Preview 2022 draft prospects

[Scodog10]

I'm not commenting on the player, I don't know him from a bar of soap, just the ideas that 2cm difference in the height of the top of the head between McDonald and Cadman is relevant and the idea that you have to play like Hawkins and not Cameron to be a star forward who justifies the Number 1 draft position.

I think Manic is struggling with the concept of height being completely irrelevant v wingspan and leap for a KPF.

Like you I don’t really know Cadman enough to be commenting on him as a prospect, but what I can comment on is that the fascination of 197cm being KP and 194cm not is ****ing bonkers. If the 197cm guy has a 190cm wingspan and no leap he’s next door to useless against a guy like Moore. If the 194cm guy has an elite vertical and 200cm wingspan he’s more a KPF type that can impact v the modern KPD.

That’s before you even get to competitiveness, personality and workrate…

 

[Apex36]

Every list is in transition, with limited list spots and pressure to stay on top I think it’s all the more reason to stay away from speculative players and draft players with a higher chance of making it.

Every year under Wright we’ve added a KPP through trade so I’m not worried about ever running out of them.

It’s not about running out of them, it’s about developing some high quality ones within our system. And I’m not talking about Hail Marys like McMahon, who should never have been selected in the second round, I’m talking about taking a risk on a guy like Keeler, who’s NQR as it stands, but also has a huge ceiling.
I get massive Balta vibes from him. In the right system I firmly believe he could become anything, but he’ll need 2-3 years at a minimum of development.

 

[sr36]

It’s not about running out of them, it’s about developing some high quality ones within our system. And I’m not talking about Hail Marys like McMahon, who should never have been selected in the second round, I’m talking about taking a risk on a guy like Keeler, who’s NQR as it stands, but also has a huge ceiling.
I get massive Balta vibes from him. In the right system I firmly believe he could become anything, but he’ll need 2-3 years at a minimum of development.

Doesn't really matter how we get them. Cats and Tigers haven't drafted and developed a quality tall forward since 2006. Balta may become one, but he's not there yet.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

I think Manic is struggling with the concept of height being completely irrelevant v wingspan and leap for a KPF.

Like you I don’t really know Cadman enough to be commenting on him as a prospect, but what I can comment on is that the fascination of 197cm being KP and 194cm not is ******* bonkers. If the 197cm guy has a 190cm wingspan and no leap he’s next door to useless against a guy like Moore. If the 194cm guy has an elite vertical and 200cm wingspan he’s more a KPF type that can impact v the modern KPD.

That’s before you even get to competitiveness, personality and workrate…

Mihocek at 192 can take a mark but is also uncanny on the ground. Curnow at a similar size is even better. Riewolt at 191cm has always been cunning enough to win 1v1s against most. All 3 are good or better overhead marks imo. While buddy at 199 struggles at times and Grundy at 202 struggles with the flight of the ball in the air.
Timing your jump, having good hands, strong arms, leap, work rate, repeat efforts and wing span are all more important then height by a long way in term of KPF traits.

 

[Bear Nectar]

For those dreaming of us selecting a key forward prospect with one of our draft selections I thought I'd take a look at what the original price was for the leading tall/key forward goal scorer at each club this season.

Adelaide - Taylor Walker pick 75 (NSW scholarship program) 2007 national draft
Brisbane - Joe Daniher pick 10 (father / son selection) 2010 national draft
Carlton - Charlie Curnow pick 12 2015 national draft
Collingwood - Brody Mihocek pick 22 2018 rookie draft
Essendon - Peter Wright pick 8 2014 national draft
Fremantle - Rory Lobb pick 29 2013 national draft
Geelong - Tom Hawkins pick 41 (father / son selection) 2006 national draft
Gold Coast - Mabior Chol pick 30 2016 rookie draft
Greater Western Sydney - Jesse Hogan pick 2 2012 mini draft
Hawthorn - Mitch Lewis pick 76 2016 national draft
Melbourne - Ben Brown pick 47 2013 national draft
North Melbourne - Nick Larkey pick 73 2016 national draft
Port Adelaide - Todd Marshall pick 16 2016 national draft
Richmond - Tom Lynch pick 11 2010 national draft
St Kilda - Max King pick 4 2018 national draft
Sydney - Lance Franklin pick 5 2004 national draft
West Coast - Josh Kennedy pick 4 2005 national draft
Western Bulldogs - Aaron Naughton pick 9 2017 national draft

Quick summation.

11 out of the 18 players were first round or equivalent selections.
To date 4 out of those 11 players have been part of a premiership winning team.
Only 1 of the other 7 were taken in the 2nd round of a national draft.
To date only 1 player of the 7 not selected in the first round have been part of a premiership.
2016 provided a bumper crop with 4 players taken that year becoming their sides leading tall/key forward goal scorer in 2022.

Very interesting - thanks
What this tells me is that if you're wanting a good KPF, you need to get them in the first round rather than speculating in later rounds. If I think of others who should be on the list (Harry McKay, Ben King, Charlie Dixon, Jez Cameron) the really good players were taken early.
Checkers, Lewis and Chol were the notable exceptions- Brody was recruited as a KPD while Chol is more of a ruck-fwd.
Given that the good KPFs might be gone by pick 16, perhaps we should be looking at state leagues for KPFs via the rookie draft?
Doesn't mean we'll get a champion but if we can get a solid replacement at Mihocek's level I'll be happy with that.

 

[Apex36]

Doesn't really matter how we get them. Cats and Tigers haven't drafted and developed a quality tall forward since 2006. Balta may become one, but he's not there yet.

I’m not specifically talking about forwards. The discussion was KPP. And Balta has shown he’s a quality swing man at a minimum. If he hadn’t done his ACL he’d likely be even further developed than he currently is.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Mihocek at 192 can take a mark but is also uncanny on the ground. Curnow at a similar size is even better. Riewolt at 191cm has always been cunning enough to win 1v1s against most. All 3 are good or better overhead marks imo. While buddy at 199 struggles at times and Grundy at 202 struggles with the flight of the ball in the air.
Timing your jump, having good hands, strong arms, leap, work rate, repeat efforts and wing span are all more important then height by a long way in term of KPF traits.

Riewoldt an absolute champion.
Put him on the wing.

Just imagine us with him in our team. Beast

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Fat Jesus a little pissed today. Beer and Whisky.

Sadly enough I was talking him down last time I was drinking on bigfooty. Most on here think he is a gun and I agree although he is not the player he use to be.

 

[Pistol Night]

Riewoldt an absolute champion.
Put him on the wing.

Just imagine us with him in our team. Beast

He very nearly was at one point

 

[whiskeytown]

Every list is in transition, with limited list spots and pressure to stay on top I think it’s all the more reason to stay away from speculative players and draft players with a higher chance of making it.

Every year under Wright we’ve added a KPP through trade so I’m not worried about ever running out of them.

Scodog is not the only one that has talked down taking an 18 year old KPD in the draft… a few of us have

The club has over the past 10 years shown a tendency to trade in mature age, ready to play defenders… rather than spend 1st rd picks

Howe (had played both ends), Dunn, Roughead, Mihocek (ended up being a forward), and now Frampton

Moore, Kelly and Quaynor were inherited…

aside from scharenberg with a top 10 pick… and Reid before that… aside from Dean it’s been a string of 190cm plus utility types in McClarty, Johnson, Begg taken outside a first round pick or as a rookie or mid season draftee

Not to mention thr Cox, the ex basketballers and Irish KPP experiment… that mostly failed

Unless Fly particularly requests Hayes… I can’t see Hine using our first on him

The fact that the list is now contending… says to me that they will lure KPP types over rather than spend 2-4 years praying on kids to develop

 

[manicpie]

Doesn't really matter how we get them. Cats and Tigers haven't drafted and developed a quality tall forward since 2006. Balta may become one, but he's not there yet.

Doesn't that then put Cadman in an elite class, big risk on an undersized lead up forward.

 

[Apex36]

Scodog is not the only one that has talked down taking an 18 year old KPD in the draft… a few of us have

The club has over the past 10 years shown a tendency to trade in mature age, ready to play defenders… rather than spend 1st rd picks

Howe (had played both ends), Dunn, Roughead, Mihocek (ended up being a forward), and now Frampton

Moore, Kelly and Quaynor were inherited…

aside from scharenberg with a top 10 pick… and Reid before that… aside from Dean it’s been a string of 190cm plus utility types in McClarty, Johnson, Begg taken outside a first round pick or as a rookie or mid season draftee

Not to mention thr Cox, the ex basketballers and Irish KPP experiment… that mostly failed

Unless Fly particularly requests Hayes… I can’t see Hine using our first on him

The fact that the list is now contending… says to me that they will lure KPP types over rather than spend 2-4 years praying on kids to develop

Berg was never a KPP. He was another 190cm utility who was forced to play taller than he should have been.

 

[sr36]

Doesn't that then put Cadman in an elite class, big risk on an undersized lead up forward.

I think pick 1 is a big risk on any marking forward. Buddy and N Riewoldt were the two best players taken in their draft years. Have there been any other marking forwards that you'd say that about? Maybe Hawkins or Kennedy? I think Max King might end up joining them, but it's not many 2 to 5 in 35 years of drafting. And far less still if you're using your type of key forward.

 

[JOELY]

Early draft prospect Lachie Cowan reflects on ‘wasted talent’ Tassie trend – and how 19th team could help flip script

Two teams circling Tassie’s top draft prospect who’s keen to break ‘wasted talent’ trend

www.foxsports.com.au

Cowan has been linked to us as well and I think he's a good fit, but knowing he will probaby leave once a Tassie team comes in would that come into our thinking?

 

[VinnieB]

He was touted as a potential number 1 pick at some stage from memory? Slipped away a bit

I'm wary of a key forward whose height gives him a significant advantage in junior footy. That is unless he has a few other exceptional qualities.

You look at kids like Mitchell Lewis who were never considered a high draft pick at any stage, but showed some exceptional qualities (including contested marking) in a couple of games. I think that's the type you can work with and has plenty of improvement to come.

I think I read here about some of the really promising key forwards being either 1st round or way down to 3rd or 4th round. I know it's just generalising, however, I wonder whether key forwards who were once ranked extremely highly and drop off because they lost their main advantage (height/size) and really couldn't continue to produce. If that's the case, playing in the AFL will be even more difficult.

That's why I think Keeler may be worth a try. High risk, but very high reward. He has a number of attributes but hasn't really put it all together and has never been talked of as a top 5 or 10 player.

 

[Pistol Night]

I'm wary of a key forward whose height gives him a significant advantage in junior footy. That is unless he has a few other exceptional qualities.

You look at kids like Mitchell Lewis who were never considered a high draft pick at any stage, but showed some exceptional qualities (including contested marking) in a couple of games. I think that's the type you can work with and has plenty of improvement to come.

I think I read here about some of the really promising key forwards being either 1st round or way down to 3rd or 4th round. I know it's just generalising, however, I wonder whether key forwards who were once ranked extremely highly and drop off because they lost their main advantage (height/size) and really couldn't continue to produce. If that's the case, playing in the AFL will be even more difficult.

That's why I think Keeler may be worth a try. High risk, but very high reward. He has a number of attributes but hasn't really put it all together and has never been talked of as a top 5 or 10 player.

Yeah agree. Jack Watts, Jono Patton and Tom Boyd were all going to be all time greats based on their junior form. Ended well. Find the diamond in the rough like Lewis.

 

[Bianconeri]

It’s not about running out of them, it’s about developing some high quality ones within our system. And I’m not talking about Hail Marys like McMahon, who should never have been selected in the second round, I’m talking about taking a risk on a guy like Keeler, who’s NQR as it stands, but also has a huge ceiling.
I get massive Balta vibes from him. In the right system I firmly believe he could become anything, but he’ll need 2-3 years at a minimum of development.

I think we’ll aim to eliminate risk rather than go for the highest reward with our picks but if Keeler is anything like Balta I’d love for us to pick him up.

 

[sr36]

Yeah agree. Jack Watts, Jono Patton and Tom Boyd were all going to be all time greats based on their junior form. Ended well. Find the diamond in the rough like Lewis.

The flip side is that if you want a big power forward, good luck getting one who isn't too big and powerful for his u18 opponents.

 

[Apex36]

I think we’ll aim to eliminate risk rather than go for the highest reward with our picks but if Keeler is anything like Balta I’d love for us to pick him up.

Very different players stylistically, Balta being naturally more aggressive, but both coming out of juniors look like they could be anything with the right development imo.

 

[Fat Jesus]

I doubt Derek Hine is picking our next players. I think Wright and McRae have a big say. Interesting to hear others thoughts.

Hine just narrows it down to several.

In the past Ed and Bucks had a say.


I may not have a clue but this is what I think.

 

[manicpie]

The flip side is that if you want a big power forward, good luck getting one who isn't too big and powerful for his u18 opponents.

I'm not the one who has been screaming for a big power forward, I'm very happy with what we have. I would also be over the moon if we got Cadman but I am not one who thinks you need a big power forward

 

[sr36]

I doubt Derek Hine is picking our next players. I think Wright and McRae have a big say. Interesting to hear others thoughts.

Hine just narrows it down to several.

In the past Ed and Bucks had a say.


I may not have a clue but this is what I think.

My assumption is that coach and list manager would have a say in type and attributes they want, but recruiters would choose the names. Surely that's their job.

 

[Fat Jesus]

My assumption is that coach and list manager would have a say in type and attributes they want, but recruiters would choose the names. Surely that's their job.

I agree somewhat although I think it runs deeper. Tom Mitchell screams a Graham Wright decision.
As I said."who knows"

 

[sr36]

I agree somewhat although I think it runs deeper. Tom Mitchell screams a Graham Wright decision.
As I said."who knows"

I meant the kids. I think coaches and GW would have the biggest say in experienced AFL players.

 

[VinnieB]

The flip side is that if you want a big power forward, good luck getting one who isn't too big and powerful for his u18 opponents.

As long as they keep getting better. Is a power forward someone who is tall and physically developed? McCartin, Paton, Boyd?

Apart from Hawkins’ size, most of the better key forwards these days seem to be tall and fairly athletic. They probably have relatively good endurance and quick off a step or 2.