Preview 2022 draft prospects

[manicpie]

I agree with those blokes, but they are the same age as the Kings who would sit just as easily on a premiership dais. Just as Trav, Dawes and Brown did on ours. I just think it's a myth that KPP take longer to develop than inside mids.

I agree, it's probably more the fact that we see midfielders debut sooner than most KPP, but even the best mids take at least 3 or 4 years to continue to develop, just as KPP.

 

[manicpie]

Correct
I would be very happy with Tom Stewart at 191. Quality is quality. And apparently Weddle can play tall and small like a Stewart or Clement

I think putrid might reflect more on the person saying that

I don't think Stewart has ever had to mind an opponent. To put him in the same class as clement is like chalk and cheese. clement was one of the best 1 on 1 defenders I've seen. Stewart is a loose man in defence who doesn't have the same impact when he is forced to defend all game

 

[sr36]

Brown, Reid, Dawes.

Was that draft too tall or did it set us up for a premiership?

The idea that taking 3 tall players in a draft with a list of 44 is “too tall” is nonsense.

Finding spots for them all in the vfl is the issue.

 

[sr36]

I agree, it's probably more the fact that we see midfielders debut sooner than most KPP, but even the best mids take at least 3 or 4 years to continue to develop, just as KPP.

And even after 3 or 4 years, the ones who are already top liners tend to be the handball receive guys rather than the ball sniffers. Judd, Selwood, Oliver and Wines being the exceptions in terms of early big contested ball winners. Mature bodies win contests.

 

[Apex36]

Finding spots for them all in the vfl is the issue.

Is it? If you think we can’t find a spot for a tall forward, tall defender and a ruck in the VFL I suggest you go and re-check our list profile.

 

[sr36]

Is it? If you think we can’t find a spot for a tall forward, tall defender and a ruck in the VFL I suggest you go and re-check our list profile.

If we are fit, we'll have something like:
Cox, Begg, Johnson, Frampton, Dean Kelly in the VFL team already. 2 more tops. That's what I'd like. Two talls, 1 inside mid (Hustwaite) 1 speedy Flanker or 1 tall, 1 insider, 2 flankers which is how I think it'll go, if there is an inside mid we like.

 

[Harry O]

I don't think Stewart has ever had to mind an opponent. To put him in the same class as clement is like chalk and cheese. clement was one of the best 1 on 1 defenders I've seen. Stewart is a loose man in defence who doesn't have the same impact when he is forced to defend all game

Haha.

That’s an elongated way of saying I don’t watch much footy

 

[well left]

If we are fit, we'll have something like:
Cox, Begg, Johnson, Frampton, Dean Kelly in the VFL team already. 2 more tops. That's what I'd like. Two talls, 1 inside mid (Hustwaite) 1 speedy Flanker or 1 tall, 1 insider, 2 flankers which is how I think it'll go, if there is an inside mid we like.

I reckon we need 2 minimum like you have said but like Apex I wouldn’t think it a disaster if we grabbed 3.

From your list above I think one of Dean or Frampton will be in the 1’s and probably Murphy will be VFL as a third tall. So depending on where Kelly plays we could use a defender.

Up forward Johnson should be a third tall, not a KPF. If Kelly’s not forward we’ve really got nothing developing apart from Begg resting and rotating with a Cox/Cameron/Kreuger.




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[sr36]

I reckon we need 2 minimum like you have said but like Apex I wouldn’t think it a disaster if we grabbed 3.

From your list above I think one of Dean or Frampton will be in the 1’s and probably Murphy will be VFL as a third tall. So depending on where Kelly plays we could use a defender.

Up forward Johnson should be a third tall, not a KPF. If Kelly’s not forward we’ve really got nothing developing apart from Begg resting and rotating with a Cox/Cameron/Kreuger.




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My view is that last year we used the VFL as an understudy system. They generally played the roles that they would come in to play in the AFL. Johnson is ideally a third tall, but if he doesn't get a game in the seniors, he also needs to be the understudy for Kreuger as well as Mihocek (I'm assuming a one ruck - McStay/Kreuger/Mihocek set up) - as an 18 year old kpf taken at our picks is really unlikely to be ready to play a role. Flip the names Johnson and Kreuger if it's Johnson who gets a game. But yes, I'd love us to add a KPF.

 

[Kirby]

Posters are obsessing about talls but my view is it is no good drafting them just because they are tall if they aren't going to be good enough.

 

[Mick F]

Finding spots for them all in the vfl is the issue.

True they won’t develop much in the pocket or on the bench.

When recruiting players we have given an undertaking to provide them with the opportunity to be a fine AFL footballer. A commitment that should not be taken lightly.

 

[Apex36]

If we are fit, we'll have something like:
Cox, Begg, Johnson, Frampton, Dean Kelly in the VFL team already. 2 more tops. That's what I'd like. Two talls, 1 inside mid (Hustwaite) 1 speedy Flanker or 1 tall, 1 insider, 2 flankers which is how I think it'll go, if there is an inside mid we like.

One of Frampton or Dean will be playing seniors, Kelly is undersized, Johnson isn’t a KPP, and with an extra bench spot there’s every chance we go in with 2 rucks, even with the addition of McStay.

Sorry, but you’re wrong on this.

 

[sr36]

One of Frampton or Dean will be playing seniors, Kelly is undersized, Johnson isn’t a KPP, and with an extra bench spot there’s every chance we go in with 2 rucks, even with the addition of McStay.

Sorry, but you’re wrong on this.

I might be wrong, but I'll be wrong alongside Dekka and GW. I'd bet a lot that we don't take 3 talls, or in the near future shift to such a high percentage of our list as talls.

 

[brockbruiser]

We don't need to stress about talls, nor do we have to draft them. It's a perfectly viable strategy to acquire them through trade if the quality of talls isn't available, which we've done this year with Frampton and McStay.

I really like the bio of Waddle, sounds like the perfect Jeremy Howe

38

Jeremy Howe

Age

34

Ht

190cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.1

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

21.5

5star

K

16.5

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

6.5

5star

T

2.0

3star

MG

433.3

5star

D

15.2

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

6.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

replacement, who is so crucial for our backline.

 

[FIGJAM]

Posters are obsessing about talls but my view is it is no good drafting them just because they are tall if they aren't going to be good enough.

Fully agreed and if the best aerialists are gone, get a well rounded mid.

But we need aerial quality, no doubt, as we got smashed there in the 2018 GF and got beaten in 2 finals in 2022 (just!) again due to us getting pipped in the air.

Nice to have McStay on board and we'll be hoping for some positive contribution from Kreug, Framp, Dean etc. but they're handy types.

Thus, getting a good aerialist this draft with our first pick would be ideal.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

One of Frampton or Dean will be playing seniors, Kelly is undersized, Johnson isn’t a KPP, and with an extra bench spot there’s every chance we go in with 2 rucks, even with the addition of McStay.

Sorry, but you’re wrong on this.

Not to mention that Kelly and Kreuger are highly injury prone and Dean, even assuming he’s good enough as a rookie draftee, has never played a game due to… you guessed it… a series of injuries in an otherwise quite good season for our list on the injury front.

Constructing a list in a manner that assumes a lot of guys who’ve never been consistently healthy are suddenly going to become so, is fraught with danger. Not only that, it comes with significant opportunity cost.

 

[manicpie]

Haha.

That’s an elongated way of saying I don’t watch much footy

Especially not Geelong. Do you watch Geelong every week?

 

[KinderSmock]

Brown, Reid, Dawes.

Was that draft too tall or did it set us up for a premiership?

The idea that taking 3 tall players in a draft with a list of 44 is “too tall” is nonsense.

It's probably best to assess "too tall" across a three year span or something. Across three or four years, you want an equal distribution of heights and positions.

But one draft of just talls or smalls or mediums is not a worry and can be used, as you have showed with the Brown, Reid Dawes example, to set up success.

 

[KinderSmock]

Not to mention that Kelly and Kreuger are highly injury prone and Dean, even assuming he’s good enough as a rookie draftee, has never played a game due to… you guessed it… a series of injuries in an otherwise quite good season for our list on the injury front.

Constructing a list in a manner that assumes a lot of guys who’ve never been consistently healthy are suddenly going to become so, is fraught with danger. Not only that, it comes with significant opportunity cost.

The best talent is being injury free. We were healthier this year but some players have worrying histories.

 

[cityslick1]

FWIW I was not a big Bont fan going into his draft; many had him comfortably top-five and I probably would have had him 8-12 and I was quite obviously wrong.

Hustwaite has some good traits, I am not down on him but some traits in U18’s clearly translate to AFL and others can be hit-or-miss.

Burst pace almost always translates well. Evasiveness on that Pendles/Nick Daicos level always seems to translate.

Strength to stand up in a tackle can be a double edged sword, on the one hand it works well in juniors, and Hustwaite at his size should also be able to use it to effect against bigger bodies on average in the AFL. On the downside it is generally less of a weapon against men, and if you can win with brute strength in U18’s you don’t always develop other areas of your game which you may need, especially if you don’t walk straight into your preferred position. Brute strength didn’t carve out a career for Rupert Wills, and watching Hustwaite’s highlights reminds me of Tyler Brown in the way he can plant his feet and use his hip strength.

Hustwaite might be lucky if he comes to the Pies, as we’re likely to play him as a mid in the VFL under Fly rather than force him to play on a flank.

I’m not going to bang on about Hustwaite any longer. I like him but have some causes for concern, and we’ll see on Monday or Tuesday what Hine thinks of him. If we pick him he’ll have my full support in any case.

100% agree with all of this

 

[cityslick1]

I reckon they are banking on Macrae and Reef a bit there.

Not sold on Macrae. Seems v vanilla, one paced, low impact. Hope I’m wrong, but 2020 is looking like quite a weak draft across the board… Except maybe for Holmes and Bowey selections, which - sadly / embarrassingly for Derek - were taken straight after Jack

 

[RobJD]

If you think we can’t find a spot for a tall forward, tall defender and a ruck in the VFL I suggest you go and re-check our list profile.

My view is that last year we used the VFL as an understudy system. They generally played the roles that they would come in to play in the AFL. Johnson is ideally a third tall, but if he doesn't get a game in the seniors, he also needs to be the understudy for Kreuger as well as Mihocek (I'm assuming a one ruck - McStay/Kreuger/Mihocek set up) - as an 18 year old kpf taken at our picks is really unlikely to be ready to play a role. Flip the names Johnson and Kreuger if it's Johnson who gets a game. But yes, I'd love us to add a KPF.

Agree, I'd like us to take at least one KPF, I'd even consider two as we're likely to develop at least one of them as a KPD down the track. My preference is for us to take the best available with our first pick and then target some players - something like:
Pick 1: Hewett/Allen
and then:
One two way runner (as future replacements for WHE and Sidey) - say: Binns, Dowling
One or two Forward/Mids (as future replacement for Elliot) - say: George, Burgiel, Jones, Magor
One or two Key forwards - say Keeler, Jefferson, Lemmy, Scully, Gruzewski (might be pushing as a KPF)

My "realistic" draft would be something like:
Live Pick 16: Allen
Live Pick 25: Jones
Live Pick 28: Keeler
Live Pick 51: Scully

 

[Apex36]

I might be wrong, but I'll be wrong alongside Dekka and GW. I'd bet a lot that we don't take 3 talls, or in the near future shift to such a high percentage of our list as talls.

Doubt Hine and Wright would be concerned about taking 3 talls if they’re the best available, particularly given Hine has done it before. That’s an unlikely scenario in itself though, so I guess you can claim to stand alongside them for your entirely different reasoning if it makes you feel good.

 

[sr36]

Doubt Hine and Wright would be concerned about taking 3 talls if they’re the best available, particularly given Hine has done it before. That’s an unlikely scenario in itself though, so I guess you can claim to stand alongside them for your entirely different reasoning if it makes you feel good.

The more significant part which I'm betting on is the percentage of the list - into the future. It's no longer a list of 52 or whatever it was. You can't carry 15 guys who aren't AFL relevant anymore. you need a more balanced list, without carrying too many of one type. I think we're pretty close to that balance.

 

[peter9789]

Having read a lot of difference phantom draft and peoples opinions on here this is what I would love to see

Our first pick: Lewis Hayes - we need some quality coming through in KPD. Most of our current KPD outside of Moore are speculative (Dean), no good (Kelly) , and depth (plays only if injuries) Frampton. We need to pull the trigger on Hayes if he is there around our first pick.

As a fallback I wouldn't be opposed if we took Barnett if Hayes was gone - looks like a genuine tap ruckman with good agility and nice size. We need someone coming through with Cox close to the end.

For the latter picks it becomes a bit more speculative

• Jacob Ryan seems like we are narrowing in on him and I'm ok with this at our late 20's pick
• Mitch Szybkowski I like a lot
• Joe Ricjards For a late roughy at our pick 51 or where ever it lands if he lasts.

Super keen to see what Hine turns to at this draft. Surely he addresses list needs (Key positions players) firstly and then picks best available.

Whoever he picks when they pull on the Black n' White they are mine and I will get behind them.

Go PIES