

 

[Van_Dyke]

Someone like Giro would probably have the tank for it. And in a dream, a fit again SHill who sticks around

 

[Jake_Pizzuto]

Hopefully draft a half back or throw Carter in, then move Blakely to a wing.
He wouldn’t have the tank like Langdon and Hill tho

Blakely has the fitness but not the line-breaking speed. I would suggest Freo won't be trading Hill unless we know someone like Bolton or Brayshaw will be coming back our way. Worst case scenario is two players such as Tucker, Bewley or Carter take up the wings

 

[Walkingwounded]

The main question is though if we end up trading away both Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, who realistically do we trade in or just slot on the wing with our current list? Heard people on here saying Hughes could be a decent bodied winger, same with Duman. Interested to hear what others think.

Hughes kicking is at Langdon levels.. Duman would need to learn to take the game on more.

If Carter had a bigger tank he might be an option.

I suspect who we gain in trade period will govern our draft pick selections.