Preview 2022 draft prospects

[sr36]

Well Howe and Murphy are Flankers for starters.

Even Johnson is 3rd tall type really.

No I mean when he'd crossed names out. 3 years time, were going to need new blokes all over the park. Talls are in a slightly better position for us in that regard than the other roles.

 

[sr36]

The main point I was making is Knight doesn't seem to rate the talls at our picks which I thought was interesting b/c he's a good judge of draft age KPP. A gap from Jefferson at 15 to Keeler in the 30s (off memory) leaves little.

I'm kinda surprised you're arguing about the need or otherwise for talls. You've spent a lot of this thread saying you'd take them b/c you see value there. It's also a bit strange to argue against selecting a draft age KPP based on the short term list profile for KPP. I mean you said earlier you don't draft mids for next year and that applies even more so to KPP. It's the same rationale.

I think if we have a KPP we rate we should bite the bullet because we've neglected draft age KPP at higher picks for far too long.

Absolutely to the last paragraph. If you ever have a tall you rate, you should strike, because the reality is they're always a bit worse value in terms of draft price, trade price and salary cap price - no matter how you're paying to acquire them, so if you rate a tall similarly in the draft, you should take the tall.

What I meant though is if we're drafting for needs, which I wouldn't, talls aren't actually a greater need at the moment in the short or medium term. The other roles are where we'll be hit harder by retirements sooner.

 

[Kirby]

Keeler is driving me crazy. Today I find just how bad his 2k time trial was as well as recruiters having doubts that he could even finish a training session and that most don't think he's worth the effort because his fitness is terrible and would take too long to get up to scratch. HOWEVER, I'm still told that he could be the next Buddy if he really wants it. Then I just read an interview with him and he states that he is well and truely aware that he needs to do a lot of work if he's going to make it. It's ripping me apart, lol

You’ve backed the wrong horse.

You want it more than him.

 

[Rusty Beam]

No I mean when he'd crossed names out. 3 years time, were going to need new blokes all over the park. Talls are in a slightly better position for us in that regard than the other roles.

But any talls we take now will take that whole 3 years or more to develop.

Those other positions that need to be filled will have a much shorter development timeframe.

 

[swoop42]

Swans have interest in weddle and Barnett with their early picks (14, 17)


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[sr36]

But any talls we take now will take that whole 3 years or more to develop.

Those other positions that need to be filled will have a much shorter development timeframe.

Show me a premiership team whose mids are under 25. You get the occasional all time great like Pendles or Selwood (or Naicos soon) who is a really important part of a premiership midfield at a young age, as you do with KPFs like Johnno Brown, but it's bloody rare for any contested role. The whole mids come on quicker, is because they can be bit part flankers for a fair while, but they're very rarely core mids of a top team when they're young - greats excepted.

All the great teams over the last 20 years have had incredible midfields, that generally couldn't carry the team to a flag until they were 25+. Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn, even this current Melbourne team with their great midfield - it wasn't great until they were 24-27 years old.

 

[Bianconeri]

That's inside mid even moreso for us. And flankers the retirements are coming sooner. We need players all over the park to step up if we're going to avoid a drop off in 3 years when a lot of the 2018 team will be cooked.

Every position has potential retirees over the next couple of years difference is we have a couple of guys in the vfl who could become inside mids, 5-7 that could become decent flankers no developing key forwards in the VFL though.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Show me a premiership team whose mids are under 25. You get the occasional all time great like Pendles or Selwood (or Naicos soon) who is a really important part of a premiership midfield at a young age, as you do with KPFs like Johnno Brown, but it's bloody rare for any contested role. The whole mids come on quicker, is because they can be bit part flankers for a fair while, but they're very rarely core mids of a top team when they're young - greats excepted.

All the great teams over the last 20 years have had incredible midfields, that generally couldn't carry the team to a flag until they were 25+. Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn, even this current Melbourne team with their great midfield - it wasn't great until they were 24-27 years old.

Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca were pretty pivotal cogs in Melbournes premiership success. Both were performing at a high level several years before then also.

There would be plenty of highly important midfielders under 25 in premiership teams through the years.

There would are also a fair few gun under 25 year old midfielders scattered through the comp who haven’t won a premiership. I would contend it’s not their respective age that’s prevented it… it’s the teams they’re in.

 

[sr36]

Every position has potential retirees over the next couple of years difference is we have a couple of guys in the vfl who could become inside mids, 5-7 that could become decent flankers no developing key forwards in the VFL though.

We actually only have Ruscoe as a VFL flanker. One of Kreuger or Johnson, whoever can't get a game, maybe even both will be better VFL depth than we'll have in other roles.

 

[sr36]

Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca were pretty pivotal cogs in Melbournes premiership success.

There would be plenty of highly important midfielders under 25 in premiership teams through the years.

They were 24 and 25. 6 and 7 years after being drafted and they're absolutely top shelf. That's about as early as you can hope for to have your drafted mid play a key role in a top team. JDG has taken 8-9 years to get there. Tom Mitchell took about 4 to be a senior player. It's a really tough role and they rarely come on quickly.

Hawk boys were 28+ when they got them there. Cats last flag 30+. Cats great team, as good as a midfield as you get 6-8 years after being drafted. Lions great mids 7-9 years. 24+ year old mids win flags. There are few exceptions and those exceptions tend to be greats

Mids take just as long as kpps. They just play lesser roles early.

 

[Mollythedolly]

Howe and Murphy aren't really kpp. Although can have a crack undersized. Its not ideal.

Roughly takes 5 years for a kpp to become consistent and good, by then many listed will be looking at retirement.

True but we added 2 this year (Frampton, McStay) and we added 3 (Kreuger, Johnson, Dean) last year so it seems the draft isn't the only source. I doubt we walk away from this draft without adding another though.

Well Howe and Murphy are Flankers for starters.

Even Johnson is 3rd tall type really.

They'd already had a line put through them, the point being it still left Moore, Frampton, Dean, McStay and Kreuger.

 

[Ingy]

Our 1st pick: Hewett, Hayes, or George

Our 2nd and 3rd picks: 2 of Ryan, Hustwaite, Keeler, Barnett, Cowan

4th pick: Richards or Dowling

 

[Fat Jesus]

Hayes, Keeler, Barnett if I haven't told you already.
No particular order.

That dick Hines better get it right.

 

[Jen2310]

Hayes, Keeler, Barnett if I haven't told you already.
No particular order.

That dick Hines better get it right.

That's too tall.

You accept what you are given, and nothing more. This is the rules set by good old Dekka lol

 

[swoop42]

It feels like every time a tall indigenous forward with a bit of x factor comes along people pin their hopes on them being the next Buddy.

If that player is a JUH then fair enough because his junior career saw him rated to the point he was taken at pick 1.

Trouble is Keeler isn't rated nearly as highly as either Buddy or JUH in their draft year and I don't think people like Twomey or Knightmare even had him inside their top 30 rankings.

There must be good reason for that surely.

While I wouldn't be against us selecting him I think people need to be realistic because the likelihood he goes on to become a dominant key forward at AFL level across the next 10 years would be very slim like it is for all key forward prospects who are taken in his expected draft range.

His best hope is probably as that athletic ruck/forward hybrid, while if we're after a KPP looking for one to fill a role in defence probably has a greater chance at success given the picks we have.

P.S- For those of you dreaming of Keeler being the steal of the draft it's always good to remember the likes of Spencer White

Spencer White

Age

30

Ht

196cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.5

1star

HB

2.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.0

5star

.

Ultimately there was a reason he went at pick 25 not 5 and like many key forward prospects before him in the end he was a bust also.

The next Buddy?

Spencer White has been compared to Lance Franklin as clubs circle the talented forward

www.afl.com.au

 

[Jelly Bean]

Would you rather have him and he fails or not have him and see him be Buddy 2.0?

Are they the only two options?

 

[unplugged]

Rookie Me says that Weddle, at 192cm, is a "tall defender" - despite the fact that is only a centimetre shorter than Ruscoe. Putrid selection if we take him at 16.

So short-sighted of you my friend.

He's 2cm taller than Howe and Howe won't be around forever.

Yes we've got Dean, Frampton etc but none are guaranteed to make it.

Hell, he could even pass Murphy within a year or two.

Get on the Weddle train Pragmatic Shill!

 

[manicpie]

You’ve backed the wrong horse.

You want it more than him.

That's exactly his problem

 

[manicpie]

So short-sighted of you my friend.

He's 2cm taller than Howe and Howe won't be around forever.

Yes we've got Dean, Frampton etc but none are guaranteed to make it.

Hell, he could even pass Murphy within a year or two.

Get on the Weddle train Pragmatic Shill!

That's a bit strange, you've got both Dean and Frampton as speculative, yet you have an untried and even more speculative player as their replacement

 

[Rusty Beam]

Mids take just as long as kpps. They just play lesser roles early.

Yeah we are going to have to disagree on this.

As I said guys there are plenty of current young guns like Andrew Bradshaw, Sam Walsh, Connor Rozzee, Bailey Smith, Noah Anderson, Chad Warner etc who would be key components to premierships if the teams they play in were actually premiership capable.

It’s not their age that is stopping them from the achievement.

 

[whiskeytown]

If we want that versatile tall… we should look at Gruzewski with our pick in the 20s

Good height, great hands, can play either end

Our 1st pick should be a sliding top 12 player (if possible)… or someone with some X factor…

Not another 18 year old KPD in Hayes… who just won’t get a game for years on end behind Moore, Frampton/Dean

If they wanted a longer term developing KPD in the twos… they should’ve just persevered with McMahon

 

[manicpie]

It feels like every time a tall indigenous forward with a bit of x factor comes along people pin their hopes on them being the next Buddy.

If that player is a JUH then fair enough because his junior career saw him rated to the point he was taken at pick 1.

Trouble is Keeler isn't rated nearly as highly as either Buddy or JUH in their draft year and I don't think people like Twomey or Knightmare even had him inside their top 30 rankings.

There must be good reason for that surely.

While I wouldn't be against us selecting him I think people need to be realistic because the likelihood he goes on to become a dominant key forward at AFL level across the next 10 years would be very slim like it is for all key forward prospects who are taken in his expected draft range.

His best hope is probably as that athletic ruck/forward hybrid, while if we're after a KPP looking for one to fill a role in defence probably has a greater chance at success given the picks we have.

P.S- For those of you dreaming of Keeler being the steal of the draft it's always good to remember the likes of Spencer White.

Ultimately there was a reason he went at pick 25 not 5 and like many key forward prospects before him in the end he was a bust also.

The next Buddy?

Spencer White has been compared to Lance Franklin as clubs circle the talented forward

www.afl.com.au

That's all well and good but Spencer White was nowhere near what Keeler can produce. You can have a rating system but it doesn't cover pure talent. On pure talent, Keeler is easily up there with JUH. The only thing holding Keeler back is that he doesn't train hard enough and do the extra work that's required. I disagree that he couldn't become a dominant KF for the next 10 years, as long he's prepared to put in the work. You are pigeon holing him based on his average fitness, if you can't see how far his projection is. In an AFL system, he'll be fine and 17 other clubs will be crying in their cornflakes for the loss, as is always the case, and one of those clubs will be us, as usual. Just take a punt

 

[Apex36]

That's too tall.

You accept what you are given, and nothing more. This is the rules set by good old Dekka lol

Brown, Reid, Dawes.

Was that draft too tall or did it set us up for a premiership?

The idea that taking 3 tall players in a draft with a list of 44 is “too tall” is nonsense.

 

[sr36]

Yeah we are going to have to disagree on this.

As I said guys there are plenty of current young guns like Andrew Bradshaw, Sam Walsh, Connor Rozzee, Bailey Smith, Noah Anderson, Chad Warner etc who would be key components to premierships if the teams they play in were actually premiership capable.

It’s not their age that is stopping them from the achievement.

I agree with those blokes, but they are the same age as the Kings who would sit just as easily on a premiership dais. Just as Trav, Dawes and Brown did on ours. I just think it's a myth that KPP take longer to develop than inside mids.

 

[Harry O]

So short-sighted of you my friend.

He's 2cm taller than Howe and Howe won't be around forever.

Yes we've got Dean, Frampton etc but none are guaranteed to make it.

Hell, he could even pass Murphy within a year or two.

Get on the Weddle train Pragmatic Shill!

Correct
I would be very happy with Tom Stewart at 191. Quality is quality. And apparently Weddle can play tall and small like a Stewart or Clement

I think putrid might reflect more on the person saying that