List Mgmt. 2021 NAB National AFL Draft

[Lore]

Scuse the intrusion folks. Thought you might like to have this resource in your thread

 

[jonbe54]

You still invest in it though, just even to do your part in contributing more multicultural players to the league. Even if you don't have access to the top level ones.

Which is exactly what the AFL counts on.

 

[Moore of the Same]

You still invest in it though, just even to do your part in contributing more multicultural players to the league. Even if you don't have access to the top level ones.

100%. It still sh*ts on the idea of equality amongst clubs though.

 

[TradeDraft]

You still invest in it though, just even to do your part in contributing more multicultural players to the league. Even if you don't have access to the top level ones.

True though won't have the Same Amount of Investment like teams use to as the Return is not as good.

Unless Teams try and Hide the Players

 

[loki04]

6 key forwards in Ed’s top 20. Looks like we’ll have access to one almost regardless of where we finish!

Would love to orchestrate Lemmey and Keeler double.

Would require a savy GW trade period though. Would be nice to try trade our 2023 first into a 2022 first top 5-10.

 

[partypie]

Figured I might as well flick this over here as well, considering it took me a while to throw it together...

(originally posted on Collingwood 2021 Trade / FA thread)

Hmm might be time to re-do the pick adjustments to see where this trade leaves us, assuming that we'll go in with 6 list posts open as we have now (points in brackets).

Our current picks are as follows:

36 (502), 38 (465), 40 (429), 46 (331), 48 (302), 55 (207), 58 (170), 78 (0), 79 (0)

This leaves us with 2,236 points using 6 picks (covers pick 2 bid) and 2,406 points using 7 picks (covers pick 1 bid but requires another senior list spot to be opened, or two of our picks to be consolidated into a single pick with the same points value in another trade).

Assuming North goes with JHF at pick 1 and GWS bids on Darcy at pick 2 then our picks will be adjusted accordingly:

36 + 1 - 1 = 36 (502)
38 + 1 - 1 = 38 (465)
40 + 1 - 1 = 40 (429)
46 + 1 - 4 = 43 (378)
48 + 1 - 4 = 45 (347)
55 + 1 - 5 = 51 (259)
58 + 1 - 5 = 54 (220)
78 + 2 - 5 = 75 (0)
79 + 2 - 5 = 76 (0)

The different bid scenarios from there are as follows.

Daicos bid at pick 3 (1,787 points required to match)

We will need picks 36 (502) + 38 (465) + 40 (429) + 43 (378) + 45 (347) = 2,121 points to match the bid and will get 2,121 - 1787 = 334 points (pick 46) back in return.

All of our remaining picks after that will move up 3 spots, so they would end up being 46 (returned from bid match), 48, 51, 72, 73.

Daicos bid at pick 4 (1,627 points required to match)

We will need picks 36 (502) + 38 (465) + 40 (429) + 43 (378) = 1,774 points to match the bid and will get 1,774 - 1627 = 147 points (pick 60) back in return.

After this our remaining picks (45, 51, 54, 75, 76) would end up being being adjusted to 42, 48, 51, 60 (returned from bid match), 73, 74.

Conclusion

It seems that GW's overall plan has now been almost fully realised, with us having effectively covered any bid on Daicos, as well as being in a fairly strong position to trade back into earlier picks in this year's draft before day 2 commences if a bid on Daicos comes in where it looks like we might be expecting it to come.

We have a pretty strong hand overall now with what are effectively 6 x 3rd round picks to work with, including two potentially fairly valuable ones from the Hawks and (possibly) Tigers.

Can't do much at this point but sit back and applaud GW for conceiving the plan and then executing was has been a fairly complex series of trades to get us to where we are now.

 

[sr36]

100%. It still sh*ts on the idea of equality amongst clubs though.

It's not even the expansion teams who benefit the most. It's Brisbane and Sydney, as they get father sons and academy kids.

 

[Scodog10]

don't tell Scodog this because he reckons Dib is no good, lol

Like JOELY posted it more reinforces what I think of him as a prospect. I can also confirm I’ve seen him live. For more context the only guy projected to be on our list in 2022 that I think is “no good” is Madgen. Everyone else has a redeeming AFL trait that I can use to justify being on the list. Madgen’s have to be intangible because **** knows what else he offers…

 

[Jen2310]

It's not even the expansion teams who benefit the most. It's Brisbane and Sydney, as they get father sons and academy kids.

More Sydney. Brisbane's academy kids tend to be late picks, nothing in the first round in recent times.

 

[Curto]

Like JOELY posted it more reinforces what I think of him as a prospect. I can also confirm I’ve seen him live. For more context the only guy projected to be on our list in 2022 that I think is “no good” is Madgen. Everyone else has a redeeming AFL trait that I can use to justify being on the list. Madgen’s have to be intangible because fu** knows what else he offers…

Except that he is 100% committed to getting the best out of himself .. 100% heart ...ala Maxwell, Gayfer, red head dude.., 90 PP...oh yeah Kerrison .. he is all of those. I imagine very coachabke ... give hin a task and you have faith.

Sure he is an ugly footballer, but commits and punches and (my biggest criticusm), bites off more than he can chew. But will always prefer him to Sier like types.

Kick blokes like that out of your club at your peril.

 

[Jen2310]

Lets go through a points lesson shall we.

In the trade period Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs were trading in a different currency to every other club. While everyone else was trading to get a good pick to get a good player, Collingwood and the Bulldogs were trading good picks for later picks ... so they could get a good player.


What?
Every draft pick has a points value, on a sliding scale from 3000 points for pick one down to zero for pick 75 and beyond.
Why? Because clubs have priority access to certain players and the points system is the method of fairly getting them to those clubs.

Here’s how it works.
If a draft prospect’s dad played a certain number of games for an AFL club or state league, that club can gain priority access to that player as a father-son selection.
Then there are players who fall into the Next Generation Academies that clubs also have priority access to within certain allocated zones. These are players of Indigenous and multicultural backgrounds who are under-represented in the AFL.
The points system is how you get these priority players into clubs.
We’ll stick to father-sons for now and see how draft night might play out based on the draft order we have right now.

There are two elite father-son prospects this year. One is Nick Daicos. He is the son of Peter, Collingwood’s most artful player. Nick is a top five talent. The other is Sam Darcy, son of Luke, the Bulldogs ruckman and commentator. Sam is as tall as a point post and about as wide. He is also a top five talent. Daicos and Darcy will end up at Collingwood and the Bulldogs, respectively.


Here is a scenario. This gets a bit complicated, but it’s the AFL, what did you expect, simplicity? We’ll do our best.
Pick 1. North Melbourne calls out Jason Horne-Francis. They don’t call out either Darcy or Daicos. They go with the kid they rate highest.
Pick 2. GWS. The Giants call out Darcy because he is the size and style of player they desperately want.

What happens next? The Bulldogs say, “Nah, he’s ours, we will match the GWS bid.”
Pick two is worth 2517 points. Clubs get a 20 per cent discount for their academy or father-son players, so the Bulldogs need 2013 points to match the GWS bid.
Right now the Bulldogs have picks 23, 43, 44, 45, 52 and 93. As it stands under this scenario the Dogs would need to use their first five picks to have enough points to cover a bid at pick two.
So, what happens? Those five Bulldogs draft picks come out of the draft and every other club’s draft picks shuffle forward, Darcy pulls on a Bulldogs jumper, shakes the coach’s hand and says, “I can’t wait to get into it.” His dad says, “I just love the way he goes about it.”
GWS then gets to try again. Pick three. They call out Mac Andrew. He is tied to Melbourne’s Next Generation Academy.



Can the Demons match this bid? No, they can’t. Last year they could but the AFL changed the rules, so clubs can only match a bid for a Next Generation player if that bid comes after the first 20 picks.
Pick 4. Gold Coast call out Daicos. Collingwood breathlessly matches the bid.
Because Darcy has already been drafted and the Bulldogs picks came out of the draft, Collingwood’s draft picks have shuffled forward several spots. Pick four is worth 2034 points and Collingwood get the 20 per cent discount, so that brings it down to 1628 points the Magpies need to match the bid. That equates to three of their draft picks (27, 36 and 46).
Those three picks come out of the draft, everyone else’s picks shuffle forward, the draft carries on. Collingwood welcome another Daicos.

Scenario two.
At pick two, GWS call out Daicos’ name. The Magpies still get their father-son, but their first five picks are wiped out in the same way as the Bulldogs in scenario one.
The Bulldogs’ picks in this scenario then shuffle forward in the same way Collingwood’s did, and the Dogs only need three or four of their picks, and not five, to match the bid for Darcy. So, they are left with one or maybe two third-round draft picks.
What do they do both about it?
They trade picks.

Why? Because several later picks can add up to more points than one early pick. The thinking is, trade your early pick for a few later ones and hopefully have something left over you can still use.
Hence, in the trade period the Bulldogs traded pick 17 (worth 1025 points) and got back picks 23, 44, 45 and ended up 500 points better off.
But there’s a catch. You also have to have enough spots on your list for all the picks you take to the draft. So, you can’t warehouse 10 draft picks to cover points if you only have a maximum of three places available on your playing list.
What happens now? The Dogs and Magpies, in particular, will trade draft picks between now and draft night. Both will probably trade their current first draft picks.
The Dogs trade pick 23 for a couple of draft picks and maybe a future pick. They will need to be watchful of how many list sports they have available.

Collingwood will most likely trade pick 27 on or before draft night for a future draft pick. Why? They will probably have enough points to cover a bid for Daicos without needing to use pick 27, so why risk seeing a valuable high pick wash away on a bid for Daicos if they have other picks that can cover the bid? They then have the choice of trading that new future pick back into this draft once they have brought Daicos in. Or they just hang onto it and use it next year.

All you need to know about the AFL draft points system

There are two elite father-son prospects this year, Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy. Here’s how the points system will deliver them to their clubs on draft night.

www.theage.com.au

 

[sr36]

More Sydney. Brisbane's academy kids tend to be late picks, nothing in the first round in recent times.

Having access to Andrews and Hipwood would sort out our kpp issues pretty quickly.

 

[jonbe54]

Madge is an ugly playing footballer but he was used to plug one of the truly gaping holes in the train wreck that was our backline in the '18 season and he played his role right through to the GF.

Think about that a bit before you empty the sht can over the lads head - he was one kick away from being a premiership player and some good judges are convinced we did not get a fair shake in that game.

Always gives his all and it's not his fault that he keeps getting selected when it's an indictment on selection and recruitment that he hasn't been forced out of the team.

Point the finger of blame where it belongs.

 

[neilk]

Madge is an ugly playing footballer but he was used to plug one of the truly gaping holes in the train wreck that was our backline in the '18 season and he played his role right through to the GF.

Think about that a bit before you empty the sht can over the lads head - he was one kick away from being a premiership player and some good judges are convinced we did not get a fair shake in that game.

Always gives his all and it's not his fault that he keeps getting selected when it an indictment on selection and recruitment that he hasn't been forced out of the team.

Point the finger of blame where it belongs.

Did he play in the 2018 GF? I don't recall him, but may be wrong. I don't mind Madgen- gives his all.

 

[jonbe54]

Did he play in the 2018 GF? I don't recall him, but may be wrong. I don't mind Madgen- gives his all.

If memory serves he came in when Moore got the shakes over his fitness just before the game.

 

[neilk]

If memory serves he came in when Moore got the shakes over his fitness just before the game.

I think that was Goldsack.

 

[jonbe54]

I think that was Goldsack.

Not sure at this distance in time.

 

[Harry O]

Will be very interesting to see our tactics post matching the Daicos bid. Will we be happy to just take the extra 2 to 3 picks that GW has spoken about in the 40's and 50's with our remaning picks. Or will he look to bundle some of the 2021 picks left (and maybe one of the 2022 3rd rounders) to try and get in to the 2nd round this year and maybe an early 3rd rounder?
Could be a very interesting draft night as GW wheels and deals with his live trading with Dekka.

 

[jonbe54]

Will be very interesting to see our tactics post matching the Daicos bid. Will we be happy to just take the extra 2 to 3 picks that GW has spoken about in the 40's and 50's with our remaning picks. Or will he look to bundle some of the 2021 picks left (and maybe one of the 2022 3rd rounders) to try and get in to the 2nd round this year and maybe an early 3rd rounder?
Could be a very interesting draft night as GW wheels and deals with his live trading with Dekka.

If 'twere me I'd be looking at another future first if at all possible - the '22 draft is reputed to have a good crop of quality talls at the top end.

 

[gouki88]

Did he play in the 2018 GF? I don't recall him, but may be wrong. I don't mind Madgen- gives his all.

He played 4 games in 2018, none of which were finals. He played in the lead up to the finals (rounds 20-23)

 

[Crazy Tails]

Lets go through a points lesson shall we.

All you need to know about the AFL draft points system

There are two elite father-son prospects this year, Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy. Here’s how the points system will deliver them to their clubs on draft night.

www.theage.com.au

What a great article

 

[neilk]

Not sure at this distance in time.

Collingwood
B: Brayden Maynard, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tyson Goldsack, Travis Varcoe
C: Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Phillips
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Jordan De Goey
F: Josh Thomas, Mason Cox, Jaidyn Stephenson
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Brayden Sier, James Aish, Chris Mayne, Levi Greenwood
Emg: Jarryd Blair, Ben Reid, Callum Brown, Flynn Appleby

 

[jonbe54]

Collingwood
B: Brayden Maynard, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tyson Goldsack, Travis Varcoe
C: Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury, Tom Phillips
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Jordan De Goey
F: Josh Thomas, Mason Cox, Jaidyn Stephenson
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom
Int: Brayden Sier, James Aish, Chris Mayne, Levi Greenwood
Emg: Jarryd Blair, Ben Reid, Callum Brown, Flynn Appleby

All good must have been goldy

 

[partypie]

More Sydney. Brisbane's academy kids tend to be late picks, nothing in the first round in recent times.

Next year will be an exception for Brisbane with Ashcroft looking like he may go #1.

 

[Jen2310]

Next year will be an exception for Brisbane with Ashcroft looking like he may go #1.

Yeah. Their first FS prospect


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[Kappa]

If memory serves he came in when Moore got the shakes over his fitness just before the game.

Hmm.